Episodi
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Our previous analysis of the US Presidential election was wrong – and by a wide margin. Obviously there’s a huge level of anger, resentment and frustration in the American system. Donald Trump has won a bigger victory than in 2016 – and the consequences for Australia are unknown. Any Australian politician assuming it’s business as usual runs the risk of making a major mistake. What do we do if Donald Trump jacks up the cost of acquiring nuclear-powered submarines by a lot? Has anyone in Defence or the government thought through those consequences? And please don’t say it could never happen. A quick summary of SEA 3000 – and it’s between Germany and Japan. Then the Submarine Institute of Australia conference where Chief of Navy mistakenly re-read his 2023 speech and during which journalists were told they would be kicked out of the venue if they approached anyone at morning tea to say hello. The Virginia class program is in big trouble because of supply chain issues – but you will never hear that from an Australian official. Finally, Army’s campaign of deception about the performance of Black Hawk helicopters continues. Someone has to put a stop to this outrage – it’s wrong at every possible level.
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We start with Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy at the NPC last week and lots of stuff about extra missiles for the ADF. That’s all well and good – but these things are either fully imported or, at best, manufactured under license here with a few local components. There are no longer any sovereign Australian IP in weapons – we seem to have collectively given up on the idea of designing any ourselves. The latest from the mess that is AUKUS Pillar One. Then a few words about the shock cancellation of JP9102. There goes the last chance of any form of sovereign satellite communications capability – it’s back to bad old days of having to go cap in hand to the US for some bandwidth – and then being charged a fortune for it. Finally, the shortlist for SEA 3000 the General Purpose Frigates approaches – and golly gosh what an unmitigated disaster this project is.
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Episodi mancanti?
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In this episode we have some truly stunning – and worrying – information that the rate of US nuclear powered submarine construction is slowing down, not speeding up. The information is on the public record and comes from the CEO of Electric Boat, Phebe Novakovic in a briefing for shareholders. The problem is with the supply chain – companies manufacturing critical components cannot keep up with the required rate and as a consequence both the Columbia class SSBNs and Virginia SSNs will be delayed. This must be worrying news for the RAN – and it seems astounding that there has been no reporting of note in Australia about a development that could completely derail AUKUS Pillar One. The US also seems to be counting on Australia lifting Defence expenditure so that it can afford these submarines without cutting other capabilities – but that is exactly what has already started to happen. Finally, Defence officials have once again managed to get their way and have hounded German shipbuilding company Luerssen out of Australia.
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Last week saw a bit of extra good news for Ukraine with the announcement that Australia will donate 49 M1A1 Abrams Main Battle Tanks that are being retired from service. An extra 10 Abrams will be available for spare parts, or they could be returned to a usable condition. No matter how you look at this, it’s a significant contribution because while the tanks are a bit long in the tooth they are still a formidable capability, particularly against the ageing junk that Russia is now forced to field. Also last week saw a bit of coverage of the latest US Congressional Research Service report into AUKUS Pillar One – and it identifies a number of failures in the Australian process. Related to this, we are spending billions of dollars in WA getting ready for the deployment of US and possibly UK nuclear-powered submarines with no one doing the analysis of whether we should simply increase the size of that force for the defence of Australia. Finally some words about the company Austal – how come they are all of a sudden in such a privileged position?
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We start with a Canberra bubble story – but one with national implications – the strange tale of the former Chief of Staff to Defence Minister Richard Marles. The CoS of a Minister plays a vital role in the daily running of the office and has additional important duties such as liaising with the Department, other Ministers and various stakeholders. Without a competent CoS in place an office rapidly becomes dysfunctional. Then a few more words about the unfolding disaster of SEA 3000, which is coming up for some form of short listing in November. Also we are starting to receive some information about how much Australia has earned from the sale of Taipan helicopter spare parts. The answer is – probably zero. Unfortunately it looks like the Tiger Armed Reconnaissance helicopters are also being mismanaged and unless there’s an urgent change of direction they will similarly end up in landfill. They should instead be going to Ukraine and there’s a case study that needs to be read aloud to every person in Army connected with the destruction of the Taipan fleet.
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There are 5 ship designers in the running for the SEA 3000 General Purpose Frigate contract – and 2 of them are from South Korea. In this episode we discuss Hanwha Ocean, based on a visit to their extremely impressive facility at Okpo near Busan on the south coast of the country. However, we could not discuss their Australian bid because the government has banned companies from speaking with the media under threat that if they do so their participation in the competition will be instantly cancelled. This is to prevent any information about how badly this project is being bungled by the RAN ever reaching the Australian public. Even with that restriction there was still plenty to talk about, including Hanwha Ocean frigates for the Korean and Thai navies. Then a few words about industry policy, where the government of South Korea is doing the Australian government’s job for it. As promised, a few words about UK nuclear submarine projects – and they are struggling so badly with their own programs it is hard to see how they will ever manage to design and build SSN AUKUS.
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Why does the Australian government show so little enthusiasm for increasing the amount of aid going to Ukraine? Doing so is overwhelmingly popular with about 80% of Australians in favour. However, it looks like the government and our officials are doing just enough to tick a few boxes. At a minimum a single person with a lot of authority needs to be put in charge of the aid program – and they need to get moving. Then a media trip to a factory in the Queensland town of Maryborough that manufactures 155mm artillery shells – and all of them are purchased by the German government before finding their way to Ukraine. A Joint Venture between Australian company NIOA and Germany’s Rheinmetall Waffe Munition, it could form an essential part of a sovereign 155mm projectile capability – but again that requires a decision followed by action. Finally a few words about AUKUS and Virginia class submarines – we do the maths and figure which ones we might receive.
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We return to some favourite themes: nuclear powered submarines; Taipan helicopters; and aid for Ukraine. But before that a few words about the Middle East and what looks to be a further deterioration in an already bad situation. Everyone shares blame, but it’s worth noting that major demographic changes mean that Israel is different from the country in the 1970s that many of us found inspirational. It must occur to people that there are some in Israel who don’t want peace with Hamas but will happily continue bombing Gaza until nothing remains. Equally, leaders of Hamas and Hezbollah don’t care how many of their own people die. After that, why cannot VADM Jonathon Mead – or the government - answer the simple question: what happens if the US cannot lift the production rate of Virginia class submarines to 2:33 per year.? It’s a very simple question without an answer. We conclude with updates on last year’s Taipan helicopter ditching and problems with the flow of aid to Ukraine.
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This is the Land Forces exhibition special feature with some random highlights from the show last week. These included an uncrewed 8-wheeled armoured ground vehicle enabled by AI and designed by BAE Systems to operate with conventional forces. Also SPEE3D, an Australian company using additive manufacturing to undertake in-field repairs. Despite international success – including sending units to Ukraine – do you think the Australian Army has bought any? A few words about Hanwha, the South Korean company that has gone from obscurity to now being the largest supplier, by dollar value, to the Army. They have announced that Sydney-based Advanced Navigation will become part of their global supply chains, which should be a huge boost to business. And some unexpected success – Chief of the Army has agreed to an interview to discuss the Taipan helicopter fiasco (my words, not his). Let’s hope other senior figures also push back against ridiculous Ministerial interference in what they can say in public.
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The government and the Australian Submarine Agency are up to their usual tricks of minimising scrutiny by playing media favourites. Not only is this wrong in principle it’s a symptom of deeper problems in the ASA – and there will be a lot more coming out about that in the next few days. People who know what they are doing enjoy having their ideas challenged and it is generally the poor performers who prefer to hide. And with that in mind, our squabble with Army over the destruction of the Taipan helicopter fleet continues. Why does it matter any longer now that the damage has been done? Two reasons – this fiasco should never be repeated; and secondly, let’s have some accountability. Army have been concealing true support costs for years – and we blow the whistle on some of those. Finally, the General Purpose Frigate program and could we be seeing a tiny glimpse of sanity?
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Unusually, we can start with two pieces of positive news. On August 22, Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy announced that the government will spend $850 million on a factory in Newcastle that will produce Naval Strike Missiles and Joint Strike Missiles. These come from Norwegian company Kongsberg and will drastically improve the anti-ship capabilities of the ADF. This follows a decision to also manufacture GMLRS rounds locally for Army’s HIMARS launchers. After a slow start the GWEO is developing some momentum. On the next day, Defence Minister Richard Marles opened Hanwha’s armoured vehicle centre of excellence near Avalon airport. It will build Huntsman 155mm Self Propelled Howitzers and tracked Redback Infantry Fighting Vehicles – another positive for Australian manufacturing. Finally, the 3-way technology sharing agreement between the US, UK and Australia is already showing some major deficiencies. No surprise there.
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The government has announced, in its usual over-the-top manner, reforms to the export licensing system between Australia, the US and the UK. While this is fine in principle, it is based on an absolute lie, namely that Australia exports $5 billion worth of military technology to those partner countries. This is a joke. We sell some F-35 components to the US and almost nothing to the UK. The true figure is likely to be one twentieth of the government’s claim. At the same time, former Minister for Foreign Affairs was giving a speech with the title: “AUKUS – the worst defence and foreign policy decision our country has made.” More to come on this. Then let’s talk a bit more about the advantages of nuclear propulsion versus conventional – and many of the claimed differences don’t stand up to rigorous scrutiny. Also technological advances are making the South China Sea too difficult to operate a crewed submarine in today – let alone 10 years from now.
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There’s more AUKUS stupidity to talk about, with now a secret political deal with the US and UK to be factored in. It is so secret that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese doesn’t seem to have any idea what it’s about. There’s speculation that it could compel Australia to go to war with China over Taiwan – but that issue is more nuanced than most people understand. Or could it be about the storage in Australia of high level nuclear waste from other countries – which seems irrelevant since we will be storing many hundreds of tonnes of high level waste from our own decommissioned submarines. Why is the media incapable of asking obvious follow up questions? The only way left to reform the system is to start a new political party called Transparent Government and start taking seats off Labor, preferably including Corio, currently held by Richard Marles. Finally some wise words from David Sanger, one of the best and most knowledgeable national security journalists in the US.
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A poor start from new CDF Admiral David Johnson, who told ABC News Breakfast television that every day sees an increase in ADF capability.
The opposite appears to be the case with Navy in particular going backwards, followed by the Army – and for the next 10 years the RAAF isn’t receiving anything new thanks to budget restrictions.
Spotted during Exercise Talisman Sabre – Defence Minister Richard Marles riding in an Italian NH90 helicopter, which is almost identical to the 45 Australian Taipans he ordered destroyed in September last year. Might he have had the thought “how come the Italians can support these helicopters when the Australian Army could not?”
Then it looks like there’s a coordinated push back against criticism of AUKUS Pillar One, so we pour a bit more fuel over that particular fire. Finally an anecdote about Ministerial pomposity – or rather the lack of it – from the 1980s.
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We have been at the Indian Ocean Defence and Security (IODS) conference in Perth – so plenty of naval things to talk about. First, ASA Head VADM Jonathon Mead refreshingly and honestly said that there were many obstacles to overcome before nuclear-powered submarines could be delivered, a nice change from the previous rhetoric that everything was fine. Speaking with well qualified industry people from the US and UK, the consensus is that Australia is already a decade behind where we need to be with factors such as training and infrastructure. Then a remarkable offer from the Korean government to deliver the first General Purpose Frigate by 2029 and the next two by 2030 if either Hyundai or Hanwha are selected. Finally, what do people not understand about the Luerssen corvette offer? It’s all about maintaining the Arafura supply chain and getting very rapid capability to the RAN. And we do a bit of character assassination along the way.
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There are no new procurement disasters to talk about, so let’s do some big picture stuff. Why is it that two former Prime Ministers, one Labor and one Liberal – Malcolm Turnbull and Paul Keating – think that AUKUS Pillar One is a thoroughly bad idea, but Anthony Albanese and Scott Morrison are uncritically boosting it? Could it be explained by the different backgrounds they all have and whether or not they are able to apply critical thinking to major projects? Successfully completing an acquisition or winning a project involves a lot more than being enthusiastic about the result. It might be the case that the uncritical AUKUS mindset is beginning to infect other processes, such as the disastrous General Purpose Frigate acquisition.
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We have to start with some words about the attempted assassination of Donald Trump and what that might mean for Australia. It almost certainly now means the re-election of someone who is profoundly pro-Russian, anti-European and with an ambivalent attitude towards the Asia-Pacific region. Australian politicians are so in thrall of the US that they constantly drone on about shared values, which are actually few and far between. The US remains our strongest security partner but we will have to do more for ourselves – after all the US previously withdrew from Asia as part of the Guam doctrine in the early 1970s. Related to this, last week there was a very important South Korea – Australia defence forum in Canberra. This was an initiative from the ROK and included offers made at Ministerial level for cooperation on cyber, uninhabited systems – and a remarkable initiative to co-develop and jointly fund a space port. Defence officials should be on their way to Seoul right now to follow up on this.
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We start with an overview of recent and ongoing Defence procurement disasters – not to bore people but as a reminder that there is something seriously wrong with how the system functions. Defence Minister Richard Marles continues to think that everything is fine when in fact it is not. Another concern is the amount of misinformation coming from Defence officials – and we aren’t talking about the occasional slip of the tongue. Testimony has been given to Senate Estimates that is just plain provably wrong on multiple topics. A few words about psychology and how it is that objectively stupid decisions such as destroying and burying Taipan helicopters can gain Ministerial endorsement rather than be sent back to the drawing board. To lighten the mood – an anecdote from the time when we had a Minister who was capable of thinking objectively and believing the evidence of his own eyes rather than the official nonsense he was told.
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Firstly another interview with Defence Minister Richard Marles, from which we learned nothing useful. More about the RAAF $10 billion error in not considering the Embraer C390 as the replacement for the C-130J fleet. As several countries have discovered, the C390 is less expensive to acquire, costs less to support – and flies faster and further with more cargo than a C-130J. We quote extensively from the publicly available Dutch evaluation of the two aircraft, which conclusively concludes that the C390 is by far the better choice. South Korea has come to exactly the same conclusion. The RAAF didn’t even bother looking at it. The General Purpose Frigate situation keeps getting worse – and the government and the RAN are walking into a complete disaster. Finally, having no refund clause for our forthcoming $4.6 billion donation to the US submarine industrial base makes Australia’s AUKUS negotiating position immeasurably weaker.
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Greetings from Brazil, where we are checking out the Embraer KC-390 twin jet airlifter. It can carry more cargo than a C-130J a lot further and a lot faster. Yet Australia is spending almost $10 billion for 20 C-130Js without the benefit of any sort of competitive evaluation. But it’s actually far worse than that because we are getting fewer C-130Js for more money than originally indicated – a major scandal that has been sitting in plain sight for more than a year and which has received no scrutiny at all. Two of the toughest, most objective, evaluators of military equipment are the Netherlands and South Korea. During the last 12 months they have both selected the KC-390 instead of the C-130J. Does it look like the RAAF has made the wrong choice? You bet it does – and it’s happened because they have been too lazy to do their job properly. And a few final words about smoking helicopter engines.
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