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In part one of this three part series, we consider why a country that issues debt in its own currency can't default unless it chooses to. We also explore how central banks can control interest rates on the national debt. We also consider whether it is possible for government borrowing to crowd out the private sector.
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Show Notes
Money In The Modern Economy: An Introduction – Bank of England – Q1 2014
Money Creation In The Modern Economy – Bank of England – Q1 2014
Congressional Budget Office 2017 Long-term Budget Outlook
Going for Broke: Deficits, Debt, and the Entitlement Crisis – Michael D. Tanner
Bernanke’s Paradox: Can He Reconcile His Position on the Federal Budget with His Recent Charge to Prevent Deflation? – Pavlina R. Tcherneva – Levy Institute (includes quotes referenced in episode by Ben Bernanke and Michael Woodford
New Framework for Strengthening Monetary Easing: “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with Yield Curve Control” – Bank of Japan
Japan’s Debt Burden Is Quietly Falling the Most in the World – Bloomberg
The Bone Clocks – David Mitchell
Venezuela Is Starving – Juan Forero – Wall Street Journal
Curse or Blessing? How Institutions Determine Success in Resource-Rich Economies – Cato Institute
Forget Taxes, Warren Buffett Says. The Real Problem Is Health Care. – New York Times
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Why global small-cap stocks have underperformed large-cap stocks and will the trend continue? The investment case for allocating to global small caps.
Topics covered include:
How have small caps performed relative to large caps over the past two decadesWhat factors contributed to the underperformanceHow quality is an important factor to consider when investing in small capsWhat are the earnings prospects for small-cap stocksWhy small-cap stocks could deliver double-digit returns over the next decadeSponsors
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Show Notes
US small-caps suffer worst run against larger stocks in over 20 years by George Steer—The Financial Times
Small stocks, big problems by Robin Wigglesworth—The Financial Times
The Death of Small Cap Equities? by Chris Satterthwaite—Verdad
The Quality of New Entrants by Chris Satterthwaite—Verdad
Related Episodes
466: Does Dividend Investing Still Work?
370: Should You Invest in Small-Cap and Mid-Cap Stocks?
253: Are IPOs the New Ponzi Scheme?
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It is not normal to want prices to rise and currencies to lose their purchasing power. We look at the advantages of stable currencies and prices.
Topics covered include:
What's more normal, an inflationary or deflationary mindset?Why it is more normal for prices to fall due to productivity increasesHow central banks seek to overcome productivity-induced deflation by increasing the money supplyHow inflation and ongoing currency debasement encourage debt, the financialization of housing, and keep unprofitable companies in businessHow gold, Bitcoin, stocks, real estate, and other assets help us overcome currency debasementSponsors
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Show Notes
Is Japan finally becoming a "normal" economy?—The Financial Times
Broken Money by Lyn Alden
A Complete Guide to Understanding and Protecting Against Inflation—Money for the Rest of Us
Related Episodes
431: The Long-term Bullish Case for Gold
429: Which Inflation Protection Strategies Worked and Which Didn’t?
389: Is Airbnb Intensifying the Housing Crisis?
253: Are IPOs the New Ponzi Scheme?
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Some analysts suggest that now is an incredibly attractive entry point to invest in emerging market bonds. We look at how to do this and whether you should.
Topics covered include:
How emerging markets bonds have performed relative to U.S. bondsHow frequently have emerging markets bonds defaultedWhat is the difference between local currency and U.S. dollar-denominated emerging markets bondsWhy emerging markets nations are reformingWhat are the ways to invest in emerging markets bonds and what factors should you considerSponsors
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Show Notes
Emerging Local Debt: A Once-In-A-Generation Opportunity? by Victoria Courmes—GMO
EM Sovereign Defaults at Record Level, but Rating Outlooks More Balanced—Fitch Ratings
The big opportunity in emerging market debt by Victoria Courmes—The Financial Times
Default Risk Fades in Emerging Markets as Riskiest Bonds Soar by Zijia Song, Giovanna Bellotti Azevedo, and Srinivasan Sivabalan—Bloomberg
The weakest links in the global economy are on the mend by Ruchir Sharma—The Financial Times
How to invest in closed-end funds - Money for the Rest of Us
Investments Mentioned
iShares JP Morgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB)
iShares JP Morgan Emerging Markets Local Currency Bond ETF (LEMB)
DoubleLine Low Duration Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund (DELNX)
DoubleLine Emerging Markets Fixed Income Fund (DLENX)
Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income ETF (EDF)
DoubleLine Income Solutions Fund (DSL)
Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Debt Fund (MSD)
Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Domestic Debt Fund (MSD)
Related Episodes
411: Is Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing Still Worth It? – With Asha Mehta
How to Invest in Closed-End Funds
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In this conversation with financial advisor Josh Jalinski, David shares his views on constructing and benchmarking portfolios, factor investing including growth versus value, and managing regret. We explore a number of asset classes and strategies including dividend investing, leveraged loans, closed-end funds, equity REITs, and China. We also discuss how to manage retirement assets.
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Show Notes
Josh Jalinksi - Financial Quarterback
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Why most households are in better financial shape than prior to the pandemic, but remain frustrated at their lack of economic progress.
Topics covered include:
How consumer sentiment surveys are designed and their current findings.Reasons behind consumer frustration with increasing prices amidst declining inflation rates.The magnitude of the inflation shock and its underlying causes.The concept of reference prices and their significant role in shaping consumer sentiment.Factors contributing to the high levels of economic uncertainty among households.Key elements required for enhancing consumer confidence in their economic future.The political repercussions stemming from widespread economic dissatisfaction.Sponsors
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Show Notes
Surveys of Consumers—University of Michigan
Consumer sentiment climbs amid split views on business outlook—University of Michigan
The Purchasing Power of American Households—U.S. Department of the Treasury
Unemployment Rate—St. Louis Fed
We Still Don’t Believe How Much Things Cost by Rachel Wolfe and Rachel Louise Ensign—The Wall Street Journal
It’s Been 30 Years Since Food Ate Up This Much of Your Income by Jesse Newman and Heather Haddon—The Wall Street Journal
Consumers are increasingly pushing back against price increases — and winning by Christopher Rugaber—Yahoo! Finance
Kraft Heinz ups ad spend, changes leadership by Christopher Lombardo—Strategy
Many Americans Believe the Economy Is Rigged by Katherine J. Cramer and Johnathon D. Cohen—The New York Times
Covid-19 Coronavirus Pandemic—Worldometer
Related Episodes
380: How Stories Drive Our Happiness and Financial Success
294: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Economic Events
286: Coronavirus and the Financial Impact of Pandemics
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How to use covered call and buy-write strategies to generate income while understanding the risks and having realistic return expectations.
Topics covered include:
How covered call strategies workHow much can you earn investing in covered call strategiesWhat are some numerical examples based on current option pricesHow covered call strategies can be used for both stock and bond ETFsWhat are some covered call ETF examplesSponsors
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Investments Mentioned
JP Morgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI)
JP Morgan Equity Premium Income Fund (JEPIX)
Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD)
Global X S&P 500® Covered Call ETF (XYLD)
iShares 20+ Year Trs Bd Buywrt Stgy ETF (TLTW)
WisdomTree PutWrite Strategy Fund (PUTW)
Related Episodes
467: Unraveling the Truth About ETFs: Benefits, Analysis, and the Indexing Bubble Myth
418: Bond Investing Masterclass
321: How to Analyze Complex Investments
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A primer on how the economic engine works through coordination between savers, investors, consumers, producers, governments and banks. How hoarding and unfair competition can lead to economic distortions.
Topics covered include:
How spending and saving are connected including the paradox of thriftHow borrowing money can lead to higher income and savings and potentially to bubblesHow hoarding differs from investing and why too much hoarding can deprive businesses of capitalHow lightbulbs, grocery stores, and kitchen appliances could be examples of unfair competition and planned obsolescence.What role do we play as participants in this coordinated economic dance?Sponsors
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Show Notes
Wait, Is Saving Good or Bad? The Paradox of Thrift—The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Rents: How Marketing Causes Inequality by Gerrit De Geest—Beccaria Books
FTC Challenges Kroger’s Acquisition of Albertsons—Federal Trade Commission
The Lifespan of Large Appliances Is Shrinking by Rachel Wolfe—The Wall Street Journal
Related Episodes
288: Will Early Retirements Crash the Economy?
222: Why We Overpay and How It Contributes To Income Inequality
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Berkshire Hathaway doesn't pay a dividend, its cash pile keeps growing, and Buffet says it's gotten too big to make acquisitions that can impact the company. Meanwhile, utility ETFs have a steady 3.5% dividend yield. Which will be the better-performing investment going forward?
Topics covered include:
How has Berkshire Hathaway performed relative to the S&P 500 Index and other active managersWhy Warren Buffett believes Berkshire's electric utility holdings were a mistakeWhy California has some of the highest utility rates in the U.S.Why Berkshire Hathaway will eventually need to pay a dividend even though it doesn't currentlyGoing forward, will it be more profitable to invest in Berkshire Hathaway, a utility ETF, or an index fundSponsors
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Show Notes
Berkshire Hathaway 2023 Shareholder Letter
The Man Preparing for a Berkshire Hathaway Without Warren Buffett by Justin Baer—The Wall Street Journal
Warren Buffett admits Berkshire Hathaway’s days of ‘eye-popping’ gains are over by Eric Platt—The Financial Times
Active vs Passive Investment Management Barometer Report—Morningstar
Buffett sounds wildfire alarm as utilities industry enters new era by Eric Platt and Myles McCormick—The Financial Times
Paying for Electricity in California: How Residential Rate Design Impacts Equity and Electrification—Next10
Investments Mentioned
Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B (BRK.B)
Vanguard Utilities ETF (VPU)
Related Episodes
466: Does Dividend Investing Still Work?
463 Plus: Model Portfolios, UK versus US Valuations, MCI Premium, and MFD Proxy Battle
444: Natural Disasters: Are They Truly Increasing?
242: Should You Let Warren Buffett Manage Your Money?
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Japan's stock market recently exceeded the all-time high first set in December 1989. That's 34 years of zero price appreciation for the stock market. What drove this lackluster performance, will it continue, and what can we learn from it?
Topics covered include:
How big was Japan's stock bubble, and how much did it contribute to the stock market's underperformance over the past three decadesHow do Japan's demographic trends impact its economic challenges, and what are the solutionsWhy Japan's houses are built to depreciate in valueWhat lessons can we learn from Japan's extended bear marketSponsors
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Show Notes
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index eclipses record high after 34 years by Leo Lewis—The Financial Times
Investors eye further gains after Nikkei breaks through 1989 high by Leo Lewis and Kana Inagaki—The Financial Times
Related Episodes
235: What If Home Prices Always Declined
178: Japan and the Impact of A Shrinking Population
73 Plus: Investing In Japan
38 Plus: Time Wealth and Japan
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How the ETF market is changing, why ETFs should be your preferred investment vehicle, and how to analyze ETFs to generate better investment performance.
Topics covered include:
How large have fund flows been away from active mutual funds into ETFsHow big are the largest ETF families and how has their market share grownWhy the rise of active ETFs blurs the distinction between active and passive investingWhy there doesn't appear to be an indexing price bubble, but the rise of passive investing has impacted volatility and decreased stock price informativenessA framework for how to analyze markets and select ETFs for your portfolioSponsors
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Show Notes
Global Fund Flows Dominated by Fixed-Income and ETFs—Morningstar
It’s Official: Passive Funds Overtake Active Funds by Adam Sabban—Morningstar
ETF Issuer League Tables—VettaFi
Global ETF Market Facts: three things to know from Q3 2023 by Samara Cohen—iShares
Rise of Passive Investing - Effects on Price Level, Market Volatility, and Price Informativeness by Pawel Bednarek—SSRN
Investments Mentioned
SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust (SPY)
JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI)
Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF (AVUV)
Related Episodes
426: Which is Best – Active or Passive, ETFs or Funds?
321: How to Analyze Complex Investments
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Stocks that grow their dividends have outperformed non-dividend-paying stocks over the long-term, but not in the past 5, 10, and 20 years. Why are non-dividend paying stocks outperforming dividend growers, and will it continue?
Topics covered include:
What message do companies say when they initiate, grow, or cut their dividendWhat is dividend smoothingHow have dividend payers performed relative to non-dividend payersWhy have non-dividend payers, which are primarily growth stocks, outperformed dividend payersHow the payout ratio and return on equity impact dividend strategiesWhat are reasons to include dividend strategies in your portfolioSponsors
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Show Notes
The dividend puzzle by Fischer Black—The Journal of Portfolio Management
Can Dividend Investing Rise From the Dead? by Jon Sindreu—The Wall Street Journal
Einhorn Says Markets ‘Fundamentally Broken’ By Passive, Quant Investing by Matthew Griffin—Bloomberg
Your Mutual Fund Stinks. Can This Wall Street Invention Change That? by Jason Zweig—The Wall Street Journal
Asset Camp
Investments Mentioned
WisdomTree U.S. SmallCap Quality Dividend Growth Fund (DGRS)
WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend ETF (DEM)
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF (VIG)
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV)
Related Episodes
429: Which Inflation Protection Strategies Worked and Which Didn’t?
342: Is Another Great Inflation Coming?
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Humans are wired to feel regret. Here's how to learn from financial regret to become a better investor.
Topics covered include:
What cognitive biases make feelings of financial regret unavoidableWe analyze two regret case studies - one from David and one from a Plus memberWhy do we avoid big regrets but manage through small onesFive cognitive tricks to help manage financial regretsSponsors
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Show Notes
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets by Nassim Nicholas Taleb—Penguin Random House
Related Content
448: Where Are Interest Rates Headed Next? Insights from the Jackson Hole Symposium
408: Is Success Due to Hard Work, Talent, or Luck?
What Is Risk vs Uncertainty?
53: Should You Invest In Bitcoin?
Investments Mentioned
Vanguard Long-Term Bond ETF (BLV)
Vanguard Extended Duration Trs ETF (EDV)
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Professional investors and other market participants are lousy at forecasting interest rates. Here are three more options to lock in higher yields today.
Topics covered include:
The risk of buying long-term bonds and ETFs to benefit from falling yieldsHow volatility drag has impacted a long-term bond ETF like TLTWhy interest rates won't go up just because the government issues more bondsHow CDs, fixed annuities, and zero-coupon bonds workWe compare and contrast the seven fixed-income options reviewed in this two-part seriesSponsors
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Show Notes
Investors may be getting the Federal Reserve wrong, again—The Economist
Today's Best Multi-Year Guaranteed Annuities—Immediate Annuities
Zero-Coupon Treasuries Flew Off Shelves During October Yield Surge by Elizabeth Stanton—Bloomberg
Investments Mentioned
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)
Invesco BulletShares 2029 Corporate Bond ETF (BSCT)
Related Episodes
463: How to Lock in Higher Yields in Case Interest Rates Fall
418: Bond Investing Masterclass
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With cash yields expected to fall, here's how you can keep your portfolio income elevated by purchasing longer-term individual bonds and bullet ETFs
Topics covered include:
How future short-term interest rates, inflation expectations, and term premiums impact long-term interest ratesHow each of those rate drivers contributed to the close to 1% drop in interest rates in the past three monthsHow yield to maturity is our guide to locking in a fixed return using individual bonds or bullet ETFsHow bullet ETFs work and what are some examplesWhat are callable bonds and how to analyze themHow to analyze municipal bondsWhy we might want to lock in higher yields todaySponsors
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Show Notes
Term Premium on a 10 Year Zero Coupon Bond—FRED Economic Data
Investments Mentioned
Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND)
Invesco BulletShares 2030 Corporate Bond ETF (BCSU)
iShares iBonds Dec 2026 Term Trust ETF (IBTG)
Invesco BulletShares 2031 High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (BSJV)
Related Episodes
455: Easier Investing, Richer Life: TIPS Ladders to Annuities
453: The Price of Money – 700 Years of Falling, Can Interest Rates Keep Rising?
452: Beyond Stocks: The Allure and Strategy of Credit Investments
448: Where Are Interest Rates Headed Next? Insights from the Jackson Hole Symposium
418: Bond Investing Masterclass
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We explore reasons for buying Bitcoin using one of the new Bitcoin ETFs. We also consider the risks.
Topics covered include:
Why the SEC finally decided to approve spot Bitcoin ETFsWhat are the fees and structure of these new Bitcoin ETFsHow Bitcoin is similar and different from the fiat money systemWhere Bitcoin fits in an investment portfolioSponsors
Long Angle is a private community of 2,500 very high net worth investors who leverage their collective expertise and scale to access and underwrite some of the world’s best alternative asset investments. Learn more here.
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Show Notes
Statement on the Approval of Spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Products - SEC
Coinbase at the Center of Bitcoin ETF Draws Envy and Risks - Bloomberg
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet
Related Episodes
362: Should You Invest in a Bitcoin ETF?
355: Which Money Is Crazier: The U.S. Dollar or Bitcoin?
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The intricate dance between profession, risk, lifestyle, and luck in determining how net worth grows.
Topics covered include:
The various factors that shape the growth of net worth, including professional choices, risk tolerance, and lifestyle decisions.David Stein's personal account of how these elements influenced the trajectory of his financial growth.Insights into the range of net worth increases observed in 2023, driven by the performance of financial markets.The importance of focusing on one's output quality and personal journey of wealth creation, rather than fixating on comparisons with others' net worth.Sponsors
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Show Notes
Managing Oneself by Peter F. Drucker—Harvard Business Review
Soloing: Realizing Your Life's Ambition by Harriet Rubin—HarperCollins
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The pros and cons of investing your retirement assets 100% in equity, including half in international stocks. Why the 4% spending rule is too aggressive.
Why historical asset class return studies that use only U.S. data are biasedHow researchers build a broader database to study retirement outcomes and spending ratesHow a 100% stock portfolio performed compared to balanced portfolios and target date fundsWhy investors should have half their assets in international stocksWhy a 4% spending rule is too high, and what is the alternativeSponsor
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Show Notes
Beyond the Status Quo: A Critical Assessment of Lifecycle Investment Advice by Aizhan Anarkulova, Scott Cederburg, and Michael S. O'Doherty—SSRN
The Safe Withdrawal Rate: Evidence from a Broad Sample of Developed Markets by Aizhan Anarkulova, Scott Cederburg, Michael S. O'Doherty, and Richard W. Sias—SSRN
Related Episodes
421: Beware of Survivorship Bias When Investing
326: The New Math of Retirement Spending and Investing
254: Should You Be 100% Invested In Stocks?
250: Investing Rule One: Avoid Ruin
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We close out 2023 by answering your questions on active vs passive management, market timing, investing for status, what we learned from Charlie Munger, thoughts on a coming recession, worst investment mistakes, recent books that changed us, and more.
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Show Notes
How the World Really Works by Vaclav Smil—Viking
The Day the World Stops Shopping by J.B. Mackinnon—Harper Collins
Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity by Sandrine Dixson-Declève, et al—Earth for All
Barbarian Days: A Surfing Life by William Finnegan—Penguin Random House
Tao te Ching: Power for the Peaceful by Lao Tzu (Author) and Marc Mullinax (Translator)—Fortress Press
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Do the impressive returns in public and private markets stem from strategic financial engineering or reflect actual economic growth?
How corporate profit growth is linked to economic growth, even though corporate profits are more volatileHow interest rates, tax rates, and stock buybacks influence corporate profits and stock returnsWhy there are fewer publicly traded stocksHow the increase in leveraged buyouts has impacted the economyHow private equity funds use financial engineering to boost returnsSponsors
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Show Notes
US CEOs start to contemplate Trump, round 2 by Rana Foroohar—The Financial Times
End of an Era: The Coming Long-Run Slowdown in Corporate Profit Growth and Stock Returns by Michael Smolyansky—The Federal Reserve
10-Year Stock Market Returns—Crestmont Research
Stock Average—Crestmont Research
Stock EPS Reality—Crestmont Research
What Matters More for Emerging Markets Investors: Economic Growth or EPS Growth? by Jason Hsu Jay Ritter Phillip Wool Yanxiang Zhao—Portfolio Management Research
Nominal Gross Domestic Product for United States—FRED Economic Data
The Secretive Industry Devouring the U.S. Economy by Rogé Karma—The Atlantic
Key Drivers Behind Widespread Adoption Of NAV Financing by Matthew K Kerfoot—Proskauer
The Inevitable Rise of NAV Financing by Patricia Teixeira and Anastasia Kaup—Ropes & Gray
HAVE EXCHANGE-LISTED FIRMS BECOME LESS IMPORTANT FOR THE ECONOMY? by Frederik P. Schlingemann and René M. Stulz—NBER
LBOs Make (More) Companies Go Bankrupt, Research Shows by Alicia McElhaney—Institutional Investor
Leveraged buyouts and financial distress by Brian Ayash and Mahdi Rastad—ScienceDirect
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