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It seems like every day the tech industry comes out with a "brilliant new idea” that turns out to be merely a reinvention of a mundane product that already existed. Tech bros keep reinventing the bus, but they have also taken to reinventing the tea pot, the toothbrush, the lunchbreak and the public park. In today's video we look at the tech products that either already existed or should never have existed.
Patrick's Books
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The British government is closing in on a bailout of the Chinese owned British Steel in which taxpayers would inject £600 million pounds into the group.
British Steel is one of only two manufacturers of “virgin steel” in the UK alongside Tata Steel at Port Talbot in Wales which some industry experts claim is strategically important. Tata is in more advanced talks of its own with the government over a similar bailout.
The British government wants the steel mills to switch from using blast furnaces to more environmentally friendly electric arc furnaces at a cost of £1.25 billion to help achieve Britain's net zero goals.
Unions warn that even if the deal is approved, 2,300 jobs would be lost, because EAF is far less labor-intensive than traditional production methods.
Patrick's Books
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
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Useful Links
Ed Conway Blog:
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In recent years, a number of companies have been caught claiming to use artificial intelligence while in reality, outsourcing this work to humans. The SEC recently settled with two funds who were misleading investors about their use of the technology. While artificial intelligence has been widely used in industry for decades, not all companies have been truthful with their claims of AI breakthroughs.
In today's video we discuss to what extent have big firms been faking AI?
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Sign up for Compounded Daily at this link: https://www.compoundeddaily.com/
I welcome my friend Adam Robinson to the podcast, the person who has had possibly the most interesting career of anyone I know. He was a teenage Chess prodigy who trained with Bobby Fischer as Fischer prepared to play Boris Spassky for the 1972 world championship – in what has gone on to be known as The Match of The Century. He was an undergrad at The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania and later earned a law degree at Oxford University. He cracked the SAT and other standardized tests launching the Princeton Review Company – which he later sold. He is an Artificial Intelligence pioneer, a quantitative trader, a New York Times best-selling author, and an all-round master of strategy. His company Robinson Global Strategies provides macro research to some of the world’s most successful hedge funds. Adam's newest book How Not to be Stupid is one of the very few books to be endorsed by Warren Buffett.
Follow Adam on Twitter: https://x.com/iamadamrobinson
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Over the next five years the largest cohort of the baby boomer generation will reach retirement age and while it is broadly assumed that they will have comfortable retirements, a recent analysis of their assets shows that more than half of this final group of boomers are not financially prepared to retire whatsoever.
In today's video we look at how American retirees found themselves in this position, and how much you need to save to have a comfortable retirement.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Additional Reading:
While America Aged by Roger Lowenstein: https://amzn.to/4fLLZ45
Peak Boomers Paper: https://www.protectedincome.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/Peak-Boomers-Econ-Impact-Study-ALI-RII-Shapiro-Stuttgen-EMBARGOED-Apr-18-2024-041924.pdf
Fed Survey: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/scf/dataviz/scf/chart/#series:Retirement_Accounts;demographic:agecl;population:4;units:have;range:1989,2022
Private pensions in the United States: Gambling with retirement security: https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of-social-policy/article/private-pensions-in-the-united-states-gambling-with-retirement-security/F6599767174900C76CF00146B9F295C4Support the show
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This Monday was one of the worst days for global stock markets in years, Stocks in the US, Europe and Japan tanked on Friday and again on Monday before a partial rebound. Bond yields and foreign exchange rates swung around wildly too.
The Magnificent seven stocks lost about $1 trillion dollars in value in just two days. So, what exactly is going on in markets, and how much should we worry?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
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Big Tech is slashing hundreds of thousands of jobs and blaming artificial intelligence, but there may be more to the story than that. Intel just announced fifteen thousand layoffs yesterday, causing their stock price to plunge. Big Tech, who for over a decade provided all sorts of employee perks may no longer be the dream place to work.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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The activist short seller Andrew Left surrendered to authorities in Los Angeles on Monday to face federal criminal securities fraud charges, a spokesman for the U.S. Attorney’s Office there said.
Both the SEC and a federal grand jury in the Central District of California brought charges against Andrew Left a prominent activist short seller with multiple counts of securities fraud for a long-running market manipulation scheme reaping profits of at least $20 million.
As alleged in the indictment, Left commented on publicly traded companies, asserting that the market incorrectly valued a company’s stock and advocating that the current price was too high or too low. Left’s recommendations often included an explicit or implicit representation about Citron’s trading position—which the regulators claim created the false pretense that Left’s economic incentives aligned with his public recommendation—and a “target price,” which Left represented as his valuation of the company’s stock. Left is accused of working with hedge funds to short and distort stock prices.
Andrew Left became well known in 2021 as one of the hedge funds short GameStop stock.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Useful Links:
Christopher Bloomstran Tweet https://x.com/ChrisBloomstran/status/1801325325390893492
Matt Levine Article: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-07-26/andrew-left-wasn-t-short-for-long?
John Hempton Substack: https://johnhempton.substack.com/p/some-thoughts-on-the-andrew-left
FT Marc Cohodes: https://www.ft.com/content/01b765c2-854e-11ea-b6e9-a94cffd1d9bf
PAPERS
Massa Zhang & Zhang Paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2124464
Short & Distort Paper: https://scholarship.law.columbia.edu/faculty_scholarship/2782/
Complaints
SEC Complaint: https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2024-89
Department of Justice Indictment: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/activist-short-seller-charged-16m-stock-market-manipulation-schemeSupport the show
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A Texas District Judge Andrew S. Hanen has dismissed all charges against seven social-media influencers the SEC and Justice Department had accused of perpetrating a “stock manipulation scheme” on Twitter and Discord, ruling that the prosecution failed to state an offense in a case alleging securities fraud.
The influencers were accused of securities fraud through a Pump and Dump scheme as they posted on social media that they owned or were buying various penny stocks but did not state that they were selling the stock as their followers bought. In his ruling, Judge Hanen rejected the government’s argument that this constituted a crime and concluded that the defendants “did not deprive investors of their money or property through any misrepresentation.”
Professor Sue Guan Paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4857628
SEC Press Release: https://www.sec.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022-221
Court Opinion: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rmMOgPQgozIw/v0
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The Land That Never Was By David Sinclair: https://amzn.to/4eVC3EDSupport the Show.
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U.S. stocks are expected to get a short-term boost in the aftermath of the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump over the weekend, as analysts say the likelihood of his victory in November has increased. Trump's lead has extended itself since Biden's poor debate performance two weeks ago which left his biggest supporters concerned about the president's ability to handle the rigors of another four years in office.
Will the stock market do better under Trump or Biden?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Additional Resources
Victor Niederhoffer – Presidential Elections & The Stock Market
Trevor Jennewine: Article
Political Cycles & Industry Returns – Stangl & Jacobsen Paper
Hidden Forces - Henry Olsen InterviewSupport the show
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Gregor MacGregor was a Scottish soldier, adventurer, and con man who invented a Central American country called “Poyais,” in 1820 which he claimed to rule as the “Cazique.” MacGregor attempted to draw British and French investors and settlers to his fictional country. Hundreds invested in Poyaisian government bonds and land certificates, while about 250 emigrated to MacGregor’s invented country. MacGregor’s Poyais scheme has been called one of the most brazen confidence tricks in history.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Patrick Boyle on YouTube
The Land That Never Was By David Sinclair: https://amzn.to/4eVC3EDSupport the show
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Every year, people around the world lose millions of dollars to a sophisticated scam known as “the pig butchering romance scam”.
The scam takes its name from the victims, who the scammers call “pigs” that they "fatten up" before slaughter. It usually begins with a text message that appears to be a wrong number. People who respond are lured into a long conversation with a good-looking and wealthy stranger who eventually offers to teach them how to make money with crypto investments. The investments are (of course) fake, and once victims send enough of their money, the scammers disappear. Victims frequently lose their life savings, and often the crime goes unreported because the victim is so embarrassed by what happened. A Kansas banker embezzled almost $50 million dollars from his bank as part of a pig-butchering scam, leading to the bank's failure.
In the bestselling book - Number Go Up by Zeke Faux, it was revealed that the people sending the messages are frequently victims themselves. In today's video we explore how the scam works and why cryptocurrencies like tether are to blame for the huge scale of this crime.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Zeke Faux - Number Go Up: https://amzn.to/3XJV7Q1
BBC Pig Butchering Documentary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bW4wYV0V-5s
Griffin & Mei Paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4742235#:~:text=The%20perpetrators%20interact%20freely%20with,Binance%2C%20Huobi%2C%20and%20OKX.Support the show
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Millionaires are leaving the UK faster than any country in the world other than China, new data shows.
According to the Henley Private Wealth Migration Report, 9,500 millionaires, defined in US dollar terms are leaving the UK this year. Only China - which has more than twice as many people with seven-figure net worths - saw more millionaires leave.
This is a new record outflow for the UK, with London expected to be especially hard hit. The top destinations for millionaires leaving the UK include Paris, Dubai, Amsterdam, Monaco, Geneva, Sydney, and Singapore, as well as retirement hotspots such as Florida, the Algarve, Malta, and the Italian Riviera.”
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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Demetri Kofinas came up with the term Financial Nihilism in 2019, describing it as a philosophy that treats the objects of speculation as though they are all intrinsically worthless.
Financial nihilism according to Demetri represents an ideological standpoint that questions the value and legitimacy of financial systems, markets, and even the concept of money itself. It doesn’t involve a simple disregard for fundamental reality but a contempt for all fundamentals. The point of view is that the entire system is a scam, and you should thus only view financial markets and prices as a casino.
The rise of meme stocks like GameStop and cryptocurrencies are symptoms of this point of view, where pumping financial products in a zero-sum game has become a style of investing for many of millennials who view it as a way to get rich in an essentially meaningless world.
John Authers argued in Bloomberg that, the latest bout of speculation, and especially the extraordinary excitement at GameStop, unlike prior bubbles has a different emotional driver: anger.
In today's video Patrick explores what got us here and how might this idea affect society.
Demetri Kofinas - Hidden Forces link: https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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India’s stock market took its worst tumble in four years after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP lost its parliamentary majority in a surprise outcome.
This result means that Modi will need to rely on smaller parties to form a governing majority in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India’s parliament, raising uncertainty about the Indian leader’s ability to pursue his pro-business agenda.
Surprise election results in Mexico and South Africa also shook markets over the last week. Should investors worry about the effect elections can have on markets?
Manoj Pradhan on Twitter: https://x.com/ManojPradhanTHM
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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Trolls of Wall Street on Amazon: https://amzn.to/4e40D5M
An interview with Nathaniel Popper the author of Trolls of Wall Street - How the Outcasts and Insurgents Are Hacking the Markets. Trolls of Wall Street is a new book telling the story of an improbable gang of self-proclaimed “degenerates” who made WallStreetBets into a cultural movement that moved from the fringes of the internet to the center of Wall Street, upending the global financial markets and changing how an entire generation thinks about money, investing, and themselves.
It tells the story of the people like Keith Gill (known online as Roaring Kitty) who made and lost millions, battling with each other—and with Wall Street—for power and status. It is a sobering account of how millions of young Americans became obsessed with money and the markets, casting a long and lasting influence over finance, politics, and popular culture.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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Red Lobster was America’s largest casual dining seafood chain, with almost 600 locations across the United States and Canada. Its bankruptcy was announced earlier this week.
The bankruptcy declaration insinuates that the chains equity owner who was also their biggest seafood supplier might have decided that their equity stake in the business was worthless, but that they could extract some extra value from the company before it declared bankruptcy by selling them a lot of extra shrimp, leading to the uneconomical "Endless Shrimp" deal at Red Lobster.
The decision to make the $20-dollar endless shrimp deal a permanent menu item is said to have led to an $11 million dollar loss.
The bankruptcy declaration says that “the Debtors are currently investigating the circumstances around these decisions.”
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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Over a four-day period Japan is suspected to have carried out two interventions to support the yen at an estimated cost of $59 billion dollars.
The first intervention came after the yen fell below 160 to the dollar for the first time in 34 years. The second intervention came a few days later after Jerome Powell announced that a rate hike was unlikely to be the Fed’s next interest-rate move.
The simplest explanation for the declining yen is that it is entirely driven by Japanese interest rates being low relative to other developed markets. People take their money out of the yen which is yielding 0 and put it in dollar denominated bonds to earn 5% - leading to a decline in the yen, but my friend Manoj Pradhan at Talking Heads Macro argues that this is a lazy oversimplification and that the Yen and Japanese markets are possibly the most interesting story in macroeconomics today.
Manoj Pradhan on Twitter: https://x.com/ManojPradhanTHM
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Europe’s largest oil and gas company Shell was accused in an investigative report from Greenpeace Canada of selling millions of carbon credits tied to CO2 removal that never took place.
Let’s look at what Shell did, how carbon offsets work, and how environmentally beneficial they actually are.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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The Société Générale Delta One Desk is back in the news after two traders were dismissed - accused of placing unauthorized risky options trades.
Kavish Kataria – one of the traders in question - attacked the banks leadership with a LinkedIn post on Thursday saying the “entire risk team and other bosses” were equally responsible for the trades and complaining that his bonus had been withheld.
The Delta One desk that Kataria worked on is the same trading desk where rogue SocGen trader Jérôme Kerviel caused a $5.2 billion dollar loss in a 2008 scandal that caused the US Federal Reserve to cut rates to stabilize markets.
SocGen told Bloomberg News earlier this week that two people based in Hong Kong had left last year — a trader and a team leader — after a “one-off trading incident, which didn’t generate any profit impact and led to appropriate mending measures”.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
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