Episodi
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Large Voter Turnout
Voter Turnout Appears Steady; Enthusiasm Running High (Gallup)
Who Will Win?
Who Do Voters Think Will Win (Navigator)
Cookie Poll
Three Brothers Bakery Presidential Cookie Poll Has Accurately Predicted Winner of Last 3 Elections (KHOU)
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Trump Job Approval
Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
General Election
Presidential General Election (RealClear Politics)
Coronavirus
Coronavirus Upends Nation, as Three in Four Americans' Lives Changed by Pandemic (ABC News/Ipsos)
Governors Get High Marks For Handling COVID-19 Crisis (Monmouth)
Tracking Public Opinion on the Coronavirus (Morning Consult)
Public Opinion on Coronavirus (Navigator)
Axios-Ipsos Coronavirus Index: Everything's Worse (Axios/Ipsos)
If you are interested in learning about starting your own podcast, or you have a podcast and want to improve production, distribution, or marketing, contact Richard Fawal at Junto Media, https://juntomedia.co.
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Episodi mancanti?
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Florida Democratic Primary
Who Different Groups Supported (New York Times)
National Democratic Primary
National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Trump Job Approval
Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
General Election
General Election (RealClear Politics)
Coronavirus
Trump Earns Mixed Grades on Coronavirus Response (Politico/Morning Consult)
Coronavirus (NPR/PBS/Marist)
Coronavirus (Reutors/Ipsos)
Public Trusts Health Agencies More Than Trump (Axios)
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Democratic Primary
Florida Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Biden Crushes Sanders In Democratic Race (Quinnipiac)
Trump Job Approval
Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
General Election
General Election (RealClear Politics)
Approval of U.S. Congressional Republicans Tops Democrats (Gallup)
Coronavirus
Trump and the Coronavirus (CNN)
Americans Divided on Party Lines Over Risk From Coronavirus (Reuters/Ipsos)
Republicans are Twice as Likely as Democrats to View Coronavirus Coverage as Exaggerated (Axios/Survey Monkey)
About One-Fifth of Democrats and Republicans get Political News in a Kind of Media Bubble (Pew Research Center)
92% of Americans Dating as Normal Despite Coronavirus (OKcupid)
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Democratic Primary
National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Florida Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Michigan Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Trump Approval
Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
General Election
General Election (RealClear Politics)
Corona Beer and the Coronavirus
The Spread of the Coronavirus Couldn't Have Come at a Worse Time for Corona Beer(CNN)
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Democratic National Primary
Democratic National Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
South Carolina Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Debate Watchers Believe Bernie Sanders Made the Best Case for Defeating Trump (YouGov)
Trump Job Approval
Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
General Election
General Election (RealClear Politics)
Republicans Increasingly Feel Like Theyâre âWinningâ Politically; Democrats Feel the Opposite (Pew Research Center)
Cornoavirus
How do Attitudes to Coronavirus Differ Across the World? (YouGov)
High Confidence in Government to Handle Coronavirus (Gallup)
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Democratic National Primary
Democratic National Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Sanders Opens Up Double-Digit National Lead in Primary Race (NBC News/WSJ)
Sanders Leads The Field, Bloomberg Qualifies For His 1st Debate (NPR/PBS Newshour/Marist)
Nevada Primary
Nevada Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Sanders Has Strong Lead in Nevada(Data for Progress)
South Carolina Primary
South Carolina Democratic Primary(FiveThirtyEight)
Americans and the Election
Americans Generally Upbeat About Election Campaign (Gallup)
Faith in Elections in Relatively Short Supply in U.S. (Gallup)
Trump Job Approval
Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
National General Election
National General Election(RealClear Politics)
Bogus Respondents
Assessing the Risks to Online Polls From Bogus Respondents (Pew Research Center)
Chucking a Dead Chicken
Is Chucking a Dead Chicken a Fun Bar Event or Disrespectful to Animals? (Thorold News)
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Democratic Primary
National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Who's Ahead in New Hampshire (FiveThirtyEight)
Sanders Takes Top Spot In Dem Primary As Biden Falls (Quinnipac)
New Hampshire Democratic Primary Exit Poll Results and Analysis (Wash Post)
Trump Approval
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
General Election
Trump vs. Klobucha (RealClear Politics)
Most Expect Trump Will Be Reelected (Monmouth)
Socialism and Atheism Still U.S. Political Liabilities (Gallup)
Impeachment Vote
Most Utahns pleased with Mitt Romneyâs vote, but 60% of GOP has negative reaction (Deseret News/Hinckley Institute of Politics)
Valentineâs Day
Valentine's Day poll: American's claim this dinner idea is most underrated (Instacart)
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On this 5th Anniversary episode, Kristen and Margie are joined by founder of FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver. Nate founded Five Thirty Eight after being tired of the media covering politics with a lack of data.
Iowa Primary
The three cover the topic of Iowa and how the polls should be looked at along with the actual results in Iowa. Nate breaks down Iowaâs system of using preferences in voting in their primary process and discusses how that makes Iowa difficult to poll.
The Des Moines Register, Ann Selzer poll was not published due to an error in polling. However, it was ended up being leaked prior to the Iowa Caucus. Nate believes that human error is a part of anything in life, even polling. In the case of the Ann Selzer poll he believes that the errors in the poll could have been fixed and published at a later date, instead of the chaos that ensued with the errors in the poll due to a tight deadline that was set.
Models in Polling
A model is a statistical algorithm that produces results. In polling models are statistics that are used to represent the world. Nate discusses the difficulties behind trying to build a model for the entire Democratic Nomination process. He shares that FiveThirtyEight focuses on predicting the outcome and as a result they focus more on topline numbers.
The Silent Trump Vote
It has been claimed that silent Trump voters played a role in the 2016 election, Kristen asks Nate if silent or shy Trump voters could play a roll in the upcoming 2020 Presidential election.
Find Nate Silver on Twitter @NateSilver538
Listen to the FiveThirtyEight Podcast Here!
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National Democratic Primary
National Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
2020 Democratic Primary (Morning Consult)
Biden and Sanders are breaking away from the pack of candidates among Democrats nationwide (Washington Post/ABC News)
Electability in the Democratic Primary Polls (HuffPost/YouGov)
Iowa Primary
Iowa Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Sanders Seizes Lead in Volatile Iowa Race (New York Times/Siena College)
New Hampshire Primary
New Hampshire Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Sanders, Buttigieg top Democratic field in New Hampshire (NBC News/Marist)
California Primary
Bernie Sanders grabs lead in California presidential primary (UC Berkeley Institute)
Trump Job Approval
Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
Trump Impeachment
Americans still divided on Trumpâs removal from office (Wash Post/ABC News)
General Election: Trump vs Klobuchar (RealClear Politics)
Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)
Nearly 6 in 10 oppose Trumpâs use of executive privilege to muzzle witnesses (Politico)
Impeachment Witness Testimony (Quinnipiac)
Eating Meat
Nearly One in Four in U.S. Have Cut Back on Eating Meat (Gallup)
Four in 10 Americans Have Eaten Plant-Based Meats (Gallup)
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Democratic Primary
Who's Ahead in the National Poll? (FiveThirtyEight)
Who's Ahead in Iowa? (FiveThirtyEight)
Who's Ahead in New Hampshire? (FiveThirtyEight)
Sanders Widens Lead In N.H. (WBUR)
Trump Approval
Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
Trump Third Year Sets New Standard for Party Polarization (Gallup)
General Election
General Election: Trump vs. Klobuchar (RealClear Politics)
Trump Impeachment
Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)
Majority Support Allowing New Impeachment Evidence (Monmouth)
By a Narrow Margin, Americans Say Senate Trial Should Result in Trumpâs Removal (Pew Research Center)
Senator Approval Rankings (Morning Consult)
New Maine Polling on Susan Collins and Impeachment (GHY Research Group)
Abortion Laws
Do state laws on abortion reflect public opinion? (Pew Research Center)
Dissatisfaction With U.S. Abortion Laws at New High (Gallup)
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2020 Democratic Primary
Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Iowa Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Why Warren Needs To Play To Win â And That Includes Beating Sanders (FiveThirtyEight)
Who Won The January Democratic Debate? (FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos)
Biden holds wide lead among black voters in Democratic presidential race (Washington Post/Ipsos)
2020 General Election
National General Election (FiveThirtyEight)
Trump trails 2020 Democratic contenders in Michigan (EPIC-MRA of Lansing)
Trump Approval/Impeachment
Trump Job Approval (RealClearPolitics)
Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)
Issues That Matter to Voters
Several Issues Tie as Most Important in 2020 Election (Gallup)
Iran
Majority supports Trumpâs decision to not strike back against Iran (Politico/Morning Consult)
More Americans Disapprove Of Trump's Handling Of Iran Than Approve (NPR/Marist)
Majority of U.S. Public Says Trumpâs Approach on Iran Has Raised Chances of a Major Conflict (Pew Research Center)
The Oscars
Which Film Should Win Best Picture? (Hollywood Reporter)
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Party Preferences
U.S. Party Preferences Steady During Trump Era (Gallup)
Democratic Polling for Debate
DNC Tells Pollsters to Do More Polls (NewYorkTimes)
Democratic Primary
Sanders starts 2020 in strong position in Iowa and New Hampshire (CBS News)
Biden Is Democratsâ Best Bet to Beat Trump (Morning Consult)
Trump Job Approval/Impeachment
Trump Job Approval (Real Clear)
Do Americans Support Impeachment? (Real Clear)
A Majority Of Americans Think The Evidence Supports Trumpâs Removal (FiveThirtyEight)
Geoff Garin on Hart Poll(Hart Research/Law Works Poll)
Iran
Can You Locate Iran? Few Voters Can(Morning Consult)
What Americans Think About Trumpâs Iran Policy (Huff Post/YouGov)
Americans increasingly critical of Trump's record on Iran, most expect war (Reuters/Ipsos)
Celebrities and Politics
When Stars Like Taylor Swift Get Political, Do Voters Listen? (Hollywood Reporter/Morning Consult)
#MeToo/Timeâs Up
Americans Think #MeToo and Time's Up Are Making Progress (CBS)
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Polling Trends in Previous Elections
In Leaked Memo, Andrew Yang Asks DNC for More Debate Polls (DailyBeast)
2008 Iowa Republican Caucus (RealClear Politics)
2008 Iowa Democratic Caucus(RealClear Politics)
2012 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)
2016 Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus(RealClear Politics)
2016 Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)
2020 Presidential Election
Whoâs ahead in the national polls? (FiveThirtyEight)
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
Trump Impeachment
Do Americans Support Impeachment? (FiveThirtyEight)
Most Admired Man
Obama, Trump Tie as Most Admired Man in 2019 (Gallup)
Fun Charts of 2019
Our favorite Pew Research Center data visualizations of 2019 (Pew Research)
The 56 Best â And Weirdest â Charts We Made In 2019 (FiveThirtyEight)
What Black Americans Want
A Nuanced Picture of What Black Americans Want in 2020 (Third Way/JCPES)
New Year, New You
Top 10 New Yearâs Resolutions for 2020 (Polly/Advanced Symbolics Inc.)
Almost Half of People Stick to a New Yearâs Resolution (Ipsos)
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Democratic Primary
What Makes Our New 2020 Democratic Primary Polling Averages Different (FiveThirtyEight)
Democratic Primary (FiveThirtyEight)
Biden and Sanders holding steady (RealClear Politics)
Trump Approval/Impeachment
President Trump Job Approval (RealClear Politics)
Tracking âimpeach and removeâ (FiveThirtyEight)
Trump job approval ticks up, views on impeachment steady (Fox News)
Peace at Thanksgiving
Only About 3% Of Americans Actually Fought About Politics On Thanksgiving (HuffPost/YouGov)
Dumbest Takes on Polling
Why public opinion polls donât include the same number of Republicans and Democrats(PewResearch)
The Twilight of Landline Interviewing (PewResearch)
Year in Review
Bullock Misses First Debate (New York Times)
Republicans Generation Gap (New York Times)
Analytics Jumpstart (Echelon)
Holiday Shopping
2019 Winter Holiday Trends (NRF)
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Democratic Primary
Biden and Sanders holding steady (RealClear Politics)
Second Choice Candidates (Quinnipiac)
Trump Approval / Impeachment
Tracking âimpeach and removeâ (FiveThirtyEight)
Tracking Trump Approval (RealClearPolitics)
Who was the better President?
Democrats answer! (Monmouth)
Trust in the media
Republicans less likely to trust the news media (Pew Research)
UK Elections
Love, Actually?
Current predictions (YouGov)
Travel
What do people steal from hotels? (Wellness Heaven)
Unacceptable Airplane Behavior (YouGov)
Christmas Trees
Real versus Artificial (YouGov)
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2020 Presidental Election
Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)
The State of the Democratic Primary (Morning Consult)
The Economist/You Gov Poll
California Voters Wanted Kamala Harris to Drop Out of Presidential Race (Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies for The Times)
Impeachment
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)
UK Election
Europe Poll of Polls (Politico)
The key findings from our MRP (YouGov)
Poll Reveals Record-Breaking 30 Percent of Public Plan to Vote âtacticallyâ in General Election (ERS)
Giving Tuesday
Giving Tuesday poll: The causes Americans support (Axios)
âAll I Want For Christmasâ tops most annoying song poll, still tops Billboardâs Holiday 100 (Huawei)
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2020 Presidental Election
Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)
CBS News Battleground Tracker (CBS News)
Impeachment
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)
Impeachment Hearings (ABC/Ipsos)
Multi-Party Democracy
What if the U.S. Were a Multi-Party Democracy? (Echelon)
British Election
General Election 2019: The polling average might show a Labour surge, but the polls themselves don't (iPolitics)
Have you decided yet? Who will win the debate? (Lord Ashcroft)
Medicare For All
Blue Wall Voices Project (KFF/Cook)
Majority of likely Democratic caucusgoers shy away from 'Medicare for All' (Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll)
Thanksgiving
More than 165 million people expected to shop over five-day Thanksgiving weekend (NRF/Prosper Insights & Analytics)
Turkey Day Exposé: How Americans Really Feel About the Big Dinner (Instacart/Harris Poll)
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2020 Presidental Election
Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (RealClear Politics)
Poll: Bloomberg's Potential Run is a Flop With Voters so Far (Politico/Morning Consult)
Biden Holds Slight Lead In New Hampshire Dem Primary (Quinnipiac)
Impeachment
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)
Framing the Next Step on Impeachment (Navigator)
Immigration/Supreme Court
Immigration/Border Security (Monmouth)
Immigration (CNN/SSRS)
Poll Finds Confidence in U.S. Supreme Court Overall, Though More Pronounced Among Conservatives (Marquette)
Veterans
Go Beyond the âThank Youâ (Cohen Veterans Network)
The American Veteran Experience and the Post-9/11 Generation (Pew)
New Poll of U.S. Troops and Veterans Reveals Their Thoughts on Current Military Policies (Smithsonian/Stars & Stripes)
Anxiety Over the Holidays
The worst thing to talk about during the holidays is not politics (YouGov)
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2020 Presidential Election
Democratic Presidential Nomination (RealClear Politics)
General Election Matchups (RealClear Politics)
One Year From Election, Trump Trails Biden but Leads Warren in Battlegrounds (The New York Times Upshot/Siena College)
Poll: Biden Holds Significant Lead over Warren, Sanders in Nevada; Top Issue is Electing Someone Who Can Beat Trump (The Nevada Independent)
Kentucky Governor - Bevin vs. Beshear (RealClear Politics)
Trump Approval (RealClear Politics)
Impeachment
Do Americans Support Impeaching Trump? (FiveThirtyEight)
Partisan Opinion on Trump Digs in (Monmouth University Poll)
Trump Approval (Washington Post/ABC Poll)
Fish Pictures
Love at First Bite? (Fishbrain)
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