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In this episode, Dr. Happymon Jacob interviews Amb. Rajiv Bhatia (Rtd. Indian Diplomat & Distinguished Fellow at the Gateway House) about India’s engagement with Africa and the nature of strategic challenge from increasing Chinese presence and strategic depth in the continent. He highlights China’s economic, political and strategic interests in Africa, given its natural resources, numerical heft in the international fora, and significance for China’s rise as a global power. Amb. Bhatia argues that while India is seen as a benign power, the reality of Chinese power is becoming increasingly apparent. He also acknowledges that India has made significant gains in the last decade and a half but warns that its grip on Africa has gotten looser in the past 3-4 years due to Covid-19, Galwan, and Ukraine crises. He stresses that it is crucial to recognize that India’s Indo-Pacific concept spans the Indian Ocean, including Africa’s East Coast in the Western Indian Ocean and the African continent.
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In this episode, Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks with Dr. Avinash Paliwal (Senior Lecturer in International Relations and Deputy Director of the SOAS South Asia Institute) to discuss the Indian state’s response to conflict-generated migrations since independence. Dr. Paliwal argues that the relationship between the home and the host state and the reputational benefits are the most important factors influencing a state’s response to the conflict generated migrant crisis. The interview explains the nature of India’s relation with the international refugee regime – including its refusal to sign the 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol – and highlights the absence of a domestic legislative framework to distinguish between illegal migrants and refugees. In response to the recent movement of Rohingyas from India to Bangladesh, Dr. Paliwal argues that domestic politics appears to have gained the upper hand in India. He suggests that India’s approach to conflict-generated migrations has witnessed a fundamental shift since it dealt with the Rohingyas. Dr. Paliwal appreciates India’s overall approach to dealing with conflict-generated migrant crises compared to many western states, given the state of India’s economy and issues of caste, class, and diversity within the country. Focusing on Myanmar since the coup and Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover, the interview also interrogates the novel development in India’s foreign policy to deal with whoever happens to be in power, regardless of the regime type. For Afghanistan, Dr. Paliwal makes a strong case that India should have a presence and outreach in Kabul to avoid any strategic catastrophe.
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In this episode, Dr Happymon Jacob speaks with Dr George Cooke (Diplomatic Historian & Senior lecturer at the Department of International Relations, University of Colombo, Sri Lanka) to discuss the ongoing economic and political crisis in Sri Lanka. Dr Cooke discusses what exactly landed Srilanka into one of the worst crises it has faced in decades, along with the strategic significance of Sri Lanka in the Indo-Pacific region. He paints a clear picture of the sufferings of ordinary Sri Lankans who are facing severe shortages of essentials, sharp price rises and crippling power cuts. Dr Cooke is critical of the current government’s handling of the crisis. While acknowledging the role of the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict is exacerbating Sri Lanka’s economic woes, he argues that the major share of the blame lies with the government’s poor economic policies. Dr Cooke highlights India's continuous assistance to the island nation but is critical of the West for its lack of concern and support, which drove Sri Lanka to be over-reliant on China. He also argues that Sri Lanka has failed to negotiate well with China but refutes charges of “debt-trap diplomacy.
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In this episode, Dr Happymon Jacob speaks with Amb. (Dr.) Mohan Kumar (Retd. Indian Diplomat and Professor of International Affairs at O.P. Jindal Global University) about the recently concluded free trade agreement between India and Australia. The discussion dwells on India’s foreign trade policy more generally. Amb. Kumar explains why India opted out of the RCEP negotiations and highlights that India’s approach now is to have Free Trade Agreements with individual countries tailor-made to suit its exports. He also highlights that migration issues in the trade flow can be reduced by the ‘Labour mobility and Partnership Agreement’ between the countries. Amb. Kumar also stresses the importance of foreign trade in the growth of India’s GDP. While addressing the lack of competitiveness in the Indian markets, he discusses the lack of political will that has allowed India to be held hostage to vested interests in terms of foreign trade agreements. He points out how India is moving from the Act East policy to entirely Acting West in FTA negotiations. He is critical of India for not promoting regional trade agreements with its South Asian neighbours. While he believes that trade partnerships with Japan, Australia and South Korea can help reduce India’s dependency on China, he is concerned about India’s trade with ASEAM. India’s exports face higher tariffs in the ASEAN market than the Chinese exports to ASEAN. Alerting us to the significance of Vietnam’s foreign trade agreements with the European Union, he makes a case for India and the EU to conclude an FTA or Indian products will lose out to Vietnamese products. In summary, Dr Kumar explains how international trade is becoming more preferential, strategic, and reciprocal in nature, opposite to what the WTO-regulated MFN-based trade had to offer.
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In this episode, Dr Happymon Jacob speaks with Dr Jabin T. Jacob (Associate Professor, Department of International Relations and Governance Studies) and discusses the significance of the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi’s unannounced visit to India. Dr Jabin Jacob argues that such visits should not occur without prior discussion of the outcomes, especially in light of outstanding issues along the Line of Actual Control. He is critical of India’s lack of response to Chinese transgressions and makes a strong case for punitive actions if India is to deter Chinese salami-slicing tactics in the future. Dr Jacob explains the uniqueness of the Chinese Party-State, where regime interest prevails over national interests and what it means for India-China strategic rivalry. He describes the ideological reasons behind Chinese support for authoritarian Russia against the West and delineates the complexities of the ongoing crisis in Ukraine and the lessons China might learn from it.
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In this episode, Dr Happymon Jacob speaks with Dr Rahul Roy-Chaudhury (Senior Fellow for South Asia, The International Institute for Strategic Studies, London) about the growing significance of the Indian Ocean in the Indian strategic imagination. He explains the economic and energy dependence based on sea-lanes of communication that criss-cross the Indian Ocean. While he lauds India’s appointment of its first National Maritime Security Coordinator earlier this year, he also draws attention to glaring inadequacies in India’s naval capacity. Focusing on the geopolitics of the Western Indian Ocean, he highlights the importance of deepening India’s security relationship with the littoral states and extra-regional powers like the UK, US, and France, among others. He makes a case for greater cooperation between India and the UK in the Western Indian Ocean. He also stresses the importance of maritime domain awareness, maritime surveillance, and intelligence-sharing. Dr Roy-Chaudhuri also addresses the China factor and its growing influence in the Indian Ocean.
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In this episode, Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks with Dr. Toby Dalton (Co-Director and Senior Fellow of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment) and discusses the Indo-Pacific Strategy of the United States document released in February 2022. Dr. Dalton explains President Biden’s China policy and the changing nature of the US alliance structure in the Indo-Pacific. He discusses the convergences and differences between the American and the Indian visions for the Indo-Pacific. He also explains how the US Indo-Pacific strategy can be a holistic approach to contain China’s intention to recenter the international order while shaping the strategic environment in which China operates. He dwells on the possible implications of the ongoing crisis in Europe on the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific and the lessons regional powers might draw from it.
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In this episode, Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks with Prof. Ian Hall (Professor of International Relations and the Deputy Director (Research) of the Griffith Asia Institute, Australia) about Australia’s approach and vision for the Indo-Pacific and the evolution of India-Australia relations. Prof. Hall discusses the differences in the Indo-Pacific imaginations of the US, Australia, India and Japan and outlines the complementary nature of Quad and AUKUS. He also highlights the multifaceted nature of the China challenge and discusses the Quad’s diversified focus on supply-chain resilience, critical technologies, and so on. Prof. Hall weighs in on the ongoing Ukraine crisis, the nature of Russia-China relations, and their implications for the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific.
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In this episode, Dr. Happymon Jacob interviews Amb. P.S. Raghavan (Retired Indian Diplomat and India’s Former Ambassador to Russia) about the ongoing crisis over Ukraine. He argues that much of it is manufactured drama and the endgame for Russia is to correct what it perceives as security imbalance in its relations with the West and reach an accommodation with the US and its European allies. He also argues that a thaw in US-Russia relations suits Russia and India. Russia does not want to be an appendage of China and would like to develop relations with India independently.'
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In this episode, Dr. Happymon Jacob interviews Amb. Rajiv Bhatia (Rtd. Indian Diplomat & Distinguished Fellow, The Gateway House) about India’s approach towards Myanmar since the military coup a year ago. He argues that the stability and security of Myanmar are of crucial importance for the stability and security of India’s Northeast. Amb. Bhatia identifies the key elements of India’s Myanmar policy, including the preference for a political settlement and a return to democracy. The major challenges before India such as the influx of refugees fleeing Myanmar and preventing the use of Myanmar’s soil by insurgent groups active in India's Northeastern states.
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In this episode, Dr. Happymon Jacob hosts a live discussion on the 50th anniversary of the Bangladesh Liberation War of 1971 with an eminent panel that includes Amb. Chandrashekhar Dasgupta (Former Indian Diplomat & Author of ‘India and the Bangladesh Liberation War’), Amb. Ahmad Tariq Karim (Bangladesh’s Former High Commissioner to India), and Lt. Gen. (Rtd.) Vijay Oberoi (India’s Former Vice Chief of Army Staff). The discussion revisits the political, military, diplomatic, and humanitarian aspects of the events of 1971.
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In this episode, Dr Happymon Jacob speaks with Mr Nandan Unnikrishnan (Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi) about the recently concluded India-Russia annual summit, the inaugural 2+2 dialogue between their foreign and defence ministers, and the state of India-Russia bilateral relations generally.
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In this episode, Dr. Happymon Jacob discusses the legacy of the 9/11 attacks on its twentieth anniversary with Prof. C. Raja Mohan (Director, Institute of South Asian Studies, National University of Singapore), Tamanna Salikuddin (Director of South Asia Programs at the United States Institute of Peace), and Max Rodenbeck (South Asia Bureau Chief, The Economist). They discuss the implications of the attacks and the war on terror on the global balance of power and regional geopolitics. The discussion looks into the implications of US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the return of the Taliban and increasing Chinese influence in the region. The future of the US-led liberal international order after two decades of 9/11 and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan is debated, and what it means for human rights, humanitarian intervention and the responsibility to protect is discussed.
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In this episode, Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks to Mr A.S. Dulat (former special director of the IB, and former Chief of the R&AW) and Lt. Gen. Asad Durrani (former Director-general of the Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan, and former Director-General of Pakistan Army's Military Intelligence) to discuss the unfolding events in Afghanistan. In quick succession, the Taliban forces have taken over most of the major provincial capitals and are now entering Kabul from all sides according to the Afghan interior ministry. According to a Taliban leader in Doha, the fighters will wait away from the main district centres till a peaceful handover is complete. They have also been ordered to refrain from violence and offer safe passage to those wishing to leave Kabul. As the last bastion of the Afghan government falls, what will be the fate of Afghanistan and its people, and the consequences of the Taliban rule for the region?
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In this episode, Dr. Happymon Jacob speaks to Mr A.S. Dulat (former special director of the IB, and former Chief of the R&AW) and Lt. Gen. Asad Durrani (former Director-general of the Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan, and former Director-General of Pakistan Army's Military Intelligence) to discuss the unfolding events in Afghanistan. In quick succession, the Taliban forces have taken over most of the major provincial capitals and are now entering Kabul from all sides according to the Afghan interior ministry. According to a Taliban leader in Doha, the fighters will wait away from the main district centres till a peaceful handover is complete. They have also been ordered to refrain from violence and offer safe passage to those wishing to leave Kabul. As the last bastion of the Afghan government falls, what will be the fate of Afghanistan and its people, and the consequences of the Taliban rule for the region?
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In this episode, Dr Happymon Jacob speaks with Prof. Rajesh Rajagopalan (Professor of International Politics at Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi) about the role of morality in statecraft and international relations. Prof. Rajagopalan argues that while most states justify their international behaviour and foreign policy in moral terms, and perceive themselves as moral actors, their actions are driven by self-interest. Moral causes and behaviours are pursued to the extent that they do not conflict with interests and come without high costs. He sees no moral restraint in states’ dealing with reprehensible and immoral actors if it serves their interests, keeping in mind long-term costs and benefits. Prof. Rajagopalan separates international behaviour of states which is interest-driven and their domestic policies which are constitutionally bound but he also agrees that immoral international behaviour may seep into domestic politics and is, therefore, a danger to guard against.
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In this episode, Dr Happymon Jacob discusses the looming crisis in Afghanistan post-US withdrawal with Tamanna Salikuddin (Director of South Asia Programs at the United States Institute of Peace). Ms Salikuddin provides a succinct assessment of the 20-year-long US war on terror in Afghanistan, its consequences and unfolding implications. She highlights the US successes in counterterrorism while acknowledging failures vis-à-vis the larger goal of nation-building. Her prognosis of the Afghan scenario post-US withdrawal is grim. On Taliban’s evolution over the past two decades, she maintains that they are not a monolith, and finds them militarily stronger, economically more resilient, and diplomatically deft but no less puritanical or regressive in their social outlook. She argues that a political settlement that includes the Taliban and other actors presents the best case scenario for Afghanistan, failing which the country could descend into chaos.
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In this episode, Dr Happymon Jacob speaks with Zahid Hussain (Senior Pakistani Journalist and Author) about the future of Afghanistan in the aftermath of US military withdrawal. Mr Hussain provides a succinct view of hostilities already underway in different parts of Afghanistan. He also provides a measure of different possibilities ranging from a full-blown civil war to a political settlement. He is sceptical about a sweeping Taliban takeover of Afghanistan as it happened in the mid-1990s. The overall ability of the Afghan government to survive and fight back would depend on continued support from the United States, he argues. Mr Hussain also provides a nuanced picture of the Taliban today, as against its earlier more puritanical avatar. He unpacks Pakistan’s Afghan predicament in detail and provides an assessment of US-Pakistan relations going forward. As far as India’s Afghan policy is concerned, he sees no harm in India talking to the Taliban.
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PM Narendra Modi-J&K leaders meeting today Live News Updates: This was a crucial meet, first since the stripping of the special status of J&K and its bifurcation into two Union Territories in 2019, towards the return of elected representatives and the holding of Assembly elections. Dr. Happymon Jacob conversation with The Wire's Founding Editor Siddharth Varadarajan and Lt Gen (Retd) DS Hooda.
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