Episodi
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Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, says that "the U.S. economy seems to be in pretty good shape," noting that there's a healthy amount of momentum — built on the strength of the labor market — that is creating solid underpinnings to will keep the economy and the stock market in a good place at least through 2025. Luschini thinks that earnings expectations — which he sees as a key for stocks continuing to post gains — are reasonable right now, though he does expect the market will be more volatile around news events, especially as it relates to earnings. Mark Hamrick, Washington bureau chief for Bankrate.com, looks at their latest "emergency savings report," which showed that just 41 percent of Americans would use their savings to pay for a major unexpected expense, like a $1,000 car repair or medical emergency treatment. In the Market Call, Ken Applegate, portfolio manager for the Wasatch International Growth and International Select funds, talks global small-cap investing.
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Steven Dover, chief market strategist for Franklin Templeton — the head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute — called the DeepSeek news that roiled the market over the weekend and into Monday "a Sputnik moment," comparing it to when the Russians stepped up the space race and the rest of the world responded. "If it's true that something is coming out that is much cheaper and easier for companies to use, that is going to incease the efficiency and productivity of the economy and help the broad market significantly," Dover said. He noted that the weekend's news — and the start of the new Trump Administration — have not shaken his outlook for 2025, when he sees low double-digit gains, a broadening of the stocks that are working and heightened volatility, but no recession. Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, talks about how he believes that liquidity concerns are being overlooked by investors now, but they have him fully short the market. He notes that "event risk" tends to be heightened when liquidity is impaired, which could add to market volatility now; he pointed out that the DeepSeek news highlighted market overconfidence because investors were unprepared for weekend event risk. In the Market Call, Max Wasserman, co-founder and senior portfolio manager at Miramar Capital, talks about building a portfolio around dividend payers, with a mix of high- and low-growth companies.
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Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, says that investors are nervous and have plenty of worries, but that there is a disconnect between those negative thoughts and what's actually going wrong because conditions continue to look good and be mostly unaffected by the worst things investors are scared of. That's a big reason why McMillan is optimistic now, noting as well that "The worse the rest of the world looks, the better we look because there's nowhere else to be;" while he expects heightened volatility, he also expects stocks to deliver low double-digit gains again this year. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, puts the entire utility sector in the Danger Zone, noting that the vast majority of companies in the sector are unattractive or worse. Ted Rossman discusses a Bankrate.com study showing that nearly one in four rewards cardholders left free money on the table last year. Plus Jon Wolfenbarger, founder and chief executive officer at BullAndBearProfits.com, brings his stock and ETF strategies to the Market Call.
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Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says that investors love a good story, but they tend to put too much stock in them and right now they are looking at a lot of things that either "can't" happen or "must" happen after two big-gain years for the market and they're making misguided decisions. He notes that the economy is likely to continue to avoid recession, especially as the 2020s will be looked back on as a period that pushed technology forward and created productivity and other gains that helped a mature economy keep growing. Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist for The Technical Traders, discusses why short-term concerns have him on the sidelines right now -- even with the market potentially set to gain another 5 to 8 percent before he expects a downturn -- and what he will need to see to feel comfortable moving back into the market. In The NAVigator segment, Miguel Laranjeiro, investment director for municipal debt at Abrdn, says the appetite for muni-bond assets has been growing at a point when "tax-exempt yields look really attractive."
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Jennifer Martin, vice president of global equities for T. Rowe Price, says that artificial intelligence is creating "contestable markets," which means that "Every company has to keep spending." That creates an economic imperative -- regardless of economic and market conditions -- that should help the stock market power through adjustments to the new administration's policies and concerning economic conditions. Martin discusses T. Rowe's 2025 Outlook, and how it has changed in the two months since it was issued, but she noted that the U.S. economy is set for another year of growth, and that value plays and small-cap stocks could be strong for international markets. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to a long-term dividend payers for both income and growth in his ETF of the Week, and Ken Mahoney, chief executive officer at Mahoney Asset Management, brings his "GPS method" for picking stocks and ETFs to the Market Call, looking to ride companies and sectors where the players are beating estimates and raising their earnings guidance.
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Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, says that the stock market will need earnings growth to generate returns in 2025, but that those gains should run roughly equal to the level of earnings growth, leaving the market set up for low double-digit gains in 2025. He says that technology continues to provide a tailwind to the market, though henotes that the artificial intelligence evolution makes for a moving target where investors might want to gravitate towards industries that are adjacent to AI, making money off of the companies and sectors that use AI to drive profit gains. Ladner — whose firm practices goals-based planning — noted that while the U.S. economy remains the world's strongest, it would be a mistake to ignore international markets now. Leigh Purvis, prescription drug policy principal at the AARP Public Policy Institute discusses her research into showing that prices on brand-name drugs have been rising much faster than the rate of general inflation for decades, creating challenges — particularly for Medicare Part D enrollees — that many people have addressed by not refilling prescriptions or by skipping doses to make prescriptions last longer. Plus Dan Crowley, partner at Nightview Capital — portfolio manager of the Nightview Fund — brings his concentrated growth approach to the Market Call.
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Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates says that "the elephant in the room" for the economy is the growing federal debt, now up to $36 trillion, which puts the Federal Reserve "in a pickle," because the debt will continue exploding if interest rates don't fall, but inflation could get out of control if the central bank cuts rates too fast. Doty sees an economy that will struggle to overcome that pressure, consumers that are reaching the limits on their spending and more, yet he doesn't foresee a recession this year just a slowdown that likely won't last long because he foresees the economy reaccelerating before year's end. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs celebrates Monday's holiday — which delayed his weekly appearance on the show — by discussing an undervalued, dividend-paying steel company stock as he turns his weekly Danger Zone into "The Attractive Zone," and financial psychotherapist Vicky Reynal discusses her new book, “Money on Your Mind” The Unconscious Beliefs That Sabotage Your Financial Well-Being – and How to Break Free.”
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Daniel McCormack, head of research for Macquarie Asset Management, says that heightened volatility in 2025 should make investors want to stay nimble and flexible, but he expects reasonable growth and a healthy environment. Sharing his outlook for 2025, McCormack says he expects China to begin "exporting inflation again," which could the U.S. back above a 3 percent inflation rate, which might slow down the pace of rate cuts, but it won't throw the economy into a recession. Larry Holzenthaler, portfolio manager for First Eagle Alternative Credit, gave his outlook for credit markets in 2025, noting that after avoiding default troubles when rates were rising, the picture is better now, particularly in private credit. Jennifer White discusses a J.D. Power study showing that consumers don’t think their bank will help them out in an emergency, and how banks might be more helpful than customers expect, and Chuck answers a listener question about sequence-of-return risk.
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Bob Elliott, chief investment officer for the Unlimited Funds, says investors entered 2025 with "euphoric expectations," but at a time when the market was going through a tightening, which is a set-up for the market to be flat or down for a few months. He says investors should curb their enthusiasm if they expect the market to perform as well as it has in the last two years, though he makes it clear that there are still good times to be had, just at the levels of 2023 and '24. Author Paul Podolsky discusses “The Uncomfortable Truth About Money," which is his latest book, focused on "living with uncertainty and [thinking] for yourself." Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to the banking sector for his ETF of the Week.
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Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for the Carson Group, says growing earnings and profit margins are creating a dual tailwind for the stock market, and while he cites plenty of reasons for concern — including the potential for a double-digit market decline in the first half of 2025 — he's "not scared that the bull market is over." In both his 2025 outlook — released Tuesday — and in today's Big Interview, Detrick called for double-digit market gains, inflation that comes under control and allows the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later in the year, and a change in market leadership that has him leaning into rebalancing and diversifying portfolios, with particular attention paid to financial, cyclical and industrial companies. Chip Lupo discusses a WalletHub survey which showed that more than 1 in 10 Americans blew up their credit card debt over the holiday season, and that more people are carrying debt without any plan on how to pay it off. In the Market Call, it's discount shopping in the closed-end fund aisle with Eric Boughton, chief analyst for Matisse Captial and manager of the Matisse Discounted Closed-End Fund Strategy fund.
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Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy for Global X ETFs says "Investors had better be ready for some chop" in 2024, but he thinks fundamentals are good and expanding and the market will broaden so that the economy and market pick up in areas that have not done well of late. Those conditions may create a volatile market but should help fight off a slowing pace of interest rate cuts. Helfstein sees several themes leading the way, most notably artificial intelligence — both the providers and the AI infrastructure — but also power companies, and then infrastructure investing. His take on infrastructure — particularly in the power business — aligns with that of Rob Thummel, portfolio manager of the Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Corp. (TYG) Fund, who lays out his case for the sector in the Market Call. Plus, Willie Delwiche of Hi Mount Research makes a technical case for the market to take a breather before it can get re-achieve record highs, and Chuck Bell of Consumer Reports discusses a recent federal proposal to ban the inclusion of medical debt on credit reports.
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Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Investments, says that when there is a lot of uncertainty and geopolitical risk, the United States economy and markets benefit from the situation, even if the unrest is partially caused by the U.S. As a result, while many observers worry about what might change under the new Trump Administration, Mullarkey expects economic stability, noting that "given all the headwinds we all can think of, [the U.S.) is better fortified than any other economy right now to sustain continuous growth this year. ... The rest of the world is more at risk." David Trainer, founder and president of New Constructs, revisits Sweetgreen, which he put into the Danger Zone in 2021 and subsequently named a "zombie stock," which has bounced back significantly this year, setting it up for another fall. Plus, John Dorfman, chairman of Dorfman Value Investments brings his classic value style to the Market Call.
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Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., says that while the stock market has done well at the index level — where a few big names carried the benchmarks to big years — the fuller story has been told at a lower level, where the market has had more struggles and there have been rolling recessions in various areas of the economy without triggering a full-blown, broad-based downturn. She says those conditions will persist for at least the first half of 2025, with the market continuing to roll on if earnings remain strong; to that end, she noted that the market's current expectations — calling for 14 percent earnings growth — seem high, which should make investors cautious at least until they see forward-looking estimates. Mark Gatto, co-founder and co-chief executive officer at CION Investment Group, says that global infrastructure spending estimated at as much as $3 trillion annually worldwide is creating an asset class that can overcome political challenges and that has significant earning potential, which is why his firm recently announced plans for the new CION Grosvenor Infrastructure Fund. And in the Market Call, Jason Browne, president of Alexis Investment Partners and the Alexis Practical Tactical fund talks about ETF investing.
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Rob Arnott, chairman and founder of Research Affiliates, says that current markets resemble the dot-com markets in the narrative that everything is about to change due to technological advancements, but he notes that the dominant tech players from the year 2000 failed to beat the Standard & Poor's 500 index over the long-term future. He says that could happen again today with the artificial intelligence stocks, with the technology changing the world but the stocks having a less clear path forward. Arnott notes that the narratives have made the mega caps overvalued and the comparison to the dot-com era could continue with a market downturn, but he sees plenty of opportunities for investors who are willing to pursue deep value and small-cap strategies, as well as liquid alternatives and non-U.S. stocks to "have a decent shot at high single-digit returns" this year. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes the exchange-traded version of a classic Fidelity fund his ETF of the Week, and Rob Lutts, president and chief investment officer at Cabot Wealth Management brings his classic growth investing style to the Market Call.
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Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, foresees some slowdown in consumer activity this year — with middle-income consumers beginning to struggle — and he says that will lead to a sluggish economy with higher unemployment. He expects inflation to remain sticky, which will push the Federal Reserve to make fewer rate cuts — he says it's possible they make no rate reductions this year at all — though he does believe the economy can stave off a recession. He reviews his 10 forecasts for the year ahead in The Big Interview. But he's not the only guest gazing into the crystal ball for 2025, as Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, talks about what to expect from interest rates on everything from mortgages to savings accounts over the next 12 months. And in the Market Call, David Allen of the Octane All-Cap Value Energy ETF talks about finding under-the-radar issues in the energy sector.
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Kristy Akullian, head of iShares Investment Strategy for the Americas at BlackRock, says that "the most important thing we're watching is earnings" as an indicator for the year ahead, noting that in 2024 more of the performance came from earnings growth than from multiple expansion, particularly for the parts of the market like large-cap growth companies that had a banner year. While the stock market is still looking for interest rate cuts, Akullian says that earnings can overcome any disappointment that is likely as the Federal Reserve slows the pace of rate cuts. For the year ahead — and iShares released its outlook for 2025 today — she is expecting modest gains, no recession, and continued struggles for international markets and small-cap stocks. Kim Blanton, who writes the Squared Away blog for the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, discusses research which shows that delaying Social Security pays off for couples, but particularly for high-income families who get the best possible outcomes by being patient and who — because of their income — can afford to wait to achieve that outcome. Plus, Chuck answers questions about Morningstar and VettaFi and mutual fund research and ratings.
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Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, says that 2025 is likely to see the leaders from the last few years move sideways while the rest of the market "can get some more traction and play a little catch-up." He notes that if the market broadens out and those other companies see earnings growth, it can keep the bull market rolling and offset a slowdown in rate cuts from the Federal Reserve as the central bank responds to sticky inflation by slowing its pace of rate reductions. Scott Krase, wealth manager at Connor & Gallagher OneSource, makes his debut in the Market Call, talking about ETFs and how they particularly provide access to alternative asset classes in ways that ordinary investors can benefit from in current conditions. Chuck also reviews what he has long called his "change experiment," where he saves all of his cash below $10 bills, and how much that added up to not just in 2024 but since he started doing it in 2020.
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Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, says that 2024 proved most pundits wrong, as they forecast years that were much more modest than the 25 percent that the stock market gained, with more economic struggles and more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. His forecasts, however, proved mostly right, as he reviews 2024 in today's Big Interview. Speaking of a review of the year just finished, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — looks back at the prognostications for the closed-end fund industry that he made a year ago and how the data now shows nearly all of them to have been correct. And as for prognostications, Adam Peck, co-founder of Riverwater Partners, makes a big one in the Market Call when he says that the cycles that have favored large-caps over small stocks are now long in the tooth, which is why he is expecting small-caps to outperform over the next 15 years.
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Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, says 2025 will finish up a positive year, but it will likely be a year of single-digit gains that will be a struggle to achieve because the market is starting the year with stretched valuations and other headwinds. While he doesn't see a recession in the offing, Stovall sees other conditions making the market sluggish, ranging from the presidential cycle to the regular run of a bull market and more. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, reviews the big stories in the exchange-traded fund business from 2024 and how some of those issues will keep playing out for ETFs and investors in the new year. Plus, in the Market Call, Jeff Auxier of the Auxier Focus Fund discusses business-centric, long-term investing.
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Jim Lee, founder at StratFi, says investors can be "reasonably optimistic" about the first half of 2025, but says that by the time June rolls around "I'd start to get careful." Among the technical indicators Lee leans on is the "Kitchin Cycle," which runs 180 weeks (or three and a half years) and has a solid record over the last century, and the cycle is showing a market peak at the start of March in 2025. Less says the market has the momentum to keep rolling, but not too far past that peak in the Kitchin Cycle. Also on the show, Dana Miranda of the Healthy Rich newsletter discusses her new book, “You Don’t Need a Budget: Stop Worrying About Debt, Spend Without Shame and Manage Money with Ease,” Rita Assaf discusses the annual Financial Resolutions Study out from Fidelity, which showed a strong desire for "a year of living practically" in 2025, and Chuck discusses ways to measure the success of 2024, and how it fits into the big picture of both the market and of our personal lives.
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