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Christmas came early for Tiwai Aluminium Smelter.
They get to do business. In fact, they get to do business in a country where you would have thought doing business is to be encouraged.
They have been prevented from doing all the business they can because they have a deal with their power company, Meridian, whereby they have to contain themselves if things are a bit tight in the old power department.
It is indeed a weird, old world where we revel in ideas like AI and crypto and data centres, and yet we don’t have the slightest idea where the power to make it all work is coming from.
Big tech is under pressure globally. It is claimed they have data centres running and using things like water in areas of the planet where water is scarce.
New Zealand wants to be a data centre hub, and yet we can't allow an aluminium plant to run to its capacity because it didn’t rain enough.
The good news is it has rained a bit lately so the southern lakes look solid, which means, they think, we might not be as pinched as we have been in other winters.
The idea that you aspire to run a power grid that is reliant on things you have no control over is a very modern version of insanity.
We need it to rain, we need it to blow, and we need the sun to shine. We have no control over any of these things so we convince ourselves we aren't idiots by thinking we will build options.
So if the sun isn't out, the wind will be. Or if it doesn’t blow, at least it will rain.
But when it doesn’t do any of those things, which it hasn’t, we need Tiwai and your average punter to take it easy on the cold mornings.
And that's with, right here, right now, hardly any AI, crypto not really being a thing here, and data centres at a minimum. Imagine how stuck we would be if we had actually got any of these things up and running?
Gas would help. But Labour stopped all that and our re-opening of the market is only just beginning. We really do look very 1987.
In the meantime, the coal comes in from Indonesia, defeating the entire purpose of the climate exercise of renewables.
Cart before horse, anyone?
They say it will all work out, eventually. We will have so much renewable capacity, and we will have all bases covered, apparently. Do you believe that?
Do you believe a country that makes its biggest power user limit its capacity every time winter comes around, really is a country that deals successfully in big picture thinking?
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Politicians aren’t worrying too much about the latest poll results.
There were starkly different results in the latest RNZ-Reid Research poll and 1News-Verian poll – with the first showing the left bloc in the lead and the second showing the right bloc well ahead.
Labour’s Ginny Andersen told Mike Hosking the polls bounce around, so they don’t take them to heart that much.
She says in general, Labour is gradually trending upwards but they know they have more work to do, which is what they’ve been taking from the polls.
National’s Mark Mitchell told Hosking he doesn’t take much notice of them, as what matters is what happens next year heading into the election.
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On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 4th of June, our international visitor spending is up, but the Government hasn't taken inflation into account. Why not?
A LIV Golf-type rugby competition is attempting to get off the ground. It's called R360 and is backed by Mike Tindall.
Ginny Andersen and Mark Mitchell talk the polls, the Sport New Zealand review, the fireworks petition, and whether either of them had read Jacinda Ardern's book.
Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Foodstuffs North Island's facial recognition trial might have the tick of approval overall, but there's still work to do.
The Privacy Commission's ruled the trial was compliant with the Privacy Act and was successful in reducing harmful behaviour.
But Commissioner Michael Webster told Mike Hosking they're recommending Foodstuffs keep systems updated and review impacts of skin tone on identification accuracy.
Webster says there are still concerns over technical bias issues due to the software coming from overseas.
It's also made recommendations for other interested businesses.
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Renewing existing infrastructure rather than investing in new shiny projects is the best way to go, according to a new report co-produced by the Helen Clark Foundation and WSP New Zealand.
The foundation claims 99% of the infrastructure New Zealand needs, has already been built.
Foundation Deputy Director Kali Mercier says renewals and repairs are much cheaper.
She told Mike Hosking one of their recommendations is keeping scorecards so the management and condition of major infrastructure can be tracked.
Mercier says that currently, just one of six central government agencies keeps a full asset register, and just two have comprehensive asset management plans in place.
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New Zealand Rugby Players Association boss Rob Nichol admits their members have been approached to join a new global breakaway club competition.
R360 —backed by former England international Mike Tindall— is set to launch in 2026.
The league plans to mirror the likes of sevens and F1, moving from port to port with events at major cities and stadia around the globe.
Nichol told Mike Hosking they've been across the proposal since last year.
He says that from a player perspective, it’s about waiting and seeing as competitions like this have to get through some pretty strong headwinds to succeed.
Nichol says one of R360's proposed calendar blocks from April to June is likely to face strong opposition from the sport's global governors.
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Concerns bad investment choices in electricity generation will keep our supply unreliable.
Tiwai Point aluminium smelter is ramping up production reversing previous restrictions, to ease winter supply concerns.
Meridian Energy says the hydro storage is looking much healthier this winter.
Major Electricity Users' Group Chair John Harbord told Mike Hosking restrictions will likely be back in force next winter, without investment in firmer electricity supply like geothermal and hydro plants.
He says solar panels only generate electricity 25% of the time and wind turbines only create energy 40% of the time.
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Fewer people are behind on debt payments.
Centrix's May Indicator Report shows consumer arrears fell in April – it was the fourth month in a row where overall arrears were lower than 2024.
However, the number of consumers who are more than 90 days past due has risen to its highest since July last year.
Managing Director Keith McLaughlin told Mike Hosking they’re starting to see household budgets become balanced.
He says to an extent, it could be due to the dropping interest rates starting to flow through into budgets.
However, it could be a while before we see an easing in the high rate of company liquidations.
Company liquidations are up 30% year-on-year, with 175 recorded in April.
McLaughlin says they should stabilise in the next couple of months, before trending downward.
He says there's an increase in consumer confidence, meaning people are going out and spending more, which will create stimulation for businesses.
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Tourists are being told New Zealand is open for business.
A Government survey's found international visitor spending increased by 10% and contributed more than $12 billion to the economy in the year ending March.
But this is only 86% of pre-Covid visitor numbers and spending.
Tourism Minister Louise Upston told Mike Hosking it shows there's work to be done, especially targeting key markets like China.
She says we want our visitors to return and come back in the numbers they were.
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The UK is set to spend more on defence.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer's unveiled plans to lift the defence spend, signalling it could reach 3% of GDP at the next Parliament.
He vowed to make Britain "a battle-ready, armour-clad nation”, and Defence Secretary John Healey says they’re in a “new era of threat”, which demands a higher spend.
UK Correspondent Rod Liddle told Mike Hosking that although many understand the need for increased defence, it’s not understood where the money is going to come from.
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If the headline is right, and I hope it isn't, the Government are seeking advice on what to do about Run it Straight.
If the Government is seeking this advice, they have been sucked in.
Unless of course they are saying they are seeking advice so everyone shuts up for a bit, because the whole thing has got hopelessly out of control.
We need to break the ongoing grip too many New Zealanders have with Government, or the ongoing spell that too many are under, that Governments run our lives and it is only Government that can do stuff.
Ardie Savea, God bless him, got it spot on last week. He spoke for all of us in trying to balance a sensible observation about an activity, while balancing the reason for the angst for the tragedy that led to the heightened upset around it.
What happened was a tragedy. But accepting that, we seem unable to separate out tragedy from Government, or accident from rules, or mishap from common sense.
We fail to recognise the most obvious lack of connection – Run it Straight the competition, the organised sport, was not involved in a death.
The death happened at a 21st party. As the Prime Minister pointed out, no law is stopping a 21st.
We want desperately to stop stupidity. We would like to find a way to prevent young men, mainly, doing dumb stuff young men do.
But as Ardie quite rightly put it, the athletic side of the activity is part of contact sport. We have all in our own way, whether it be bullrush, or league, or union, or MMA, all done something like it.
Savea and his brother did what many, many, many, young men do in backyards: try to run each other over. Why is his brother called 'Bus', do you reckon?
The heat I took on this last week when I said similar things was interesting. There seem a group who feel if they spray, or get aggro with a person like me, that makes them feel better.
Maybe psychologically they can absolve themselves for feeling helpless.
Tragedy generally leaves us helpless.
But looking to a government is pointless and a government looking for advice is even more pointless.
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On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 3rd of June, the Government is shaking up WorkSafe, as well as launching their online road cone hotline.
The Prime Minister is on to talk about whether they will look to do anything with the Run it Straight trend, the India trade mission, and why we support Trump's Golden Dome.
Being a short week, we cover the long weekend of sports with Andrew Saville and Jason Pine.
Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Andrew Saville and Jason Pine joined Mike Hosking to reflect on the sport that took place over the long King’s Birthday weekend.
They covered the Warriors’ latest victory, how Super Rugby Pacific is shaping up ahead of the playoffs, and the latest in Formula 1 and IndyCar among others.
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There's hope there can be a turnaround in unruly Kāinga Ora tenants.
A Government crackdown has resulted in 63 tenancy terminations in the past 10 months - up from 11 in the year before.
Formal warnings have gone up 600%.
Litigation Lawyer Adina Thorn told Mike Hosking the figures are encouraging.
She says it looks like under this government, there’s been a big step up and a moderate to good response to the behaviour that has been going on in some KO homes across New Zealand.
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Little has come from another round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
The two countries have agreed to exchange prisoners of war, including the sick and wounded, and those under 25.
Ukraine has also launched large scale drone attacks on Russian air bases, damaging a third of its cruise missile carriers.
Geopolitical analyst Geoffrey Miller told Mike Hosking this likely won't go down well with US President Donald Trump.
He says he may see it as trying to scupper peace talks, as Trump's very much been championing the idea of talking and working out a diplomatic solution.
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Christopher Luxon says the Government's making its expectations clear when it comes to behaviour in social housing.
Kāinga Ora is formally warning seven times as many tenants as it was last financial year.
It's evicted 63 tenants in 10 months for disruptive behaviour.
The Prime Minister told Mike Hosking the enforcement action is sending a clear message about what is and isn't acceptable.
He says it's a privilege to be in a state house funded by the taxpayer, and unruly behaviour isn't okay.
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The first Kiwi has made it to space.
Christchurch entrepreneur Mark Rocket has made history as the first New Zealander in space abroad a Blue Origin mission in West Texas.
With a New Zealand flag in hand, Rocket and five others reached 105km, experiencing zero gravity during the 11-minute sub-orbital flight run by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos' space tourism company.
Mark Rocket told Mike Hosking it was an incredible and emotional experience that he would certainly repeat.
He says some highlights were doing flips mid-air and seeing the true darkness of space.
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The Workplace Relations Minister hopes WorkSafe's incoming culture shift will show they're there to help, not hurt.
The Government's instructed the regulator to move away from enforcement and engage early to support risk management.
It starts with today's opening of the road cone hotline.
Minister Brooke van Velden told Mike Hosking businesses shouldn't have to sweat the small stuff.
She says there's a culture of over-compliance and too much paperwork, instead of a focus on the risk of death or serious injury.
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Call me superficial, but to watch the Reserve Bank heavyweights lined up, as I did Wednesday post their cash rate decision, I did not see dynamism.
These people outwardly do not fill you with any sense of excitement.
The Reserve Bank is in a spot and, as a result, so are we as a country.
A couple of semi-interesting things happened and also one very interesting thing.
They voted 5 to 1 to cut. They don’t vote that often.
They also offered alternative scenarios, which they haven't done for five years. Alternative scenarios are not a good sign. If you have enough of them, you are literally making stuff up.
Anyone can drum up alternative scenarios. What I want to hear more of from experts is what is actually going on.
The important stuff is they have no bias on further cuts.
A lot of people thought we would get a cut yesterday, followed by one, possibly two, more.
The so-called "neutral rate", that's the cash rate settling at 2.75% or 2.5% – that now seems to be off the table.
Why?
They argue inflation, which is what drives them. That's their mandate.
The trouble with that is inflation is only just in the band. It's heading more towards the top of the band and here is the really big part – growth, or large dollops of growth, are not driving this inflation.
We are barely growing, if growing at all. Yet inflation is still a thing. That's not good for an economy and it's not good for the Government.
The Government, namely Willis and Luxon, leap, and have leapt, on each announcement talking about the money coming back into the economy as the interest rates drop. If the bank isn't cutting, then rates aren't dropping, and we aren't spending or feeling remotely bullish.
The Reserve Bank doesn’t care that much because they are fixated on inflation, whether it's driven by factors beyond our control —like insurance, shipping or councils— or growth.
Yes, we had growth in Q1. It was quite good growth too. The live GDP tracker has Q2 up a bit, but not much.
But it has annual numbers negative and inflation trending up.
What we need is help. We are in a quagmire we need to extricate ourselves from.
The Reserve Bank doesn’t look like they are that interested.
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Elon Musk’s time in the US Government has come to an end.
He's posted on his platform, X, saying the mission of the Department of Government Efficiency —or DOGE— will only strengthen over time.
A White House official has confirmed Musk's departure.
US Correspondent Richard Arnold told Mike Hosking there’s been mixed reviews about his work.
Musk was only able to find $9 billion in savings, despite his pledges to cut at least $2 trillion, which tech journalist Kara Swisher says means his efforts were a failure.
She says he did a lot more showmanship than he did work.
On the other hand, Trump aide Stephen Miller says what DOGE has done is “among the most valuable services ever rendered to Government”.
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- Se mer
