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Over a four-day period Japan is suspected to have carried out two interventions to support the yen at an estimated cost of $59 billion dollars.
David C Barnett Small Business and Deal Making M&A SMB
The first intervention came after the yen fell below 160 to the dollar for the first time in 34 years. The second intervention came a few days later after Jerome Powell announced that a rate hike was unlikely to be the Fed’s next interest-rate move.
The simplest explanation for the declining yen is that it is entirely driven by Japanese interest rates being low relative to other developed markets. People take their money out of the yen which is yielding 0 and put it in dollar denominated bonds to earn 5% - leading to a decline in the yen, but my friend Manoj Pradhan at Talking Heads Macro argues that this is a lazy oversimplification and that the Yen and Japanese markets are possibly the most interesting story in macroeconomics today.
Manoj Pradhan on Twitter: https://x.com/ManojPradhanTHM
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Patrick Boyle on YouTube
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Europe’s largest oil and gas company Shell was accused in an investigative report from Greenpeace Canada of selling millions of carbon credits tied to CO2 removal that never took place.
David C Barnett Small Business and Deal Making M&A SMB
Let’s look at what Shell did, how carbon offsets work, and how environmentally beneficial they actually are.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Patrick Boyle on YouTube
I discuss buying, selling, financing and managing small and medium sized businesses...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
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The Société Générale Delta One Desk is back in the news after two traders were dismissed - accused of placing unauthorized risky options trades.
Kavish Kataria – one of the traders in question - attacked the banks leadership with a LinkedIn post on Thursday saying the “entire risk team and other bosses” were equally responsible for the trades and complaining that his bonus had been withheld.
The Delta One desk that Kataria worked on is the same trading desk where rogue SocGen trader Jérôme Kerviel caused a $5.2 billion dollar loss in a 2008 scandal that caused the US Federal Reserve to cut rates to stabilize markets.
SocGen told Bloomberg News earlier this week that two people based in Hong Kong had left last year — a trader and a team leader — after a “one-off trading incident, which didn’t generate any profit impact and led to appropriate mending measures”.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
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Lina Khan's Federal Trade Commission is suing to block Tapestry's $8.5 billion acquisition of Capri Holdings, saying the deal would harm consumers by reducing competition and raising prices in the affordable luxury handbag sector.
Monday's lawsuit challenges the proposed deal that would have Tapestry controlling Coach, Kate Spade, Stuart Weitzman, Michael Kors, Versace and Jimmy Choo.
According to the FTC, the acquisition could have a negative impact on the millions of American shoppers who now benefit from the head-to-head rivalry between Tapestry and Capri, as well as on the roughly 33,000 workers employed by both companies worldwide.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Check out Eight Sleep and unlock $200 off using my link: https://www.eightsleep.com/boyle/
David C Barnett Small Business and Deal Making M&A SMB
British stocks closed at an all-time high this week, but as exciting as a new all-time high might sound, the British stock market has been lagging US and European stocks since the Brexit referendum.
A recent report from Goldman Sachs says that the British economy is 5% smaller than it would have been had it remained in Europe.
The IMF last week listed the UK in its Fiscal Monitor publication as one of four large economies that “critically need to take policy action to address fundamental imbalances between spending and revenues”.
In this week's video we ask what has gone wrong in the UK, and can it all be pinned on Brexit?
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Patrick Boyle on YouTube
Papers Mentioned In The Video:
Dimson Marsh & Staunton Global Investment Returns Yearbook: https://www.ubs.com/global/en/investment-bank/in-focus/2024/global-investment-returns-yearbook.html
Broadberry & Irwin - Labor productivity In Britain & America During The 19th Century: https://www.nber.org/papers/w10364
Schroders - Six Charts on UK Equities: https://www.schroders.com/en-gb/uk/intermediary/insights/six-charts-that-show-just-how-cheap-uk-equities-are/
Rathbones - The Non Patriotic Case For UK Equities: https://www.rathbones.com/knowledge-and-insight/investment-update-non-patriotic-case-uk-equities
Meghan Greene - Markets must stop comparing the UK and the US: https://www.ft.com/content/13579c61-5e1f-48b5-bb4d-2dc787444fb3
Robert Armstrong - UK stocks are not all that cheap: https://www.ft.com/content/80d7f1de-dcb7-46c9-be5a-32b73c9c071e
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Saudi Arabia’s plan to build a 170km long, 500m tall, mirrored city in the desert, filled with 9 million people has been curtailed to 2.4km long.
David C Barnett Small Business and Deal Making M&A SMB
According to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia’s government had “scaled back its medium-term ambitions” for Neom, of which The Line is the most significant sub-project.
The Saudi government had hoped to have 9M residents living in The Line by 2030, but this has been scaled back to fewer than 300,000, according to the report.
The curtailment of plans comes as Saudi Arabia has not yet approved the 2024 budget for Neom, according to Bloomberg.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Patrick Boyle on YouTube
I discuss buying, selling, financing and managing small and medium sized businesses...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
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Sales growth of electric vehicles has slowed dramatically this year. Tesla delivered 20% fewer cars in the first quarter of 2024 than in the prior quarter, and BYD who was previously the world’s biggest EV maker saw sales decline more than 40% over the same period.
David C Barnett Small Business and Deal Making M&A SMB
BYD’s EV sales were still up 13% when compared to the same quarter a year earlier, while Tesla’s sales were down 9%. Both companies have been slashing prices to stimulate demand.
While EV sales overall are still rising, they are rising at a slower rate than before. On top of that, the space has become more competitive as legacy automakers have introduced new EVs, and Chinese manufacturers have ramped up exports, overtaking Japan as the world's biggest vehicle exporter last year.
Apple, who spent a decade and ten billion dollars on research, decided in February to end their efforts to build an electric car. The Apple car would have likely cost over $100 thousand dollars and would have had lower profit margins than their core consumer electronics business. Apple’s stock price rose on the announcement that they were abandoning their EV project.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Patrick Boyle on YouTube
Videos Mentioned:
James May: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vQY-VeA87cM&t=307s
Harry's Garage: https://youtu.be/nZysvgm2_Aw?si=AzvFLM2Ta56HgRxl
I discuss buying, selling, financing and managing small and medium sized businesses...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
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Japan’s central bank raised interest rates last week for the first time in seventeen years, ending the world’s only remaining negative interest rate regime. The Bank of Japan also abandoned its yield curve control policy which has been in place since 2016, which saw it buying Japanese government bonds to keep longer term interest rates from rising. It has however maintained bond buying at the same pace for now.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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After a decade of decline, bankruptcy filings around the world are on the rise. In the United States, business bankruptcy filings rose more than 40 percent last year and non-business bankruptcy filings rose 16 percent.
Bankruptcies in England and Wales just hit a 30-year high according to the latest figures.
In Japan, corporate bankruptcies involving a total liability of 10 million Yen or more increased year on year by more than 35 percent.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Book Link:
Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy by Joseph Schumpeter: https://amzn.to/3IxYsc9
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Elon Musk filed a lawsuit last week against OpenAI and its CEO Sam Altman, alleging the company’s deal with Microsoft compromised the start-up’s original mission. Musk is seeking disgorgement, additional unspecified damages and specific performance.
Let’s go through these claims one by one, see what legal experts have been saying about the case. We will also discuss the Open AI memo saying that the claims in this lawsuit suit stem from Elon’s regrets about not being involved with the company today and the emails OpenAI released showing that Musk initially supported the plan to create a for-profit entity and wanted a merger that would make Tesla its "cash cow."
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Patrick Boyle on YouTube
Papers Mentioned:
Copy of the Legal Complaint: https://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rYCUmwA4Xxpw/v0
Ann Lipton Blog: https://lawprofessors.typepad.com/business_law/2024/03/spins-roulette-wheel-moelis-and-openai.html
Jeremy Tilman Blog: https://lawprofessors.typepad.com/contractsprof_blog/2024/03/musk-v-altman-the-breach-of-contract-claims.html
Matt Levine Article: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-01/openai-isn-t-open-enough-for-elon
Nilay Patel Article: https://www.theverge.com/2024/3/1/24087937/elon-musk-suing-openai-nightmare-1l-contracts-examSupport the Show.
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Office mortgage default rates are rising around the world which could mean problems for the banks, insurance companies and pension funds who lent money to real estate investors.
Let’s discuss the distressed sales of office buildings that have been happening over the last few months, why New York Community Bancorp is down more that 65% year to date, what banking regulators are saying about loan portfolios at large US banks and how banks are hedging their loan books.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
Patrick Boyle on YouTube
Papers Mentioned:
Monetary Tightening, Commercial Real Estate Distress, and US Bank Fragility: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4413799
The Secular Decline of Bank Balance Sheet Lending: https://www.nber.org/papers/w32176Support the Show.
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A new Harvard Business School study analyzed the impact of giving AI tools, to white collar workers at Boston Consulting Group.
David C Barnett Small Business and Deal Making M&A SMB
In the study, management consultants who were told to use Chat GPT when carrying out a set of consulting tasks were far more productive than their colleagues who were not given access the tool. Not only did AI-assisted consultants carry out tasks 25 per cent faster and complete 12 per cent more tasks overall, but their work was also assessed to be 40 per cent higher in quality than their unassisted peers.
In today's video we look at the pros and cons of using AI at work.
This Week's Sponsor:
Get Magical AI for free and save 7 hours every week: https://getmagical.com/patrick
Papers Mentioned:
Harvard Paper: https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/24-013_d9b45b68-9e74-42d6-a1c6-c72fb70c7282.pdf
Nicholas Carlini Blog: https://nicholas.carlini.com/writing/2024/my-benchmark-for-large-language-models.html
Nicholas Carlini Quiz: https://nicholas.carlini.com/writing/llm-forecast/
Effects of AI on Employment Paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4527336
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
I discuss buying, selling, financing and managing small and medium sized businesses...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
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As the global fight over manufacturing share and exports heats up, with surplus economies doubling down on exports, and deficit economies discussing protectionist strategies, the policies of the largest global economies are in clear conflict. Are trade wars likely, how do they work, and can the global economy regain balance?
David C Barnett Small Business and Deal Making M&A SMB
Michael Pettis Books:
The Great Rebalancing: https://amzn.to/4bDIGKf
Trade Wars Are Class Wars: https://amzn.to/3I2xHMH
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
I discuss buying, selling, financing and managing small and medium sized businesses...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
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Adam Neumann has been trying to buy WeWork - the company he cofounded out of bankruptcy — allegedly with the help of the hedge fund manager Dan Loeb of Third Point.
Neumann’s new real estate company "Flow" has sent a letter to WeWork requesting that they consider its takeover approach. Flow has already raised $350 million from the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, disclosed in the letter that Loeb’s Third Point would help finance a transaction.
The Financial Times contacted Third Point to verify their involvement in the deal and were told that the fund had only held “preliminary conversations with Flow and Adam Neumann about his ideas for WeWork.” They went on to say that they have made “no commitment to participate in any transaction.”
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
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A Delaware court this week voided Elon Musk’s $55.8 billion dollar pay deal with Tesla. The voiding of these stock options erases about a quarter of Musk’s current wealth.
David C Barnett Small Business and Deal Making M&A SMB
The judgement came in response to a shareholder lawsuit launched by Richard Tornetta who owned nine shares in the company. Judge Kathaleen McCormick found Tesla directors, who negotiated the pay package, were "perhaps starry eyed" due to Musk's "superstar appeal" and did not adequately inform shareholders.
Elon Musk announced after the judgement that he would seek to reincorporate Tesla in Texas, a state that he believes could be more hospitable to his way of doing business than Delaware. We’ll dig into whether that would work near the end of the video.
Roger Lowenstein - Origins of the Crash: https://amzn.to/3Ou3OIQ
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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Jesse Lauriston Livermore was a famed American stock trader known for his huge successes and devastating failures in the early 20th century. Starting as a "chalkboard boy" in a Boston brokerage, he became hugely wealthy as a trader first in "bucket shops" and then on the exchange in New York. Livermore made millions in the Panic of 1907, the roaring 20's and in the 1929 market crash. His experiences are chronicled in the classic "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefèvre.
Despite his legendary wins, Livermore went bankrupt numerous times and faced personal challenges, culminating in his tragic suicide in 1940. His legacy endures as an influential figure in financial history.
Books:
Jesse Livermore – The Man Who Sold America Short by Tom Rubython: https://amzn.to/3vWOrCA
Jesse Livermore – Worlds Greatest Stock Trader by Richard Smitten: https://amzn.to/47QO3Tm
Jesse Livermore – Speculator King by Paul Sarnoff: https://amzn.to/47R9jIv
Reminiscences of a Stock Operator by Edwin Lefèvre: https://amzn.to/496874U
How to Trade in Stocks by Jesse Livermore: https://amzn.to/4baKom1
Online Sources
New York Times Time Machine: https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/browser
Time Magazine Archives: https://content.time.com/time/subscriber/article/0,33009,847596-2,00.html
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Livermore
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
David C Barnett Small Business and Deal Making M&A SMB
I discuss buying, selling, financing and managing small and medium sized businesses...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
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Big startups are shutting down. More than 3000 private venture backed startups failed in the last year. Of the startups raising money, 19% were funded at a lower valuation than in prior funding rounds. 38% of VCs disappeared from dealmaking last year and more than a quarter of a million workers at tech companies lost their jobs over the same period. US corporate bankruptcy filings closed out 2023 with the most filings since 2010. The year has been described as a mass extinction event for startups in the press.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
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How much do you need to earn per year to be in the top 1%? The answer to this question varies depending on if you are asking about the 1% in a given country or globally?
David C Barnett Small Business and Deal Making M&A SMB
In today's podcast we discuss how much you have to earn and how wealthy you have to be to be considered in the top one percent. We discuss the careers and lifestyles of the one percent. We look at inequality research to understand if inequality is actually growing as much as researchers like Thomas Piketty say it is.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
I discuss buying, selling, financing and managing small and medium sized businesses...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
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How is China able to sell European drivers so many cheap cars? Customs data shows that Chinese EV shipments to the European Union have increased by 361% since 2021.
David C Barnett Small Business and Deal Making M&A SMB
All over the world, Chinese automakers are taking market share which is threatening European automakers.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
I discuss buying, selling, financing and managing small and medium sized businesses...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
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Dozy Mmobuosi, the founder and CEO of Tingo Mobile has been accused by US Regulators of running a "staggering fraud."
David C Barnett Small Business and Deal Making M&A SMB
Tingo Mobile claimed to provide mobile phones to rural farmers in Nigeria and build a fintech super app. It quickly grew into a multibillion-dollar empire with a listing on New York’s Nasdaq stock exchange.
Dr Dozy, the London-based tycoon attempted to buy the Premier League football team Sheffield United but struggled to prove his financial resources.
It turns out that Mmobuosi’s businesses, as they were commonly understood, may never have existed.
The SEC has accused the Nigerian businessman Mmobuosi Odogwu Banye – of perpetrating an ongoing fraud of “staggering” proportions.
Patrick's Books:
Statistics For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3eerLA0
Derivatives For The Trading Floor: https://amzn.to/3cjsyPF
Corporate Finance: https://amzn.to/3fn3rvC
Patreon Page: https://www.patreon.com/PatrickBoyleOnFinance
Buy Me a Coffee: https://buymeacoffee.com/patrickboyle
Visit our website: www.onfinance.org
Follow Patrick on Twitter Here: https://twitter.com/PatrickEBoyle
I discuss buying, selling, financing and managing small and medium sized businesses...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify
Support the Show.
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