Bölümler
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Jim and Ray welcome McKinsey & Company’s Global Director of Geopolitics Ziad Haider to discuss how businesses are navigating the evolving risks and opportunities of today’s Indo-Pacific business environment. Ziad asserts that the region is the engine of the global economy which is both economically vibrant but also highly volatile.
Ziad discusses the role of India and Southeast Asia as rising global economic power, and of course, the increasingly complex challenge of operating in China amidst its growing regulatory and geopolitical hazards. He emphasizes the need for companies to be prepared to adapt as circumstances can change quickly, as evidenced by recent supply chains disruptions and black-swan events such as the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Jim and Ray welcome BowerGroupAsia’s Managing Director for Indonesia Doug Ramage to look at the country’s economic and geopolitical position as it moves on from a decade under President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo to new President Prabowo Subianto. They consider Indonesia’s position as a rising power with a $1 trillion economy, a G20 membership and leadership position within the Association of Southeast Asian (ASEAN) nations.
Doug credits the Jokowi presidency for championing a stable political and investment climate, and explains why he believes that Prabowo is seeking continuity while also promoting social development.
He explains that Prabowo will face a rising imperative to balance Jakarta’s relationships with Washington DC and Beijing in the face of rising great-power competition. He will seek to maintain Indonesia’s strong regional position and continue to promote ASEAN-centrality, while also continuing to promote its role as a leader in the Muslim world.
Doug unpacks the strains created by the twin impulses toward economic growth and trade protectionism, and how these may impact the former defense minister’s military modernization plans and the slow-moving effort to relocate the capital city.
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Eksik bölüm mü var?
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Jim and Ray welcome Suzanne Vares-Lum, retired U.S. Army Major General, outgoing President of the East-West Center and Director-designate of the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies. Together they explore the geopolitical significance of the geographically vast but sparsely populated Pacific Islands region.
They discuss how these small island nations have found themselves in the midst of the great-power competition between the U.S. and China, while many have also become unlikely players in the cross-strait tensions between Taiwan and China. At the same time, the concerns that preoccupy these nations at international gatherings such as the Pacific Islands Forum include illegal fishing and climate change.
Suzy explains how the U.S. has been renewing its commitment to many of these countries through education and leadership programs, as well as opening new embassies and funding infrastructure projects.
To close, Ray tells the story of when he dispatched a special forces officer to rescue a stuffed animal.
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In this "emergency" episode, Ray and Jim welcome retired South Korean Lieutenant General Chun In-Bum back to help explain the extraordinary events of December 3rd–President Yoon Suk Yul’s shocking declaration of martial law, its unanimous rejection by the parliament, and its subsequent repeal by Yoon.
General Chun talks about the ethical and legal dilemma faced by South Korean military personnel, crediting their professionalism and restraint for averting violence. He also discusses South Korea’s history with martial law and how the ever-present threat of North Korean aggression colors that landscape.
The conversation then turns to what is likely to happen next to President Yoon and his administration, and how a potential presidential succession might unfold should he be impeached or resign from office.
General Chun laments the impact Yoon’s actions and their aftermath is likely to have on South Korea’s geopolitical situation, with special emphasis on how it will affect recent positive trends with Japan relations during Yoon’s tenure.
To close, Jim and Ray compare this experience with others they’ve encountered during their long diplomatic and military careers, and also discuss how authoritarian regimes are likely to exploit the chaos in Seoul.
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Ray and Jim welcome Victor Chin, the official representative of Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, to discuss Taiwan’s political landscape. They discuss how the KMT evolved from the flight with Chiang Kai-shek to Taiwan at end of the Chinese Civil War; through decades of unchallenged KMT rule over the island; its transition to a multiparty democracy; through to today as its primary opposition party to the ascendant Democratic People’s Party (DPP).
They turn to Taiwan’s strategic geographic location, the building military threat from the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the need for Taiwan to prepare its entire society for hostilities, and the crucial role the U.S. plays in ensuring its security.
Victor explains why the KMT emphasizes its support for the “1992 Consensus” regarding “One China” and its ambiguous interpretation. He explains the difference in how the KMT looks at cross-strait relations, emphasizing dialogue over confrontation to manage tensions until democracy can be the force that unifies China.
This conservative approach has earned the KMT the reputation of being Beijing’s preferred party, but Victor insists it remains Taiwan’s original and staunch bastion against communism.
To close, Jim’s “There I was” story leads him and Ray into a discussion about the promises of authoritarianism versus democracy, which Churchill described as “the worst form of government except for everything else that’s been tried.”
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Ray and Jim welcome AEI senior fellow Zack Cooper to the podcast to discuss China's increasingly aggressive behavior, and what the U.S. and its allies need to do in response. They focus on the question of how deterrence strategies need to evolve and adapt to the threats, whether they be nuclear, conventional military, or across the spectrum of malign gray-zone activities. They discuss the specific need to deter a military move against Taiwan.
The discussion turns to the topic of extended nuclear deterrence, and whether a perceived U.S. inability or unwillingness to back up its security guarantees might lead its allies in the region to pursue their own nuclear weapons programs and lead to a breakdown of the non-proliferation regime.
Zack also covers the recent U.S. policy of “integrated deterrence” and whether it can be effective, as well as recent discussion about an “Asian NATO” and whether it has a future.
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Ray and Jim explore the implications of a Trump 2.0 administration for the Philippines with prominent Filipino columnist, podcaster and author of the 2020 book, The Indo-Pacific: Trump, China, and the New Struggle for Global Mastery. Richard Heydarian discusses the historical context of US-Philippines relations, the fluidity of ASEAN perspectives on China, and the importance of strategic autonomy for Southeast Asian nations.
The dialogue compares the policies of U.S. administrations through recent decades, emphasizing the need for clarity and continuity in interpreting the 1951 US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty and other security cooperation arrangements.
The discussion drills down on the potential impact of Trump-imposed tariffs on Philippine economic interests, before turning to the broader geopolitical and economic landscape across Southeast Asia.
Richard also gives his opinions on the effectiveness of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the potential for minilateralism to overcome its limitations.
The hosts ask Richard to give advice about how Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr. can maximize his impact with President Trump, as well as his advice on what makes a successful podcast.
Finally, Ray tells Jim about his recent experience at the Manila Dialogue on the South China Sea, where he created a buzz by describing China’s activities in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone as akin to a “maritime occupation” by a “hostile imperial power”.
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Ray and Jim talk to author and geopolitical analyst James Crabtree about India’s policy of strategic ambiguity, its evolving but complicated relationship to the other “Quad” countries (the U.S., Australia and Japan), and its enigmatic relations with Russia and China.
They also review India's ongoing military modernization efforts, as well as the challenges of doing business in India with its complex web of protectionism, regulations and infrastructure issues.
Crabtree unpacks the rhetoric of India’s “Act East” policy of prioritizing Southeast Asia, as opposed to its evident interest in developing relations with wealthier Western economies. He also explains the implications of its inclusion in the “BRICS” grouping with Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa, together with a growing number of emerging Global South partners.
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Jim and Ray welcome former Ambassador to Singapore Frank Lavin--now the Founder and CEO of Export Now, a firm that helps companies do business in China. Frank explains why he believes economic decoupling from China is unwise, and why he believes that China's 2001 accession to the World Trade Organization was not a mistake but instead forced Beijing to make important reforms that benefited U.S. businesses.
Our guest emphasizes the importance of balancing geopolitical considerations with business decisions, and advocates for a positive U.S. trade policy of collaboration with like-minded nations rather than over-focusing on adversarial relationships with countries like China.
The discussion also rolls around to the evolution of U.S. trade policy, the potential implications of increased tariffs under Donald Trump, and the challenges posed by China's rise. It explores the history of trade agreements, the current political climate surrounding free trade, and the impact of China's economic strategies on global markets.
Frank emphasizes the importance of openness and collaboration in trade, while also addressing the need for defensive measures against unfair practices. He concludes with a call for proactive leadership in U.S. trade relations and the potential for future agreements.
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Ray and Jim welcome Chinese espionage expert Matt Brazil to discuss the unprecedented scale of Chinese intelligence operations, emphasizing the role of the Ministry of State Security (MSS). He highlights the implications of China's sophisticated program of both domestic and transnational spying and repression of dissent; the involvement of some Chinese academics and students in espionage activities; and the growing threat of cyber hacking as a tool for state-sponsored intelligence.
Matt also explains how the United Front Work Department conducts foreign influence operations, and offers insights into how organizations can mitigate risks when hiring individuals from China.
The conversation concludes with a discussion on why China's wide-ranging program targets local government officials and the broader implications of these actions.
Ray and Jim then discuss how China's whole-of-civilization approach to espionage can increase the scrutiny--including discrimination, profiling and racism--that ordinary ethnic Chinese academics, students and businesspeople face in western countries.
Finally, Ray relates an amusing occasion on which he himself was called a "cyber hacker" while serving in southeast Asia.
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Ray and Jim welcome Stanford University fellow and author Oriana Skylar Mastro to discuss her recent book, "Upstart: How China Became a Great Power".
Oriana emphasizes that outsiders often misunderstand the sources of China's strength. She says that while Beijing sometimes emulates Western strategies, it also frequently exploits their weaknesses--for example, engaging strongly with certain developing countries that the U.S. largely ignores.
She further asserts that China engages in entrepreneurial new strategies, such as training developing countries' police forces or building a vast maritime militia force. Many of these approaches are made possible by China's authoritarian political system in ways that democracies cannot easily emulate and probably shouldn't try, though they need to find other ways to contest them using their own strengths.
Oriana examines the diplomatic and military options regarding China's growing threat to Taiwan and the South China Sea, emphasizing the need for less bluster but more strength--Theodore Roosevelt's "speak softly and carry a big stick" approach. Regarding the South China Sea, she discusses her recent New York Times article in which she advocated for "calling China's bluff".
Finally, in this episode's edition of "There I was...", Jim describes working with a U.S. company involved in exploring Indonesia's North Natuna Sea, where there is a dispute with China's vast maritime claims. He observes how a country's own perception of its national interests is often very different from what outsiders believe it should be.
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Jim and Ray welcome Charlie Edel, Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, about the significance of AUKUS--a trilateral security pact between Australia, the UK and the US--focusing on its implications for defense and technology collaboration in the Indo-Pacific region.
Their discussion covers the origins of AUKUS, its strategic importance, the controversies around "Pillar One" (nuclear submarine production), and the challenges and potential for expanding partnerships beyond the three countries in "Pillar Two" (advanced technology cooperation).
The conversation then moves on to the need for building enhanced deterrence capabilities to meet the growing China threat, and the evolving nature of defense technology collaboration.
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Ray and Jim welcome retired Lieutenant General Chun In-bum of the South Korean Army to discuss North Korea's increasing role in supplying arms to the Russian war machine. General Chun highlights the long history of North Korea’s illicit arms industry, and how its ambitions pose not just regional but global challenges.
General Chun emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of North Korea's changing military ambitions in the context of its ever-shifting relationships with China and Russia. He emphasizes that U.S. policy toward North Korea has often been flawed by misguided hopes that the Hermit Kingdom might respond positively to offers of engagement or inducements.
The discussion turns to the challenge that North Korea’s nuclear program poses to a strained global non-proliferation regime, and the real potential for South Korea and other countries under threat to break out and pursue their own nuclear capabilities if their faith in U.S. extended deterrence fails.
General Chun contemplates the question of an “Asian NATO”, appreciates the long history of American service in South Korea, and makes an impassioned plea to Americans to hold to their country’s historic ideals.
In our “There I was…” segment, Ray tells an amazing-but-true story of how his Air Force unit once encountered the toughness of South Korean Special Forces.
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Union College Professor Mark Dallas--also a senior advisor to the U.S. Department of Commerce--joins Jim and Ray to delve into how the recently accelerating movement of global supply chains away from China is affecting consumers, employment and national security, both in the U.S. and around the world.
Professor Dallas explains the importance and complexity of global supply chains, and explores how COVID-19 brought their vulnerabilities into the public awareness. He unpacks how 'friend-shoring' has emerged as a western strategy to reduce supply-chain reliance on potential adversaries by sourcing goods and labor through more friendly countries.
One reason China's manufacturing capabilities became so dominant in global supply chains was its ability to geographically cluster manufacturing sites closely together for maximum efficiency.
Professor Dallas explains that while authoritarian policies, geopolitical shocks and cybersecurity threats pose serious challenges to global supply chain integrity, decoupling supply chains away from China is far more complicated than it sounds.
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Michael Brosowski, founder of the Blue Dragon Children's Foundation in Hanoi, discusses how his organization combats human trafficking in Vietnam, though he asserts that trafficking is a global problem--a crime against humanity that affects everyone.
Trafficking in Vietnam is a constantly changing and evolving challenge, one that often targets disadvantaged youth seeking job and life opportunities. Blue Dragon has leveraged collaboration with the Vietnamese and other governments to intervene.
Last decade one of the biggest problems Blue Dragon found was that women were being trafficked across the border into China, where decades of the "One-Child Policy" had left a severe gender imbalance. Blue Dragon has worked with both governments to stem the flow of brides across the border so that it is a more manageable problem today.
Michael discusses how Blue Dragon often conducts dramatic, sometimes risky rescue operations to secure trafficked persons' freedom. These require careful planning and often involve rapid responses to calls for help, sometimes even across borders.
Aftercare for survivors is a key part of the program. This is highly individualized, and may include psychological, financial, vocational and legal supports.
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Ray & Jim interview the former U.S. National Security Advisor H.R. McMaster about his New York Times bestselling memoir, “At War With Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House”.
Lieutenant General McMaster unpacks how he believes the Trump Administration executed a long-overdue shift in America’s strategy towards China, from a policy based on a false hope of integration into the U.S.-led international order to one that emphasized the need to engage in great power competition to prevent a revisionist China and Russia from overthrowing that order.
McMaster explains how he tried to implement President Trump’s policy of "putting America first" and demanding reciprocal trade agreements and defense burden-sharing among America’s allies, even as he himself advocated with the president for maintaining strong alliances and a muscular forward military presence to deter conflict, and explains his assertion that the greatest provocation for aggressors is the "perception of American weakness".
McMaster also pushes for the rebuilding of America’s defense industrial base in order to deter escalation in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere, especially in places like Taiwan, the Philippines and the South China Sea.
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Jim and Ray talk to Dr. Euan Graham of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute about how Malaysia's positive relations with Beijing--despite ongoing tensions in the South China Sea--may be attributed to its deep economic ties with China. In particular, Malaysia's Prime Minister, Anwar Ibrahim, has taken a friendly stance towards China and downplayed security concerns, even as China continues to press its maritime claims.
They discuss Malaysia's approach to geopolitics as it is about to assume the rotating chair of ASEAN, with which Beijing has been slow-rolling South China Sea Code of Conduct negotiations for decades--a circumstance that has grated on leaders in the Philippines who have sought stronger ASEAN support. For this reason, ASEAN's centrality in managing security issues is increasingly in question.
Malaysian leaders see their approach as being pragmatic and flexible, while they see the Philippine approach as being unnecessarily confrontational.
In "There I was...", Jim tells the story of his meeting with Anwar's daughter and the U.S.'s efforts to secure Anwar's release from jail two decades ago.
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Jim & Ray talk to former U.S. Consul General to Hong Kong Hanscom Smith about the recent erosion of its autonomy and why he still believes in maintaining support for its people. Hanscom argues that despite its recent challenges, Hong Kong remains economically distinct from mainland China, though he acknowledges that the erosion of political autonomy has serious implications for Hong Kong's future. He asserts that international businesses still see value in maintaining a presence in Hong Kong, though the 2019 national security law has created uncertainty. He reflects back on his time there, which encompassed both the 2019 protests and the COVID-19 outbreak.
Finally, in a special update Jim asks Hanscom to respond to recent US State Department warnings to businesses in Hong Kong and the passage through the US House of Representatives of the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office Certification Act.
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Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull joins Jim and Ray to give his pointed views on what he believes would be a high-risk second Donald Trump Administration on the Indo-Pacific against the relative continuity represented by Vice President Kamala Harris. Citing Trump's narcissism and erratic behavior, Turnbull asserts that the former president's return would unsettle U.S. alliance relationships across the region.
Turning to how foreign leaders can prepare for a possible "Trump 2", Turnbull emphasizes the need to forge a direct relationship with him, as traditional methods of working through senior officials and advisors have limited influence on his decisions. He shares his own experience of dealing with Trump while he was prime minister, such as persuading him not to impose steel tariffs on Australia.
Turnbull also details his objections to the Australia-UK-US (AUKUS) submarine deal. He criticizes the decision to abandon Australia's partnership with France to build diesel-electric submarines and instead opt for nuclear-powered submarines with America and Great Britain. Turnbull argues that this decision undermines Australian sovereignty and poses unacceptable risks due to the potential that limited supplies of U.S. submarines may well result in their being unavailable to meet Australia's needs.
He also discusses how Australia has dealt with China's influence and espionage operations, and specifically why his government was among the world's first to refuse to allow Huawei to build 5G networks in the country.
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Ray and Jim discuss the recent tense and sometimes violent maritime confrontations between China and the Philippines with expert Greg Poling, author of "On Dangerous Ground: America's Century in the South China Sea". They consider what these developments mean for America's long-standing alliance commitment to the Philippines, which Greg asserts is finally being treated like a "real ally" on equivalent footing with more developed countries like Japan.
Greg explores the origins of China's vast claims to the South China Sea--including the origins of the so-called "nine-dash line"--and then works through progression of its gray zone campaign from Scarborough Shoal to Second Thomas Shoal to its latest flashpoint at Sabina Shoal.
The conversation turns to the impact of President Rodrigo Duterte's administration (2016-2022), which turned away from the U.S. alliance and leaned hard into its relationship with Beijing.
They also discuss ASEAN's fragmentation over the South China Sea issue and what it means for a future Code of Conduct.
To close, Ray tells the story of his experience in Vietnam when large protests broke out in 2014 over a Chinese oil rig operating in the Gulf of Tonkin.
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