Episodes
-
US equities ended higher this week and largely in waiting mode ahead of next week's CPI reading. Market navigated a largely catalyst-free trading period this week with depressed volumes as it waits for next week's April CPI reading. There were both bullish and bearish narratives throughout the week. With Friday's nonfarm payrolls report below consensus, this week's claims numbers further alleviated some concerns around the economy heating up rather than cooling.
-
US equities ended higher Thursday, extending the week's upside, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq both on pace for third-straight weekly gains after three-straight weekly declines. The market had a generally constructive tone today, though there is still a lot of anticipation for CPI next week. Weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly jumped to 231K after weeks near 210K, while continuing claims were in line.
-
Missing episodes?
-
US equities ended mixed in Wednesday trading, with the Dow Jones closing up 44bps, while the S&P500 finished flat and the Nasdaq down 18bps. Fed's Collins said getting to 2% target inflation may take longer than expected. Today's auction of $42B of 10-year notes tailed after yesterday's well-received 3Y auction; with $25B in 30Y bonds coming up for sale tomorrow. Bank of Japan Governor Ueda stepped up warning over weak yen's impact on monetary policy.
-
US equities ended mostly higher Tuesday in a fairly uneventful trading session. The Fed's Kashkari said he questions policy restrictiveness given inflation data and was the latest central banker to talk about a higher neutral. Today's auction of $58B of 3Y notes stopped through with help from solid foreign demand.
-
US equities were higher in Monday trading, ending at session highs. Not much behind today's upside with few catalysts, no real change to any of the key themes, and market volumes low. The Fed Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey said slightly more banks tightened C&I loan standards in Q1 and saw weaker C&I, industrial and residential real estate demand quarter over quarter.
-
Stocks were higher as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq erased early-week declines off of relatively dovish Fed takeaways and an April payrolls report that added some support to the soft landing theme. Wednesday's May FOMC meeting ended with no change to the policy rate as expected, holding at 5.25-5.50%. Data this week offered some mixed takeaways.
-
US equities finished solidly higher in Thursday trading, ending a bit off best levels. The simplest excuses for today's more optimistic tone are dovish takeaways from Powell's Fed comments yesterday and the lower-rate backdrop. Q1 productivity undershot expectations while unit labor costs up at a 4.7% SAAR (though up 1.8% across last four quarters).
-
US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, with the market selling off into the close, after a big post-Powell boost; Dow Jones finished +23bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq closed down 34bps and 33bps respectively. Fed left rates unchanged, as expected, and announced a larger-than-expected reduction in Treasury runoff caps from $60B to $25B, starting in June. ISM manufacturing index missed and moved back into contraction territory. JOLTS job openings came in lower than expected. April ADP private payrolls were ahead of consensus.
-
US equities ended lower Tuesday, near worst levels, with stocks more than erasing Monday's modest gains. Market was on the defensive today after hotter Q1 ECI data sparked a rise in Treasury yields. Growth concerns also in the mix after weakest consumer confidence print since July 2022 and lowest Chicago PMI since November 2022. Earnings a mixed bag ahead of some additional big tech reports over the next couple of days.
-
US equities ended higher Monday, just off best levels, in a mostly uneventful day of trading. The market gave up some strength in the later afternoon after the US Treasury released Q2 borrowing estimates that were marginally higher than the January estimate. Another big earnings week is ahead with 175 S&P 500 companies reporting this week.
-
US equities were higher for the week, with the S&P breaking a streak of three straight weekly declines and the Nasdaq up after four weeks down. Corporate earnings were a big part of the week's narrative, with investors taking in reports from 158 S&P constituents--including several highly anticipated megacap tech firms. April flash PMIs came in broadly below consensus, reflecting an overall reduction in orders for the first time in six months and companies scaling back employment for the first time in nearly four years.
-
US equities ended lower Thursday, just off best levels as market regained some sharp early-morning losses. The market shook off some of the overhang from disappointing tech earnings and stagflation worries sparked by this morning's economic data. The first read for Q1 GDP came in below consensus at a 1.6% SAAR, with the release noting increased consumer spending, but weaker private inventory investment.
-
US equities finished mixed in Wednesday trading, little changed after a strong start to week, with the Dow Jones down 11 bps, while the S&P500 and Nasdaq finished up 2bps and 10bps respectively. March headline and core durable goods orders beat though February revised down across the board. Today's $70B auction of five-year notes tailed after yesterday's strong two-year note auction. Visa was helped by accelerating US volumes.
-
US equities ended higher Tuesday, near best levels. Momentum, growth, long duration, small-caps, and lower quality were the big factor beneficiaries. Bounce continued today with help from lower rates/weaker dollar in the wake of softer flash PMI data. Some better earnings takeaways, particularly from several of the higher-profile names also helping.
-
US equities ended higher Monday, off best levels. Market bounce seems to be gaining traction amid talks that recent selloff is more technical than fundamental. While macro is quiet, micro has very busy with approximately 40% of the S&P 500 scheduled to report this week.
-
US equities ended mostly lower this week as the market struggled to shake off more hawkish repricing of Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical volatility in the Middle East. Recent Fedspeak supplied ongoing support for higher-for-longer rate narrative with Powell noting this week recent data has shown lack of further progress on inflation. Beyond more hawkish Fed commentary and volatile geopolitics, some other bearish narratives from this week included a big retail sales beat, flagging AI tailwinds as NVDA and SOX are both in corrections, stretched systematic long positioning, and spiking volatility with the VIX at six-month highs.
-
US equities finished mostly lower in Thursday trading, ending near worst levels. For the second straight day, the market's bounce attempt ran out of gas, though not much behind today's weakness, with rates the easiest excuse as the 2Y is back near year to date highs. The April Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index notably improved month over month, hitting its highest level since April 2022, while employment remained in contraction.
-
US equities finished lower in Wednesday trading, ending a bit off worst levels, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 12bps, 58bps, and 115bps respectively. Today's $13B 20Y auction stronger than expected after last week's string of weak auctions. Latest Fed Beige Book said economy expanded slightly, while price increases were little changed since late February, but consumer spending reports were mixed. Reports Biden will propose a big hike in tariffs on China steel and aluminum.
-
US equities finished mostly lower in up-and-down Tuesday trading. S&P ended down for a third-straight session with equal-weight S&P a notable laggard to the official index. Tone continued to be driven by hawkish repricing of Fed pivot expectations alongside solid economic data and sticky inflation. Another busy day of Fedspeak with Powell noting recent data shows lack of further progress on inflation.
-
US equities finished lower in Monday trading, ending near worst levels. Some post-bell strength began reversing early in the session, and stocks came under pressure for much of the afternoon. March retail sales beat, while ex-autos and fuel and control group sales also ahead.