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Is Your $2,000 Monthly Rent Actually Costing You $400,000 in Net Worth?
In episode 218 we explain why the average homebuyer age has jumped from 33 to 38 years old. Through data and market analysis, Quinton challenges the popular narrative that renting is the more economical choice, presenting statistics about the wealth gap between homeowners and renters.
Quinton breaks down the connection between birth rates and future housing demand, revealing how an incoming wave of over 11 million potential homebuyers in the next three years could impact the market. He presents a case for why home prices are unlikely to decrease, backed by comprehensive data about inventory shortages and demographic trends that are reshaping the real estate landscape.
[00:00] - Introduction and Thanksgiving Message
[01:51] - Homeowner vs. Renter Statistics
[04:56] - Birth Rate Analysis and Future Buyer Demand
[07:13] - Impact of Interest Rates on Home Prices
[10:25] - Why Home Prices Continue to RiseKey Quotes:
"Your first time you buy a home, it's not going to be your dream home." - Quinton Harris
"Every year you wait, an additional three to four million people become your competitors." - Quinton Harris
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Why Are Foreclosure Rates at Historic Lows Despite Rising Credit Card Debt?
Quinton Harris analyzes the latest New York Fed report, challenging popular misconceptions about an impending foreclosure crisis. He presents data showing foreclosure rates at historic lows while examining the concerning trends in consumer credit markets, particularly the trillion-dollar credit card debt predominantly affecting the 18-35 age group.
The episode delves into the complex relationship between bankruptcies, foreclosures, and credit scores, offering a comprehensive look at current market health indicators. Quinton provides insights into credit availability trends, which have reached an unprecedented $5 trillion, and discusses Jamie Dimon's warning about potential turbulence in consumer credit markets. He concludes with an interesting observation about Warren Buffett's recent market moves and their potential significance.
[00:00] - Introduction and Foreclosure Data Analysis
[04:05] - Credit Card Debt Discussion
[08:17] - Analysis of 90-Day Delinquencies by Loan Type
[11:35] - Market MoversKey Quotes:
"The amount of credit availability is on credit cards specifically only credit cards is literally cresting the chart at 5 trillion." - Quinton Harris
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Can 5% Interest Rates Unlock the Housing Market's Demand?
In episode 216, Quinton Harris dives deep into the disconnect between improving consumer sentiment and actual buying behavior in today's housing market. Drawing from Fannie Mae's latest consumer home price sentiment index, he explores why despite reaching a two-year high in positive sentiment, only 20% of surveyed consumers are ready to buy right now.
The episode uncovers the reality of America's housing shortage, with estimates ranging from 4 to 7 million homes needed to meet current demand. Quinton examines how this undersupply, dating back to the 2008 financial crisis, continues to shape market dynamics and challenges conventional wisdom about potential price corrections. He provides insights into emerging affordable markets and forecasts for 2025, suggesting a potential 9% increase in transactions as interest rates are expected to decline.
[00:00] - Introduction and Consumer Sentiment Overview
[01:23] - Analysis of Current Market Affordability
[02:02] - Housing Supply Shortage Discussion
[05:04] - Most Affordable Housing Markets Review
[07:45] - 2025 Market Forecast Analysis
[09:17] - Interest Rate Predictions and Impact
[13:31] - Supply and Demand Dynamics
[17:04] - Industry Professional Outlook
Key Quotes:
"I haven't seen a factual set of data to suggest or to convince me yet that these home prices are going to go backwards. I see a lot of emotion." - Quinton Harris
"If you're a residential mortgage broker, get ready because the wave is starting now... half the originators are out of the business from peak of February 2022 to now. That's a win." - Quinton Harris
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Will the Fed's 200 Basis Point Rate Cut Change the Housing Market in 2025?
In episode 215, Quinton Harris shares a comprehensive analysis of the Federal Reserve's recent meeting and its implications for future rate cuts. He examines Powell's acknowledgment of the 3-month and 6-month core PCE as key metrics, suggesting a shift toward a more neutral monetary policy stance that could lead to nearly 200 basis points in rate cuts.
The episode tackles the three major incentives driving the Fed's rate reduction strategy, including market stability, national debt management, and housing market dynamics. Here we talk about why home builders are choosing to offer incentives rather than reduce prices, and how this strategy connects to broader labor market concerns that could accelerate the Fed's rate-cutting timeline.
[00:00] - Introduction and Fed Meeting Overview
[02:43] - Powell's Key Comments and PCE Focus
[04:48] - Understanding Neutral vs. Restrictive Rates
[07:58] - Three Fed Incentives for Rate Cuts
[12:07] - Housing Market and Builder Strategy Analysis
[19:17] - Powell's Future and Leadership DiscussionKey Quotes:
"If we start seeing signs of the labor market weakening, you can bet that 200 basis points is going to be cut much quicker than the duration of 2025." - Quinton Harris
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Will Trump's Economic Policies Lead to a New Housing Market Boom in 2024?
In episode 214, Quinton Harris shares a detailed analysis of how Trump's election victory could reshape the housing market and monetary policy landscape. The episode explores the immediate market reactions to the election results, including surges in stock markets and crypto, while examining the potential impacts on bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
Here, Quinton breaks down why affordable housing will be crucial to the new administration's success and how the Federal Reserve's independence might be tested. He explains why tariffs won't be an immediate priority and how interest rate policies could be leveraged to stimulate housing market growth and manage the national deficit.
[00:00] - Election Impact and Economic Context
[02:25] - Market Reactions and Bond Performance
[05:16] - Trump's Housing Policy Analysis
[09:42] - Federal Reserve's Role and Future Direction
[17:25] - Tariffs and Job Creation StrategyKey Quotes:
"I think what was said is this from the American public, and I think majority was loud and clear... The economy has not been great for everyone." - Quinton Harris
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Will Trump's Economic Vision and New Cabinet Choices Reshape America's Future?
In episode 213, Quinton Harris and Lenny Curry dive deep into the post-election analysis of Trump's historic victory, examining the key factors that influenced voters' decisions. The hosts break down how economic concerns, including inflation and housing market challenges, played a crucial role in shaping the election outcome and discuss the potential impact of bringing figures like Elon Musk into the cabinet.
The conversation explores media influence, highlighting how podcast appearances and social media engagement helped Trump reach younger demographics and create coalition shifts in Hispanic and African American voters. Quinton and Lenny also analyze the implications for housing markets, interest rates, and the future of the Federal Reserve under the new administration.
[00:00] - Introduction and Post-Election Overview
[02:18] - Woke Culture's Impact on Elections
[03:26] - The Republican Party's Realignment
[06:32] - Media Transformation and Voter Demographics
[08:55] - Key Points in Trump's Campaign
[16:22] - Trump's Potential Cabinet Members
[21:22] - Border Security and Immigration Policy
[25:34] - Future Outlook and Party RealignmentKey quotes:
"Trump ran a campaign on ideas. They ran a campaign on emotion." - Lenny Curry
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With a 95% Chance of Fed Rate Cut, Should You Wait to Buy or Refinance Your Home?
In episode 212, Quinton Harris shares a comprehensive analysis of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and its implications for mortgage rates. Here we examine the Fed funds rate history, JOLTS reports, and employment data, Quinton explains why a quarter-point rate cut is virtually guaranteed and what this means for potential homebuyers and refinancers.
Drawing from multiple data sources, including the CME group's predictions and contradicting employment reports, Quinton challenges the conventional narrative about job market strength and reveals why post-election timing might be crucial for real estate transactions.
[00:00] - Introduction and Fed Week Overview
[01:05] - Federal Reserve Rate History and 2024-2025 Predictions
[02:48] - Impact of Rate Reductions on Mortgage Markets
[07:26] - JOLTS Report Analysis and Employment Trends
[09:31] - Government Jobs Data Discrepancies
[12:39] - Post-Election Market Predictions and Refinancing WaveKey Quotes:
"The job market doesn't look as strong as it does on paper." - Quinton Harris
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Will Your Vote Actually Make a Difference This Election Day?
In episode 211, Quinton Harris and former Mayor Lenny Curry share their personal experiences of taking their family to vote. This conversation explores the importance of civic duty, family values, and the perspective of watching the next generation engage in the democratic process, particularly during a significant election year with crucial amendments on the Florida ballot.
The episode explores the technical aspects of early voting, the importance of voter education, and how political campaigns utilize early voting data. Through their conversation, they address the concerning trend of election anxiety, with 69% of Americans reporting stress over the upcoming election. They also highlight the importance of maintaining friendships despite political differences and the privilege of living in a democracy where citizens can freely express their political views.[00:00] - Introduction Voting Experience
[03:10] - Voter Registration Process and Deadlines
[05:54] - Importance of Voter Education and Amendment Understanding
[08:56] - Political Division and Maintaining Relationships
[11:56] - Election Anxiety and Economic Concerns
[13:16] - Early Voting Impact and Campaign Strategies
[15:44] - Final Thoughts and Election Night PredictionsKey Quotes:
"You shouldn't lose friendships over politics." - Quinton Harris (quoting JD Vance)
"69% of people polled have anxiety over this election." - Lenny Curry
"We have the right to vote. We have the right to criticize our leaders." - Lenny Curry
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Why Are Distressed Sellers and Inventory Waves Critical for a Housing Crash?
In episode 210, Quinton Harris dives deep into the essential components needed for a housing market crash, focusing on two critical elements: distressed sellers and waves of inventory. Through detailed analysis of foreclosure data, bankruptcy trends, and current market conditions, this episode provides concrete evidence why today's market fundamentally differs from the 2008 crash scenario.
Through research, charts and data from Housing Wire, Quinton systematically dismantles popular social media narratives about an impending housing crash. He shares statistics about home equity positions, mortgage-free properties, and historically low foreclosure rates, offering valuable insights for first-time homebuyers and real estate professionals who need facts to combat fear-based market predictions.
[00:00] - Introduction and Episode Overview
[01:58] - Understanding Distressed Sellers and Market Dynamics
[05:25] - Historical Foreclosure and Bankruptcy Data Analysis
[07:25] - Current Inventory Levels vs. Historical Trends
[12:33] - Equity Positions in Today's Market
[16:18] - Concluding Thoughts on Market StabilityKey Quotes:
"98.3% of homeowners have an equity position in their home in America right now." - Quinton Harris
"Aren't you always buying at the peak though?" - Alex Stewart (quoted by Quinton)
"For a home price crash to take place, you got to have distressed sellers...You got to have a wave of inventory. These variables have to be there." - Quinton Harris______________________
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Why Haven't Real Estate Prices Crashed Despite Rising Mortgage Rates?
In episode 209, we tackle one of the most debated topics in today's real estate market: why housing prices continue to rise despite increasing mortgage rates. With a deep dive into 13 years of market data from 2012 to 2024, this episode systematically debunks the popular social media narratives predicting a housing market crash and reveals why these predictions consistently fail to be true.
Through comprehensive analysis of historical trends and current market conditions, Quinton exposes the misleading information circulating online and provides concrete evidence of real estate's resilience. From the myth of shadow inventory to the impact of COVID-19, this episode offers valuable insights for homeowners, buyers, sellers, and real estate professionals seeking to understand the true state of the housing market.
[00:00] - Introduction and Episode Overview
[02:39] - Historical Review of Failed Crash Predictions
[03:00] - Shadow Inventory Myth and 2012-2013 Market Performance
[04:55] - Manufacturing Recession and Bubble High Concerns
[07:09] - COVID-19 Impact and Market Response
[13:04] - Breaking Down National DataKey Quotes:
"Outside of that from 1942 to 2024 you have one year of negativity and it's negative one." - Quinton Harris
"If prices follow volume... why haven't the national home prices seen a steep decline or any decline in that manner because volume's down?" - Quinton Harris
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What’s really freezing the housing market, and how does it impact you?
In episode 208, we dive deep into the concept of "frozen homes" and the impact this trend is having on today's housing market. With affordability at an all-time low and inventory still tight, homeowners are finding themselves locked in—unable to sell their homes due to rising costs and low-interest mortgages. Quinton explores why many current homeowners are staying put and how this “frozen” state is contributing to the housing market's ongoing challenges.
Quinton also breaks down key data, including the rise in mortgage-free homeowners, and how supply and demand issues are intensifying. From a historical perspective on interest rates to the future of homeownership trends, this episode gives you a comprehensive look at the forces shaping today’s real estate market.
[00:00] - Introduction and Knoxville Trip Recap
[01:35] - The Concept of Frozen Homes and Affordability Issues
[04:12] - Inventory Challenges and Generational Homeownership Trends
[06:30] - The Impact of COVID-19 on Home Prices and Supply
[07:49] - Rent Prices, Mortgage Rates, and the Lock-In Effect
[09:45] - Why 40% of Homeowners Are Mortgage-Free
[12:04] - What Interest Rates Will Unlock the Housing Market?
[14:50] - How Supply May Shape the Future of HomeownershipKey quotes:
"Homeowners today are frozen out of buying a new home due to affordability." - Quinton Harris
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Is your insurance costing more than it should? In episode 207, your host Quinton Harris talks about the pressing issue of rising insurance premiums and shares practical strategies for home buyers to reduce their costs. From homeowner’s insurance in Florida to the impacts of wildfires in California, Quinton explores how climate risks are driving insurance rates up and what buyers can do to navigate these increases.
Quinton shares insights on leveraging tools like flood and fire risk assessments, along with tips on how to lower premiums by addressing key factors like home age, roof condition, and even transferring existing insurance policies. Whether you're a current homeowner or a buyer looking to protect your investment, this episode gives you practical advice to help you mitigate insurance costs and secure the best possible rates.
[00:00] - Introduction to storm seasons and insurance impacts
[03:27] - Tracking hurricanes and their long-term economic effects
[06:31] - How rising insurance costs affect buyer psychology
[08:28] - Major sites when people look for a home
[09:28] - Using climate risk data in home buying decisions
[13:04] - Tips for reducing your insurance premiums
[13:59] - How to transfer lower flood insurance premiums when buying a home
[17:36] - The need for legislation to address the insurance crisis
Key quotes:
"The lasting impact of these storms is more than just physical damage; it's the financial burden on homeowners." - Quinton Harris
"If insurance keeps rising, it could become a major obstacle to homeownership." - Quinton Harris
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Is the Fed's rate cut addiction setting us up for sub-5% mortgage rates?
In episode 206, host Quinton Harris dives deep into the recent CPI and PPI reports, talking about their implications for the economy and future Fed decisions. Quinton breaks down the interplay between inflation metrics, job market data, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, offering you a clear picture of what's really driving economic trends.
Here we share the historical pattern that could signal a significant drop in mortgage rates. Drawing from 40 years of data, Quinton explains why we might be seeing sub-5% mortgage rates again, and why 2025 could be the year for refinances and home purchases. Whether you're a homeowner, a prospective buyer, or just interested in economic trends, this episode will give you valuable insights into what the future might hold.
[00:00] - Introduction and overview of CPI and PPI reports
[01:07] - Breaking down the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI)
[03:34] - Federal Reserve's focus on job market data
[05:20] - Analysis of Fed commentaries on inflation readings
[10:54] - Investor psychology during Fed rate cut cycles
[14:00] - Historical patterns in 10-year Treasury yields after Fed rate cuts
[15:00] - The potential for a refinance and purchase wave in 2025
Key Quotes:
"What's moving the Federal Reserve is the job market." - Quinton Harris
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Will the Federal Reserve's next move be influenced by the questionable BLS jobs report?
In episode 205, we dive deep into the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report, uncovering the numbers that could significantly impact the Federal Reserve's decision-making process. Quinton analyzes the surprising surge in government jobs, the discrepancy between reported and calculated unemployment rates, and the record-breaking number of multiple job holders.
This episode covers the potential political implications of these job numbers, especially in the context of the upcoming election. Quinton questions the accuracy of the reported 4.1% unemployment rate, suggesting that a more realistic figure could be 4.5% when accounting for average government job creation. He also highlights the concerning trend of part-time jobs dominating the market and the creation of 69,000 new bartender positions, questioning the strength these numbers truly represent in the economy.
[00:00] - Introduction and overview of the BLS jobs report
[01:18] - Analysis of the household survey and government workers surge
[06:04] - Government jobs vs. Private sector job numbers
[06:56] - Part-time jobs and unemployment rate discrepancy
[07:44] - Why will the Federal Reserve continue to make cuts?
[10:22] - Breakdown of job creations, focusing on leisure and hospitality sector
[12:55] - Potential impact on the upcoming election and future economic outlook
Key Quotes:
"The number of people who need more than one job to survive in this economy, is at an all time high. That is not strength." - Quinton Harris
"Whoever wins is going to inherit a pretty dismal unemployment and labor market. That's a fact." - Quinton Harris
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Is the U.S. economy on the brink of recession, and what can presidential candidates do about it?
In episode 204, we dive deep into the current state of the U.S. economy and the potential policies that could shape its future. Quinton Harris and Lenny Curry analyze the recent economic proposals from both sides of the political aisle, including fixed grocery prices and credit card interest rate caps. They explore the alarming rise in credit card debt, the truth behind unemployment figures, and the unintended consequences of over-regulation across various industries
[00:00] - Introduction and overview of recent economic proposals
[00:48] - Analysis of fixed grocery prices and credit card interest rate caps
[04:07] - Discussion on credit card debt and unemployment rates
[06:49] - Advice for Kamala in Economic Policies
[09:39] - Advice for Trump in Economic Policies
[13:43] - Impact of regulation on various industries
[17:21] - Real estate industry changes due to new regulations
[18:52] - Global economic concerns and reliance on oil
[21:34] - Concluding thoughts on economic education and political discourse
Key Quotes:
"The economy is not in a good position. When you look at the job market, it's not in a good position. The credit card debt speaks to that. The price points speak to that. We're not in a good position.” - Quinton Harris
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Is a port strike about to cripple the US economy?
Today we are going to analyze the looming threat of a port strike on the East Coast and its potential to send shockwaves through the US economy. In episode 203, we talk about the demands of the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA), including their call for a staggering 77% pay increase, and explore the deeper issues at play, such as the fear of job automation. We also examine the political implications of this labor dispute, especially in light of the upcoming election season. Quinton breaks down complex topics like the Taft-Hartley Act and its potential use by the President, while also addressing the media-driven panic buying phenomenon. Join the debate and share your comments about the delicate balance between fair labor practices and economic stability.
[00:00] - Introduction and overview of the port strike situation
[00:52] - Analysis of the ILA's demands and the automation threat
[03:27] - Potential economic impacts of a prolonged strike
[05:06] - Political implications [10:13] - Media influence and consumer behavior
[12:27] - The Taft-Hartley Act
[15:38] - Concluding thoughts on the strike's broader implications
Key Quotes:
"The consumer never wins." - Quinton Harris
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In Episode 202, we dive into the latest trends in the U.S. housing market, focusing on the surge in mortgage demand and its implications. Together, we analyze recent data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Index, revealing five consecutive weeks of increased purchase demand. The episode explores the significance of this trend, as 2024 mortgage applications surpass 2023 levels for the first time. We also analyze the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index reaching a new high, indicating strong home price appreciation despite previous market challenges. The show also examines the narrowing spread on the 10-year Treasury and its potential impact on mortgage rates. Additionally, we address the upcoming changes in conforming loan limits and the inclusion of trigger lead regulations in the National Defense Authorization Act. Throughout the episode, we shared with you insights into the current state of the housing market, offering valuable perspectives for both industry professionals and potential homebuyers.
[00:00] - Introduction and episode overview
[01:30] - Analysis of recent mortgage application trends
[03:47] - CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index and price appreciation
[07:08] - 10-year Treasury spread and implications for mortgage rates
[08:13] - Upcoming changes in conforming loan limits
[10:49] - Trigger lead regulations and consumer protection
Key Quotes:
"The bond market has figured this thing out from a perspective of it's no longer about inflation... What they figured out is this data in regards to unemployment rates. That's where the real issue is." - Quinton Harris
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In Episode 201, we analyze the U.S. housing market, addressing concerns about a potential bubble and debunking common misconceptions. Drawing from newly released home equity data and demographic studies. Quinton presents statistics, including the $17.6 trillion in U.S. home equity and the fact that 99% of homeowners have positive equity. The episode explores homeownership rates across different generations, from Baby Boomers to Gen Z, and examines the pent-up demand for housing, particularly among millennials. Together we analyze the potential impact of 25 million new homebuyers entering the market and compares current conditions to those preceding the 2008 crash.. He also addresses concerns about negative equity and regional market variations, emphasizing the importance of supply and demand dynamics. Throughout the episode, Quinton provides listeners with a comprehensive understanding of why fears of a housing bubble may be unfounded, offering valuable insights for both current homeowners and potential buyers.
[00:00] - Introduction and episode recap
[01:22] - U.S. home equity data overview
[02:55] - Demographic studies impact on housing
[06:17] - Generational homeownership rates
[10:25] - Pent-up demand among millennials and Gen Z
[13:16] - Current market vs. 2008 crash conditions
[14:55] - Supply and demand in housing market
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In Episode 200, host Quinton Harris welcomes Phil M. Jones, bestselling author and sales expert, to discuss the changing landscape of real estate, effective communication strategies, and the future of the industry. This conversation explores Phil's journey from a bet-inspired book to becoming a leading voice in sales and persuasion. Phil shares valuable insights into creating long-term client relationships, adapting to industry changes, and proving value in an evolving market.
This episode is a call to action for real estate professionals to redefine their value proposition and embrace change. Whether you're a seasoned agent, a newcomer to the industry, or simply a fan of the psychology of persuasion, this conversation will challenge your thinking. Tune in for an exploration of how changing your words can change your world in the high-stakes arena of real estate.
[00:00] - Introduction of Phil M. Jones and "Exactly What to Say"
[02:31] - The origin story of Phil's book and its evolution from a bet to a bestseller
[09:36] - The challenges on the real estate industry
[12:53] - Emotional intelligence and long-term client relationships in real estate
[17:18] - "Cheap" vs "Premium" in real estate services
[26:38] - The Uber case: lessons for the real estate industry
[29:01] - Phil's upcoming event in Jacksonville, Florida
[30:55] - Final thoughts on the power of intentional communication in business and life
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We wanted to take a moment to update you on the recent Federal Reserve meeting and how it could impact your mortgage and financial planning.
What Happened at the Fed Meeting? During their recent meeting, the Federal Reserve (often referred to as "the Fed") reviewed the current economic landscape, including factors such as inflation, employment rates, and overall economic growth. The Fed decreased the central bank's federal fund's rate by a half percentage point, reflecting their ongoing strategy to manage economic stability. According to many experts, the Fed is predicted to continue to shift in this direction.
What This Means for Mortgage Interest Rates: The Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but their decisions heavily influence them.There could be an opportunity for lower mortgage rates, which might make now a great time to consider buying or refinancing.
What Should You Do? If you’re thinking about buying a home, refinancing your current loan, or simply want to review your options, now is the perfect time to get in touch. As your dedicated mortgage professionals, we're here to help you navigate these changes and find the best mortgage solution for your needs.
[00:00] - Introduction and recap of the 50 basis point Fed rate cut
[04:38] - Analysis of Powell's podium speech and Q&A session
[08:02] - Discussion on the Fed's view of the economy and unemployment rates
[11:54] - Critique of the Fed's assessment of economic health
[13:31] - Explanation of quantitative easing and its addictive nature
[15:05] - Analysis of the Fed's dot plot map and future rate projections
[18:41] - Discussion on the job market outlook and Fed's concerns
[19:37] - Explanation of the treasury yield curve inversion and its implications
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