Bölümler
-
This week on Trading Corner, Senior Oil Derivatives Trader, James Anderson discusses key developments in the oil market with Head of Desk, Manny Newman. They dive into post-election market dynamics, refinery margins, and the impact of seasonal turnaround cycles. James shares insights on the Brent vs. Products spreads, China’s influence on global crude prices, and potential shifts in U.S. export dynamics.
Manny and James also tackle the interplay between distillate cracks, freight movements, and broader geopolitical factors, including Iranian exports and OPEC production. As we approach the holiday season, Manny and James explore how low liquidity and key events like Thanksgiving could influence market volatility.
Plus, James and our Manny debate the best trade strategies of the week—short-dated Brent vs. bullish deferred crude spreads.
-
This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm GMT on Monday, the 18th of November. Tune in Mondays at 12:30pm UK time to watch Macro Mondays live.
On today's episode, James and Will dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets.
Last week, Bitcoin, S&P 500, and NASDAQ hit all-time highs - but whether this rally will continue is unclear thanks to rising yields. Meanwhile, US Dollar strength is causing havoc with EURUSD & USD Yuan making multi-month lows, and causing more distress in EMG with USDINR at all-time highs.
CPI and PPI are both rising for the first time since September 2022. Lorie K Logan from the Fed has said that the US Central Bank will most likely need to make more interest rate cuts. Dogecoin spiked following Trump's announcement of the DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency), co-headed by Elon Musk, it has risen 170% in the last 4 months. Bitcoin is now the 8th-largest asset in the world, just behind Saudi Aramco.
We saw mixed Chinese data, strong retail sales but weak industrial production and falling house prices, and OPEC cut their global oil demand growth forecast for the 4th consecutive month. German data continues to look weak, both IFO and ZEW came in below expectations, and UK unemployment has jumped form 4.1% to 4.3%.
The team also take a look at the upcoming economic data schedule and the equities market.
#macro #macronews #finance #inflation #deflation #Nvidia #stockmarket #stocks #oott #oilandgas #trading #markets #marketanalysis #recession #derivatives #derivativestrading #thefed #housing #housingmarket #gold #china #germany #uk #us #economy #economics #ElonMusk #Trump #Bitcoin #China #Macro #Housing #HousingPrices #crypto #doge #dogecoin -
Eksik bölüm mü var?
-
In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Ed, Harinder and Dr. Wu explore the latest trends in global energy dynamics and political shifts, and deep dive into the rapidly changing landscape in China - where electric vehicles (EVs) are taking over, significantly impacting gasoline and diesel demand. They discuss startling stats, the shift to EVs in major Chinese cities, the competitive tech race, and the broader economic implications - including substantial reductions in daily transportation costs.
The Officials also tackle the dilemma OPEC faces, balancing production cuts amid declining Chinese demand and potential price impacts.
The discussion moves to the geopolitical sphere, dissecting President-elect Trump's cabinet nominations and their implications. They discuss trade tariffs that could disrupt European economies and drive deglobalisation and analyse how these political manoeuvres might influence global oil prices and the economic strategies shaping the energy markets.
The Officials also explore what a strengthened dollar means for investors, speculate on Musk's influence, and examine how upcoming policies could affect both the U.S. economy and international relations.
-
This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 12th November, 2024 at 12pm GMT.
Onyx Research Associates Mita Chaturvedi, Martha Dowding, and Vincent Wu join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss the direction of oil prices in the wake of President Donald Trump's election. The team reviews the potential outcomes of a second Trump presidency in relation to his policy proposals and aims to express their implications through trading ideas.
A second Trump presidency can have strong demand or supply repercussions. Vincent will examine the potential for more US crude oil supply and exports and their incidence on the relative pricing of WTI, Brent, and Dubai. Martha will look at how the potential for lighter regulation, particularly regarding renewable fuel mandates, will impact the US gasoline market. Finally, Mita delves into how future US trade policy, with heavy tariffs to be applied to China, can affect naphtha in Asia.
We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page. What is your favourite oil Trump trade. You can also listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Music, or Google Play.
Disclaimer: Any recommendation, prediction, or suggestion as to an investment strategy has been prepared by Onyx Capital Advisory Limited (“Onyx”) in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research (“Research”). This research is directed at, and therefore should only be relied upon by, clients who have professional experience in matters relating to investments. Onyx’s Research is not directed at retail clients or those in a jurisdiction in which this distribution may be restricted by local regulation or law. Onyx’s publications are prepared without taking into account your specific investment objectives and financial situation, therefore before acting on any information, you should consider its appropriateness. Onyx’s Research should not be regarded as a substitute for obtaining independent professional advice, including investment, tax and legal advice.Onyx’s policy is to only publish Research that is impartial, independent, clear, fair, and not misleading. Any views expressed are those of Onyx’s at the time the Research was prepared. No assurances or guarantees are given as to the reliability, accuracy, or completeness of any such information or any matter contained in Onyx’s Research and such Research may contain statements which are matters of judgement and which are subject to change at any time without notice. Onyx accepts no duty or liability, whatsoever, to any party in respect of its Research. Under no circumstances will Onyx be responsible for any losses incurred (whatever their nature) by its clients resulting directly or indirectly from the use or interpretation of any information contained in its Research. Such Research is solely produced and published by employees of Onyx and based on publicly available information. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Analysts are required to ensure that they have a reasonable basis for their analysis, predictions, and recommendations. Onyx maintains strict regulatory controls to mitigate any conflicts of interest including information barriers and restrictions on the undertaking of personal transactions in financial instruments.
Onyx is registered in England & Wales (company number 11472304) with its registered address at 95 Cromwell Road, Second Floor, London, United Kingdom, SW7 4DL. Onyx is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA no. 822509).
-
In this episode of Trading Corner Manny Newman and Jonah Van Bourg dive into the aftermath of the recent U.S. presidential election and its implications on the markets. They break down how a potential Trump administration could influence risk assets like equities and bitcoin, with conversations around short-term bullish expectations driven by policy changes. Manny and Jonah look at the energy sector, examining how Trump's approach might affect oil and energy markets and discuss possible shale oil production increases, aggressive tariff strategies, and the geopolitical impacts on Russian and Middle Eastern oil supply.
They analyse market reactions and explore futures positioning, touching on key drivers like election day sell-offs followed by afternoon rallies. As traders approach year-end, they talk about risk aversion, the influence of geopolitical risks, and the challenge of trading in a structurally oversupplied oil market.
Manny and Jonah also provide contrasting outlooks on oil prices: Manny foresees a downward flush before any potential recovery, while Jonah believes the market has already bottomed out. -
This week, market volatility took centre stage, spurred by the perceived inflationary policies under Trump. His election victory led to a steepening yield curve, with 10-year yields surging nearly 19 basis points, and market-based inflation expectations—like 5-year breakevens—also jumped significantly. Equities responded optimistically, with the S&P 500 up 3.3% and the Nasdaq climbing 4.5%, buoyed by hopes of deregulation.
The energy sector’s reaction was mixed; Trump's past policies affecting Iranian exports could signal a return to stricter measures. Renewable energy stocks, however, faced setbacks, with Sunrun notably impacted. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, with Chair Powell hinted at a potential slowdown in further cuts, even as employment remains central to future decisions.
Internationally, the Bank of England reduced its base rate, and euro yields tumbled, driven by safe-haven demand and inflation risks. Simultaneously, China showed signs of economic recovery, with a surprising export surge and positive PMI data. Additionally, Beijing announced a substantial 10 trillion-yuan debt refinancing package, but the measures fell short on the consumer measures markets had hoped for.
James and Will unpack how these global financial shifts impact investors and the broader economic landscape.
-
Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian, is joined by Chief Economist at Argus Media, David Fyfe for a special episode of Oil Insights. David brings over 30 years of experience in energy market analysis, from the International Energy Agency (IEA) to Gunvor and now Argus Media, where he delivers deep insights into oil market dynamics, geopolitical risk, and macroeconomic fundamentals.
With the election of Donald J. Trump as the 47th President of the United States, Harry and David explore the potential impacts on the oil market through both economic and geopolitical lenses. From sanctions on Iran and Venezuela to shifting alliances in the Middle East and implications for OPEC+, they delve into what a Trump administration could mean for global oil supplies and prices.
David and Harry discuss the complex web of relationships involving sanctioned nations, including the evolving US-Russia dynamic and how Trump's rapport with Saudi Arabia and Israel might influence geopolitical stability. They also explore the ramifications of Trump's trade policies, especially with China, and the possible effects on global economic growth and oil demand.
On the domestic front, they analyse the prospects for US oil and gas production under Trump’s energy policies and whether we could see a revival of the "drill baby drill" mantra. Finally, Harry and Davis assess the current state of oil market fundamentals as 2024 nears its close, the ongoing debate around oil demand forecasts, and OPEC+'s options in managing supply amid an uncertain market outlook.
#oott #oil #oilandgas #energy #derivatives #economics #Trump #Election #Harris #2024Election -
In this episode of The Officials, Jorge dials into the studio from Singapore to join Research Analysts Ed Hayden-Briffett and Will Cunliffe. This week, the team discuss Trump's sweep of the US election - and what this means for the economy, from what we've seen already to what's to come in the next four years. They discuss potential shifts in US green initiatives, tariffs, the budget deficit, and more.
Jorge, Ed, and Will also touch on Germany's declining industrial production and political instability, which is contributing to poor overall European economic data. Additionally, Jorge discusses the rise of electric vehicles in Chinas and the transition away from traditional oil dependency there. -
On this episode of Oil Insights, Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian and Research Associates Martha Dowding and Vincent Wu cover the potential implications of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election on the oil market, particularly focusing on foreign policy towards sanctioned countries like Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, as well as key Middle Eastern allies, like Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Looking at sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, for Iran, under Harris, the current containment and loose sanctions are likely to continue, allowing Iran to export around 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) of crude. Trump would likely tighten sanctions, potentially reducing Iran's exports, once again, below 500,000 barrels per day (kb/d). As for Venezuela, limited changes are expected under either administration. However, Trump might be more supportive of oil sector activities, possibly benefiting companies like Chevron operating in Venezuela.
For Russia and Ukraine, Harris is likely to continue the Biden administration’s stance of supporting Ukraine with military aid against Russia. Whilst Trump might be able to broker a solution with Russia, which could possibly lead to the lifting sanctions, allowing more Russian oil to enter global markets.
Harry, Martha and Vincent also discuss U.S. relations with Israel and Saudi Arabia. Whilst both parties support Israel, Trump is seen as having stronger influence over Israel and could broker regional peace talks more effectively.
And as for Saudi Arabia, Trump may have an easier path to re-establish relations and secure increased oil production, whereas Harris may adopt a critical stance.
As for U.S.-China Trade Policy, both candidates hold firm stances on trade with China, but Trump is expected to pursue more aggressive tariffs, which could lead to lower economic growth and thus, weaker global oil demand.
Finally, Harry, Martha and Vincent discuss domestic oil and gas policy. Trump is likely to reduce regulations, promote energy independence, and encourage oil infrastructure expansion, whilst Harris is expected to focus on energy transition policies, potentially slowing U.S. oil and gas production growth through regulatory constraints.
Overall, the episode suggests that the U.S. presidential outcome will have extensive repercussions for oil supply, international alliances, and the global energy market, with each candidate presenting sharply contrasting strategies.
#oott #oil #oilandgas #energy #derivatives #trading #trader #podcast #news #economics #finance #markets #marketanalysis #derivativestrading #geopolitics #brent #brentcrude #opec #opecplus #gasoline #gasprices #oilmarket #macro #macronews #finance #inflation #thefed #china #chineseeconomy #us #economy #economics #Trump #Election #Harris #2024Election
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/
-
This episode of Macro Mondays was recorded at 4:30pm GMT on Friday, the 1st of November.
On today's episode, James Todd is joined by Research Analyst Will Cunliffe - as James Brodie is travelling - to dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. They discuss whether we're seeing an unwinding of the "Trump trade" as gold and the S&P 500 opened weaker on Thursday, 31st October.
We're seeing mixed data out of the US, with a mix of increased consumer confidence and disappointing non-farm payrolls. In the US, corporate spreads are also falling; ICE Bank of America high yield OAS spreads are the smallest they've been since 2005.
Gold saw its worst drop since July, and we're seeing mixed earnings among companies with Amazon and Tesla looking strong but Microsoft looking disappointing. Brent, meanwhile, rallied over Middle East concerns.
-
In this episode of The Officials, Jorge dials into the studio from Beijing to join Harry, Ed, and Will. The team dive into key market developments over the past week, including movements in the Chinese economy and updates on Chinese demand forecasts. They also explore how people will be trading as we enter US election week - and what the risks are. Finally, they look at geopolitical risk, including the current situation between North Korea and South Korea.
-
In this episode of Trading Corner, Manny and Jonah analyse recent market trends and trading strategies - from fluctuating geopolitical risk, to upcoming OPEC decisions, an uptick in physical demand, and more.
-
Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Matt Aspin, Onyx Graduate Recruitment Lead, for a special episode of the CEO's Address to explore the generational shift in the industry - and within Onyx - as new graduates join.
Matt gives insight into the evolution of the graduate job market, from pre-pandemic to current day. He and Greg discuss what Onyx looks for when hiring graduates, and the unique opportunities Onyx provides - given they fit the rigorous culture and company mission. However, not just one type of person succeeds at Onyx; Matt and Greg analyse what qualities have made employees successful and which qualities Matt looks for in candidates.
In terms of a new generation entering the industry, Greg and Matt give their observations and opinions on "Gen Z" stereotypes in the work force. Given the major technological shifts in recent years, they touch upon the desire for technologically-literate trading candidates and how trading roles will expand in the near future.
-
This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 29th October, 2024 at 11am GMT. Onyx Research Associates Mita Chaturvedi and Vincent Wu join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss the week that was and the week to come in the oil market.
In this week's episode, Harry, Mita and Vincent discuss recent disruption in the oil market due to Israel's strike on Iran over the weekend. They analyse how Israel conducted the aerial strike - and what this means for the wider geopolitical situation and its impact on the market.
With the market's focus returning to macroeconomics, the team discuss recent developments concerning the world's largest economies - China and the US, and their implications for oil demand and prices. Mita dives into the product of the week: high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO), where the front-month crack recently reached all-time highs. Finally, Mita, Vincent and Harry give their Brent forecasts for the remainder of Q4 and discuss what they'll be looking out for in the coming week.
We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page. You can also listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Music, or Google Play.
-
Join us LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd for Macro Mondays.
On today's episode, James Brodie and James Todd dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. Oil prices have seen a significant drop off following Israel's targeted strikes on Iranian defense systems.
The US 30-year mortgage rate is up to 7.25%, marking the housing market’s most unaffordable level since the mid-1980s. This coincides with bonds now offering higher yields than stocks, a rarity not seen in 22 years.
James and James dive into the complexities of the US election, exploring the potential economic impacts of a "Trump trade" scenario. Betting markets suggest a 62% chance of Trump winning, which could lead to increased tariffs and reduced Fed independence, driving inflation upwards to as much as 9.3% by 2026 (according to projections from the Peterson Institute for International Economics). We'll keep a close eye on these developments as we near election week.
The Eurozone, meanwhile, is facing weak manufacturing and service PMIs - especially in France and Germany. Dovish comments from ECB officials underscore concerns over stagnation in the German economy, with hints at future rate cuts. In Asia, Japan’s ruling party has lost its majority, and the IMF anticipates that the Bank of Japan will gradually raise rates, while China deals with record local debt defaults amid demographic challenges and trade uncertainties due to U.S. tariffs.
The team also take a look at the upcoming economic data schedule and the equities market. -
In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Ed, and Will dive into key market developments affecting energy, commodities, and the broader global economy. They discuss the recent volatility in the Dated Brent benchmark following the inclusion of WTI, and how this shift is creating discrepancies between physical and futures markets. They also explore concerns raised by Saudi officials about oil price trends and the disconnect between different market indicators - highlighting the persistence of volatility.
The team addresses U.S. politics and the impact of the upcoming election, particularly the potential economic consequences of a Trump victory. Jorge, Ed and Will also discuss the impacts of record-breaking debt levels, surging gold prices, and investor sentiment in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape. Wrapping up, they touch on the challenges faced by refineries, the potential for increased oil exports from China, and what's going on in benchmarking.
-
In this episode of Oil Insights, Martha Dowding hosts and is joined by fellow Research Associate, Mita Chaturvedi to analyse recent movements in oil prices, with a focus on Brent crude, (trading at $75/bbl at time of recording). Martha and Mita discuss three primary factors influencing prices at the moment: the potential for geopolitical flare-ups, investor positioning based on Commitment of Traders (COT) data, and expectations for a soft landing in the US economy. These factors are shaping market sentiment and driving volatility as the week progresses.
Martha and Mita discuss the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has intensified with missile strikes targeting key locations in Israel. While these incidents have not yet resulted in direct market disruptions, the potential for further escalation, including a possible Israeli strike on Iranian military assets, keeps geopolitical risks on the radar for oil traders. The market is experiencing some volatility, with heightened sensitivity to these developments.
Martha and Mita discuss the ongoing geopolitical tension - particularly the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has intensified with missile strikes targeting key locations in Israel. While these incidents have not yet resulted in direct market disruptions, the potential for further escalation, including the extent of the future Israeli strike on Iran, keeps geopolitical risks on the radar for oil traders. The market is experiencing some volatility, with heightened sensitivity to these developments.
#Geopolitical #Risk #speculativeshift #Israel #Iran #Military #Oil #oott #oilmarkets
-
On today's episode, James Brodie and James Todd dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. The U.S. housing market faces steep challenges as mortgage applications drop by 17%, and the 30-year mortgage rate hits 7.25% - the highest since July. Across the Atlantic, UK house prices show slower growth at 0.3% month-on-month.
They also cover key updates from the Federal Reserve, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasising that rate cuts are not imminent despite a strong labour market and declining inflation.
In China, the government moves to double its loans for unfinished properties to $562 billion in efforts to stabilise the housing sector, while liquidity measures and interbank rates signal ongoing stress in the financial system. With China’s credit growth slowing, they explore what this means for global investors.
As the U.S. election draws closer, they examine Trump’s growing lead in prediction markets and discuss the impact on the financial landscape as well as Elon Musk's controversial support for Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign.
Finally, tune in for insights into the crypto market as Bitcoin trends higher but faces resistance at $71,800 and $73,800. -
In this episode of Oil Insights, host Harry Tchilinguirian, Group Head of Research at Onyx Capital Group, is joined by Onyx Research Associates Vincent Wu and Martha Dowding to discuss how recent geopolitical developments have influenced the oil market. Following the October 1 missile attacks on Israel by Iran, the market is closely monitoring Israel's potential response, with Brent prices fluctuating between $73 and $80 per barrel.
The discussion also covers the latest positioning data, highlighting how money managers are taking cautious positions on Brent. A significant impact was felt when a Washington Post article reported that Israel may target military sites in Iran, not its oil or nuclear infrastructure, suggesting geopolitical uncertainty could keep oil prices volatile.
In addition, the team explore the macroeconomic headwinds from China’s economic situation and stimulus measures, shedding light on how they may affect oil prices and demand. Harry, Martha and Vincent revisit their previous prediction about Brent's trading range, noting that it remains consistent within the $70s but could shift depending on developments in the Middle East and China.
The team delve into product markets, focusing on Naphtha trends and regional differences in pricing, particularly between Asia and Europe, as they analyse the implications of gasoline demand and petrochemical sector activity.
Chapters for this episode are:
0:00 Welcome | This week in the oil markets
5:11 Brent Futures
12:47 "Crystal ball moment" - Where will Brent be trading by the end of the year?
20:46 Product of the week: Naphtha
28:00 What we’ll be watching this week | Concluding remarks -
Manny and Jonah analyse recent market trends and trading strategies in the oil sector. While the market has been relatively quiet but volatile, with crude oil prices settling in the high 70s per barrel, there is speculation around geopolitical risks - such as potential disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the impact of increased crude production in Libya. Manny points out that a sell-off in a specific part of the market curve, mainly due to excess supply and hesitant refiners, has led to a bearish outlook. She cautions about the potential bear traps, stressing that traders need to stay cautious when the market is unpredictable.
Financial traders are heavily short, anticipating continued bearish fundamentals. Meanwhile, physical traders face an oversupply situation, leading to aggressive selling. The market dynamics show herd mentality, where traders follow each other, causing rapid price movements without substantial trading activity. Jonah compares this scenario to past market behaviours in credit and crypto markets, emphasising that the current range-bound state has pushed momentum traders into uncertain territory. Despite the bearish sentiment, they suggest that a small event - like a refiner stepping in - could cause a swift price rebound, advising caution.
#oott #geoplitcalrisk #oilandgas #Israel #Iran #MiddleEast #Oilmarkets #bearish #beartrap #straightofHormuz
https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup
Follow us:
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivatives
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/
X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/ - Daha fazla göster
