Episodi
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In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, Jack and Matt dive into some of the most controversial takes we've heard on Excess Returns in 2024. From Aswath Damodaran's spicy thoughts on the Berkshire annual meeting (spoiler: he's not a fan) to Cem Karsan's mind-bending perspective on options being the "dog" rather than the "tail," we're breaking down six of the hottest takes from 2024. We explore everything from Meb Faber challenging the sacred cow of dividend investing to groundbreaking research suggesting that maybe we don't need intuitive explanations for what works in the market. Plus, we bring in a special guest to help us mere mortals understand the complex world of options.As two self-proclaimed "non-controversial" guys, we try to find the nuance in these polarizing perspectives. Whether you're a quant, a value investor, or just someone interested in different ways of thinking about markets, there's something here for everyone. And yes, we even manage to work in references to everything from Little Rascals to My Fair Lady (Matt's brain works in mysterious ways).Join us for an episode that proves even "wildly controversial" Jack Forehand can stir things up once in a while! 😉
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In this episode, we look at the biggest lessons we have learned from Cullen Roche, one of our most frequent and insightful guests.We cover:"All Duration Investing" - Cullen's framework for matching investments to specific time horizonsThe Fed as Chuck Norris - Why the threat of Fed action can be more powerful than the action itselfQE vs Fiscal Stimulus - Understanding why QE wasn't inflationary, but COVID stimulus wasInternational Diversification - Making the case for looking beyond U.S. marketsThe Financial System's Plumbing - Breaking down complex topics like Fed operations and bank failuresAutomated Fed Policy - Could we remove human judgment from monetary policy?Saving vs Investing - A fresh perspective on building wealth through human capitalMulti-generational Planning - How having kids changes your investment timelineWhether you're an investor building a portfolio or someone wanting to understand how the financial system actually works, this conversation delivers clear insights from one of finance's most practical thinkers.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
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Episodi mancanti?
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In this episode, we sit down for a deep dive into lessons from value investor Tobias Carlisle, exploring several key insights from our conversations with him over the years. In this Halloween-themed episode (complete with plenty of Reese's cups), we break down Toby's perspectives on what makes an ideal business, the critical importance of survival in investing, portfolio concentration vs diversification, and whether today's tech giants can maintain their dominance.We cover how See's Candy exemplifies the theoretical perfect business model, why survival should be every investor's first priority, and the delicate balance between running concentrated portfolios that maximize returns versus diversified ones that investors can actually stick with through tough times. We also dig into the age-old debate of pure value versus quality value investing, with Toby sharing his data-driven insights on which approach truly works best.We also explore the importance of writing down your investment thesis at the time you make it. As Toby explains, this simple practice helps prevent revisionist history and allows you to learn from both your successes and mistakes.Throughout the episode, we weave in our own experiences and perspectives while maintaining the conversational, occasionally sugar-fueled style our listeners have come to expect. Whether you're a value investor, a financial planner, or just someone interested in improving your investment process, there are valuable takeaways here for everyone.Join us for this candid discussion about what really matters in investing, sprinkled with just the right amount of Halloween candy references and questionable lighting setups.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
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FOLLOW JACK
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In this episode, we dive into our conversations with Meb Faber, analyzing some of his most interesting takes on investing and wealth management. We explore several clips from our interviews where Meb shares perspectives that often challenge conventional wisdom, including his thoughts on dividend investing, trend following, and the Federal Reserve.We discuss:- The limitations of dividend-focused investing strategies- Asset allocation insights from the Talmud- A different perspective on the Fed's recent performance- Meb's view on wealth as a means to freedom- The case for significant trend following allocation in portfolios- The question Meb would ask Jack Bogle about market valuations
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.com
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FOLLOW JACK
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In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we dive deep into the insights we've gained from our conversations with investing legend Rob Arnott. We explore Rob's unique perspectives on identifying market bubbles, the challenges facing value investors in today's market, and how the rise of passive investing is reshaping market dynamics.We break down Rob's thoughts on the power of narratives in investing, challenge common assumptions about interest rates and value/growth performance, and discuss the potential impact of AI on the financial industry. Throughout the episode, we share our own experiences and interpretations, making these complex topics accessible and relevant for investors at all levels.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
https://www.valideacapital.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS
https://sunpointeinvestments.com/
FOLLOW JACK
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In this episode, we dive deep into the world of trend following with legendary trader Jerry Parker. We explore key insights from our previous interviews with Jerry on Excess Returns, discussing his experiences as one of the original Turtle Traders and how his approach has evolved over time.We cover several important topics, including:- The challenges of sticking to a trading system, even when you're trained to follow it.- Jerry's goals for his portfolio and how they've shifted from growth to preservation as he's become successful.- The unique return profile of trend following strategies and why they can be difficult for investors to stick with.- How Jerry has adapted his strategy over time, moving from shorter-term to longer-term trend following.- The importance of allowing winning positions to run and Jerry's unconventional approach to position sizing.- The difficulties in evaluating a trading system and the dangers of making changes based on individual trades.- Jerry's thoughts on retirement and why he plans to continue trading for as long as possible.Throughout the episode, we relate Jerry's experiences to our own work in investing and financial planning. We discuss the parallels between trend following and other investment strategies, highlighting the universal challenges of sticking to a system and evolving it appropriately over time.We also explore broader themes like the nature of retirement in today's world and how to think about saving and investing for the future. This conversation with Jerry Parker offers valuable insights for traders, investors, and anyone interested in the psychology of successful long-term investing.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
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FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS
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FOLLOW JACK
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In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we dig into the biggest lessons we learned from investing legend Guy Spier. Drawing from our extensive interview with Guy, we explore key insights that can benefit investors at all levels.We discuss:- The importance of learning from mistakes early in your career- Aligning your inner and outer self for authenticity and success- The power of learning in public and putting yourself out there- Defining and expanding your circle of competence- Understanding ergodicity and its implications for investing- The critical importance of having the right investors on board- Being kind to yourself as an investorThroughout the episode, we share personal anecdotes, debate ideas, and break down complex concepts into actionable insights. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just starting out, this discussion offers valuable perspectives on improving your investment approach and mindset.
We hope you enjoy the discussion.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
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FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS
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FOLLOW JACK
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In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we dive deep into the investing wisdom of Chris Davis, exploring eight valuable lessons from our interview with this renowned investor. We break down Chris's insights on behavioral finance, the power of inversion in decision-making, the challenges of holding winning positions, and the pitfalls of blindly imitating successful strategies.We discuss Chris's unique perspective on sector concentration and risk, his thoughts on the longevity of today's tech giants, and the importance of viewing stocks as businesses rather than just trading vehicles. We also explore Chris's experiences as a board member and what makes an effective corporate board.
We hope you enjoy the discussion.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
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FOLLOW JACK
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In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we dive deep into the investing wisdom of Michael Mauboussin, one of the most respected thinkers in finance. We revisit our interview with Michael and distill 10 key lessons that are still incredibly relevant for investors today.We explore crucial concepts like:The difference between investing and speculatingUnderstanding expectations investingWhy fundamentals still matter, even in today's marketThe paradox of skill in investingHow to properly use multiples in valuationThe challenges of active management in an increasingly passive worldThe usefulness (and limitations) of market forecastsThe importance of base rates in decision making
We hope you enjoy the discussion.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
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FOLLOW JACK
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In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we dive deep into the world of quality and low volatility factors in investing. We explore how these factors work, their academic foundations, and their practical applications in portfolio construction.We discuss the definitions of quality and low volatility, examining how they're measured and why they can be valuable additions to investment strategies. We also look at the behavioral aspects that make these factors effective, particularly in helping investors stick to their long-term plans.Using real-world examples, we analyze several ETFs that employ quality and low volatility strategies, demonstrating how to use tools like Validea to understand what's really going on under the hood of these funds. We examine sector exposures, factor tilts, and how these ETFs might fit into broader portfolio strategies.
We hope you enjoy the discussion.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
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FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS
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FOLLOW JACK
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In this episode, we dive into key lessons from our recent Excess Returns interview with valuation expert Aswath Damodaran. We unpack Damodaran's insights on:Why dogma in investing can be dangerousThe evolving landscape of active vs passive investingChallenges facing factor investingThe critical role of storytelling in valuationHow AI and 'personal bots' might reshape investing careersFocusing on wealth preservation and growth over get-rich-quick schemesWe offer our own perspectives on Damodaran's thought-provoking ideas and discuss how they apply to today's investing environment. Whether you're a professional or individual investor, our discussion provides valuable food for thought on the future of valuation, investing strategies, and financial markets.
We hope you enjoy the discussion.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
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FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS
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FOLLOW JACK
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In this episode, we tackle a question that is on many investor's minds: Is value investing dead? We explore various arguments for and against value investing's continued relevance in today's market.We discuss:The impact of low interest rates and Fed policy on value investingWhether too many investors have adopted value strategiesHow narrative-driven markets affect value investingThe challenges value faces in a tech-dominated marketThe role of big data and its effect on traditional value metricsWhether value investing is betting against technological progressWe aim to provide a balanced view, acknowledging the arguments on both sides. While we don't come to a definitive conclusion, we offer insights on how investors might think about value in their portfolios going forward.
We hope you enjoy the discussion.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
https://www.valideacapital.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS
https://sunpointeinvestments.com/
FOLLOW JACK
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We ask all our guests on Excess Returns one closing question: If you could teach one lesson to the average investor, what would it be? In this episode of Two Quants and a Financial Planner, we compile and discuss the most impactful answers we have received to it. We break down valuable insights on investing and financial planning from experts like Michael Mauboussin, Rick Ferri, Bob Elliott, Andy Constan, Ben Inker, Meb Faber, and more.We cover a range of crucial topics, including:Michael Mauboussin: The importance of using base rates in decision makingRick Ferri: Why simpler investment strategies often work bestBob Elliott: How true diversification goes beyond just stocks and bondsAndy Constan: Why most investors don't actually have an edgeBen Inker: Understand who's on the other side of your trades and why they should give you a returnEhren Stanhope: The importance of position sizing and risk managementAdam Butler: The future may be very different than the past Meb Faber: The benefits of being a long-term "Rip Van Winkle" investorBen Carlson and Michael Batnick: Why there's no single perfect portfolio for everyoneChris Davis: Remembering that stocks represent ownership in real businessesMike Green and Danial Crosby: Keeping investing in perspective with what truly matters in lifeWhether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, this episode distills years of wisdom into actionable lessons to improve your financial decision making. We hope you enjoy this highlight reel of some of our favorite guest insights!
We hope you enjoy the discussion.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
https://www.valideacapital.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS
https://sunpointeinvestments.com/
FOLLOW JACK
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In this episode, we explore common misconceptions about factor investing. We discuss why factors aren't less risky than the market, the challenges of diversification, and why adding more factors isn't always beneficial. We emphasize the importance of long-term perspectives when evaluating factor performance and the need for strategies to evolve with changing markets. We also touch on the emotional aspects of factor investing, the differences between academic studies and real-world implementation, and emerging ideas about factor design.
We hope you enjoy the discussion.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
https://www.valideacapital.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS
https://sunpointeinvestments.com/
FOLLOW JACK
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In this episode, we dive into recent market volatility and its implications for investors. We examine several intriguing charts highlighting unusual market behavior, including significant VIX spikes and their historical context. We discuss the importance of understanding market mechanics while maintaining a long-term perspective. Throughout our conversation, we emphasize key lessons for navigating turbulent markets: the value of education over ignorance, the danger of making impulsive changes, and the importance of aligning investment strategies with personal convictions. We explore how fundamentals continue to drive long-term market performance and why maintaining conviction in your investment approach is crucial during volatile periods. Finally, we stress the importance of understanding the potential downsides of your investment strategy and how they relate to your current life stage, reminding listeners that while market behavior may seem chaotic in the short term, a well-thought-out, long-term approach remains the best path to financial success.
We hope you enjoy the discussion.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
https://www.valideacapital.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS
https://sunpointeinvestments.com/
FOLLOW JACK
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In this episode, we dive into lessons long-term investors can learn from our interview with Jack Schwager, author of the Market Wizards series. Drawing on Schwager's insights, we explore ten key takeaways that can benefit long-term investors, including why trading is not for everyone, the importance of learning from failure, and how to pivot strategies when markets change. We discuss Schwager's observations on risk management, the challenges of systematic trading, and the psychological aspects of investing. Throughout the episode, we relate these lessons to our own experiences as investors and financial advisors, offering practical tips for applying this wisdom to your own investment approach.
We hope you enjoy the discussion.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
https://www.valideacapital.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS
https://sunpointeinvestments.com/
FOLLOW JACK
Twitter: https://twitter.com/practicalquant
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-forehand-8015094
FOLLOW JUSTIN
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In this episode, we dive deep into momentum investing, bringing you insights from some of the smartest investors we know. We explore the fundamentals of momentum, breaking down its types and examining the academic research that supports its effectiveness. We discuss why momentum works, looking at behavioral explanations and comparing it to other investment factors. We also share ways to enhance momentum strategies, such as focusing on consistency and combining it with other factors like value and low volatility. Throughout the episode, we play clips from our interviews with experts like Sheridan Titman, Jack Vogel, Harin de Silva, Andy Berkin, Pim van Vliet and Wes Gray, providing you with insights on this powerful but often misunderstood investment strategy. We also address the potential downsides of momentum investing and the challenges of factor timing.
We hope you enjoy the discussion.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
https://www.valideacapital.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS
https://sunpointeinvestments.com/
FOLLOW JACK
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In this episode, we dive deep into practical alternatives to the traditional 60/40 portfolio. We explore various approaches like the Permanent Portfolio, risk parity and return stacking and take a detailed look at how we build alternative portfolios for our clients. We also examine Nomadic Samuel's innovative work on building diversified portfolios using new ETF products. Throughout our conversation, we emphasize the importance of having a systematic process, understanding the risks and potential behavioral challenges, and considering factors like taxes and market regimes. While acknowledging that the 60/40 portfolio isn't "dead," we highlight how these alternative approaches can potentially improve risk-adjusted returns and provide better protection in different economic environments.
We hope you enjoy the discussion.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
https://www.valideacapital.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS
https://sunpointeinvestments.com/
FOLLOW JACK
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In this episode, we dive into the key takeaways from our recent interview with Mike Green of Simplify. We explore several important lessons, including the need to be open-minded about new ideas in investing, the potential unintended consequences of passive investing, and the importance of looking beyond market aggregates. We discuss how these concepts apply to the average investor and what they mean in practical terms for portfolio management. We also touch on the double-edged nature of innovative investment products and caution against making hasty investment decisions based on election outcomes. Throughout the conversation, we emphasize the importance of understanding the "why" behind market movements and considering the practical implications of complex market dynamics for individual investors.
We hope you enjoy the discussion.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
https://www.valideacapital.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS
https://sunpointeinvestments.com/
FOLLOW JACK
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In this episode, we take a look back at the first half of 2024 and examine some surprising trends in the economy and markets. We discuss how inflation has remained stickier than many expected, but wage growth has actually outpaced inflation for many workers. We analyze the extreme concentration of returns in the stock market, with a small number of large tech companies driving most of the gains while many stocks have declined. We also explore some unexpected developments in housing, bonds, and factor investing performance. Overall, we aim to provide context on what's really happening beneath the surface of headline numbers, challenge some common narratives, and remind listeners of the importance of long-term thinking when it comes to investing and financial planning.
We hope you enjoy the discussion.
SEE LATEST EPISODES
https://excessreturnspod.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT VALIDEA CAPITAL
https://www.valideacapital.com
FIND OUT MORE ABOUT SUNPOINTE INVESTMENTS
https://sunpointeinvestments.com/
FOLLOW JACK
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