Episodi
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This is the Land Forces exhibition special feature with some random highlights from the show last week. These included an uncrewed 8-wheeled armoured ground vehicle enabled by AI and designed by BAE Systems to operate with conventional forces. Also SPEE3D, an Australian company using additive manufacturing to undertake in-field repairs. Despite international success – including sending units to Ukraine – do you think the Australian Army has bought any? A few words about Hanwha, the South Korean company that has gone from obscurity to now being the largest supplier, by dollar value, to the Army. They have announced that Sydney-based Advanced Navigation will become part of their global supply chains, which should be a huge boost to business. And some unexpected success – Chief of the Army has agreed to an interview to discuss the Taipan helicopter fiasco (my words, not his). Let’s hope other senior figures also push back against ridiculous Ministerial interference in what they can say in public.
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The government and the Australian Submarine Agency are up to their usual tricks of minimising scrutiny by playing media favourites. Not only is this wrong in principle it’s a symptom of deeper problems in the ASA – and there will be a lot more coming out about that in the next few days. People who know what they are doing enjoy having their ideas challenged and it is generally the poor performers who prefer to hide. And with that in mind, our squabble with Army over the destruction of the Taipan helicopter fleet continues. Why does it matter any longer now that the damage has been done? Two reasons – this fiasco should never be repeated; and secondly, let’s have some accountability. Army have been concealing true support costs for years – and we blow the whistle on some of those. Finally, the General Purpose Frigate program and could we be seeing a tiny glimpse of sanity?
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Episodi mancanti?
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Unusually, we can start with two pieces of positive news. On August 22, Defence Industry Minister Pat Conroy announced that the government will spend $850 million on a factory in Newcastle that will produce Naval Strike Missiles and Joint Strike Missiles. These come from Norwegian company Kongsberg and will drastically improve the anti-ship capabilities of the ADF. This follows a decision to also manufacture GMLRS rounds locally for Army’s HIMARS launchers. After a slow start the GWEO is developing some momentum. On the next day, Defence Minister Richard Marles opened Hanwha’s armoured vehicle centre of excellence near Avalon airport. It will build Huntsman 155mm Self Propelled Howitzers and tracked Redback Infantry Fighting Vehicles – another positive for Australian manufacturing. Finally, the 3-way technology sharing agreement between the US, UK and Australia is already showing some major deficiencies. No surprise there.
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The government has announced, in its usual over-the-top manner, reforms to the export licensing system between Australia, the US and the UK. While this is fine in principle, it is based on an absolute lie, namely that Australia exports $5 billion worth of military technology to those partner countries. This is a joke. We sell some F-35 components to the US and almost nothing to the UK. The true figure is likely to be one twentieth of the government’s claim. At the same time, former Minister for Foreign Affairs was giving a speech with the title: “AUKUS – the worst defence and foreign policy decision our country has made.” More to come on this. Then let’s talk a bit more about the advantages of nuclear propulsion versus conventional – and many of the claimed differences don’t stand up to rigorous scrutiny. Also technological advances are making the South China Sea too difficult to operate a crewed submarine in today – let alone 10 years from now.
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There’s more AUKUS stupidity to talk about, with now a secret political deal with the US and UK to be factored in. It is so secret that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese doesn’t seem to have any idea what it’s about. There’s speculation that it could compel Australia to go to war with China over Taiwan – but that issue is more nuanced than most people understand. Or could it be about the storage in Australia of high level nuclear waste from other countries – which seems irrelevant since we will be storing many hundreds of tonnes of high level waste from our own decommissioned submarines. Why is the media incapable of asking obvious follow up questions? The only way left to reform the system is to start a new political party called Transparent Government and start taking seats off Labor, preferably including Corio, currently held by Richard Marles. Finally some wise words from David Sanger, one of the best and most knowledgeable national security journalists in the US.
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A poor start from new CDF Admiral David Johnson, who told ABC News Breakfast television that every day sees an increase in ADF capability.
The opposite appears to be the case with Navy in particular going backwards, followed by the Army – and for the next 10 years the RAAF isn’t receiving anything new thanks to budget restrictions.
Spotted during Exercise Talisman Sabre – Defence Minister Richard Marles riding in an Italian NH90 helicopter, which is almost identical to the 45 Australian Taipans he ordered destroyed in September last year. Might he have had the thought “how come the Italians can support these helicopters when the Australian Army could not?”
Then it looks like there’s a coordinated push back against criticism of AUKUS Pillar One, so we pour a bit more fuel over that particular fire. Finally an anecdote about Ministerial pomposity – or rather the lack of it – from the 1980s.
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We have been at the Indian Ocean Defence and Security (IODS) conference in Perth – so plenty of naval things to talk about. First, ASA Head VADM Jonathon Mead refreshingly and honestly said that there were many obstacles to overcome before nuclear-powered submarines could be delivered, a nice change from the previous rhetoric that everything was fine. Speaking with well qualified industry people from the US and UK, the consensus is that Australia is already a decade behind where we need to be with factors such as training and infrastructure. Then a remarkable offer from the Korean government to deliver the first General Purpose Frigate by 2029 and the next two by 2030 if either Hyundai or Hanwha are selected. Finally, what do people not understand about the Luerssen corvette offer? It’s all about maintaining the Arafura supply chain and getting very rapid capability to the RAN. And we do a bit of character assassination along the way.
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There are no new procurement disasters to talk about, so let’s do some big picture stuff. Why is it that two former Prime Ministers, one Labor and one Liberal – Malcolm Turnbull and Paul Keating – think that AUKUS Pillar One is a thoroughly bad idea, but Anthony Albanese and Scott Morrison are uncritically boosting it? Could it be explained by the different backgrounds they all have and whether or not they are able to apply critical thinking to major projects? Successfully completing an acquisition or winning a project involves a lot more than being enthusiastic about the result. It might be the case that the uncritical AUKUS mindset is beginning to infect other processes, such as the disastrous General Purpose Frigate acquisition.
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We have to start with some words about the attempted assassination of Donald Trump and what that might mean for Australia. It almost certainly now means the re-election of someone who is profoundly pro-Russian, anti-European and with an ambivalent attitude towards the Asia-Pacific region. Australian politicians are so in thrall of the US that they constantly drone on about shared values, which are actually few and far between. The US remains our strongest security partner but we will have to do more for ourselves – after all the US previously withdrew from Asia as part of the Guam doctrine in the early 1970s. Related to this, last week there was a very important South Korea – Australia defence forum in Canberra. This was an initiative from the ROK and included offers made at Ministerial level for cooperation on cyber, uninhabited systems – and a remarkable initiative to co-develop and jointly fund a space port. Defence officials should be on their way to Seoul right now to follow up on this.
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We start with an overview of recent and ongoing Defence procurement disasters – not to bore people but as a reminder that there is something seriously wrong with how the system functions. Defence Minister Richard Marles continues to think that everything is fine when in fact it is not. Another concern is the amount of misinformation coming from Defence officials – and we aren’t talking about the occasional slip of the tongue. Testimony has been given to Senate Estimates that is just plain provably wrong on multiple topics. A few words about psychology and how it is that objectively stupid decisions such as destroying and burying Taipan helicopters can gain Ministerial endorsement rather than be sent back to the drawing board. To lighten the mood – an anecdote from the time when we had a Minister who was capable of thinking objectively and believing the evidence of his own eyes rather than the official nonsense he was told.
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Firstly another interview with Defence Minister Richard Marles, from which we learned nothing useful. More about the RAAF $10 billion error in not considering the Embraer C390 as the replacement for the C-130J fleet. As several countries have discovered, the C390 is less expensive to acquire, costs less to support – and flies faster and further with more cargo than a C-130J. We quote extensively from the publicly available Dutch evaluation of the two aircraft, which conclusively concludes that the C390 is by far the better choice. South Korea has come to exactly the same conclusion. The RAAF didn’t even bother looking at it. The General Purpose Frigate situation keeps getting worse – and the government and the RAN are walking into a complete disaster. Finally, having no refund clause for our forthcoming $4.6 billion donation to the US submarine industrial base makes Australia’s AUKUS negotiating position immeasurably weaker.
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Greetings from Brazil, where we are checking out the Embraer KC-390 twin jet airlifter. It can carry more cargo than a C-130J a lot further and a lot faster. Yet Australia is spending almost $10 billion for 20 C-130Js without the benefit of any sort of competitive evaluation. But it’s actually far worse than that because we are getting fewer C-130Js for more money than originally indicated – a major scandal that has been sitting in plain sight for more than a year and which has received no scrutiny at all. Two of the toughest, most objective, evaluators of military equipment are the Netherlands and South Korea. During the last 12 months they have both selected the KC-390 instead of the C-130J. Does it look like the RAAF has made the wrong choice? You bet it does – and it’s happened because they have been too lazy to do their job properly. And a few final words about smoking helicopter engines.
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Before we say some more about the General Purpose Frigate debacle let’s unpack the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine debacle and the revelation in Senate Estimates hearings that we are making two almost identical $4.7 billion payments to US and UK companies without a refund clause. Mind you that information had to be dragged out of ASA Head, VADM Jonathon Mead, who refused to answer several questions about a refund or clawback clause. Clearly there isn’t one. Imagine if it were revealed that the government had given $9.4 billion to a company to build a hospital without any conditions and no refund clause. There would be outrage because nothing would prevent the company pocketing all of the cash and laughing at taxpayers. Then the General Purpose frigate – and there is more evidence to show that neither Navy nor the Independent Review Team have a clue about what they are doing. Finally a positive story about how Navy used to communicate in the days before they became a US-obsessed cult, unused to ever being questioned.
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Episode 50 but there’s no time for self-congratulations because there’s more Defence incompetence to talk about – and top of the list is the General Purpose Frigate. In this country we are told nothing, but speaking in the UK the Head of RAN Capability explained that, yes, we will be purchasing an existing design with no changes whatsoever. None. However, this new design is also expected to comply with Australian regulations and be compatible with existing Australian and allied combat systems. In other words, this is impossible. You cannot have a ship built for another navy and for it to also be fully compliant with Australian standards – it cannot be done and people arguing to the contrary clearly have zero project management experience. Also we unpack the smearing of Luerssen and the disgraceful rumours peddled by the RAN to cover up their own failures. There is a way to fix the capability gap – build corvettes based on the Arafura design that will have 80% Australian content with the first ship delivered from Henderson in 2026.
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In this episode we have a bit more to say about the ridiculous levels of secrecy surrounding military projects in this country. In comparison, the US tries to be helpful, as evidenced by a couple of recent visits, including by Lieutenant General Steven Sklenka from the Marine Corps. Also a look at the recently passed Securing Australia’s Military Secrets (SAMS) legislation, which is obviously written by lawyers who don’t know what they are doing. No wonder so few people want to join the ADF. And another Kingo Hotel Friday lunchtime rumour: the project to equip Australia’s armoured vehicles with active protection systems has been scrapped because of budget issues. After recording this there is news about the General Purpose Frigate – the government has released something called an Approach To Industry, but has given companies an insanely short 3 week period to reply. More on this in the next episode.
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Last week saw the release of the Federal Budget, the Defence component of which has not received a lot of media attention, probably because the Integrated Investment Plan was released a fortnight earlier. But there were some gems, such as the data that the spend for acquiring nuclear-powered submarines will total $13.6 billion over the next four years. That’s before a single submarine is delivered. It is likely to include a gift of about $8 billion to US and UK industries. There’s also the curious case of SEA 3000, the General Purpose Frigate project, which isn’t even mentioned. Speaking of which, the concept of Minimum Viable Capability and taking something “as is” from a parent shipyard looks flakier by the second. A few words about the conviction of whistleblower David McBride. The sentence looks harsh and will deter other whistleblowers – and Australia’s oppressive secrecy laws need to change.
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We start with a retrospective chat about the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear disaster in the USSR and the corrosive effects of secrecy and cover ups.
Australia is thankfully not like the Soviet Union – far from it – but the government management of information about Defence and national security is becoming increasingly paranoid, self-destructive and harmful.
It is now routine for all media requests to be totally ignored by the Department and for Ministers to propagate an entirely false picture of the status of the ADF – and in particular ignore the consequences of trying to acquire nuclear-powered submarines.
This goes right to the top – including Ministers and senior military figures – who rather than provide useful information rely instead on cheap appeals to patriotism. This is irrational and harmful.
Thankfully there are some positive examples from the U.S. about how the dissemination of information could, and should, occur.
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An industry source has described the General Purpose Frigate project as a “goat rodeo”, but before we get to that a few words about the cancellation of SEA 1905. This was the latest RAN effort to improve mine warfare capabilities – and after 5 years of effort on the part of three bidders has been abruptly cancelled. No reason has been given but it looks to be because Australia will soon transfer $4.7 billion to profitable US submarine construction companies. However, mine warfare is a vital capability, particularly if you hope to operate nuclear-powered submarines. A few words about the IIP – and the big takeaway is that funding is only available for the new submarines and general purpose frigates. This means Navy will receive 38% of the acquisition budget – more than Army, RAAF and Cyber combined. Finally the Luerssen corvette offer – and someone has to find out why it was apparently ignored by the Independent Review into the surface fleet. It’s the only way of rapidly delivering capability with all ships constructed at Henderson with an existing Australian supply chain giving 80% local content.
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First some good news – an extra $100 million of military aid for Ukraine. It’s not enough and Australia could be doing a lot more, but at least it’s a move in the right direction. Next – the unfolding disaster of the General Purpose Frigate project. Some acquisitions are doomed from the very beginning and this is one of them. Firstly, the highly paid independent reviewers of the RAN future surface fleet couldn’t even get it right about how many designs from Korea are available. Secondly, the Minimum Viable Capability philosophy might force the RAN to buy ships that are incompatible with every other class because there will not be enough time to include CEA radars and the Saab 9LV combat management system. Also we make another unsuccessful attempt to shed light on how the impending $4.7 billion transfer to US submarine manufacturers was calculated. Does no one care? It’s wrecking the Australian Defence budget.
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The National Defence Strategy and Integrated Investment Plan have been released, but in the short term this does nothing for Australia’s military capabilities – the serious funding increase is later in the decade. It also ignores the effect of inflation. The accompanying speech of Defence Minister Richard Marles at the National Press Club revealed a hilarious level of stupidity within the Defence establishment. The apparent logic of reducing the number of planned Infantry Fighting Vehicles from 450 to 129 is that our two Canberra class LHDs can only carry about 50 IFVs at a time – so why do we need more than that? Amazingly, this completely ignores the fact that ships can return to port and load more IFVs. It also ignores the fact that they can be transported by RAAF’s highly capable C-17 fleet. Then we have a look at nuclear-powered submarine funding – and of the approved $13 billion, one third of that is handed out to highly profitable US companies and the rest goes on digging holes and pouring concrete. There’s zero added value. Finally, some good news for Ukraine – but not from Australia.
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