Episodi
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In this episode, Mark Rzepczynski joins Alan Dunne to explore narratives, rationality, and behavioral uncertainty, particularly in the context of trend following. They discuss recent market trends in the wake of the election, with a focus on bond market movements. Mark shares insights on the current stage of the risk cycle and whether we’re witnessing an excessive buildup of leverage in the financial system. The conversation also delves into two fascinating studies: one on the significance of having access to the news and accurate information in trading, and another on how equity analysts forecast earnings—both with implications for trend following strategies. Finally, they examine the narratives currently shaping markets and debate whether trend following can be considered a source of “unpredictable alpha.”
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:39 - What has been on our radar recently?
05:43 - Industry performance update
10:17 - New times for bonds
14:37 - The issue is always in the details
19:02 - What is driving markets at the moment?
22:36 - The perspective on treasuries is changing
26:34 - Trend followers are going crypto
29:22 - Does crypto make sense in trend following?
30:47 - Where are we in the risk cycle?
34:57 - How spikes in credit spreads have impacted leverage
38:16 - Does "perfect information" exist?
43:27 - A kind and a wicked...
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Today we share an engaging discussion with Carola Binder, who explores the intricate relationship between inflation and democracy in the United States. Binder argues that inflation has been a crucial part of economic debate since the nation’s founding, intertwined with the political landscape and the fate of democracy itself. She highlights the significant divergence in inflation expectations between Republicans and Democrats, particularly during the Biden presidency, where rising inflation expectations were predominantly driven by Republicans. The conversation delves into how historical perspectives on inflation have shifted, from concerns about devaluation and price stability to modern debates on monetary policy and the role of central banks. Binder also examines the implications of these dynamics for future inflation and the credibility of the Federal Reserve, providing insights that resonate with current economic challenges.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
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Episodi mancanti?
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Together with Alan Dunne, we delve into the shifting landscape of systematic investing, highlighting the growing use of quant based strategies as well as AI and machine learning in portfolio management. The discussion also emphasizes the significant impact of concentration within the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs now predicting that this could lead to lower returns for traditional equity investments in the coming decade. We explore various economic themes, and note the challenges facing Europe compared to the optimism in the US markets. We also reflect on the recent elections and their implications for future economic policies. The conversation wraps up with insights on trend following strategies and how they can enhance portfolio diversification, particularly in a climate of rising yields and market volatility.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:05 - What has caught our attention recently?
03:17 - Dark times ahead for Europe?
06:26 - An analysis of the election
11:46 - Niels' thoughts on the election outcome
14:58 - Alan's thoughts on the election outcome
18:11 - A global macro perspective
28:00 - Has the election outcome any effect on the US deficits?
31:39 - Industry performance update
37:19 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it might make sense to replace bonds with outcome-defined or buffered ETFs. Any thoughts?
37:33 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it...
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Stephen Miran, Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital and Fellow at the Manhattan Institute joins Alan Dunne in this episode to explore the bond market outlook and broader economic trends. They delve into an influential paper Steve co-authored with Nouriel Roubini on Activist Treasury Issuance, examining how Treasury actions may have countered some of the Fed's monetary tightening this year. Steve shares his insights on the economy's current state, his view that the Fed may have erred with its recent 50 basis point cut, and how the upcoming election could shape economic policy. While much focus has been on potential tariff impacts under a Trump administration, Steve highlights the possible benefits of supply-side measures. The conversation also covers the drivers behind the rise in bond yields since the Fed’s rate cut and the medium-term outlook for fiscal policy and bonds.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Stephen on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:25 - Introduction to Steve Miran
05:53 - Why did Miran write his paper on Activist Treasury Issuance?
10:24 - How Quantitative Easing and Exchange Traded Instruments work
15:26 - Treasury is not a market timer
17:39 - Getting lost in the Fed jargon
21:06 - What is driving the increasing yields?
24:38 - The refunding - Miran's expectations
27:26 - The state of the labour...
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In this week’s episode, Andrew Beer joins Alan Dunne to dive into the evolution of hedge funds, mutual funds, and ETFs within the managed futures space. Andrew give his perspective on the architecture of the CTA industry from the perspective of asset raising and the role that a diverse investor base plays in shaping product offerings within the sector. The conversation explores how liquid alternative investments compare with traditional hedge funds, examining what recent performance trends reveal about each. They also discuss the influence of narrative in CTA selection and analyse the resurgence of portable alpha and the growing interest in return stacking strategies, inspired by a recent Bloomberg article.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Andrew on Twitter.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:13 - What has caught our attention recently?
03:30 - Industry performance update
04:48 - Andrew's perspective on the last few months
11:11 - Insights from the Hedge Nordic Event
16:49 - Picking the right managers
19:57 - A Hunger Games mentality
26:53 - Different products for different market segments
33:31 - Are hedge funds better than mutual funds?
43:20 - What we know about the performance of ETFs vs mutual funds
46:33 - Will replicators become more prominent?
53:49 - Tell me what you...
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Jason Furman, Professor of Economics at Harvard and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Obama, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to share his thoughts on the current economic outlook. They explore the recent improvement in the inflation data, whether the Fed is justified in claiming victory in its inflation fight and the likely trajectory for inflation over the next year. On monetary policy, Jason expects further rate cuts from the Fed this year but is sceptical about how much additional easing we may see next year. That ‘s partially because he sees a higher neutral policy rate and partly because high fiscal deficits looks set to remain a feature of the next administration. Looking further ahead Jason offers his thoughts on the longer term growth outlook, the likelihood of an AI-led productivity boom, the pros and cons of active industrial policy and whether persistent fiscal deficits might eventually lead to a debt crisis.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Jason on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:10 - Introduction to Jason Furman
04:28 - The state of the economy
04:42 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?
06:01 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?
09:40 - The outlook for inflation
12:34 - A move in the right direction?
14:34 - Is the neutral rate a useful concept?
17:35 -
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Today, we delve into the nuances of systematic investing with Rob Carver, focusing on the concept of replication in trend-following strategies. The discussion contrasts different approaches to replication, highlighting the potential pitfalls of return-based methods that attempt to mimic established indices. We emphasize that simply increasing the number of markets in a portfolio may not lead to better diversification, as it could ultimately expose investors to similar risk factors. We also explore the implications of a recent paper from Newfound Research, which uses random data to challenge traditional views on replication effectiveness. With insights on factors influencing CTA performance and the importance of understanding true diversification, this conversation offers valuable perspectives for both investors and practitioners in the systematic trading space.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rob on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:57 - What has caught our attention recently?
05:55 - Should trend followers lower their horizon?
09:26 - The AI CTA's are being tracked
10:37 - An economic Kayfabe
13:58 - Are interest rates approaching a Minsky moment?
18:44 - Industry performance update
20:33 - Q1, CryptoCaptainX3: How do you manage intraday adverse price movement risk while running a daily system?
25:43 - Q1.1 CryptoCaptainX3: How to manage overnight gap risk for futures instruments which trade only 6 hours a day?
26:13 - Q1.2 CryptoCaptainX3: Can...
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In his first podcast episode ever, Bill Eckhardt emphasizes that successful trading hinges more on risk control than on predicting market movements, a theme that resonates throughout his conversation with Moritz Siebert and Rob Sorrentino. The episode explores Eckhardt's journey from the renowned Turtle trading experiment to his current systematic trading strategies at Eckhardt Trading Company. The conversation provides insights into the evolution of trading strategies, the importance of maintaining emotional discipline, and the necessity of adapting to changing market conditions. The discussion also delves into the challenges of overfitting in trading models and the significant role that robust statistical methods play in managing risk. With anecdotes about the unique characteristics of traders and the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio, this episode offers a fascinating look into the mind of a trading legend and the principles that guide his enduring success.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Learn more about Eckhardt Trading Company here.
Follow Moritz on Linkedin.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:30 - Introduction
03:59 - Eckhardt's relationship to Richard Dennis
06:34 - Can trading be taught?
08:50 - The story behind the trading rules
12:32 - What characterises Eckhardt Trading?
13:44 - How did their perception of risk change over the years?
22:01 - Why
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Join Katy and I as we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following in the context of changing interest rates. We cover how trend-following strategies can be a valuable addition to investment portfolios, especially in high-rate environments where traditional fixed income may offer diminished diversification benefits. Katy shares insights from her latest paper, which explores the performance of trend-following strategies during various economic crises, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in turbulent markets. The conversation also touches on the recent Nobel Prize buzz surrounding MIT and its implications for innovation in finance, as well as review the latest quarterly insights from Quantica. As we navigate through market trends, you are encouraged to consider how a well-allocated trend-following strategy can enhance portfolio resilience amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Katy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:06 - What has caught our attention recently?
04:01 - What is going on with Danske Commodities?
06:29 - Energy traders are the new star athletes
07:47 - Industry performance update
09:55 - How has 2024 treated us so far?
13:58 - The implications of major regime transitions
18:33 - What made Katy write her paper, "Trend Following in a Defensive Rotation"?
24:22 - How has fixed income behaved over a long period of time?
29:02 - How does trend following portfolios react to the correlation...
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Alan Dunne welcomes back Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal in this episode to delve into the Chinese economic outlook and discuss the broader macro trends. Louis shares his thoughts on whether the Chinese economy and Chinese asset markets are truly at a turning point. They examine the crisis of confidence among Chinese consumers and assess whether recent stimulus measures can help. China’s active industrial policy and desire to grow its share of global manufacturing has been a key policy pillar and Louis examines how sustainable the policy is. The conversation also covers US policy, the prospects for a recession, and how the upcoming US election—particularly a potential Trump victory—could be highly significant for US- China relations and impact bond markets and the US dollar. Louis also gives his take on the structural challenges facing France and Europe, and whether we can expect a recovery in productivity.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Louis on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:27 - Introduction to Louis Gave
03:50 - Is the Chinese economy experiencing a turning point?
09:20 - Can China restore their foreign capital flow?
13:40 - The state of Chinese fiscal policy
19:12 - A flash point in Chinese overcapacity
24:14 - A commodity catalyst - reflation incoming?
28:46 - Will the U.S experience a recession soon?
36:48 - A fiscal...
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This episode dives deep into the intricacies of trend following strategies and their connection to complex adaptive systems. Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen explore how these systems respond to market signals and the importance of boundaries in shaping investor behavior. They discuss the challenges faced by trend followers in the current market environment, particularly in October, where many strategies have encountered difficulties. The conversation touches on significant topics such as risk management, diversification, and the role of outliers in financial markets, emphasizing that these seemingly anomalous events are actually a natural part of the market's fabric. With insights drawn from recent literature, including works by John Holland and Jeffrey West, the episode highlights the necessity of adapting to evolving market signals and the dynamic interplay between agents within these complex systems.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Rich on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:40 - Our thoughts go to Florida
03:39 - A rough time for trend following
08:39 - Industry performance update
12:14 - Q1, Shahar: Regarding using long only trend following as an overlay to broad market ETFs
23:38 - Applying Warren Buffett's philosophy to trend following
32:33 - Setting limits in your trade following strategy
40:47 - What complex adaptive system can teach us about trend following
01:06:22 - What is up for next week?
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights...
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Our guest on this episode is Richard Holden, economics professor at the University of New South Wales Sydney author of a new book: Money in the 21st Century: Cheap, Mobile and Digital. Richard explains why the prospect of a private digital currency run by a company like Amazon or Google is a real possibility and why that would represent an enormous transfer of power from democratic governments to a private company. He also talks about China’s digital currency, its vast user base in China and how it even has users in Australia. Richard believes the US should proactively head off the threat from these digital competitors by creating ‘fedcoin’ - a digital currency managed by the Federal Reserve. He believes it could be done with little disruption to consumers and could bring enormous benefits.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Richard on Twitter and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:04 - Introduction to Richard Holden
06:06 - A whole year without cash
08:08 - What are the benefits of cash?
12:40 - The implications of a cashless society
23:53 - A big hurdle
26:04 - Building a better mouse trap
28:08 - Dealing...
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Today we tackle the most important questions arising from the evolving landscape of systematic investing, focusing on the changing dynamics of asset allocation in the current market environment. Nick Baltas and Niels discuss the implications of rising interest rates and inflation on traditional 60/40 portfolios, questioning whether this approach remains valid. We explore the potential benefits of incorporating trend-following strategies, especially in light of recent market volatility. The conversation includes insights on risk management and the importance of understanding correlation, particularly during downturns. With a blend of empirical analysis and practical advice, the episode touches on the key question of how much investors should allocate to trend-following strategies from a different perspective and encourages listeners to rethink their investment strategies and consider more adaptive approaches to asset allocation.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Nick on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:28 - What has caught our attention recently?
07:37 - Industry performance update
09:02 - Reflecting on August and September
12:25 - The reversal of the short fixed income trade
17:31 - The death of short-term trend following?
21:32 - Finding the right trading speed
24:15 - Out-performing is a long game
27:47 - Its time to move direction
29:53 - Can CTA's forecast risk and returns?
33:45 - Evaluating models over a long time
39:24 - Baltas'...
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Amy Flikerski, Head of External Portfolio Management at CPP Investments - the C$600bn Canadian state pension fund - joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss allocating capital to emerging and established hedge funds. They delve into the evolution of the hedge fund industry from the perspective of an allocator and particularly how the growth of the large multi-manager multi-strats has impacted hedge fund allocating. Amy discusses the role of the External Manager Allocations in the context of CPP Investment’s overall portfolio and some of the key considerations from a top down and bottom up perspective when the portfolio is constructed. Amy also highlights how CPP Investments evaluates emerging managers, what makes a great hedge fund manager and also offers valuable advice for hedge fund managers when engaging with allocators.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Amy on LinkedIn.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:02 - Introduction to Amy Flikerski
08:02 - How they think about manager selection
09:28 - How do they categorize their strategies?
11:40 - How they assess their investment objective
13:07 - How they manage risk
14:29 - How the global macro environment affects them
15:41 - How they manage a billion dollar portfolio
17:11 -...
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In this week’s episode, Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to discuss the interplay between market flows and global macro developments as we enter a pivotal time of year for markets. They explore the potentially favourable setup for equities in the coming weeks, driven by flow dynamics and dealer positioning, while considering how recent policy moves in China could support the near-term bullish outlook. As the U.S. election approaches, Cem outlines how different outcomes could impact policy, the economy, and geopolitics—ultimately shaping the post-election market landscape. Despite recent U.S. inflation data showing lower prints, Karsan reaffirms his view of a structurally inflationary period ahead and shares key trades that could capitalize on this outlook in the current market environment.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:17 - Industry performance update
05:36 - Seasonality in markets
17:49 - Are China losing the ability to protect their assets?
21:44 - A dangerous path for Chinese assets
25:36 - A structural downtrend in inflation?
35:30 - Is the market looking through the rate cuts?
39:37 - Trump vs. Harris - how will it impact markets?
46:19 - A global conflict perspective
50:40 - How the election might impact commodities
52:06 - Migration policy and its effect on inflation
53:57 - How markets might trade right after the election is over
57:13 - Dangerous periods...
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In this episode, I’m joined by Alan Dunne and Kevin Coldiron, a co-author of "The Rise of Carry", for an in-depth discussion on the recent unwinding of the Yen carry trade and a broader exploration of how carry trades are becoming more embedded in both our financial decisions and everyday lives. We revisit key insights Kevin took from his book, published in 2019, and explore where things have unfolded differently than anticipated. Kevin also breaks down how the S&P 500 might be central to the current carry regime and offers thoughts on how we could assess the risk of a ‘deflation shock’ or ‘carry crash.’ We round out the conversation by considering the future of carry and the role geopolitics might play in shaping its course.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Follow Kevin on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
03:02 - How carry trading has evolved since "The Rise of Carry" was published
06:04 - How carry is related to the COVID-19 crisis
09:12 - Has anything surprised Kevin since he wrote the book?
17:02 - Was SVB a lucky escape?
23:15 - S&P 500 - the essence of a carry trade?
30:16 - Short-term moves are being exacerbated
32:30 - VIX inversions and structural changes
34:23 - What are the characteristics of a carry trade?
37:58 - A change in carry = a change in the monetary system?
45:09 - How could you
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Together with Mark Rzepczynski we dive deep into the outlook for trend following and discuss what may drive trends in the coming years. We analyze the role that the Fed plays in the rise of carry trading and we discuss how the so-called KuU framework can be used for in your strategy. We also discuss the use of AI when it comes to forecasting and building models and why systematic managers should be better at explaining what they do, how to use the 3 C’s to better understand markets, the pros and cons of buying an index and more.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Mark on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
01:03 - What has caught our attention recently?
04:18 - Industry performance update
09:58 - Who is responsible for the rise of carry?
16:30 - The markets are the real voting machine
18:34 - Reviewing Powell's speech
23:39 - The KuU framework
29:13 - The difference between AI generated and human-made forecasts
38:15 - The flaws of systematic managers
47:05 - Working with the 3 C's
57:13 - "What was it like to be in a bear market?"
01:01:42 - The pros and cons of buying an index
Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved
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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:
1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about
In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the...
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This week you are in for a real treat, as Adam Rozencwajg rejoins Cem Karsan and me for a deep dive into the latest developments in the Commodity markets. It's been 15 months since Adam last appeared on the show, and he's back to share his updated perspectives on the highly anticipated next Commodity Super Cycle. Adam even unveils a fascinating and little-known fact about what often coincides with the start of a Super Cycle. We also take a closer look at key markets like Gold, Copper, and the entire Energy Complex—topics at the heart of debates surrounding the US Dollar and the Green Transition. Packed with fresh insights and thought-provoking discussions, we hope you will enjoy this conversation.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Cem on Twitter.
Follow Adam on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:14 - Catching up
05:00 - What has happened since we last spoke?
12:58 - The state of the metal sector
22:06 - Thoughts on positioning in commodity trading
28:41 - Getting the timing right
42:51 - It's all about volatility
44:38 - Playing the long game
47:46 - Are investors positioning wrong?
52:40 - A carry trade bubble
54:29 - Why are many investors bullish on copper?
01:01:12 - Why are copper prices going down?
01:05:13 - Demographics - a bizarre kind of beast
01:08:40 - An...
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In this episode, Alan Dunne and I explore Mario Draghi's latest vision for Europe and discuss an insightful interview with Kenneth Rogoff, titled "We Will See More Spikes in Inflation," which covers key macroeconomic issues. We also explore the recent Goldman Sachs reports, highlighted by the Financial Times, showing significant outflows from multi-strategy funds. Alan shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and why he believes we may witness more “flash crashes and extreme market moves” in the near future. Finally, we dig into two articles by Cliff Asness—"The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and "In Praise of High-Volatility Alternatives"—which challenge traditional thinking on market efficiency and make a compelling case for considering higher volatility versions of strategies like Trend Following over their low-volatility cousins.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Alan on Twitter.
Episode TimeStamps:
00:42 - What has caught our attention recently?
05:04 - Draghi's vision for Europe
08:09 - Keneth Rogoff's outlook for inflation
14:02 - Clients withdrawing money from multi-strat funds
19:58 - The big macro picture
27:33 - Is monetary policy still loose?
29:11 - Industry performance update (Finally!)
34:11 - The carry unwind
41:20 - Are people underestimating trend following?
44:51 - Are markets becoming less efficient?
48:30 - Why higher volatility funds may be good for your portfolio
56:52
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Our guest on this episode is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of a new book: Shocks, Crises and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk. He explains why it’s wrong to put focus on extreme “doom mongering” predictions - which often turn out to be false alarms. We discuss his intuitive framework for evaluating economic predictions and use it to evaluate the risk of inflation and debt in the coming years.
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EXCEPTIONAL RESOURCE: Find Out How to Build a Safer & Better Performing Portfolio using this FREE NEW Portfolio Builder Tool
-----
Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.
IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.
And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.
Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.
Send your questions to [email protected]
And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.
Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.
Follow Philipp on LinkedIn and read his book.
Episode TimeStamps:
02:07 - Introduction to Philipp Carlsson
03:08 - What motivated Carlsson to write his book?
05:13 - A framework for assessing macro risk
09:00 - How do we react to doomsayings?
11:18 - Covid19 - the perfect example of a false alarm
15:15 - The new area of tightness
18:27 - It is all about labour cost
23:46 - The deflationary power of technology
26:46 - The outlook of the labour market
32:22 - Why inflation expectations will stay achored in a world of...
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