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With just hours until polling places open for the November 5th presidential election, this week's guest is analyst Amy Walter to provide her insights and instincts heading into Election Day. The editor and publisher of The Cook Report with Amy Walter, Amy has been a constant presence writing and thinking about US elections for nearly three decades. In this conversation, she goes deep on her thoughts on the presidential race, her take on both the Senate and House, and narratives she expects to emerge post-election. This is a smart and expansive preview from a top analyst on the eve of an incredibly competitive and consequential election.
IN THIS EPISODE
Amy starts with her initial table-setter on expectations in the presidential race...
What is Donald Trump's ceiling of support?
Rationales for both a Harris win and a Trump win...
Is this the closest presidential race 3-4 days out that Amy has covered?
Amy's theory that, for many voters, the presidential election boils down to "controlling risk"...
Why are we in an era of consistently 50-50 races?
Which candidate is more likely to over-perform the polls?
The one Rust Belt and one Sun Belt state Amy feels will be the most predictive of the overall result?
Why early vote analysis is like shaking gift boxes before Christmas?
What is different in Trump's 2024 campaign compared to '16 and '20?
Amy's take on the truncated Harris campaign and its closing message?
How both Democrats and Republicans would respond to a presidential loss?
Amy's range of expectations for the Senate and the race that would be most predictive of which side is having a good night...
How the NRSC has tried to avoid mistakes from the '22 cycle...
How the issue of abortion could be a stumbling block for a good Republican night in the Senate?
Amy's take on late-breaking Senate races in Texas and Nebraska...
Amy returns to her roots as a "House homer" to gauge the state of play in the House...
Amy's prediction of when the news desks will call the race and declare a President-Election...
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This is a different type of episode this week as I have borrowed the audio from a panel I was part of last Thursday (10/24/24) to discuss the upcoming 2024 elections. This panel is hosted by the government affairs firm Husch Blackwell Strategies, and the video link can be accessed here. Moderating the discussion is Husch Blackwell CEO Andy Blunt and I'm also joined by election analyst Jim Ellis - whose background includes working for the GOP House leadership and, for decades, has been an analyst and advisor to corporations and trade associations.
The discussion was recorded last Thursday and covers a lot of ground...the current state of the presidential race, the different electoral college paths available to both candidates, what can be gleaned from the early vote, what to expect in the House and Senate races, recent polling trends, late-breaking surprise races, the prediction markets, and much more. -
Eksik bölüm mü var?
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Forrest Claypool has one of the most impressive and varied resumes in politics...early campaign and operative work with David Axelrod and Rahm Emanuel, two-time Chief of Staff to the mayor of Chicago, opposing Barack Obama in mock debates in his 2004 Senate race, running the Chicago Park District, Chicago Transit Authority, and Chicago Board of Education, elected to the Cook County Board, intense races against the Chicago machine, and now author of the new book - The Daley Show - about the 20+ year tenure of Chicago Mayor Richard M. Daley. In this conversation, Forrest talks his path from small town Southern, IL to breaking into politics to his time running major city departments to being an integral part of the Chicago machine before running against the machine a few years later and deep into the last 40+ years of Chicago politics through the impact of the mayoralty of Richard M. Daley.
IN THIS EPISODE...
Forrest's roots in Southern Illinois and the state politics of his youth in the 60s and 70s...
Forrest connects with David Axelrod at the start of the Axelrod rise as a national media consultant...
The x-factor that made Axelrod such an effective political consultant...
One of Forrest's favorite races he worked on as a political consultant...
Forrest plays the role of Alan Keyes in Barack Obama's 2004 debate prep...
Forrest's initial impressions of the 1990s Barack Obama who started making the rounds in Chicago politics...
Forrest remembers the Rahm Emanuel he first worked with in the mid-1980s...
Of the numerous positions he held around Chicago and Cook County politics, which did Forrest find most exciting...
Why Forrest turned down an almost sure-thing, safe seat in Congress...
What he learned when he ran for Cook County office himself...
The Forrest Claypool 101 on effectively running organizations...
His evolution as a foot soldier of the Daley machine to a prominent machine critic and opponent...
What made Forrest write his new book, The Daley Show, about the 20+ year mayoralty of Richard M. Daley...
How the original Mayor Daley, Richard J. Daley, dominated Chicago politics for decades...
The story of Richard M. Daley in the political wilderness after the death of his father, and how he rose to the mayor's office via an "outside game"...
Details on how the Chicago mob controlled an entire city ward into the 1980s and 90s...
The importance of "abandoned cars" in running a city...
The most important accomplishment of the Mayor Richard M. Daley era...
The biggest "missed opportunity" from Daley's time as Mayor...
The "most brilliant ploy" Forrest saw from Mayor Daley during the 1990s wars over Chicago-area airports...
The story from Forrest's first race in Cook County, with his opponent trying to convince voters that Forrest (who is white) was a Black candidate...
How far one has to go back in Chicago politics to find election-counting interference...
Forrest's take on why Chicago is no longer "a city that works"...
Forrest's favorite story of the influential Chicago columnist, Mike Royko...
Forrest's must-see recommendations around Chicago for political junkies...
AND AKPD, Yasser Arafat, Thomas Barnes, Evan Bayh, Michael Bilandic, Rod Blagojevich, Jane Byrne, Jimmy Carter, council wars, Fred Cowan, Andrew Cuomo, John D'Arco, Richard Dennis, economic invalids, eye-glazing agencies, Paul Findley, Newt Gingrich, The Grateful Dead, iron-handed bravado, Brandon Johnson, Martin Kennelly, Martin Luther King, Lori Lightfoot, Machiavellian power plays, Ron Madison, Millennium Park, The Rolling Stones, John Stroger, Ed Vrdolyak, & more! -
Mark Udall, former Democratic US Senator and House member from Colorado, comes from the famed Udall family of the Mountain West - including his father, Congressman Mo Udall, and uncle, former Interior Secretary Stewart Udall under both JFK & LBJ. But Mark Udall largely stayed away from politics until his mid 40s - having an entire career within the outdoor leadership organization Outward Bound. However, once he flipped the switch to politics, his ascent was rapid: elected to the Colorado State House in 1996, the US House in 1998, and the US Senate in 2008. In this conversation, Senator Udall talks his famous political family, his own early relationship to politics, and memories of 20+ years in elected office that span both highs and lows - with great stories and insights from someone with one of the most unique arcs in American politics.
IN THIS EPISODE
Growing up between Tucson, AZ and Washington DC...Lessons about public service learned from his mother...
Growing up in a political family of with a Congressman for a father and Cabinet Secretary for an uncle...
The political legacy of his father, Mo Udall....
The famous friendship between John McCain and Mo Udall...Old Mountain West connections among the Udalls, Goldwaters, and Romneys...
The Udall brothers' opinions of both Presidents Johnson and Kennedy...Mark works New Hampshire for his father's 1976 presidential campaign...
The 20-year career he had before entering politics...
Running for office for the first time in his late 40s...
Mark rolls out his Bill Clinton impression...
What surprised him most - both positives and negatives - about serving in Congress...
The behind-the-scenes machinations of why he didn't run for Senate in 2004 and did run in 2008...
Why he was caught flatfooted in his 2014 Senate re-election...
Memories of some of the most intense moments on the floor of the House and Senate...
The now-infamous role the issue of abortion played in his 2014 race against Cory Gardner...
Why he was one of the few members of Congress to list "no religious affiliation" in his bio...
The current projects he's most interested in...
The Mark Udall recommendations for traveling through Colorado...
AND 50 mile hikes, Michael Bennet, Sherry Boehlert, Hale Boggs, Jimmy Carter, Grover Cleveland, Rocky Colavito, Democratic bankers, Denver Nuggets, Don't Ask Don't Tell, William O. Douglas, Fort Wayne Pistons, James Garfield, Gabrielle Giffords, Gary Hart, Jay Inslee, Bobby Kennedy, David King, Lady Bird Johnson, Dick Lamm, John Larson, Monica Lewinsky, Bob McNamara, John McCormack, mercurial marriages, George Miller, Minneapolis Lakers, Minnie Minoso, the NBL, the NRA, Ben Nighthorse Campbell, Barack Obama, Tom Osborne, Outward Bound, Bill Owens, Nancy Pelosi, plural marriage, Harry Reid, Ranger Rogers, Roy Romer, George Romney, John Salazar, Ken Salazar, Pat Schroeder, Herb Score, Sonia Sotomayor, tough cookies, Mark Uterus, Tim Wirth, Willard Wirtz & more! -
Caleb Smith may be the only political operative who's worked for three consecutive US House Speakers. During over a decade on Capitol Hill, he worked with Speakers Boehner, Ryan, and McCarthy. In this conversation, Caleb talks his path to politics from managing a legislative race in small-town Kentucky to working in some of the most prime real estate at the US Capitol building. He goes in-depth on his time on the Hill - being in the early wave of digital political staffers, joining Speaker Boehner's staff, strengths and weaknesses of the last 3 GOP Speakers, witnessing the rise of Trump from within the walls of the GOP establishment, starting Drive Public Affairs, and much more from a participant in some of the most important political moments of the 21st Century.
IN THIS EPISODE
Growing up in Paducah, KY at an important crossroads of American politics...
Why a young Caleb trekked to DC to attend the memorial for Ronald Reagan...
The skill set Caleb picked up managing a motorcycle shop between campaign gigs...
Caleb spends a year working for prominent pollster & focus group maven Frank Luntz...
Caleb manages a winning hometown Kentucky legislative race, the lone D to R legislative flip of the cycle...
Caleb comes to the Hill as a "new media director" among the digital political revolution...
Caleb's first impressions of working for Speaker John Boehner...
Caleb's "GOP House Conference 101" of how House Republicans operate...
The GOP member Caleb describes as a "snake in the grass" (it's not Matt Gaetz)...
What sold John Boehner on embracing digital politics..
John Boehner meets the pope...
Caleb's memories of the chaos during the Boehner to Ryan Speaker transition and why Caleb stuck it out with Ryan...
The "really unpleasant" first interaction Caleb had with Paul Ryan...
Caleb on the unique skill-set that made Paul Ryan an effective House leader...
Being a fly on the wall of the House GOP leadership during the 2015-2016 rise of Donald Trump...
Paul Ryan's immediate Election Night reaction upon Trump's surprise victory...
Inside the development of the 2017 "Trump Tax Cut" bill...
Paul Ryan's reaction when John McCain scuttled Obamacare Repeal...
Caleb's insights into the Donald Trump and Paul Ryan working relationship...
Why Ryan steps down as Speaker and why Caleb stayed with new House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy...
Caleb on McCarthy's habit of being a "risk taker"...
Inside the toppling of Speaker McCarthy...
Could Patrick McHenry have won the Speaker's Gavel...
Caleb on one of Speaker Pelosi's strongest qualities...
The controversial high-profile House member Caleb believes will be a future GOP Leader...
Junior members Caleb finds especially impressive...
Caleb on the fundamental difference between House Republicans and House Democrats...
Why Caleb started Drive Public Affairs a few months ago...
AND the American Conservative Union, American University, antiquated radio addresses, Sharron Angle, The Better Way Agenda, Stephanie Bice, Kevin Brady, Tim Burchett, George HW Bush, George W. Bush, CPAC, Dave Camp, Joe Cannon, Eric Cantor, The Capitol Rotunda, Centre College, Jason Chaffetz, Michael Cloud, country clubs vs. truck stops, cults of personality, Howard Dean, debating at Oxford, dial tests, Domino's Pizza, fall guys, famous smokers, fiscal cliffs, The Freedom Caucus, Matt Gaetz, Barry Goldwater, Jeb Hensarling, French Hill, Erin Houchin, Jack Kemp, Sue Lowden, Nancy Mace, John McCain, Mark Meadows, Steve Mnuchin, mopeds, Jack Nicklaus, normalizing ideas, Ralph Norman, Rand Paul, Harry Reid, Marco Rubio, the SALT deduction, Tim Scott, sloven appearances, The Tonight Show.. & more!
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Mark Jablonowski is the President and Chief Tech Officer of DS Political - one of the leading digital ad firms for Democratic campaigns and progressive causes. Mark's roots in campaign tech go back to 2004 and he was deeply involved in the Obama 2008 primary and general election digital innovations. In this conversation, Mark talks his own path to politics starting in Alaska to Maine to the Obama '08 Chicago HQ and continuing to be on the front lines of the digital political evolution. In addition to his own story, Mark gives his takes on digital best practices and trends on subjects as varied as connected television, questions campaigns should ask their digital vendor, the death of the cookie, AI concerns, and much more on an exploding sector within the political world.
IN THIS EPISODE
Mark grows up in Anchorage, Alaska...
Mark is drawn to politics through the 2004 Alaska Senate race...
What it looks like to head up the IT department of a 2004 US Senate race...
Mark's early tech interest and building his own computer as a teenager...
How Mark connects with the 2008 Obama primary campaign...working from NH to TX to PA to IN to Chicago HQ...
Working as Obama 2008 "IT Special Projects Director" and the tech innovations of the '08 Obama team...
How Mark became President of the large digital firm, DSPolitical...
Mark's take on the common threads of what makes for a successful digital political firm...
The initiative of DS Political offering free digital ad inventory to down-ballot campaigns...
Mark's best practices on how campaigns should think about digital advertising...
The importance of "connected televisions" and being on "the biggest screen in the house"...
Misconceptions and unnecessary mistakes in the world of digital advertising...
Differences in Democratic vs. Republican digital approaches...
Insights into voters' digital habits and where to have the most impact...
The end of digital cookies which is changing the way digital politics operates...
Mark's concern about AI creating massive misinformation in digital ads...
The right type of people to succeed in digital politics...
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Bryan Bennett is the Senior Director for Polling & Analytics at The Hub Project and a pollster for Navigator Research who recently spearheaded a 4,000 sample survey among voters 18-34. In this conversation, Bryan talks his path to politics and polling and goes deep on this new massive project among younger Americans. This data unearths new findings on how and where younger voters get their news, views toward both parties and policy priorities, gauging the presidential race both before and after the Biden transition to Harris, comparing 5 different polling methodologies to reach voters, and much more from this massive new trove of polling data among younger Americans.
IN THIS EPISODE
Bryan's roots outside of Austin, TX and how the 2000 election and Iraq War drew him to politics...
Why Bryan gravitated toward polling and his insight as to what makes for an effective political pollster...
How Bryan came to Navigator Research, and its mission in the public opinion sphere...
Some of the influential work Navigator Research has done over the past few years...
The origin of Navigator's project of a 4,000 sample poll of voters under age 35...
The seeming disconnect among younger voters between partisanship and policy preferences...
What Bryan learned by testing 5 different polling methodologies among younger voters...
What is unique about economic sentiments among younger voters...
Some of the most surprising findings in this trove of data...
What this data reveals about how and where younger voters get their news...
What the data showed about a Biden vs. Trump re-match and how it's different with Kamala Harris atop the Democratic ticket...
The set of issues younger voters most prioritize...
The potential for 2024 polling error among younger voters that Bryan is monitoring...
What recent Battleground polling reveals about the 2024 presidential race...
Upcoming Navigator Research projects Bryan is most excited about...
Bryan details the best way to enjoy a few days in Austin, TX...& much more!
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Catching up this week with return guest David Nir, who for over a decade has been an influential election analyst and the creator of Daily Kos Elections. Within the past week, David has moved his analysis to an independent site - now called The Downballot. In this conversation, David provides an update on his transition: what is happening, why now, and David's long-term goals for The Downballot. Then, stay for my original conversation with David - originally released over three years ago in early 2021. David has a fascinating career arc that charts the rise of the online grassroots from a ramshackle group of political junkies in the early 00s to now being one of the pillars of the political universe.
IN THIS EPISODE…
Why David is launching The Downballot as a new independent, site?
Living through the downturn of the online ad economy...
Long-term goals David has the for The Downballot...
Elected officials who rabid political junkies...What was David’s first introduction to feminism?
How being the child of a Holocaust survivor has informed who David is…
Why David seeing a Geraldine Ferraro rally in 1984 was an ill omen for the ticket’s chances…
David’s early memories of Rudy Giuliani in NYC politics…
The candidate who taught David to avoid getting too attached to any individual politician…
How David fell in love with down-ballot races…
How David made the decision to forego a legal career to plunge full-time into politics…
How unlikely candidates in Kentucky and South Dakota kicked off the rise of the Democratic netroots…
How an "extra penny" let campaigns know the arrival of the progressive netroots…
Lavishing praise upon the DKE Daily News Digest and Elections Data…
David’s tips for candidates and campaigns who want to connect with the Daily Kos community…
The story of Daily Kos and the rise of Jon Ossoff…
David helps topple the “turncoat” IDC legislative coalition in New York…
What one requirement would have to be part of David’s online dating profile…
AND….
Brendan Boyle, Ben Chandler, Wes Clark, Howard Dean, David Dinkins, John Edwards, Marc Elias, Geraldine Ferraro, Rudy Giuliani, Kaili Joy Gray, Paul Hackett, Karen Handel, Stephanie Herseth, John Kerry, Jeff Klein, John Lewis, Rachel Maddow, Walter Mondale, Markos Moulitsas, Wiley Nickel, Jean Schmidt, Jeff Singer, Elliot Spitzer, Tim Tagaris, Trent Thompson, Elizabeth Warren, Stephen Wolf, AND MORE!
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Communications expert Tucker Eskew has been a participant in some of the most seminal moments in American political history over the course of the past 30+ years...a protege of the famed Republican strategist Lee Atwater, senior aide to the Bush 2000 win over John McCain in the fractious South Carolina primary, working in the White House the morning of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, a stint representing the Bush Administration at 10 Downing Street in London, one of Sarah Palin's lead handlers during her whirlwhind 2008 VP experience...among many other momentous experiences during his decades in and around politics. In this conversation, Tucker talks his path to politics and his time as both observer and player in some of the most important moments in recent American history.
IN THIS EPISODE
Tucker's roots as the son of a journalist growing up in the Southeast...
The DC internship that set him on a path toward working in politics...
A couple of his favorite Strom Thurmond stories...
Tucker, in his mid 20s, becomes Press Secretary for South Carolina Governor Caroll Campbell...
Tucker remembers lessons learned from his mentor - the famed GOP operative, Lee Atwater...
Tucker's role on the ground during the bruising, fractious 2000 South Carolina primary between Bush and McCain...
Tucker talks the strategic acumen of Karl Rove...
Tucker's role as a Bush spokesman in West Palm Beach during the 2000 post-election chaos...
Tucker recounts his amazing story of working in the White House on the morning of the 9/11 terrorist attacks...
Tucker works out of 10 Downing Street for months, partnering with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, in the aftermath of 9/11...
Tucker's stint as one of the senior handlers for Sarah Palin during her tumultuous 2008 VP experience...
Why John McCain had a sense of relief after losing the 2008 presidential race...
Lessons learned from 19 years as a partner at the corporate comms firm Vianovo...
AND Whit Ayres, the BBC, Doug Bailey, James Baker, Dan Bartlett, John Buckley, Blaine Bull, Alistair Campbell, Chad Man, Lon Chaney, Dick Cheney, Bill Clinton, the Coalition Information Center, Candy Crowley, Matthew Dowd, emergency bunkers, Ray Eskew, flashbulb moments, fog of war, Gerald Ford, Michael Gerson, the Greenville News-Piedmont, Albert Hawkins, Karen Hughes, Jesse Jackson, Greg Jenkins, Lafayette Square, Jim Lake, Joe Lieberman, Larry Lindsey, low bono, Mary Matalin, Bob McAllister, Anita McBride, Tim McBride, mimeographs, next man up, the News Literacy Project, Richard Nixon, Bob Novak, pocket doors, the Presidential Campaign Hotline, the Reagan/Bush 1984 war room, red light moments, Condaleeza Rice, the Roosevelt Room, Mark Sanford, South Lawn moments, sucker optimists, James Taylor, UPI, The University of the South, ugly babies, George Wallace, Jim Wilkinson & more! -
David Callahan is a prolific creator and thinker within Democratic politics. He helped start the progressive think tank Demos in the late 90s, founded the media outlet Inside Philanthropy as a Consumer Reports of sorts into the world of charitable giving, and more recently created Blue Tent - an advisory group to help progressive donors get the most bang for their buck. In this conversation, David talks his early days in politics focused on foreign policy, his next stint as a think-tanker trying to pull the Democratic Party left, and why he's more recently been focused on the world of political giving. David is one of the most informed people on the planet on all facets of the political donor world and provides a tour de force on both the current state of play and future trends to better understand how our politics are funded.
IN THIS EPISODE
Growing up in New York as the child of academics...
An early experience that showed David he was not cut out to be an activist...
A formative year spent at the liberal magazine, The American Prospect...
David talks getting his PhD and his recommendations for those considering academia...
David helps found the progressive think tank Demos and talks the role of think tanks in American politics...
What led David to start Inside Philanthropy, a media outlet dedicated to understanding political fundraising...
The disturbing trend in political giving that led David to start Blue Tent, a resource for progressive donors...
How David and Blue Tent determine where donors will get the most bang for their buck...
Why David is an advocate of giving to organizations instead of candidates...
David on the phenomenon of "rage giving"...Are donors pulling Democratic candidates to the left?
Has Democratic giving fallen off this cycle?
David's concern about too many advocacy groups and donor fragmentation on the left compared to more unanimity on the right...
David de-mystifies the world of big "donor advisors"...
David on the Soros factor on the left...
The rough balance of spending from the right vs. spending from the left...
The types of operatives who succeed in the donor advising space...
The political novel David wrote in the late 90s that eerily predicted elements of both the 9/11 attacks and the rise of a Donald Trump-like politician...
AND AOC, Stacey Abrams, Miriam Adelson, The American Enterprise Institute, The American Liberties Project, The American Prospect Magazine, Arabella Advisors, Joe Biden, bioethics, Michael Bloomberg, bureaucratic machinations, the Cato Institute, the Center for Voter Information, Bill Clinton, The Committee on States, credential firepower, the DLC, The Democracy Alliance, Michael Dukakis, The Economic Policy Institute, effective altruism, Federalist Society, Marcus Flowers, Focus for Democracy, Fredrick Forsyth, Forward Montana, Give Well, giving circles, Al Gore, Lindsey Graham, Stanley Greenberg, Jamie Harrison, Hastings-on-Hudson, the Heritage Foundation, Hezbollah, Indian Point Power Plant, Indivisible, the Koch Brothers, LUCHA, Mitch McConnell, Amy McGrath, Michigan United, Mind the Gap, Dustin Moskovitz, Movement Voter Project, neoliberal mindsets, The New America Foundation, Paul Nitze, NYPIRG, Beto O'Rourke, Open Markets, RCTs, Ronald Reagan, The Roosevelt Institute, Run for Something, saber-rattling, Sandinistas, Adam Schiff, Star Wars, the States Project, Swing Left, Marjorie Taylor Greene, transactional donors, Way to Win, Working America & more!
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Lisa MacLean, founder of Moxie Media - the first female-founded political direct mail firm in the U.S - talks her path to politics...starting in St Louis and then Vassar, to impactful DC internships, managing campaigns in California and eventually starting her own mail firm in the late 1990s that recently celebrated its 25th Anniversary. In this conversation, Lisa talks overcoming adversity as a young woman in politics, the nuts and bolts of how she started her own firm, some of her big races and wins, direct mail best practices and trends, and much more from her 30+ years as a top political operative.
IN THIS EPISODE
Growing up middle-class in the St. Louis suburbs...
The searing experience in 9th grade that drove home the importance of politics...
How the Senate vote to confirm Clarence Thomas changed the course of Lisa's career...
Lisa talks what it was like to go to college at Vassar in the late 80s...
Lessons learned during and after the 1992 "Year of the Woman"...
A personal story Lisa tells about a very difficult experience as a young woman in a media firm...
How Lisa decided to start her own direct mail firm and how she got it off the ground...
The biggests changes in direct mail over Lisa's 25 years in the business...
Some of the memorable races where Lisa feels smart direct mail made a difference...
The direct mail trends Lisa is monitoring...
Lessons Lisa learned in running and growing a successful mail firm over 25 years...
The story behind the name "Moxie Media"...
A glimpse into living in rural, coastal Washington (state)...
AND Jill Alper, Sasha Bruce, Andrea Campbell, Yadira Caraveo, Amy Chapman, Tony Coehlo, Michael Dukakis, free shrimp cocktail, Patty Garamendi, The Good Neighbor News, Lisa Grove, Anita Hill, Trish Hoppey, Mary Hughes, Tishaura Jones, Celinda Lake, Kevin Mack, Hal Malchow, Laurie Moskowitz, Pat Moynihan, Adnaan Muslin, Amy Pritchard, Rich Schlackman, Amy Simon, Heather Stone, Clarence Thomas, tomboys, Henry Underhill, Karen White, the Womens Information Network, Harriett Woods...& more!
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Kinky Friedman passed away yesterday, June 27 2024. This is a re-release of a Pro Politics Podcast episode with Kinky originally released June 4, 2021.
Kinky Friedman wore many hats in his 79 years - country music artist, bestselling novelist, political candidate, animal welfare activist, friend of multiple US Presidents, and a Texas and American icon. In this conversation from roughly three years ago, Kinky talks his connections to figures as varied as Nelson Mandela, Adlai Stevenson, John F Kennedy, Barbara Jordan, Bob Dylan, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush among others - and insight into the life of a truly American original. -
Debbie Cox Bultan has been working in Democratic politics for more than 30 years, including more than a decade at the Democratic Leadership Council and then helping start NewDEAL where she is now the CEO. At NewDEAL, she works to connect pro-growth progressive leaders and help raise their profiles and amplify their ideas. In this conversation, she talks about the Hill internship that drew her to a career in politics, lessons learned managing campaigns, her long tenure at the influential DLC think tank, what has gone in to starting and growing New Deal over the last several years, and some of her top priorities heading into the 2024 elections.
IN THIS EPISODEGrowing up in an apolitical, middle-class family in Sacramento...
A formative DC internship for her local Congressman, Vic Fazio...
Debbie's early experiences working in CA campaign fundraising and managing...
Debbie's 15 years working at the DLC, the Democratic Leadership Council & the impact the DLC had on American politics...
Starting the center-left NewDEAL non-profit to engage and promote young Democratic leaders...
Using Pete Buttigieg as an example to talk through the role NewDEAL can play in the rise of a public figure...
How Debbie has worked to develop to a well-rounded skillset to lead a national organization...
The "Freedom Agenda" NewDEAL has helped develop...
The role Debbie sees the issue of abortion rights playing in the '24 election cycle...
Advice for the next generation of political operatives...
Debbie's most unusual, successful work habit...
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Mickey Edwards served 16 years in Congress, as the first Republican to represent his Oklahoma City-based district in almost 50 years. Prior to his time in the House, he'd already made a mark as a leader in early days of "New Right" conservative organizations like the Young Republicans and Heritage Foundation. In this conversation, he talks his early days as a conservative political outsider in a Democratic state, the upset victory that propelled him to 8 terms in the House, his ascent within the GOP House Leadership, and how conservatism and Congress have changed since he left elected office.
IN THIS EPISODEGrowing up blue-collar in the Rust Belt, before his family moves to Oklahoma City...
The incredible story of surviving three gunshot wounds while being robbed....
What led him to gravitate to conservative politics in a one-party Democratic state...
His roots as part of the "New Right" in the 1960s and 1970s...
His early days as a newspaperman before entering politics exclusively...
How he beat established Republicans and Democrats in route to becoming the first GOP House member to represent OK City in nearly 50 years...
How he caused a furor from both parties in his first floor speech in the House...
Why Tip O'Neil is one of his political heroes...
Why he views GOP Speaker Newt Gingrich and Democrat Jim Wright as harmful to the institution of the House...
His occasional role in the 70s and 80s as a conduit between the establishment and activist wings of the GOP...
Memories of working with Presidents Carter, Reagan, and Bush...The entreaties he made to organized labor to try to forge common ground with the GOP...
Why he considers himself a "Jack Kemp Republican"...How he became the GOP Policy Chair, the 4th highest leadership position in the House GOP...
Why advocating for the Osage Tribe was his proudest moment as a House member...
His analysis of how the conservative movement and Republican Party have gotten off track...
His level of his pessimism that our political system will become increasingly dysfunctional...His thoughts on a career as a prominent Jewish Republican...
The current projects he's most passionate about...
AND Ethan Allen, the American Conservative Union, James Baker, Blair House, Lauren Boebert, cinder blocks, the Cleveland Guardians, Hillary Clinton, closed rules, Tom Delay, JR Ewing, Matt Gaetz, Barry Goldwater, Nathan Hale, Denny Hastert, Chic Hecht, Patrick Henry, The Heritage Foundation, Jewish Workmens' Circle, John Kennedy, Killers of the Flower Moon, Paul Laxalt, Look Magazine, Ed Madigan, Bob Michel, Richard Nixon, Oklahoma Sooners, night depositories, Ronald Reagan, Sandinistas, Chris Shays, shoe stores, the Sierra Club, John Sununu, tall grass praries, Marjorie Taylor Green, the Tea Party, Tinker Air Force base, Donald Trump, JC Watts, Paul Weyrich, Jim Wright, Lee Zeldin...& more!
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Heather Williams is the President of the DLCC, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee - the party committee focused on state legislative races and chambers. In this conversation, Heather talks her initial path to politics, working in state legislative races in Iowa, early days working in finance, the many hats she's worn at the DLCC, and now her current role as the organization's President. We also go in depth on why state legislative races are so critical, the current battleground map heading into the 2024 elections, the importance of the issue of abortion, and much more with a leading thinker on all things state legislative politics.
IN THIS EPISODE
How Heather became interested in politics growing up in Minnesota...
Heather's early political roots working in Iowa...What Heather learned from well-respected, Iowa Senate Leader Mike Gronstal...
What made Heather gravitate to working in the finance role in campaigns...
How Heather was drawn to the DLCC initially, almost 20 years ago...
Heather's take on what makes for a successful state legislative caucus operation...
The many hats Heather wears as President of the DLCC, and how she's tackled some that didn't come as naturally to her...
Legislative lessons learned after big Democratic losses in the 2010 election cycle...
Heather's favorite case studies for legislative wins coming out of the 2022 midterms...
Heather on her approach to leading a big political organization, despite not being a natural extrovert...
What Heather learned from her long-term predecessor at DLCC, Jessica Post...
Why it's important to "get comfortable with risk"...
How Heather thinks about the current partisan balance at the state legislative level and her priorities for the 2024 cycle...
The role that the abortion issue is currently playing in state legislative politics...
How the DLCC has to always have future redistricting in mind as a strategic priority...
Some of the most dynamic state legislative leaders currently on the scene...
Heather's advice to those just starting a career in politics...
Heather's most unusual, successful work habit...
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Hal Malchow was the incredibly innovative Democratic direct mail and fundraising consultant, who passed away several weeks ago. His final chapter was chronicled by Sasha Issenberg in Politico recently. Hal's was truly a creative mind, including breaking new ground on sophisticated political microtargeting and "social pressure" tactics to generate increased voter turnout. Joining this conversation are two of Hal's longtime business partners and friends - fellow direct mail consultants, Trish Hoppey and Rich Schlackman. We discuss Hal's political roots in progressive politics out of the Deep South, his innovative and curious political mind, the new approaches he developed, and the legacy he leaves behind after decades in the trenches of political targeting and communications.
IN THIS EPISODEMemories of meeting Hal for the first time...
Hal's path to DC from the Deep South...
The GOP luminary who was one of Hal's most trusted friends...
The innovations in political targeting and messaging spearheaded by Hal...
A few of the races and campaigns most impacted by Hal's creativity...
The origin of Hal's groundbreaking work on "social pressure" with two Ivy League academics...
Why Hal left day-to-day consulting after the 2010 cycle and how he stayed involved over the past decade...
Hal's most recent advice to Democratic campaigns...
Hal's motivations during the final chapter of his life...
Final thoughts on Hal's legacy in politics...
AND The Analyst Institute, bananas ideas, Evan Bayh, better mousetraps, Andrew Bleeker, CHAID analysis, Campaign Performance Group, Christina Coloroso, couch surfing, Mario Cuomo, Morris Dees, failed attorneys, fake-out mail, Vic Fazio, feedback loops, funny accents, Page Gardner, Alan Gerber, Al Gore, Christine Hopkinson, Herb Kelleher, Harry Kennedy, Ted Kennedy, Dean Levitan, Alex Malchow, microtargeting, Janet Napolitano, Gavin Newsom, paella, personalized yard signs, Mike Podhorzer, rat infestations, Rick Ridder, Mitt Romney, Ron Rosenblith, Santa Fe, Tom Sugar, Richard Viguerie, Voter Contact Services, Mark Warner, Michael Woolridge & more!
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Matt Robison has worn many political hats, among them working in numerous positions across Capitol Hill - including serving as Chief of Staff for three members. He also managed the successful 2012 upset re-election of Rep. John Tierney, after Tierney was named the GOP's top takeover opportunity that cycle. With roots in Manhattan, Matt had formative experiences in NYC public schools before a chance meeting with then Governor Bill Clinton in 1992 and an unlikey mentor at Harvard, nudged him to a career working in government. In this conversation, Matt talks his path to working in politics, goes deep on the best practices and unwritten rules of working on the Hill, and updates on his post-Hill life as a writer, radio host, and podcaster.
IN THIS EPISODE
How Matt's brief time in the NYC public school system informed his future outlook as a political operative...
Matt's memorable experience meeting Bill Clinton during the 1992 presidential campaign...
An unexpected political mentor and how Matt got his foot into the political door...
Matt successfully manages a Democratic House incumbent in 2012 who was the GOP's #1 target...
Matt's initial impressions of working on the Hill as a junior staffer...
Matt's best practices for running a Hill office...
The mistake Matt made as a Hill Chief that led to an attack ad against his member...
Why scheduling is the worst part of the job as a Hill Chief of Staff...
The one type of person Matt recommends never hiring as a Hill Chief...
Matt's advice for new Hill staffers...
Matt's take on the rise of unionized Hill offices...
Matt's estimate on the share of House members who are jerks...
Some of the most impressive members (both Dem & GOP) Matt saw during his time on the Hill...
Why Matt left the Hill after running three House offices...
Matt's "most interesting number in politics"...
Matt's current podcast, releasing three episodes a week...
Matt's strangest work habits...
AND Charlie Bass, Biafra, Lauren Boebert, Jeb Bradley, George HW Bush, Robert Caro, James Carville, General Comfort, Crash Davis, Mickey Edwards, David Gergen, Newt Gingrich, gross metaphors, half hugs, Paul Hodes, Rush Holt, Steny Hoyer, hybrid ads, illegal offshore gambling rings, Walter Isaacson, Steve Jobs, Gerry Kavanaugh, logistical nightmares, Nancy Mace, massive scandals, Chris Matthews, Mike Michaud, Mr. Miyagi, Tip O'Neill, Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, personal mishegas, philosophical questions, Reagan Democrats, Stu Rothenberg, South Park, the stupidest law in America, John Tierney, Donald Trump, unhinged maniacs, wicked sore throats...& more!
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Carlos Lozada is currently an Opinion columnist at The New York Times, after spending nearly 20 years at The Washington Post - where he earned the Pulitzer Prize in 2019 for criticism as The Post's nonfiction book critic. He's also an author, with his second book - The Washington Book - recently published: a collection of essays exploring what books by and about D.C. power players reveal about the people and political conflicts that define Washington. In this conversation, Carlos talks his path from Peru to South Bend to D.C., his accidental route to working in the press, some of his favorite Washington books and stories, and deeply mining his own insights into our current political moment.
IN THIS EPISODE
Carlos' personal journey from Lima, Peru to Washington D.C...
Carlos "gateway drug" books into the genre of Washington books...
How Carlos defines what exactly is a "Washington Book"...
Carlos weighs in on what he considers some of the earliest Washington Books...
Carlos' rave review of the U.S. Grant memoir...
The place of All The President's Men in the pantheon of Washington Books...
Carlos' favorite cliches from presidential campaign memoirs...
The D.C. corridors of power that are undercovered in Washington Books...
The Washington Books that are purely exercises in settling scores...
Carlos compares the Donald Trump of 2016 to the Donald Trump of 2024...
The Washington Books that never were that Carlos would love to read...
What reading Vladimir Putin revealed to Carlos about the Russian leader...
Carlos' 101 on sharp essay-writing...
Carlos waxes nostalgic about the late Washinton Post Outlook Section...
AND The 1619 Project, Alexis de Tocqueville, all sorts of minutia, Jody Allen, the American Enterprise Institute, Carol Anderson, animating impulses, The Appalachian Trail, Appomattox, asymmetric polarization, Peter Baker, Steve Bannon, Bob Barnett, beleaguered officials, Joe Biden, Joan Biskupic, Kate Boo, George H.W. Bush, Robert Caro, Jimmy Carter, Jesus Christ, Julie Davis, drop-down menus, enabling environments, farm foremen, The Federal Reserve, Craig Fehrman, Foreign Policy magazine, full absorption, Susan Glasser, Garret Graff, Lindsay Graham, Alan Greenspan, Stephanie Grisham, Maggie Haberman, Susan Hennessey, Fiona Hill, Dustin Hoffman, holy crap anecdotes, David Ignatius, joining-ness, Jurassic Park, Bob Kaiser, Ibram X. Kendi, the Kerner Commission, Adam Kushner, Robert E. Lee, Joe Lieberman, Steve Luxenberg, Thomas Mann, David Maraniss, Mark Meadows, mid-level authoritarian regimes, military duds, Mark Milley, Robert Moses, Robert Mueller, murdered darlings, murky institutions, The New York Review of Books, Kirstjen Nielsen, Notre Dame, Barack Obama, obligatory campaign memoirs, obscene crescendos, Norm Ornstein, parallel histories, the paralysis of power, George Pataki, Tim Pawlenty, policy wonks, John Pomfret, Robert Redford, Marco Rubio, Mark Sanford, Michael Schaffer, Brent Scowcroft, Michael Shear, silent Moscow, John Sununu, Barton Swaim, targeted excerpts, Mark Twain, Mario Vargas Llosa, velociraptors, Scott Walker, Ben Wittes, Michael Wolff, Bob Woodward...& more!
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Whit Ayres, founder and president of North Star Opinion Research, has been a leading GOP pollster for more than 30 years. First a high school teacher then an academic, he cut his political teeth as state Budget Director for South Carolina Governor Carroll Campbell. As a pollster, upset Senate victories for Georgia Senator Paul Coverdell in 1992 and Tennessee Senator Bill Frist in 1994 put Whit and his firm on the map. And since then he's worked for some of the biggest names in GOP politics: Strom Thurmond, Lamar Alexander, Marco Rubio, Bob Corker, Lindsey Graham, Ron DeSantis, among others. In this conversation, Whit talks his path to politics, favorite campaign stories, most famous clients, best polling practices, thoughts on the trajectory of the GOP and much more.
IN THIS EPISODEWhit's interest in politics sparks in an Ames, Iowa high school classroom...
The "searing experience" that influenced him in 1970s Berlin...
What Whit learned teaching 8th grade public school for three years...
Whit's gets his start in politics working for future South Carolina Governor Carroll Campbell...
How a vetoed pay raise encouraged Whit to take up political polling...
Whit's first big client, Paul Coverdell, wins an upset Georgia Senate race in 1992...
Whit's role in Lamar Alexander's insurgent 1996 GOP Presidential Primary campaign...
Whit helps re-elect South Carolina Senator Strom Thurmond at age 94 to his last term in the Senate...
Whit polls for Marco Rubio's underdog first US Senate race in 2010 over Florida Governor Charlie Crist...
Whit talks his role working for Ron DeSantis in 2018...and his take on the DeSantis 2024 presidential...
Whit remembers the 1994 Bill Frist upset Senate win in Tennessee...
Whit's take on the evolution of the GOP over the last decade...
Whit on what makes for an effective pollster...
Whit talks his time as active airplane pilot...
AND academic towns, ballistic donors, Bob Barr, the Bernoulli Principle, bionic men, Brexit, Pat Buchanan, William Jennings Bryan, Checkpoint Charlie, Chris Christie, Bill Clinton, commuting marriages, Bob Corker, Steph Curry, Davidson College, Bob Dole, Mr. Enquist, flaming underdogs, Wyche Fowler, Cheryl Glenn, hail fellow well mets, Alex Haley, Nikki Haley, Tom Ingram, Dan Judy, Ted Kennedy, Rush Limbaugh, Huey Long, Dick Lugar, mainframe computers, Jon McHenry, Mike Murphy, Barack Obama, plaid work shirts, Adam Putnam, Dick Riley, Ronald Reagan, Jim Sasser, Floyd Spence, the Tea Party, totalitarian regimes, Donald Trump, two scrubs, Vanderbilt Hospital, George Wallace, Susie Wiles, Joe Wilson, & more!
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Larry Huynh is a Partner and founder of Trilogy Interactive, a trailblazing digital political firm. His path to politics is anything but typical...his family coming to the U.S. as refugees after the Vietnam War, his academic background in biochemistry, and early career in the finance sector. In this conversation, Larry talks his unconventional route to working in politics, the 2004 campaign that changed his trajectory, early days of the political internet, plus some of his favorite case studies, best practices, and thoughts on digital trends that have the potential to change politics.
IN THIS EPISODEHow Larry's family had to flee Vietnam after the fall of Saigon...
Growing up a Texan in a low-income family in Houston...
Larry talks his pre-political interest in biochemistry and work in the financial sector...
The 2004 movement to Draft General Wes Clark into the presidential race pulls Larry into politics...
Memories of meeting General Clark the first time and the 2004 Clark campaign...
What contributed to the massive spike of online fundraising in the 2004 presidential campaign...
Larry starts one of the first digital political firms after the 2004 elections...
How Barbara Boxer's approach to Senate hearings blazed a path for effective use of digital political tools...
Larry on current trends in digital politics...
Larry talks studies his firm has done to better utilize AI...
Larry's perspective on the right type of people who should pursue a career in digital politics...
Larry talks his role as President of the AAPC and smart ways to utilize the organization...
AND alchemy, Bank of America, Stacey Bashara, best laid plans, Brent Blackaby, Blackrock, Doug Boxer, Howard Dean, Fort Chaffee, genetically-modified seeds, hard science, Jeff Hauser, jacked-up arms, Paul Johnson, Rose Kapolczynski, John Kerry, kill lists, Blanche Lincoln, Terry McAuliffe, John McCain, Jason McIntosh, Katie Merrill, Monsanto, MoveOn, Eli Pariser, Condaleeza Rice, Diana Rogal, Josh Ross, Randy Stearns, vice principals, windowless rooms....& more!
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