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The inaugural Lowy Interview, featuring US President Joe Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.
During all the moments that have defined US foreign policy over the past four years — from Afghanistan to Ukraine, from meetings of the Quad to the formation of AUKUS, from October 7 to the fall of Bashar al-Assad — Jake Sullivan has been at President Biden’s elbow.
In an extended interview at the White House in Washington, DC, the Lowy Institute’s Executive Director, Dr Michael Fullilove AM, spoke with Mr Sullivan about America’s relations with the world under President Biden’s administration, and what comes next.
Dr Fullilove and Mr Sullivan discussed the monumental events in Syria, Iran’s annus horribilis, Russia’s recent setbacks and the war in Ukraine.
Closer to home, Mr Sullivan reflected on his “strategic channel” with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi, Beijing’s growing alignment with Russia, Iran and North Korea, the “Biden doctrine” in foreign policy — and how AUKUS will fare under President Donald Trump.
On a more personal note, Dr Fullilove spoke with Mr Sullivan about imposter syndrome, Midwestern niceness — and the merits of Australian Rules football.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Lowy Institute experts and guests examined the implications for Asia of Donald Trump’s re-election as US President. Our panellists examined the consequences of his re-election for US security and trade ties with Indo-Pacific, and the outlook for US-China tensions and key regional flashpoints, including Taiwan and the South China Sea. Lydia Khalil convened this conversation with colleagues Daniel Flitton, Managing Editor of the Interpreter and Susannah Patton, Director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, and Professor Bec Strating, Director of La Trobe Asia.
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On Monday 18 November 2024, we hosted Australian and American scholars at the Lowy Institute to assess the aftermath of the tense, high-stakes US election. Our panellists discussed the outcome of the poll and the implications for Australia and the region, including trade, national security, and China and Asia policy.
Richard McGregor led the conversation with the Australian Financial Review’s International Editor James Curran, and visiting scholars Charles Edel and Kathryn Paik from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, DC.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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The 2024 Lowy Lecture was delivered by the President of the Czech Republic, Petr Pavel.
The Lowy Lecture was held on Tuesday 26 November 2024 at the Sydney Town Hall.
President Petr Pavel is one of Europe’s most influential, interesting and articulate leaders. He has been a vocal supporter of Ukraine in its war against Russia, leading calls for a strong and united response by Western nations to Russia’s aggression. He believes that - facing the current challenges - democracies across the world must work closely together.
He was inaugurated as the fourth President of the Czech Republic in March 2023. Prior to entering politics, Mr Pavel spent 35 years in the Czech military, culminating in his service as the Chief of the General Staff of the Czech Armed Forces. Mr Pavel also chaired the Military Committee, NATO’s senior military authority, from 2015 to 2018.
The Lowy Lecture is the Institute’s flagship event and one of the world’s leading lecture series.
Past Lowy Lecturers have included leaders such as German Chancellor Angela Merkel, then UK Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala and US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, as well as four sitting Australian prime ministers, including Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in 2023.
The Lowy Institute is grateful for the support of our event partners Mercer and AWS.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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On Tuesday 12 November our Lowy Institute experts and senior investment leaders discussed key geopolitical risks and trends, and the impacts on financial markets and investment portfolios.
Rising geopolitical tensions are testing the resilience of global businesses and challenging existing growth strategies. Conflict in Europe and the Middle East and escalating US–China competition have the attention of business leaders. Moreover, 2024 is the year of national elections, with more than 60 countries and nearly 50 percent of the global population heading to the polls. Business leaders increasingly see geopolitics as a major risk to global growth and view political transitions as the leading emergent risk.
Our panellists considered major paradigm shifts including inflation regimes, climate and decarbonisation, technology disruption, populism, deglobalisation and changing asset class correlations. They also discussed the consequences of these shifts for Australia, Asia and the world.
Sam Roggeveen will convene this conversation with Lowy Institute Research Director Hervé Lemahieu, Barrenjoey Chief Economist Jo Masters and Future Fund Chief Investment Officer Ben Samild, which will include questions from the audience.
Panellists
Jo Masters is Chief Economist of Barrenjoey Capital Partners. She focuses on trends across the economy and financial markets and has been a highly regarded part of the economic debate in Australia for 25 years.
Hervé Lemahieu is Director of Research at the Lowy Institute. His research interests include strategy and geopolitics, global governance, Australian foreign policy, Southeast Asia and data analysis. He started his career at Oxford Analytica informing government and business policy on geopolitical risk in Asia.
Ben Samild is Chief Investment Officer at the Future Fund. In his former role as Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Mr Samild led the teams responsible for investing Listed Equites and Alternatives strategies and led the integration of whole-of-portfolio insights as part of the Fund’s joined-up investment approach.
Sam Roggeveen is Director the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute. He is the author of The Echidna Strategy: Australia’s Search for Power and Peace. Sam also serves as Lead Editor at the Lowy Institute, and editor of the Lowy Institute Papers.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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A wide-ranging conversation with The Economist’s defence editor, Shashank Joshi, which will cover the Ukraine war, the Middle East, China’s nuclear ambitions, tensions between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, the implications of the US presidential election for international security, and much more, including questions from the audience. Shashank Joshi is The Economist’s defence editor. Previously, he served as Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute and Research Associate at Oxford University’s Changing Character of War program. He has published books on Iran’s nuclear program and India’s armed forces, written for a wide range of newspapers and journals, and appeared regularly on radio and television. Sam Roggeveen, Director of the Lowy Institute’s International Security Program, hosted the conversation.
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On the eve of the US election, Lowy Institute experts review the culmination of a tumultuous 2024 presidential election season. Michael Fullilove, Ryan Neelam, Richard McGregor and Susannah Patton examine the beliefs and policies that animate both presidential contenders – Kalama Harris and Donald Trump – and their teams of advisors. They also discuss the consequences of this election for Asia and the world.v
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Democracies around the world are being challenged by socio-economic pressures, rising inequalities, and rapid technological developments, as well as growing polarisation and diminishing trust in institutions. Safeguarding democracy by addressing these challenges has become a national priority, but it also has clear geopolitical implications for Australia and its democratic allies. With non-democratic powers such as China and Russia acting to blunt the influence of the international rules-based order, the health of democracies will play a significant role in the future of this order and its institutions.
An in-person conversation with the head of Australia’s Strengthening Democracy Taskforce, Dr Jeni Whalan, to discuss how Australia fares in terms of the broader global trends impacting democracies and what renewing democracy at home means in an era of geopolitical competition.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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With China’s military capability increasing but US military primacy still holding firm for now, bi-polarity may be the name of the game in the Asia Pacific. But will this bipolarity hold and how are other regional countries positioned? Richard McGregor hosts Professor Hugh White, Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University (ANU) and Lowy Institute experts, Project Lead for the Asia Power Index (API) Susannah Patton and Research Director Herve Lemahieu to examine and debate the results of the 2024 API.
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In Asia, a battle of narratives rages. Many believe China is already an unassailably dominant force, while US primacists see it as ultimately containable. In either case, bipolarity is the order of the day. However, countries such as Australia and Japan tout the emergence of a multipolar Indo-Pacific. What do the findings of the Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index say about these prevailing narratives? And what role can third countries play in Asia’s power politics and in its regional order? Dr Michael Green joined the Lowy Institute’s Susannah Patton and Hervé Lemahieu to debate the findings of the 2024 Asia Power Index.
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Sean Turnell's new Lowy Institute Paper, Best Laid Plans, was officially launched by Australia's Foreign Minister Penny Wong at an event at the National Press Club in Canberra, on Monday 14 October 2024.
The new book offers a unique first-hand account of the radical reforms implemented in Myanmar under the ill-fated civilian government of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. These reforms, designed both to turn around Myanmar’s dire economy and lay the economic foundations for democracy, were brought to a dramatic end following the military coup in February 2021. Sean Turnell was one of Suu Kyi’s key economic advisers who was imprisoned alongside her in the wake of the coup.
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As the United States approaches a pivotal presidential election in November, populism is on the rise and key tenets of American democracy are being tested. Meanwhile, the rest of the world is preparing for two very different versions of the superpower.
Dr Michael Dimock, the President of Pew Research Center, joins the Lowy Institute's Ryan Neelam and Lydia Khalil to discuss the upcoming presidential election, the state of democracy, and the role of public opinion in US and global politics.
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The soundness of military strategy and the nimbleness with which strategy can adapt to unforeseen circumstances are the two most important factors in deciding victory or defeat. This is the clearest lesson to emerge from the Ukraine war, argues Mick Ryan, one of the most quoted and influential military experts on the conflict.
We heard from Mick about the ongoing war in Ukraine and his new book in a conversation hosted by the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen, which included questions from the audience.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Monday 16 September 2024
Indonesia is in the countdown to the October presidential transition from Joko Widodo (Jokowi) to Prabowo Subianto, who won a decisive victory in the April presidential election. Hugely ambitious and popular, Jokowi leaves a complex legacy, including strained democratic institutions, the politicisation of the police and military, and an at times transactional foreign policy that benefited China’s standing.
The panel drew on perspectives presented at the 2024 Australian National University Indonesia Update conference to explore the legacy of Jokowi’s presidency and the direction that Prabowo may now seek to steer Indonesia.
Eve Warburton is a senior lecturer at the Department of Political and Social Change in the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, and Director of ANU's Indonesia Institute at the College of Asia and the Pacific. Her research is concerned broadly with problems of representation, governance, and business-state relations, in young and developing democracies, with a regional focus on Southeast Asia and Indonesia in particular. She has published in leading disciplinary and area studies journals on these topics, and her first book manuscript, Resource Nationalism in Indonesia: Booms, Big Business and the State, was published by Cornell University Press in late 2023.
Sidney Jones is Senior Adviser to the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) in Jakarta, a non-governmental research organization she founded in 2013. She served as director from 2013 to 2021, when she returned to New York. From 2002 to 2013, Jones worked with the International Crisis Group in Jakarta, first as Southeast Asia project director, then from 2007 as senior adviser to the Asia program. Before joining Crisis Group, she worked for the Ford Foundation in Jakarta and New York (1977-84); Amnesty International in London as the Indonesia-Philippines-Pacific researcher (1985-88); and Human Rights Watch in New York as the Asia director (1989-2002). She took a leave from the latter position in 2000 to serve as chief of the human rights office of the United Nations Transitional Administration in East Timor (UNTAET). Jones holds a B.A. and M.A. from the University of Pennsylvania.
Marcus Mietzner is Associate Professor at the Department of Political and Social Change, Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs at the Australian National University in Canberra. He has published extensively on Indonesian politics, including in peer-reviewed international journals such as Democratization, International Political Science Review, Governance, Journal of Democracy, Contemporary Politics, Australian Journal of International Affairs, Journal of Contemporary Asia and Critical Asian Studies. His latest book is "The Coalitions Presidents Make: Presidential Power and its Limits in Democratic Indonesia" (Cornell University Press, 2023). He is currently writing a book on the Jokowi presidency, based on a series of interviews with the outgoing president and other key actors.
Rizal Sukma is a Senior Fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Indonesia. Previously, he was Indonesia’s Ambassador to the United Kingdom, Ireland and the International Maritime Organization (IMO), London, from 2016 to 2020. He joined CSIS in 1990 as a researcher and assumed the role of Executive Director in 2009 until 2015. Dr Sukma also served as Chairman of International Relations, Muhammadiyah Central Executive Board (2005-2015). Since receiving a PhD in International Relations from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) in 1997, he has worked extensively on such issues as Southeast Asian security, ASEAN, Indonesia’s defense and foreign policy, military reform, Islam and politics, and domestic political changes in Indonesia.
The panel was moderated by Susannah Patton, Director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute.
All Lowy Institute public events are on the record and open for media attendance.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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On Tuesday 10 September we had a conversation with the President of the World Bank Group, Ajay Banga, on key global economic challenges, what this means for Australia and the Asia-Pacific, and how the World Bank, governments, private sector, and civil society can work together to make the investments needed to end poverty and boost shared prosperity on a liveable planet. Dr Michael Fullilove hosted this discussion, which also featured questions from the audience.
Ajay Banga began his five-year term as World Bank President in June 2023. He most recently served as Vice Chairman at General Atlantic. Previously, he was President and CEO of Mastercard. He was Honorary Chairman of the International Chamber of Commerce, serving as Chairman from 2020-2022. He became an advisor to General Atlantic’s climate-focused fund, BeyondNetZero, at its inception in 2021. Banga served as Co-Chair of the Partnership for Central America, a coalition of private organisations that works to advance economic opportunity across underserved populations in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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On Tuesday 3 September 2024 we had a conversation with Sean Turnell about his latest book, Best Laid Plans, a unique first-hand account of the radical reforms implemented in Myanmar under the ill-fated civilian government of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. These reforms, designed both to turn around Myanmar’s dire economy and lay the economic foundations for democracy, were brought to a dramatic end following the military coup in Myanmar in February 2021. Sean Turnell was one of Suu Kyi’s key economic advisers who was imprisoned alongside her in the wake of the coup.
The event was moderated by the Lowy Institute’s Hervé Lemahieu and will include questions from the audience.
Dr Sean Turnell is a Senior Fellow in the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute. He has been a Senior Economic Analyst at the Reserve Bank of Australia, a policy adviser to the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, and is a Professor of Economics at Macquarie University. From 2016 to 2021, he served as the senior economic adviser to Myanmar’s democratic government, led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.
Hervé Lemahieu is the Director of Research at the Lowy Institute.A copy of the book is included in the ticket price.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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From deals on policing in Solomon Islands to building parliamentary complexes in Vanuatu, China’s outreach and activities in the Pacific Islands region appear indefatigable.
In the words of Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Canberra and its partners are locked in a "state of permanent contest" with Beijing over influence in the region.
Previously undervalued by larger powers, Pacific Islanders must now grapple with the realities of a region subjected to intense geopolitical competition.
Our panel analysed the rapidly evolving regional security environment and the implications for Australia and the wider Pacific Islands region.
The panel was moderated by Hervé Lemahieu, Director of Research at the Lowy Institute, with expert speakers including:
• Richard McGregor, Senior Fellow for East Asia, Lowy Institute
• Oliver Nobetau, FDC Pacific Research Fellow, Lowy Institute
• Dr Anna Powles, Associate Professor at the Centre for Defence and Security Studies, Massey University, New Zealand
• Mihai Sora, Director of the Pacific Islands Program, Lowy InstituteSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Eminent military historian and strategist Sir Lawrence Freedman talks with the Lowy Institute’s Sam Roggeveen about whether there is a plausible path towards peace or a ceasefire, the implications of a Trump Administration on support for Ukraine’s war effort, whether Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian civilian targets are working, and innovations on the battlefield. Roggeveen also asks Freedman: what did you get wrong in your early analysis of the war? Recorded on Wednesday 24 July 2024
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Thursday 15 August 2024
The Lowy Institute was delighted to host the Rt Hon Christopher Luxon, Prime Minister of New Zealand, for a special foreign policy address on Thursday 15 August.
Rt Hon Christopher Luxon is the 42nd Prime Minister of New Zealand. Since coming to power in October 2023, Prime Minister Luxon has focused closely on issues of foreign, defence and trade policy, including re-engaging and reinvigorating New Zealand’s relationships with traditional and like-minded partners. He is also the Minister for National Security and Intelligence and the Minister Responsible for Ministerial Services. He entered Parliament at the 2020 election as the MP for Botany and was elected Leader of the National Party in November 2021.
Prior to entering Parliament, Prime Minister Luxon enjoyed a long career in the private sector: as Chief Executive Officer of Air New Zealand from 2013 to 2019, and at Unilever where he worked in New Zealand, Australia, the UK, the USA and Canada.
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As the United States approaches a pivotal presidential election, how do Australians view our security ally? After two years of official re-engagement, have Australians’ perceptions of China changed? What should the government do about climate change, and how do Australians feel about renewable and nuclear energy?
Now in its 20th edition, the Lowy Institute’s flagship annual poll is the longest-running and broadest survey of Australian public opinion on the world. For two decades, it has revealed changing attitudes and played an influential role in the public debate on foreign policy.The Hon Tim Watts MP opened our event, after which an expert panel unpacked the results of the 2024 Lowy Institute Poll and discussed how Australians see their place in the world.
The Hon Tim Watts MP, Assistant Minister for Foreign Affairs, was elected to the House of Representatives as the Federal Member for Gellibrand in 2013 and has served as Assistant Minister for Foreign Affairs since 2022.
Ryan Neelam is the Director of the Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program at the Lowy Institute and the author of the 2024 Lowy Institute Poll. He previously served as an Australian diplomat in Hong Kong and at the United Nations, New York.
Michelle Lyons is a Research Fellow in the Lowy Institute’s Indo-Pacific Development Centre where she works on international climate change policy and climate finance. She has more than a decade of experience in the public service and at ANU working on international and domestic climate change policy and is a recipient of the prestigious Sir Roland Wilson Scholarship.
Sam Roggeveen (moderator) is Director of the Lowy Institute's International Security Program. He was the founding editor of The Interpreter, is editor of the Lowy Institute Papers, and is the author of The Echidna Strategy: Australia’s Search for Power and Peace. Before joining the Lowy Institute, Sam was a senior analyst in Australia's peak intelligence agency, the Office of National Assessments.
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