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In this edition of Intel Insights, Leighton discusses the recent conflict between Israel and Hamas, providing background information on the situation and analyzing the factors that led to the attack. He explains how Hamas meticulously planned the attack, using various weapons and tactics to target Israeli locations. Leighton also highlights the intelligence failures on the part of Israel, which resulted in a significant number of casualties and hostages. He delves into the history and ideology of Hamas, as well as the complex dynamics in the Middle East involving Iran, Hezbollah, and other regional actors. Leighton emphasizes the potential for a wider war and the challenges Israel faces in addressing the crisis in Gaza while avoiding a protracted conflict.
Episode Timestamps:
Overview of the planning and tactics used by Hamas in their attack on Israel {01:30} Background on Hamas and their goals to destroy Israel and establish an Islamic society {03:00} History of Gaza and its occupation by Israel and subsequent takeover by Hamas {05:15} Involvement of Iran in supporting both Hamas and Hezbollah {10:25} Deployment of US military forces to support Israel and the possibility of a wider war {14:30} Challenges in achieving a lasting peace in the Middle East {16:05} Potential consequences of a Hamas takeover {18:40}Connect with Cedric:
https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton
www.intelinsightspodcast.com
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In this edition of Intel Insights, Leighton discusses the recent plane crash that killed Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, along with other top leaders. The cause of the crash is still unknown, but there are suspicions of an on-board explosion or sabotage. This incident highlights the instability in Russia, with recent dismissals of military leaders and challenges to Putin's power. The Wagner Group, a paramilitary organization, had been sanctioned by the West and played a significant role in conflicts in countries like Ukraine and Syria. Russia now faces uncertainty as it tries to fill the void left by the Wagner Group and maintain its influence in various regions.
Episode Timestamps:
A plane crash that resulted in the presumed death of Yevgeny Prigohzin and other Wagner Group members {0:36} The instability of Russia after the decapitation of the Wagner Group {1:51} The Wagner Group’s popularity in other countries, and how that affected Putin and the Russian state {6:51} Putin’s plan to exact his revenge against Prigohzin after the rebellion in June 2023 {8:14} The type of man and leader Prigohzin was, and the support he was able to generate as a result of his ‘accomplishments’ {10:22} What is next for Russia {12:50} Dramatic changes that may occur on the battlefield for Russia {17:49}Connect with Cedric:
https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton
www.intelinsightspodcast.com
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In this episode of Intel Insights, Leighton discusses the recent coup in Niger and its potential global repercussions. Niger, a resource-rich country in West Africa, is one of the poorest nations in the world. Its significant uranium reserves have attracted the interest of various countries, including China and France. The coup aims to address the country's decline and the perceived exploitation of its resources by foreign companies. The complex history of Niger, including colonial rule and ethnic tensions, has contributed to its current political situation. The coup has also raised concerns about the stability of the region and the impact on counterterrorism efforts.
The United States and France have a military presence in Niger, but the coup has strained relations and raised questions about the effectiveness of their missions. The involvement of Russia and its proxy, the Wagner Group, adds another layer of complexity to the situation, as they seek to gain control over Niger's uranium reserves and challenge Western influence. The outcome of the coup and the scramble for resources in Niger will have significant implications for global markets and geopolitical dynamics.
Episode Timestamps:
Why certain people are very interested in Niger right now {1:43} Increasing criticism and resentment surrounding the Areva and OranoCycle operations in Niger {6:19} The chaotic history of Niger, and how it came to be what it is today {8:09} The initial development of a military base by the U.S. in Agadez, Niger, and what has evolved since then {16:35} Assessing the current mission of the U.S. in Niger {18:43} The many ‘Russian flags’ showing up in Niger, which could lead to increased control of the uranium production there {21:50}Connect with Cedric:
https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton
www.intelinsightspodcast.com
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“China hacks Japan’s defense networks.” -Washington Post
In this episode of Intel Insights, Leighton focuses on the great hack that happened to Japan, the increased aggressiveness from a rising China over the years, and Japan’s decision to create a stronger national cyber strategy with cyber command. Hear about the major factors that have contributed to Japan executing a new national security strategy, such as increasing their defense budget to 2% of their GDP, and developing a cyber defense network that can basically eliminate cyber attacks.
In the past, Japan didn’t have specific laws covering leaks of military data and espionage, but they are now implementing mechanisms to protect classified information and working to create a truly impermeable cyber defense network.
Episode Timestamps:
A recent occurrence that involved a special unit from China hacking into Japan’s defense networks {0:44} Other major hacks that have happened in recent years {2:48} The creation of the unit 61419 (also known as TIC), which was put in place by the People’s Liberation Army {4:05} Japan’s decision to establish policies regarding cyberattacks with help from the United States {5:06} How Tokyo created a new national cyber strategy + cyber command {7:44} The increased aggressiveness of China in recent years, especially in cyberspace {11:01} Six major factors that have contributed to Japan implementing a new national security strategy {15:14} Japan’s plan to create a new information warfare organization as part of their national security strategy {16:35}Connect with Cedric:
https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton
www.intelinsightspodcast.com
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In the previous episode of Intel Insights, Leighton discussed India's Siliguri Corridor and how China's moves in Bhutan could impact India's control of the Siliguri Corridor. Another important corridor (this time found in Europe) is the Suwalki Gap, or the Suwalki Corridor.
The Suwalki Gap connects Russia's enclave of Kaliningrad with Belarus, which is a big ally of Russia. The Suwalki Gap is sometimes called the most dangerous place in the world. More recently, it’s become even more significant due to its unique location - especially since Wagner Group mercenaries have been seen near this gap.
This episode focuses on several key historical events that led to the formation of the Suwalki Gap, like the multiple partitions of Poland, and how Kaliningrad came about. Learn why the Suwalki Gap is extremely critical for Russian security, the vulnerability that exists for both sides, and what to expect regarding the economic aspect, cyber space, increased military incursions, and more for these countries involved.
Episode Timestamps:
Key historical events surrounding the creation of the Suwalki Gap {02:10} Why the Suwalki Gap has become critical to Russian security {10:40} Reasons why there is vulnerability for both sides on the Suwalki Gap {13:34} The relationship between Russia, Belarus, and Poland {15:40} What to expect regarding the economic pressure placed on Russia, cyber attacks from Russia and Belarus, increased military incursions and border vigilance {18:00}Connect with Cedric:
https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton
www.intelinsightspodcast.com
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The country of Bhutan is currently at the center of a major dispute, and has involved the countries of China and India. With the conflict happening between these powerful countries, there is a great possibility that this could boil over into a full-blown war.
In this episode of Intel Insights, Leighton focuses on the Land of the Thunder Dragon, and how all of the countries along the Himalayan Ridge are actually playing a part in global politics. Learn about the strategic location of Bhutan, three important things the Chinese have claimed, a crucial area known as the Doklam Plateau, and the history of war between China and India over border issues.
While this area is in a desolate place that few people have visited, it’s also one we need to pay attention to. The Land of the Thunder Dragon has a great deal of strategic importance - not only could the balance of power in Asia be upset, but ultimately, the balance of power in the world.
Episode Timestamps:
Introduction to Bhutan, the Land of the Thunder Dragon {00:51} The strategic location of Bhutan and what could happen if China took control of this area {02:25} The McMahon Line {05:45} 3 important things the Chinese claim {06:40} The Doklam Plateau and the dispute as to where Tibet, Bhutan, and India actually meet in their tripoint {09:35} The key areas of the Chumbi Valley, Gipmochi mountain, and Batang La mountain {10:50} The history of China and India going to war over border issues, and how Bhutan is being affected {13:33} How China is using maps to assert its claims and physically move into Bhutanese land {15:35}Connect with Cedric:
https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton
www.intelinsightspodcast.com
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The war in Ukraine has now been going on for over 500 days. It’s hard to believe that this protracted conflict has lasted this long in its current phase. This episode of Intel Insights focuses on the key events that have taken place since Russia’s attack in February 2022. Hear about the controversial use of cluster munitions, Ukraine’s strong desire to become a NATO member, as well as the significant divisions that have occurred in Russia’s military leadership structure.
The conflict in Ukraine has entered a new phase, with both challenges and opportunities for Ukraine and the international community. The future outlook remains uncertain, but the determination of the Ukrainian people and the support of the international community will play a crucial role in shaping the outcome.
Episode Timestamps:
Key events that have taken place since Russia’s attack on Ukraine on February 24th, 2022 {00:40} The controversial use of cluster munitions {04:45} Russia’s areas of superiority, as well as some limitations {07:20} The current situation involving Ukraine becoming a NATO member {10:30} Significant divisions within the Russian military leadership structure {14:45}Connect with Cedric:
https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton
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In this episode of Intel Insights, Cedric Leighton discusses the challenges of predicting major events and the importance of understanding the potential for black swan events. He highlights historical examples of events that were not predicted or were ignored by decision-makers, such as the fall of Saigon and the 9/11 attacks. Leighton explains Nassim Nicholas Taleb's concept of black swan events and the limitations of traditional statistical analysis in predicting rare and impactful events. He emphasizes the need for decision-makers to consider historical precedents, look for big truths beyond statistics, and assess factors such as momentum, ideology, corruption, and popular support when predicting the outcome of conflicts.
Episode Timestamps:
Examples of major historical events occurring that were not predicted or were ignored {2:23} The Black Swan theory {4:59} The Ludic fallacy {9:58} Decision theory {11:36} 5 important things to consider when it comes to the occurrence of major historical events {12:18}Connect with Cedric:
https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton
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In this edition of Intel Insights, Cedric Leighton explores the history of rebellions and revolutions in Russia, highlighting their significance and impact on the country's political landscape. He discusses notable events such as the Pugachev's Rebellion in the 18th century, the Russian Revolution of 1905, and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Leighton also delves into the recent mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner Group and its implications for Russia's foreign policy and military operations.
Episode Timestamps:
Pugachev’s Rebellion in Russia {2:00} The Decembrist Revolt and how it impacted the Russian monarchy {05:30} Key events that led to the first Russian Revolution of 1905 {07:40} Poor circumstances that ultimately led to 2 Russian revolutions in 1917 {13:30} Fighting between red Russians and white Russians in the Russian Civil War {16:30} The Kronstadt rebellion in 1921 {17:20} The coup d'etat against Gorbachev in 1991 {21:00} General Sergey Surovikin’s noticeable role in the coup d’etat in 1991, as well as his connection to present day Russian events {25:30} Important aspects involved in the Wagner Group rebellion against the Russian government in June 2023 {26:20}Connect with Cedric:
www.intelinsightspodcast.com
https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton
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In this edition of Intel Insights, Cedric Leighton discusses the history and evolution of air defenses and air raid sirens, a sound that has become all too familiar in the Ukraine-Russia war.
Cedric takes us on a journey through the history of air defenses, from the first documented case of an aircraft being shot down by a weapon from the ground in 1915 to the development of surface-to-air missile systems during World War II and the Cold War. He highlights the various efforts made by different countries to protect their territories from aerial attacks and the role of air raid sirens in warning civilians of incoming air raids.
Episode Timestamps:
The start of air defense and air raid sirens {01:15} Key developments in aviation and anti-aircraft weaponry {02:40} The significance of the Vietnam war and air defense systems {06:26} Various types of man portable air defense systems {07:25} How certain air defense systems are now playing an important role in Ukraine {09:04} Weapon systems the Russians are using in Ukraine and how both sides are being affected {10:40} The unique, layered defense system Ukraine has been able to build {13:10}Connect with Cedric:
https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton
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Something we are hearing about often in the news right now is F-16s in Ukraine. This episode dives into what F-16s are, the important process of training pilots and people who need to maintain the airframes, other potential aircraft options for Ukraine, and more.
While the F-16 may sound like the ideal fighter plane for Ukraine, there are downsides compared to other airframes that must be considered too. When it comes to training, supply, and employment issues, the F-16 may not necessarily be the panacea Ukraine is looking for, but it would be an improvement to what they currently have.
Episode Timestamps:
What an F-16 actually is {0:29} The important process of training pilots to fly F-16s {3:11} Training other types of people who maintain the F-16s {7:00} A major difference between F-16s and the aircrafts the Ukrainians are currently using {8:45} Interoperability of the F-16s {10:17} Other potential aircraft options for Ukraine {11:45} Weapons the F-16s can carry {13:22} A main concern to keep in mind as the F-16 program is developed for Ukraine {13:57}Connect with Cedric:
https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton
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In the next few weeks, President Biden will be nominating a new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. This position is very important, however it usually doesn't get the coverage that it should. The CJCS is the top ranking military officer in the United States and is responsible for advising the President and other top officials on military matters.
This episode explores the history and evolution of this position and provides insight on the likely replacement for the current Chairman, General Mark Milley.
Interesting Fact:
It turns out that of the 20 Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs, Cedric has personally met 8 of them. In addition, he has served on the Joint Staff for 4 years, under 3 different Chairman.
Episode Timestamps:
The next CJCS {01:20} The history of the role {02:30} What the role of CJCS looks like today {11:10} Challenges the upcoming Chairman will face {15:00}Resources Used For Episode Content:
Reports from NY Times, CNN, Washington Post, and "The Straw Giant: Triumph and Failure: America's Armed Forces" by Arthur T. Hadley, Copyright 1986
Connect with Cedric:
https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton
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One area of our world that is currently seeing a growing interest is Africa. The scramble for Africa actually refers back to the early 20th century when the European powers were trying to colonize the continent. Currently, Africa is the poorest part of the world. However, it is very rich in resources, therefore attracting more attention from certain countries. The countries that are showing the most interest (both commercially and militarily) and are having the most impact on the continent of Africa are China and Russia. Listen now to learn more about the new scramble for Africa.
Key Takeaways:
What the continent of Africa was like in the early 20th century compared to its position today {0:46} Other countries that are more interested in and impacting Africa now {2:30} Some of the key initiatives China has implemented in Africa {4:01} A major technology company that China put in place in African countries to monitor and collect data {8:55} The military efforts China has been doing in Africa {11:20} Chinese control over certain industrial processes and resources in Africa {12:44} Russia’s approach to their work and influence in Africa {14:35}Connect with Cedric:
https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton
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The world is a complex place. One of the major areas we need to examine and understand is the current conflict between China and Taiwan. We are all dependent on what is happening there - especially when it comes to trade and economic viability. While China has seen massive economic progress and growth over the last 50+ years, they’ve still been unable to successfully overtake Taiwan. This episode covers China’s ongoing plan to take over Taiwan, and why they think they need to do so.
Key Takeaways:
Why China thinks they really need to capture Taiwan {1:09} The specific history and events that happened between China and Taiwan, and why they did in the way they did {3:24} Several instances that China tried to retake Taiwan {10:12} The psychological operations approach the People’s Republic of China is implementing to retake Taiwan {16:19} The Chinese Communist party current leader’s stance and timeline on reclaiming Taiwan {17:26} The economic impact that would result from a takeover of Taiwan {20:45} An important similarity between the People’s Republic of China and Russia {22:07}Connect with Cedric:
https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton
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One of the biggest issues we’re currently facing in the national security space is the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It can be easy to get lost in all of the details surrounding what’s happening with this war. One of the greatest factors that comes into play here though is time; each side taking advantage of time, and how they can use it to achieve their particular goals. Listen now to learn about Russia’s war on Ukraine and what this war is really all about.
Key Takeaways:
What the Russian war on Ukraine is really all about {0:50} The systematic approach Russians used {2:12} How a continued lack of poor planning and preparation from the Russian military has come into play {3:34} Russia’s successful effort that involved invading and capturing a large part of southern Ukraine {5:24} The significance of the Azovstal Plant for Ukraine {6:14} How the Ukrainians were able to take advantage of Russia’s weaknesses {6:44} Russia’s goals regarding the war on Ukraine {10:15} Where we can expect the war to go from here {11:14} Russia’s critical strategy targeting the civilian population {14:31} The Russian army has swapped out commanders at least 4 times during this war, but Ukraine has not done so at all {17:23} How quickly each side is going to respond to each other when they’re operating on different clocks {18:41}Connect with Cedric:
https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton
https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton
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Welcome to Intel Insights. This is a podcast presented by CNN Military Analyst and 26-year US Air Force Intelligence veteran, Col (Ret) Cedric Leighton.
Tune in each Thursday to learn more about critical national security issues; what is happening and why.
Topics will cover everything from the war in Ukraine to the conflict between China and Taiwan, the scramble for Africa, and the effort to control Latin America. You'll hear about the future of warfare, as well as how cyber robotics and artificial intelligence will shape the battle space for decades to come.
After spending 26 years as a US Air Force Intelligence Officer, Cedric founded a strategic risk consultancy. A few years later, he became one of CNN's military analysts. In the military, he deployed around the world and served at all levels of command; from combat operations in the Middle East to the air staff and joint staff at the Pentagon. He witnessed the fall of the Berlin Wall, helped run special operations missions in Latin America, and fostered military relationships with countries like India and Thailand.
Cedric's strategic risk consultancy specializes in cyber and national security risks to business and government. At CNN, he has helped the network cover many stories, including the Bataclan massacre in Paris, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The world is a complex place, but Intel insights can help you develop a deeper understanding of the national security challenges we face today.
Connect with Cedric:
Twitter: https://twitter.com/CedricLeighton
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cedricleighton/
