Episodi
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In a recent episode of my podcast series of “The Ancient Art of Modern Warfare” (E104) I described possibilities for an end to the fighting in Ukraine. Of course, any end to any armed conflict requires the agreement of both (or all) parties to the conflict. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is no different. It is entirely possible, perhaps likely, that one party does not want an end to the fighting. The other party, on the other hand, is not willing to accept peace, or even an armistice that rewards an invasion of their nation. I do not have any answers. This short episode is an addendum to Episode 104 in which I bring up some issues I think we should consider before any armistice or peace proposal is rejected.
As usual, the opinions in these podcasts are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinion of the Department of Defense, anyone else in the U.S. Government, or any other organization I am or ever have been associated with.
Music: Wagner, R. and US Marine Corps Band, Siegfried’s Funeral March and Finale (Götterdammerung) from “Music of Richard Wagner” (1981) (Public Domain)
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Last week, I attended the annual “Summit” meeting of the International Stability Operations Association, or #ISOA. This association includes 200 private corporations that support U.S. and friendly government engagement across the spectrum of stability, conflict, and post conflict operations. Presentations included speakers from the US Departments of Defense, State, Justice, Commerce, and USAID. Other speakers included representatives of the Ukrainian government, experts in cyber technology and artificial intelligence, and speakers representing companies currently providing private sector support in hostile environments, such as #Ukraine. The subject material was fascinating for what was said, and sometimes what was not said. A continuous stream of thought was why we were there. Why was it that these government agencies use private sector support in armed conflict, post-conflict, and disaster relief. That is the subject of this episode of the Ancient Art of Modern Warfare.
Disclaimer: The information in these podcasts is my own opinion and does not represent that of the Department of Defense, ISOA, or any other organization I am or have been affiliated with.
Reference: Kramer, F., The sixth domain: The role of the private sector in warfare, Atlantic Council (October 2024); https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/the-sixth-domain-the-role-of-the-private-sector-in-warfare/
Music:
Holst, G, The Planets, Mars Bringer of War Internet Archives, https://archive.org/details/GustavHolstThePlanetsMarsTheBringerOfWar_201709Traditional, The Army Strings, Garryowen (Public Domain)Kiilstofte, J., The Cavalry, Machinimasound (Licensed) -
Episodi mancanti?
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Is a negotiated peace possible, or even desirable between Russia and Ukraine? How can this be done without validating Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and encouragement of future aggression? These are critical questions to address as the incoming U.S. administration states that negotiating an end to that war and our involvement in it as one of its first priorities.
As usual, the opinions in these podcasts are my own and do not necessarily represent the opinion of the Department of Defense, anyone else in the U.S. Government, or any other organization I am or ever have been associated with. (Although, if the Advanced Warfighting Working Group was still in existence, I would probably have convinced the members to endorse this.)
PS: Apologies for the sound of my voice as I am recovering from something or other.
Music:
Copland, A. & United States Marine Band. (2000) Fanfare for the Common Man, unpublished, Washington, DC. [Audio] Retrieved from the Library of Congress, (Fair use for educational purposes.)The Army Strings, GarryOwen (Traditional) (Public Domain)Kiilstofte, P., Freedom Fighters, Machinimasound (Licensed) -
We often hear that this or that military attack caused disproportionate civilian casualties. Most often, these accusations are directed against Israel, when they are not directed against the United States. I will be generous and presume that most of these accusations are based on a misconception of what proportionality in armed conflict means, and how it is different from proportionate use of force civil or human rights law circumstances. Proportionality in war is the subject of this episode of the Ancient Art of Modern Warfare.
Reference:
Although a main reference for almost all episodes is On War, by Carl von Clausewitz, a primary reference for this episode is Chapter 5.12 of the Department of Defense Law of War Manual, 2016 edition.Music:
Holst, G. The Planets: Mars Bringer of War, downloaded from Internet ArchiveKilstoffe, Jens, The Cavalry, Machinamasound (Licensed) -
What is the common theme to mercenaries, natural resources, hypersonic missiles, Gaza, and exploding pagers? I can think of several, but in a recent conversation with a colleague of mine, that common thread was challenges to the Law of War, or International Humanitarian Law. Can the notion of the law of war even survive in modern manifestations of armed conflict? I think it can, and it is just as important, if not more so, than in the mythical era of conventional war.
As usual, the views in these podcasts are my own and do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of Defense, any other organization, or any person I am or ever have been associated with.
Music:
Liszt, Les Preludes, the USMC Band. (Public Domain)GarryOwen (Traditional), the Army Strings (Public Domain) -
The fighting in the Kursk Oblast is still ongoing, and it would be much to soon to derive any lessons to be learned from this event. This episode picks up from the previous episode, examining how this campaign might offer examples of concepts presented in previous podcasts of the Ancient Art of Modern Warfare. Ukraine continues maneuver warfare at the tactical level, although as of this writing, nothing approaching the level of decisive action. Russia continues its World War I style offensive in the east, while the south has some interesting long-range strikes. The contrast between attrition warfare in the east and maneuver warfare in the north, combined with drones, deep fires, and partisan activity in Russian occupied areas all indicate that no prior form of warfare is obsolescent and all can exist simultaneously with modern techno-warfare.
Reference: (As always) Clausewitz, C, On War, Edited and Translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret ©1984
Music:
Holst, G., The Planets: Mars, Bringer of War (Internet Archives)The Army Strings, GarryOwen (Traditional) (Public Domain)Kilstoffe, P., Freedom Fighters from Machinimasound -
The war in Ukraine has taken a very interesting, and I think, exciting turn of events. The advent of combined arms maneuver warfare reminiscent of armored offensives in that region eight decades ago. It is impossible to conduct an in-depth analysis at this time. There is too much going on and we really know little about order of battle or Ukrainian objectives. StilI, I felt the need to talk about this ongoing battle for a several reasons. Most important of these is that it is an example of the type of maneuver warfare that is possible and should be a feature of this war.
Reference: (As always) Clausewitz, C, On War, Edited and Translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret ©1984
Music:
Holst, G., The Planets: Mars, Bringer of War (Internet Archives)Kiilstofte, J., The Cavalry, Machinimasound (Licensed) -
Clausewitz’s descriptions of friction, taken with the often antagonistic interplay among his trinity of passion, policy, and probability, keep war in theory separate from war in practice. How does this look in real war? In this episode, I make my best guess about how friction and chaotic trinity might affect Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.
If you missed the previous two episodes, I recommend that you take the time to do so before listening to this one.
E97: Friction in Warhttps://admin5.podbean.com/mayhemxpc/episodes/form/00XlnMhGdsld
E98: The Paradoxical Trinity of War (and Peace)https://admin5.podbean.com/mayhemxpc/episodes/form/zpdgaRh85TV2
Reference:
Clausewitz, C. On War, Book One, Chapter One(Note that I do not cite a specific publication of On War. I use different translations and the original German. Find a version that work best for you.)
Music:
Liszt, F. Totentanz; Nebolsin, Eldar(piano), Royal Liverpool Philharmonic Orchestra (Orchestra), Petrenko, Vasily (Conductor) https://www.naxos.com/CatalogueDetail/?id=8.570517 (Chosen because I was looking for chaotic music.)The Army Strings, GarryOwen (Traditional) (Public Domain) -
Clausewitz wrote that there are three forces at work when a nation goes to war: “unbridled passion,” reason, and the play of chance and probability. Things only work well when each of these is held in equilibrium by the other two. The people, the government, and the military represent these forces and the government should, in theory, maintain that equilibrium. In practice, this never happens. Instead, the interplay among these is random and seemingly chaotic. Each aspect of the nation and the force it represents, must deal with friction within their group and friction from and within the other groups. The pendulum that swings among these power centers is also influenced by external forces including, but certainly not limited to, the enemy. This, with the friction described in the previous episode, adds to the apparent irrationality of war and generates diversions along the path to peace.
Reference:
Clausewitz, C. On War, Book One, Chapter One(Note that I do not cite a specific publication of On War. I use different translations and the original German. Find a version that work best for you.)
Randomly Oscillating Magnetic Pendulum (from the clausewitz.com website.): https://www.clausewitz.com/MP4/romp2.mp4Music: (Chosen because I was looking for chaotic music.)
Liszt, F. Totentanz; Nebolsin, Eldar (piano), Royal Liverpool Philharmonic Orchestra (Orchestra), Petrenko, Vasily (Conductor) https://www.naxos.com/CatalogueDetail/?id=8.570517 -
War is really very simple, but Clausewitz cautioned that by saying that in war, even the simplest thing is difficult, sometime insurmountable. This idea, which he called “Friction” he maintained was the one thing that made war in theory different from war in practice. The elements that create friction in war also apply to the effort to move from war to peace; and the primary source of friction? Human nature.
Music:
Wagner, R. and the USMC Band, Siegfried’s Funeral (Public Domain)
The Army Strings, GarryOwen (Traditional) (Public Domain)
Kilstoff, Jan, The Cavalry (Licensed)
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If the only acceptable outcome of war is a peace, and the only sustainable peace is a just peace, then it is essential to answer the question, “what is peace?” This is a simple question, but without a simple answer. It has been debated from Plato up until the present day. This lack of definition may be one reason why the transition from war to peace is so difficult.
Music:
Holst, G: The Planets, Mars, the Bringer of War (Internet Archive: https://archive.org/details/GustavHolstThePlanetsMarsTheBringerOfWar_201709)Traditional, The Army Strings, Garryowen (Public Domain)Wagner, R. and USMC Band, Siegfried’s Funeral March, Public Domain.Disclaimer: The information in these podcasts is my own analysis and opinion and does not represent the views of the Department of Defense or any organization I am or have been affiliated with.
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The subject of Just War, or Justum Bellum, is a frequent topic in these podcasts. If, however, the only acceptable justification for any war is to establish a more just and lasting peace, shouldn’t there be a similar framework for Just Peace, or Justum Pacem? Just War theory goes back to Plato and Aristotle, but Just Peace thinking is a product of the last century. Despite a lack of concrete formulation, past examples of successful post-conflict transitions included efforts to establish a just peace. Sadly, there are more examples of unjust peace, which -- as Immanuel Kant noted -- plants the seeds of future war.
Music:
Liszt, Les Preludes, perfomed by the USMC Band. Public DomainTraditional, The Army Strings, Garryowen (Public Domain)Mozart, W. A. and Karajan, K., The Requiem Mass In D Minor, Introitus, K.626, (1941), downloaded from The Internet Archive https://archive.org/details/12-bruno-kittel-mozart-requiem-agnus-dei-polydor-1941_202308Photo:
Perpetual Peace Lily, Aganpanthus Africanus (Wikimedia Commons)
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In Chapter 17 of the Prince, Nicolo Machiavelli wrote that a prince ought to desire to be thought of as clement and not cruel. It is more important, he said, to generate a respectful fear which, in then end, is actually more merciful than those who pursue reputations of mercy. Under no circumstances, however, should the prince become hated. This concept also applies to war, moving from war to peace, and the justice sustained peace requires.
Music:
Traditional, The Army Strings, Garryowen (Public Domain)Copland, A. & United States Marine Band. (2000) Fanfare for the Common Man. unpublished, Washington, DC. [Audio] Retrieved from the Library of Congress, (Fair use for educational purposes.)Verdelot, P. and Machiavelli, N. O Dolce Nocte (1547) downloaded from ChoralWiki/CPDL -
Just as it takes two parties to agree to fight a war, it takes both parties to agree to peace. Getting both warring parties to agree to peace sometimes requires a third party. This third party provides “good offices” to help both sides agree on what peace should look like. It also helps when each party understands the political objectives of the others – and the “disinterested” third party has its political objectives, too!
Music:
Wagner, R. and USMC Band, Siegfried Funeral and Goetterdammurung (Public Domain)Traditional, The Army Strings, Garryowen (Public Domain)Copland, A. & United States Marine Band. (2000) Fanfare for the Common Man. unpublished, Washington, DC. [Audio] Retrieved from the Library of Congress, (Fair use for educational purposes.)Image: Bakhmut, Ukraine; Ukrainian Army Photo
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Ending a war begins when one side or the other believes that the cost of continuing to fight exceeds any expectations of success. This could be a simple cost benefit calculation, it could be that continuing to fight after a major defeat is unlikely to bring success, or that the war aims have already been achieved and any further violence is unjustified. In each case, one side or another has to make the decision to seek peace, or at least to end the fighting. That decision, however necessary, is only one step on the difficult path to bring peace out of war (and it isn’t even the first step.)
Music:
The United States Army Old Guard Fife and Drum Corps, Soldiers Farewell Fanfare/Montezuma/March of War/Windsor Park, (Public Domain)Traditional, The Army Strings, Garryowen (Public Domain)Image: Bakhmut, Ukraine; Ukrainian Army Photo
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My podcasts on The Ancient Art of Modern Warfare presented the elements of war that I think every citizen should know in holding our elected representatives responsible for decisions about going to and prosecuting war. The time has come in this series to move from war to peace. The most important consideration in going to and in prosecuting war is that it is the only way to correct a grave injustice and bring about a more just and lasting peace. Correcting this grave injustice must outweigh the death and destruction unavoidable in any war. Defending against the unjust attack of an aggressor and repelling the attacker’s forces from the territory captured in that attack is, perhaps the only clear justification, although there is debate about the use of military force to stop grave violations of international law, and particularly those which could be considered crimes against humanity. Again, this must be done with the clear end state in view of restoring peace. Once the iron dice of war are rolled, however, Clausewitz’s trinity of passion, reason, and chance can lead us to places we did not intend to go. These closing episodes of the Ancient Art of Modern Warfare we explore the transition from the violence of war to that more just peace.
Music:
Copland, A. & United States Marine Band. (2000) Fanfare for the Common Man. unpublished, Washington, DC. [Audio] Retrieved from the Library of Congress, (Fair use for educational purposes.)
Traditional, The Army Strings, Garryowen (Public Domain)
Lennon, J, (1969) performed by COL C Mayer, USA RET; Maj. D. Mayer, CAP; 2d Lt M. Mayer, USAF; and PFC C. Mayer, USA (2024) Give Peace a Chance (Fair use for educational purposes.)
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“The past is a foreign country; they do things differently there.” So begins L.P. Hartley’s book, The Go-Between. Although the way people do things changes over time, what they do remains largely the same. War and politics are human endeavors, and human nature is unchanging. It should be no surprise, therefore, that the nature of war and politics is also unchanging. That is the point of these podcasts. The first objective history of war, the war between Athens and Sparta in the 5th century BC was chronicled by the Greek general Thucydides. Although the way the armies and navies fought then are much different than today, the overall campaigns and reasons for those campaign are strikingly similar to modern strategy. Thucydides’ observations provide lessons for us, even today, if we are just willing to learn from them. This why his work is still studied in our war colleges.
Music:
Rodgers and R.R. Bennett, Fire on the Water/Victory at Sea Suite (Public Domain/Fair use for educational purposes)
Traditional, The Army Strings, Garryowen (Public Domain)
Copland, A. & United States Marine Band. (2000) Fanfare for the Common Man. unpublished, Washington, DC. [Audio] Retrieved from the Library of Congress, (Fair use for educational purposes.)
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“Sun Tzu said: The art of war is of vital importance to the State. It is a matter of life and death, a road either to safety or to ruin. Hence it is a subject of inquiry which can on no account be neglected.” My purpose in my podcasts of the Ancient Art of Modern Warfare. But who is Sun Tzu, and how is what he said relevant to modern warfare?
Music:
Holst, G., The Planets: Mars, Bringer of War (Internet Archives)Kiilstofte, J., The Cavalry, Machinamasound (Licensed) -
Who is this Clausewitz guy?
The Army War College studies many different theories and theorists of war, from Thucydides of ancient Athens, Sun Tzu of Wu Dynasty in China, to Machiavelli, Mitchell, and present day theorists. One name stands out among the others, the early 19th century enlightenment era military philosopher, the Prussian Major General and War College Director, Carl von Clausewitz. It is not just the US Army War College. Russian and Chinese military teaching also centers on his ideas. Why? Who was he and why do I cite him so often in my podcasts (and in conversation, my papers, etc.) Working within my self-imposed limit of eight minutes, I try to explain this as best I can.
These podcasts are not monetized or subsidized in any way. The opinions expressed in these podcasts are my own and do not necessarily reflect any organization I am or have ever been associated with – and fall far short of doing justice to Carl and Marie von Clausewitz.
Reference: Clausewitz, C, On War, Edited and Translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret ©1984
Music:
Piefke, J.G. Preussens Gloria, Internet Archive, https://archive.org/details/PreussensGloria_201708Traditional, The Army Strings, Garryowen (Public Domain) -
There are more than 110 armed conflicts in the world today.[1] Ending any one of them requires more than a simple cease fire, it requires knowing what each side intends to achieve by the conflict. This is even true when the participants may not fully understand the end state they are seeking. This includes the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Without addressing those desired end states any ceasefire merely gives time for the warring parties to refit for the next battles. Whenever our country starts on the path to armed conflict, the citizens must demand that our government know and tell us, “How does this end?”
These podcasts are not monetized or subsidized in any way, nor do they represent anyone’s opinion but my own.
Music:
Holst, G., The Planets: Mars, Bringer of War (Internet Archives)Traditional, The Army Strings, Garryowen (Public Domain)Kiilstofte, J., The Cavalry, Machinamasound (Licensed) - Mostra di più
