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To give you an insight into just how hard Christian Hawkesby's job is today, have a look at what the shadow board says.
The NZIER has a monetary policy shadow board. It’s a bunch of economists and their view as to what should be happening.
Some say drop by 25 basis points, one says 50, and some say don’t do anything.
How do you deal with that?
These are experts. They know what they are doing. Or do they?
So no matter what Christian does some of them are going to go "what on Earth was he thinking?"
Think about the difference between 50 basis points and nothing.
50 basis points is a lot. 50 means things aren't good, and we need to fire the place up a bit.
If we don't move it means things are just where we want them.
Are they where we want them? No, is my answer. But then I'm not an economist.
Most of them say things like "boy this is tricky". My word is "uncertainty" – the watch word of the day.
It's through this murky mix of "who the hell knows what's going on" that Christian has to wade and produce something that will see us head into a half decent Christmas.
Of course that’s part of the mess we are in. There is a lot of water to go under our beleaguered bridge before Christmas, and a number of decisions from the Reserve Bank, along of course with the much-dissected commentary.
What does 25, or 50 basis points, or nothing, mean? What's old Christian thinking?
I'll tell you this for nothing – a big part of this equation is mood. It’s the same with the Budget last week and the depreciation measures.
You have to want to get amongst it. You have to take your mortgage rate cut and do something with it. You have to want to buy your tractor, or ute, and depreciate it by 20%.
If you are in a funk and you're not spending, then depreciating 20% of zero is nothing and no one gains.
Christian, or Nicola for that matter, can't do it all. At some point we have to believe. We have to have our arm twisted. We have to see a bit of light.
The most powerful factor in any economy is us, and mood.
At some point a switch has to go off, a decision has to be made, and we need to look forward to better days.
Let's hope today is a part of that story.
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A new horticultural initiative is set to transform New Zealand into a commercial catnip producer.
Kiwi startup, Muttley's Estate, is believed to be the world’s first manufacturer of catnip-based 'pet wine', that can be stored for up to 12 months.
The garden herb's estimated to positively impact mood in about two-thirds of cats while helping to soothe anxiety in dogs.
Muttley's Estate Director John Roberts told Mike Hosking catnip's currently not very widespread or commercially used.
He says they're trying to grow that market segment, as it's a relatively easy crop to grow.
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Today on Politics Wednesday, Mark Mitchell and Ginny Andersen joined Mike Hosking to discuss the biggest topics of the week so far.
They discussed the shoplifting directive issued to Police – will officers still be attending retail crime incidents if the value of the theft is less than $500?
And why is Labour against the use of private hospitals to lower the public surgery backlog?
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On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Wednesday 28th of May, what will Christian Hawkesby and the Reserve Bank do today? We look ahead to this afternoon's announcement and, perhaps more importantly, the forecasts for the rest of the year.
Do we need to do something about this 'Run It Straight' game now that someone has died? Or is that leaning too much into being a nanny state?
Ginny Andersen and Mark Mitchell discuss the police directive regarding shoplifting and why Labour seems to be against private hospitals easing the public surgery backlog on Politics Wednesday.
Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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The Trade Minister says New Zealand's hustling on the world stage, looking for every opportunity.
KPMG's latest Agribusiness Agenda suggests New Zealand can't rely on our usual global customers and needs to look for new markets.
Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says this is a priority, with free trade negotiations in full force with India
He told Mike Hosking we also have to keep growing the value of our exports, something our primary sector's already seeing success with.
McClay says there's growth across the board because our farmers produce the highest quality and safest food.
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There's changes happening in the construction sector.
Construction Minister Chris Penk is launching the country's first fully independent residential building consent authority - with approval subject to certain conditions being met.
The privately-owned company, supported by the government, promises to issue building consents within 10 working days for eligible residential projects.
Penk told Mike Hosking it's another option alongside local councils.
He says initially it will be too small to take on all the work council does, but it might be able to scale up depending on what the appetite is.
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Access to the Port of Auckland is going to get more expensive for truck drivers.
Peak access charges for trucks entering the Fergusson Container Terminal will increase from $130 to $180 in January.
It will be followed by a further increase to $230, six months later.
Port of Auckland CEO Roger Gray told Mike Hosking they've given transport operators plenty of notice.
He says one of them happens in seven months and the other in 13 months, taking the port in the right direction.
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BNZ's the latest bank to drop its home loan rates, anticipating a change to the Official Cash Rate this afternoon.
The Reserve Bank's expected to cut the OCR 25 basis point to 3.25%.
Already BNZ's cut its fixed rates to as low as 4.89%, and its standard variable rate to 6.44%.
BNZ chief economist Mike Jones told Mike Hosking today's decision should indicate the Reserve Bank's general direction, but it probably won't reveal anything too specific.
He says that seems to be the playbook offshore, allowing it to take its time and assess the lay of the land at the next meeting.
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There's a belief official 'Run it Straight' events are trying to mitigate head injuries, but has risk written all over it.
Ryan Satterthwaite —a 19-year-old— has died after suffering a serious injury during a private version of the aggressive tackling game in Palmerston North on Sunday.
A championship league final has been blocked from Auckland's Trusts Arena.
Former Kiwis captain Richie Barnett told Mike Hosking the official events are a controlled environment, but heads can end up in the wrong space.
He says it's still impact, which is the problem, as you don't need to have a concussion to have a brain bleed.
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A day of celebrations has turned violent in the UK after a car collided with pedestrians at Liverpool Football Club's victory parade.
Authorities say a 53-year-old white British man has been arrested and the area has been evacuated.
47 people were injured – 27 were taken to hospital, two with serious injuries, and 20 treated on scene.
UK Correspondent Rod Liddle told Mike Hosking it doesn’t appear to be connected to terrorism at this stage.
He says the motives are a complete mystery.
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The pressure is on the new Reserve Bank fill-in Governor tomorrow.
Although given it’s a committee, in theory he is more of a messenger.
It's reported that we have increased calls for a 50 basis point cut.
Why? Because things aren't flash.
If you read business results in the current reporting season, a lot of commentary tells us the recovery is underway. Things are looking better.
We can certainly see that, for example, with retail spending. The numbers produced just last Friday for the opening quarter of the year are up, and in some parts of the sector they're up quite a bit.
We have seen manufacturing expanding for several months in a row now.
So those are the fact-based statistics. The other measures, like confidence, have dropped. We see people in the doldrums.
But that is a vibe.
Can you find people who are in the doldrums? Of course you can. But does a vibe lead to a lack of action or a lack of spend? Or do we say one thing and do another?
We also read a lot about this “uncertainty”. The uncertainty is of course Donald Trump, because Trump is increasingly seen as insane.
It may well all end in tears, threatening tariffs on Europe one day then delaying it all until July the next.
Against this, the Reserve Bank Governor has to work out whether to drop the OCR by 25 or 50 basis points. If it's 50, does that gee us all up and out we go and fire things up? If so, then next thing you know inflation is sparked up.
Does he go 25 and hint at another 25, and may even another 25?
What does he say about inflation and its uptick already, not just here but globally? Do we have the growth to support any such uptick? Is the uptick driven by actual activity, or still people just putting their prices up?
As someone said, who on Earth would want to be Reserve Bank Governor? And our one isn't even under the constant threat of being fired.
Thank the good Lord that we indisputably have an export-led recovery of sorts. Meat and wine and kiwifruit are doing the business.
But that’s over there, over here we are still in a funk.
So, what to do? Your move Christian.
No pressure then.
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A common deficiency could be holding you back.
Iron is the most common nutritional deficiency, both globally and in New Zealand, and it plays a role in everything from energy to brain function and development, thyroid function, and anxiety prevention.
Dr Libby Weaver is biochemist, nutritionist, and author, and her latest book ‘Fix Iron First’ delves into the role of iron in the body, and how a deficiency could be impacting your life.
She joined Mike Hosking to discuss her research.
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Despite the challenging economic conditions, Turners Automotive is standing strong.
The company announced a record year to March, returning a profit of $38.6 million – a 17% increase.
The result capped off what the company said was a decade of sustainable growth.
CEO Todd Hunter told Mike Hosking the secret to sustainable growth is to provide a great environment for their people.
He says they then provide a great experience for customers, and the combination of those two things delivers a great experience for their shareholders.
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On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Tuesday 27th of May, are police deliberately not investigating retail crimes if the value is under $500?
We have a big recycling problem in this country, but we also have some good old Kiwi ingenuity when it comes to old and bruised kiwifruit.
Health whiz Dr Libby Weaver is back in studio to talk iron, and whether Mike is as healthy as he thinks he is.
Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.
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A year’s worth of plastic waste, once collected for recycling, may now end up in the landfill.
The market for coloured plastics dried up with the closure of Chinese recycling plants, and as a result, the Far North District Council is set to send 190 tonnes of plastic to the landfill.
Sue Coutts, Director of External Affairs for Zero Waste Network NZ, told Mike Hosking it’s no surprise the coloured bottles won’t be recycled, as they’ve known they can’t be for about a decade.
She says there’s plenty of good ideas out there to mitigate the problem, they just need to be implemented.
Coutts says the Government is currently consulting on extending producer responsibility, which would put the problem back into the hands of the ones creating it.
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Kiwi ingenuity has found a new use for the 50,000 tonnes of kiwifruit that is rejected each year.
KiwiLeather Innovations is taking the byproduct and turning it into a plant-based leather alternative.
Founder Shelley Houston told Mike Hosking it takes about 500 grams to make a square meter of the alternative leather.
She says they’re targeting the automotive sector, as brands like Tesla are already using things like cactus leather for their interiors.
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Nelson's Mayor says upgrading the city's hospital will be a turning point for its health services.
Completion of a 128-bed inpatient building has been brought forward two years to 2029.
Nick Smith told Mike Hosking the city’s health services have been under real pressure, with the old buildings dating back to 1955 and 1970.
He says it's encouraging not only to have the $500 million upgrade, but also the 32 bed temporary inpatient ward.
Smith told Hosking it gives them both immediate relief, but also enables the redevelopment and earthquake strengthening to be done really well.
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The Government's being accused of rushing a greyhound racing ban, affecting hundreds of jobs.
Racing Minister Winston Peters gave the industry 20 months to wind down from November.
Greyhound Racing NZ is applying for a judicial review, saying the Government failed to inform, prepare, and consult on the ban.
CEO Edward Rennell says many only found out shortly before the announcement.
He told Mike Hosking they've had no engagement from the Government and nothing in writing on the decision – the only way they’ve been able to determine how it was made was through the Official Information Act.
Based on that information, Rennell says the paper that went to cabinet was highly selective and didn’t present complete facts.
“When you’re looking to take away $159 million from the economy and 1,054 jobs, surely you have an obligation to review the full facts.”
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Retailers are seeking clarity on a Police directive on shoplifting.
RNZ reports police staff have been told to not investigate allegations of theft below $500.
Police may not take further action if the reports don't have enough evidence, such as CCTV.
Chair of the Ministry of Justice's Retail Crime Advisory Group Sunny Kaushal told Mike Hosking retailers are concerned.
He says similar policies have already failed in America and the UK, where gangs of shoplifters exploit them to make illegal gains without consequences.
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It is suggested Peter Dutton in Australia lost the election because of his nuclear issue and work from home policies.
I personally think he lost because they ran a hopeless campaign. But it is more than possible that he floated a couple of ideas that the voter simply could not stomach.
I am wondering if Chris Luxon is heading in a similar direction here with superannuation.
Nuclear makes sense. Working from home hinders productivity. But the voter is always right and being a voter beats logic.
Will the voter be right here on superannuation? Are there enough New Zealanders who have landed on the simple truth that 65-years-old, as a pension age, is no longer sensible, nor affordable?
$28 billion is the bill each year, and growing. That seems worse now because we are broke. But even in good times it’s a stunning amount of money.
National will take it to the vote next year. They may be saved from themselves by NZ First, if they are still in the mix, because it will be a bottom line.
But we reach the interesting point where logic and emotion collide.
For many, superannuation is untouchable. It’s a lifetime's worth of work. "i paid my taxes" they say, even though that line isn't actually real because we spent your taxes years ago and then borrowed a bit more to keep the lights on.
65-years-old is the new 50-years-old and, post-Covid, older workers have never been in more demand. The days of being out to pasture are increasingly gone. 65-years-old is not old.
Imagine a day where you enter the workforce knowing you need to take care of yourself. Yes, if you strike trouble the pension is a welfare payment, not an entitlement.
But we either have to change the narrative and mindset from entitlement to welfare, or we need to up the age. In upping the age over time, even giving years worth of notice, it's still a very big call.
It underlines our desire for free stuff, or perceived free stuff. Once you set a precedent with money it is fantastically hard to undo.
But Luxon, apparently, is keen to give it a crack. He calls it a no brainer.
First clue - there aren't many who think it’s a no brainer. Labour learnt the hard way over the capital gains tax.
Luxon may be about to learn something similar.
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