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This time of year is "outlook season" for Wall Street. Investors and analysts are publishing their S&P 500 and economic outlooks for next year. But were they right about this year? Are market forecasts useful for investors?
Well, I kept the receipts! In this episode I look back at a few from last year (including my own) and see how they turned out.
Understanding how difficult it is to predict the market has significant implications for how investors should build portfolios. I also discuss how to invest if you can't be right about the future all the time.
Start A Conversion with Capital Stewards: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation
Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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This episode covers common myths and misconceptions about alternatives. What are alternative investments? Are private – or alternative – assets just for the ultra-wealthy? What is (or is not) the secret sauce of private managers that drives the high returns you see in the media? How should you think about private assets in your portfolio?
1:54 - Myth 1 - Private Assets are only for the very wealthy and not for me.
2:32 - Myth 2 - New fund structure innovations mean that I don’t really have to give up access to my cash for 8-10 years.
4:25 - Myth 3 - Private managers have a secret and that allows them to drive special, secret returns that everyone must access!
7:32 - Myth 4 - Private Equity Funds borrow and lay-off lots of workers. They are just corporate raiders.
9:35 - Myth 5 - Private Debt has grown too fast and is the next Financial Crisis waiting to happen.
13:34 - Myth 6 - Some real estate developers and owners are struggling, now is a great time to try to get a deal by investing in a privately held REIT or fund.
15:59 - Myth 7 - All alternatives are designed to provide higher returns than public securities.
17:22 - Myth 8 - Alternatives are all the rage, so the fund I’m being sold should work out ok.
18:38 - Myth 9 - All private fund managers are created the same.
Start A Conversion with Capital Stewards: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation
Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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Year-end is upon us. The time to plan reduce your 2024 taxes and get your financial house in order is now, not after we turn the calendar page to 2025 and you can no longer act! Here is our year-end financial planning tips checklist with items that you should consider before the end of the year.
1:40 - Election Recap and Implications for Investors
3:19 - Retirement Account Planning and Contributions for IRAs and 401ks
5:12 - How to Reduce Taxes on Required Minimum Distributions (RMDs)
5:46 - ROTH Conversions
6:57 - Flex Spending Accounts (FSAs)
8:04 - Health Savings Accounts (HSAs)
9:41 - Mutual Fund Distributions / "Phantom" Distributions
11:28 - Tax Loss Harvesting
12:28 - Income Planning
14:19 - Charitable Giving Strategies
Start A Conversion with Capital Stewards: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation
Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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Will the market keep charging forward or are we on the brink of a recession? Soft landings are just that, slower, softer economic activity. They don’t feel great. What about the Mag 7 technology stocks, will they continue to lead the way forward? Will a Trump victory ignite more inflation and cause interest rates to rise? I cover all of this and more in our Outlook for the 4th Quarter.
Topics:
0:00 - Intro
2:11 - What’s Happened in Markets So Far This Year?
5:45 - Jobs Market
13:49 - Inflation
16:10 - What’s Happening in Real Life with Companies
18:44 - Stock Market Outlook - Mag 7 vs. the 493
22:15 - International Stocks and China
24:38 - Oil and Commodities
28:00 - Long-Term Interest Rates and Bonds
35:18 - Gold
36:55 - Election Impact
39:43 - Takeaways for Investors
Watch the Video w/ Charts -> https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/learn/year-end-2024-outlook-soft-landings-are-murky
Questions? Start a Conversation with Us -> https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation
Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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IRAs, 401ks, the TSP, ROTHs.
It’s a soup of acronyms. What's the right prioritization of accounts for saving? Which account should you spend from first in Retirement?
In this episode I’m diving into the main retirement account types and how to use them. I'll cover:
1) Accumulating wealth…when you’re saving for retirement and
2) Decumulating wealth...or spending your assets in retirement.
We will talk about contributions, backdoor contributions, income limitations and common misconceptions. So if you have questions about which retirement accounts to use – you’re not alone – and this is the episode for you.
Bucket Chart Referenced In Episode
Question? Start A Conversation with Capital Stewards
Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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Want to go deeper than cable news on the proposed economic policies of both presidential campaigns? I evaluate policy proposals with history and data as the guide to discover which proposals may really create growth and reduce inflation in the economy. Neither Vice-President Harris nor Former President Trump lay out all good or all bad proposals. Whether you consider yourself a republican, democrat or independent, you might be surprised at the proposals from your party. Lastly, I will discuss what the proposals mean for investors.
0:00 - Intro
2:47 - What Caused Inflation / How Policy May Impact Inflation Going Forward
13:00 - Tax Plans / Tax Burden / "Fair Shares" / Corporate Taxes
30:10 - U.S. Government Spending & Revenue / Tax on Tips
36:20 - Tariffs
42:55 - Raising the Minimum Wage
46:20 - Home Prices / Incentives to Build / Handouts to Buyers
49:05 - Price "Gouging"
51:01 - Infrastructure
52:01 - Energy
53:23 - Where the Race Stands / Conclusions
https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/
Start a Conversation: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation
Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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Is college worth the high cost? If my kids are going to college, how should I save and pay for college? In thie episode we dive into college planning. I cover:
2:15 - A framework to make college pay-off
9:20 - Saving for college, 529s, ROTH IRAs.
17:10 - Paying for college, strategies for asset ownership and the FAFSA
https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation
Resources:
https://ronlieber.com/books/the-price-you-pay-for-college/
https://collegereadyplan.com/
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I named the firm “The Capital Stewards” for a reason. I’ve discussed stewardship in other articles and podcast episodes, but this is a concept that we all wrestle with so I wanted to lay out a framework that I hope will be helpful as you think about stewarding the resources that you have been entrusted with. Whether you believe the Bible or not, I think this episode will be helpful in understanding how to think wisely about your money.
We discuss:
1) A Biblical Framework for Money
2) Generosity & Tithing
3) Investing Wisely
4) The Importance of "Doing the Hard Work"
Learn More or Connect: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com
© 2024 Capital Stewards, LLC. All rights reserved. Capital Stewards, LLC is a registered investment advisor. Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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In this episode, we discuss Annuities. Are they useful financial tools or are they terrible products?
Annuities are like any other financial product, they are useful in some situations and useless in others. The real issue with annuities, like other kinds of insurance, is that they are often sold and promoted by salespeople masquerading as “financial advisors.” So in this episode we are going to shine the light on annuities. We discuss:
1:16 - Finding quality, unconflicted advice about annuities and retirement income
2:38 - Types of Anuities
4:29 - Situations when Annuities Might Be Useful
10:29 - Fixed Index Annuities (FIAs), Variable Annuities and Situations When Annuities Don't Make Sense
Learn More About Us or Reach Out: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/
Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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Inflation is falling, unemployment is rising and after a strong start to the year,
economic data has turned noticeably weaker. Is a recession on the horizon? In
our outlook we will talk about inflation, the jobs market and the economy. More
importantly, we dive into what the current economic outlook means for investors
in stocks, bonds, real estate and other asset classes. So, if you are wondering
if a recession is coming, and how to invest now, this is the episode for you.
Learn More About Us: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/
(0:00) Intro: Is a recession on the horizon?
(0:43) Long-term returns
(3:05) What’s happened in markets so far this year?
(3:55) Economic growth slowing, but not in recession
(4:10) Big misconception – inflation is causing slow down
(5:35) Magnificent 7 Stocks
(6:24) Economy slowing down
(6:55) Jobs market outlook
(8:55) Is inflation going down?
(12:35) Why is some inflation good?
(13:40) U.S. Stock Market Outlook
(17:30) Global Stock Market Outlook
(21:19) Interest Rate and Bond Market Outlook
(23:13) Real Estate Outlook
(26:18) How to Invest Now
Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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As we move into political silly season, Social Security will become even more of a political hot-potato. Social Security garners lots of hot takes, not all of which are correct.
In this episode, my goal is to lay out:
How social security worksWhere the program is likely headed and What that means for participants both now and in the futureLastly, we will talk about how you should plan for social security, regardless of your income level.
Sources:
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59184
Learn More About Us: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/
Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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Retirement Planning 201. We dive deep into strategies for those considering retirement in the next 5 years. This is 201 because we go much deeper into taxes, healthcare, social security and investing than the typical retirement planning article. We discuss:
0:00 Your Most Valuable Resource (Time) + Working in Retirement
5:14 How long will you live? + How much will you spend?
8:10 When to Take Social Security
11:40 IRAs vs. 401ks vs. ROTH + Reducing Taxes In Retirement
15:00 Early Retirement Healthcare + Original Medicare vs. Medicare Advantage
18:40 Investing for Retirement
https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/st...
Data Sources:
Workforce Participation: Bureau of Labor and Statistics, Employee Benefit Research Institute, Greenwald Research
Retirement Spending: J.P. Morgan Chase, “Three Retirement Spending Surprises”
Life Expectancy: American Academy of Actuaries and Society of Actuaries, Actuaries Longevity Illustrator, http://www.longevityillustrator.org/, (accessed August 2022).
Social Security: Social Security Administration, Capital Stewards Analysis, Table shows figures assuming maximum benefit from social security, based on 2024 payout data and not adjusted for inflation.
© 2024 Capital Stewards, LLC. All rights reserved. Capital Stewards, LLC is a registered investment advisor. Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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Sit on an Investment Committee or Nonprofit Board?
Stewarding the generous gifts of your congregation and community is a high calling but often leaders get stuck facilitating their investment committee. Investing with an organization is very different, and often more challenging, than personal investing. In this episode we discuss overcoming 5 challenges we see with organizational investors.
3:04 - Slow and Ineffective Investment Committees
9:20 - Lack of Focus on Asset Allocation
10:52 - Under-Developed Investment Policy
13:20 - High Fees and Lack of Transparency
15:00 - No Performance Tracking
More on Investing for Churches, Non-Profits and Endowments: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/churches-non-profit-financial-advisor
Start A Conversation With Us: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation
© 2024 Capital Stewards, LLC. All rights reserved. Capital Stewards, LLC is a registered investment advisor. Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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Everytime you turn on the news there is another story about the southern border or immigration. The U.S. economy continues to create more jobs than expected, largely due to "foreign born workers"
The Bible teaches that we should love foreigners and refugees. But much has been written about migrant workers stealing jobs from Americans and driving down wages. So how do we reconcile all of that?
In this episode of the podcast, we examine the data for immigration and employment in America.
0:00 Intro
2:14 Legal vs. Illegal Immigration
3:28 Immigration Facts
3:58 Impact on Economic Growth
8:19 Are Immigrants "Stealing Jobs?"
11:22 Immigration Reduces Wages
13:25 Immigration Reducing Inflation
16:01 Conclusion
Start A Conversation With Us: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation
© 2024 Capital Stewards, LLC. All rights reserved. Capital Stewards, LLC is a registered investment advisor. Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, viewers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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Feeling down about the economy and markets? Paying high prices at the store while watching the S&P 500 hit all-time highs?
Often, how we feel about the market and our investments doesn't jive with what's really happening. In our Q2 outlook, we look at the data to get a better picture of what's really happening in the economy and financial markets.
0:00 - Inflation Feels Different Than Reality
3:03 - What's Happened So Far This Year?
4:06 - Why Long-Term Perspective is So Important
6:00 - Job Market
8:36 - Layoffs
11:04 - Inflation
12:28 - How Are Companies Doing?
17:19 - Stock Prices and Valuation
20:46 - International Markets
24:13 - Bonds and Interest Rates
27:00 - Where Will Long-Term Interest Rates Land?
30:40 - Gold
31:54 - Conclusions & What Investors Should Consider
Start A Conversation With Us: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation
© 2024 Capital Stewards, LLC. All rights reserved. Capital Stewards, LLC is a registered investment advisor. Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, viewers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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Wondering whether Bitcoin should be a part of your investment portfolio? In this episode we share our perspective on how to consider a crypto investment. What about the new Bitcoin ETFs, should those be a part of your investment portfolio? We discuss:
(0:00) Intro & Thesis on Bitcoin
(2:53) Blockchain & Distributed Ledger Technology vs. Cryptocurrencies
(6:35) Is Bitcoin a Currency?
(8:58) Is Bitcoin a good Inflation Hedge?
(11:37) Bitcoin as a Safety-Net
(12:53) Cryptocurrency Volatility
(13:52) New Bitcoin ETFs
(15:55) Should Bitcoing Be Part of an Investment Portfolio?
Blog Post:
https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/learn/investing-in-bitcoin
Want to Start a Conversation About Your Investments? -> https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation
© 2024 Capital Stewards, LLC. All rights reserved. Capital Stewards, LLC is a registered investment advisor. Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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The superbowl is over. Taylor Swift clearly won. Its baseball season and all of that means it's time for taxes in 2024. In this episode, we cover things you can do to reduce your tax bill for 2023 and we also discuss strategies you can use for long-term tax planning.
More than 90% of filers are using the standard deduction each year. That means tax reduction isn't about a "hunt for deductions" each year, its about long-term strategies that lower your tax bill over time.
Listen to the episode for more insight on all things taxes for 2024!
Want to Start a Conversation About Your Long-Term Tax Plan -> https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation
Link to the "Dunkings" Commercial Video ->https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ve2miT5iF2M
© 2024 Capital Stewards, LLC. All rights reserved. Capital Stewards, LLC is a registered investment advisor. Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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It's hard not to notice, but we are in an election year. Did you know that the stock market does better when Democrats hold the oval office? Well... sorta...not really. There is lot's of discussion about the impact of the election on the stock market, interest rates and the economy. In this episode we will break it down and discuss the real impact elections have (or don't have) on markets. We cover:
What impact might the election have on stock market returns in 2024?Does it matter if a Democrat or Republican wins the election?Does the stock market actually perform better during Democrat or Republican administrations?What economic policy ideas should we watch for when we evaluate candidates.Have investment or financial planning questions? Start a conversation with our team: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation
© 2024 Capital Stewards, LLC. All rights reserved. Capital Stewards, LLC is a registered investment advisor. Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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Happy New Year! It's resolution time, but instead of focusing on 5 "check boxes" for a financially successful 2024, what if we took a step back to make a giant leap forward? In this short episode, I dive into a better approach for financial resolutions: aligning your life with your resources. Here are four questions to ask yourself as you kick off 2024:
Why am I here? How am I uniquely gifted? How am I creating opportunities for my family to thrive and grow?What am I passionate about changing in my community? What areas of my life are well-resourced? What areas need more resources, either time, attention,or money?Have investment or financial planning questions? Start a conversation with our team: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation
© 2024 Capital Stewards, LLC. All rights reserved. Capital Stewards, LLC is a registered investment advisor. Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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Will we have a recession in 2024? How will inflation and interest rates impact my job, my investments and the economy? Where should I consider investing in 2024? We dive into those questions and more in our latest outlook.
Topics:
(0:00) - Intro
(1:13) - Post-Covid Economic History 101
(4:29) - Normal vs. The Sugar High
(6:08) - Where are We Really on The Investment Journey?
(8:21) - Recession Debate and GDP Components
(8:55) - Job Market & Strong Consumer
(14:52) - Consumer Debt Increasing
(16:17) - Consumer Spending Over the Holidays
(18:40) - Business Investment & Activity
(22:18) - Governement Spending & Deficits
(24:12) - Inflation
(25:41) - Investment Outlook
(26:24) - Stock Market & Magnificent Seven
(32:31) - Bond Market
(35:17) - International Markets
(39:16) - Real Estate & Housing
(41:39) - Actions to Consider & Conclusion
Have investment or financial planning questions? Start a conversation with our team: https://www.thecapitalstewards.com/startconversation
© 2023 Capital Stewards, LLC. All rights reserved. Capital Stewards, LLC is a registered investment advisor. Any commentary is provided for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as specific investment, tax or legal advice. Instead, readers should make an independent assessment of the information and determine if any content mentioned is appropriate for their personal situation. Past performance of market results is no assurance of future performance. This information has been obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed.
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