Episodi
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What's Behind the Federal Reserve's Next Move?
In episode 224, Quinton Harris takes a stand against misconceptions about his podcast's purpose, emphasizing its educational nature rather than being a lead generation platform. He explains the extensive methodology behind their market forecasts, drawing from multiple reliable data sources including NAR, MLS, MBS Highway, and others, to provide clarity in a landscape often muddied by sensational headlines.
The episode dives into recent economic indicators, particularly focusing on the CPI and PPI reports, and their implications for Federal Reserve policy. Harris makes a compelling case for why the Fed's focus has shifted from inflation to employment, analyzing recent jobless claims and unemployment figures that suggest a potential rate cut is imminent, with a 98.1% confidence factor for a quarter-point reduction.
[00:00] - Introduction and Podcast Purpose Clarification
[03:10] - CPI and PPI Report Analysis
[07:46] - Employment Data Discussion
[09:29] - Federal Reserve Policy Analysis
[12:02] - Future Rate Cut Predictions
Key Quotes:
"This is a factual based podcast with my opinions inside of that." - Quinton Harris
"It's jobs over inflation when it comes to the Federal Reserve at this point." - Quinton Harris
"Once unemployment becomes a bad issue, it's something that you can't pull back and say, 'Oh, go hire a bunch of people.'" - Quinton Harris
"If we go over to the FedWatch... it is now at a 98.1 percent confidence factor that they're going to cut the rates a quarter." - Quinton Harris
"I think as soon as that starts to happen, we'll be back in the low sixes, potentially upper fives sooner than later." - Quinton Harris
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What's Really Behind Your Mortgage Rate?
In episode 223, Quinton Harris breaks down the fundamental components that determine mortgage rates, addressing common questions from his audience about terms like "the spread" and "10-year treasury." He explains how mortgage rates are calculated by combining the base rate (10-year treasury) with the spread, which represents the premium investors require for taking on mortgage-backed securities risk.
The episode delves deep into why current spreads are higher than historical norms, examining factors like increased origination costs, compliance requirements, and market volatility. Quinton emphasizes how consistency in rates could transform the real estate market, suggesting that even a steady 6% rate over four months could significantly boost both home sales and refinancing activity.
[00:00] - Introduction and Episode Overview
[01:00] - Base Rate and 10-Year Treasury Explanation
[03:56] - Understanding the Spread and MBS Risk
[04:36] - Impact of Market Volatility on Rates
[09:22] - Current Spread Analysis
[13:47] - Potential Market Impact of Stable Rates
Key Quotes:
"The old adage, the higher the risk, the higher the reward, the lower the risk, the lower the reward." - Quinton Harris
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Episodi mancanti?
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In this special replay episode, host Quinton Harris brings back one of the most impactful interviews featuring Dr. Steve Tufts. As we approach 2025, this timeless conversation offers invaluable insights on goal setting, achievement mindset, and building resilience during challenging times.
[00:00] - Introducing Dr. Steve Tufts
[04:06] - Victim mentality vs achiever mindset
[07:34] - Setting goals effectively
[15:14] - The domino effect
[18:02] - Sphere of influence
[20:52] - Building a resilient mindset
[25:30] - You are your five closest friends
Key Quotes:
"Achievers take action. Achievers take accountability and ownership." - Dr. Steve Tufts
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Are We Ignoring the Warning Signs in Employment Data?
In episode 221, Quinton Harris tackles the complexities of current employment data and its interpretation by the Federal Reserve. He addresses recent feedback about credit card debt, providing compelling evidence that homeowners actually carry three times more credit card debt than non-homeowners, challenging misconceptions about debt distribution across housing status.
This episode focuses on troubling trends in employment data, particularly the significant differences between initial reports and subsequent revisions. Quinton presents evidence of a contracting job market, including a 27% increase in job cuts and the lowest hiring announcements in 10 years, suggesting the Federal Reserve's narrative of a resilient job market might be missing crucial warning signs of economic change.
[00:00] - Tribute to Bill Flemister
[01:18] - Response to Credit Card Debt Episode Feedback
[03:03] - Analysis of Homeowner vs. Renter Credit Card Debt
[07:45] - Job Report Analysis
[09:09] - Manufacturing Job Losses
[09:52] - ADP Report Revisions Discussion
[13:08] - Challenger Job Cut Report AnalysisKey Quotes:
"The job market is constricting, it's not improving." - Quinton Harris
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Will Black Friday's Record Credit Card Rejections Signal a Consumer Crisis in 2024?
Quinton Harris explains the evolution of Black Friday, revealing its true origins as the day retailers historically turned profitable for the year. He uncovers Roosevelt's strategic decision in the 1930s to move Thanksgiving to the fourth Thursday of November, a calculated move to extend the holiday shopping season and boost retail profits.
The discussion takes a concerning turn as Quinton analyzes recent Federal Reserve data showing alarming trends in consumer credit. With credit card rejection rates reaching historic highs and 45% of credit limit increase requests being denied, he challenges the media's portrayal of heavy consumer spending as a sign of economic strength, instead pointing to these indicators as potential warning signs of economic stress.
[00:00] - Origins and Evolution of Black Friday
[02:26] - Roosevelt's Impact on Thanksgiving Date
[03:29] - Media Coverage vs. Economic Reality
[05:59] - Analysis of Credit Card Rejection Rates
[06:45] - Mortgage Refinance Application Trends
[10:04] - Credit Limit Increase Rejections
[13:14] - Practical Advice for Credit Limit Increases
Key Quotes:
"Spending money is not necessarily the sign of a good economy." - Quinton Harris
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Will The Federal Reserve's Favorite Inflation Metric Force Faster Rate Cuts in 2024?
Quinton dives deep into the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measurement tool. He breaks down why the recent uptick in PCE readings shouldn't cause alarm, explaining how the shelter component's lagging indicators are painting a picture that doesn't match real-time market conditions.
The discussion shifts to a significant announcement from the Federal Housing Finance Agency about increasing conventional loan limits for 2024. Quinton presents a historical perspective on loan limits, demonstrating how they've evolved from $252,700 to the upcoming 2025 limit of $806,500, reinforcing his argument that housing market fundamentals remain strong despite contrary narratives circulating online.
[00:00] - PCE Data Analysis and Inflation Trends
[04:12] - Deep Dive into Shelter Component
[05:14] - New Conventional Loan Limits for 2024-2025
[10:37] - Employment Market Analysis and Federal Reserve Implications
[14:14] - Consumer Savings Rate and Future Economic Indicators
Key Quotes:
"Housing is not a bubble that is going to collapse and it's not 2006 all over again." - Quinton Harris
"For the first time, our savings rate is increasing in America because the jobs are paying more." - Quinton Harris
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Is Your $2,000 Monthly Rent Actually Costing You $400,000 in Net Worth?
In episode 218 we explain why the average homebuyer age has jumped from 33 to 38 years old. Through data and market analysis, Quinton challenges the popular narrative that renting is the more economical choice, presenting statistics about the wealth gap between homeowners and renters.
Quinton breaks down the connection between birth rates and future housing demand, revealing how an incoming wave of over 11 million potential homebuyers in the next three years could impact the market. He presents a case for why home prices are unlikely to decrease, backed by comprehensive data about inventory shortages and demographic trends that are reshaping the real estate landscape.
[00:00] - Introduction and Thanksgiving Message
[01:51] - Homeowner vs. Renter Statistics
[04:56] - Birth Rate Analysis and Future Buyer Demand
[07:13] - Impact of Interest Rates on Home Prices
[10:25] - Why Home Prices Continue to RiseKey Quotes:
"Your first time you buy a home, it's not going to be your dream home." - Quinton Harris
"Every year you wait, an additional three to four million people become your competitors." - Quinton Harris
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Why Are Foreclosure Rates at Historic Lows Despite Rising Credit Card Debt?
Quinton Harris analyzes the latest New York Fed report, challenging popular misconceptions about an impending foreclosure crisis. He presents data showing foreclosure rates at historic lows while examining the concerning trends in consumer credit markets, particularly the trillion-dollar credit card debt predominantly affecting the 18-35 age group.
The episode delves into the complex relationship between bankruptcies, foreclosures, and credit scores, offering a comprehensive look at current market health indicators. Quinton provides insights into credit availability trends, which have reached an unprecedented $5 trillion, and discusses Jamie Dimon's warning about potential turbulence in consumer credit markets. He concludes with an interesting observation about Warren Buffett's recent market moves and their potential significance.
[00:00] - Introduction and Foreclosure Data Analysis
[04:05] - Credit Card Debt Discussion
[08:17] - Analysis of 90-Day Delinquencies by Loan Type
[11:35] - Market MoversKey Quotes:
"The amount of credit availability is on credit cards specifically only credit cards is literally cresting the chart at 5 trillion." - Quinton Harris
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Can 5% Interest Rates Unlock the Housing Market's Demand?
In episode 216, Quinton Harris dives deep into the disconnect between improving consumer sentiment and actual buying behavior in today's housing market. Drawing from Fannie Mae's latest consumer home price sentiment index, he explores why despite reaching a two-year high in positive sentiment, only 20% of surveyed consumers are ready to buy right now.
The episode uncovers the reality of America's housing shortage, with estimates ranging from 4 to 7 million homes needed to meet current demand. Quinton examines how this undersupply, dating back to the 2008 financial crisis, continues to shape market dynamics and challenges conventional wisdom about potential price corrections. He provides insights into emerging affordable markets and forecasts for 2025, suggesting a potential 9% increase in transactions as interest rates are expected to decline.
[00:00] - Introduction and Consumer Sentiment Overview
[01:23] - Analysis of Current Market Affordability
[02:02] - Housing Supply Shortage Discussion
[05:04] - Most Affordable Housing Markets Review
[07:45] - 2025 Market Forecast Analysis
[09:17] - Interest Rate Predictions and Impact
[13:31] - Supply and Demand Dynamics
[17:04] - Industry Professional Outlook
Key Quotes:
"I haven't seen a factual set of data to suggest or to convince me yet that these home prices are going to go backwards. I see a lot of emotion." - Quinton Harris
"If you're a residential mortgage broker, get ready because the wave is starting now... half the originators are out of the business from peak of February 2022 to now. That's a win." - Quinton Harris
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Will the Fed's 200 Basis Point Rate Cut Change the Housing Market in 2025?
In episode 215, Quinton Harris shares a comprehensive analysis of the Federal Reserve's recent meeting and its implications for future rate cuts. He examines Powell's acknowledgment of the 3-month and 6-month core PCE as key metrics, suggesting a shift toward a more neutral monetary policy stance that could lead to nearly 200 basis points in rate cuts.
The episode tackles the three major incentives driving the Fed's rate reduction strategy, including market stability, national debt management, and housing market dynamics. Here we talk about why home builders are choosing to offer incentives rather than reduce prices, and how this strategy connects to broader labor market concerns that could accelerate the Fed's rate-cutting timeline.
[00:00] - Introduction and Fed Meeting Overview
[02:43] - Powell's Key Comments and PCE Focus
[04:48] - Understanding Neutral vs. Restrictive Rates
[07:58] - Three Fed Incentives for Rate Cuts
[12:07] - Housing Market and Builder Strategy Analysis
[19:17] - Powell's Future and Leadership DiscussionKey Quotes:
"If we start seeing signs of the labor market weakening, you can bet that 200 basis points is going to be cut much quicker than the duration of 2025." - Quinton Harris
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Will Trump's Economic Policies Lead to a New Housing Market Boom in 2024?
In episode 214, Quinton Harris shares a detailed analysis of how Trump's election victory could reshape the housing market and monetary policy landscape. The episode explores the immediate market reactions to the election results, including surges in stock markets and crypto, while examining the potential impacts on bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
Here, Quinton breaks down why affordable housing will be crucial to the new administration's success and how the Federal Reserve's independence might be tested. He explains why tariffs won't be an immediate priority and how interest rate policies could be leveraged to stimulate housing market growth and manage the national deficit.
[00:00] - Election Impact and Economic Context
[02:25] - Market Reactions and Bond Performance
[05:16] - Trump's Housing Policy Analysis
[09:42] - Federal Reserve's Role and Future Direction
[17:25] - Tariffs and Job Creation StrategyKey Quotes:
"I think what was said is this from the American public, and I think majority was loud and clear... The economy has not been great for everyone." - Quinton Harris
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Will Trump's Economic Vision and New Cabinet Choices Reshape America's Future?
In episode 213, Quinton Harris and Lenny Curry dive deep into the post-election analysis of Trump's historic victory, examining the key factors that influenced voters' decisions. The hosts break down how economic concerns, including inflation and housing market challenges, played a crucial role in shaping the election outcome and discuss the potential impact of bringing figures like Elon Musk into the cabinet.
The conversation explores media influence, highlighting how podcast appearances and social media engagement helped Trump reach younger demographics and create coalition shifts in Hispanic and African American voters. Quinton and Lenny also analyze the implications for housing markets, interest rates, and the future of the Federal Reserve under the new administration.
[00:00] - Introduction and Post-Election Overview
[02:18] - Woke Culture's Impact on Elections
[03:26] - The Republican Party's Realignment
[06:32] - Media Transformation and Voter Demographics
[08:55] - Key Points in Trump's Campaign
[16:22] - Trump's Potential Cabinet Members
[21:22] - Border Security and Immigration Policy
[25:34] - Future Outlook and Party RealignmentKey quotes:
"Trump ran a campaign on ideas. They ran a campaign on emotion." - Lenny Curry
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With a 95% Chance of Fed Rate Cut, Should You Wait to Buy or Refinance Your Home?
In episode 212, Quinton Harris shares a comprehensive analysis of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and its implications for mortgage rates. Here we examine the Fed funds rate history, JOLTS reports, and employment data, Quinton explains why a quarter-point rate cut is virtually guaranteed and what this means for potential homebuyers and refinancers.
Drawing from multiple data sources, including the CME group's predictions and contradicting employment reports, Quinton challenges the conventional narrative about job market strength and reveals why post-election timing might be crucial for real estate transactions.
[00:00] - Introduction and Fed Week Overview
[01:05] - Federal Reserve Rate History and 2024-2025 Predictions
[02:48] - Impact of Rate Reductions on Mortgage Markets
[07:26] - JOLTS Report Analysis and Employment Trends
[09:31] - Government Jobs Data Discrepancies
[12:39] - Post-Election Market Predictions and Refinancing WaveKey Quotes:
"The job market doesn't look as strong as it does on paper." - Quinton Harris
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Will Your Vote Actually Make a Difference This Election Day?
In episode 211, Quinton Harris and former Mayor Lenny Curry share their personal experiences of taking their family to vote. This conversation explores the importance of civic duty, family values, and the perspective of watching the next generation engage in the democratic process, particularly during a significant election year with crucial amendments on the Florida ballot.
The episode explores the technical aspects of early voting, the importance of voter education, and how political campaigns utilize early voting data. Through their conversation, they address the concerning trend of election anxiety, with 69% of Americans reporting stress over the upcoming election. They also highlight the importance of maintaining friendships despite political differences and the privilege of living in a democracy where citizens can freely express their political views.[00:00] - Introduction Voting Experience
[03:10] - Voter Registration Process and Deadlines
[05:54] - Importance of Voter Education and Amendment Understanding
[08:56] - Political Division and Maintaining Relationships
[11:56] - Election Anxiety and Economic Concerns
[13:16] - Early Voting Impact and Campaign Strategies
[15:44] - Final Thoughts and Election Night PredictionsKey Quotes:
"You shouldn't lose friendships over politics." - Quinton Harris (quoting JD Vance)
"69% of people polled have anxiety over this election." - Lenny Curry
"We have the right to vote. We have the right to criticize our leaders." - Lenny Curry
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Why Are Distressed Sellers and Inventory Waves Critical for a Housing Crash?
In episode 210, Quinton Harris dives deep into the essential components needed for a housing market crash, focusing on two critical elements: distressed sellers and waves of inventory. Through detailed analysis of foreclosure data, bankruptcy trends, and current market conditions, this episode provides concrete evidence why today's market fundamentally differs from the 2008 crash scenario.
Through research, charts and data from Housing Wire, Quinton systematically dismantles popular social media narratives about an impending housing crash. He shares statistics about home equity positions, mortgage-free properties, and historically low foreclosure rates, offering valuable insights for first-time homebuyers and real estate professionals who need facts to combat fear-based market predictions.
[00:00] - Introduction and Episode Overview
[01:58] - Understanding Distressed Sellers and Market Dynamics
[05:25] - Historical Foreclosure and Bankruptcy Data Analysis
[07:25] - Current Inventory Levels vs. Historical Trends
[12:33] - Equity Positions in Today's Market
[16:18] - Concluding Thoughts on Market StabilityKey Quotes:
"98.3% of homeowners have an equity position in their home in America right now." - Quinton Harris
"Aren't you always buying at the peak though?" - Alex Stewart (quoted by Quinton)
"For a home price crash to take place, you got to have distressed sellers...You got to have a wave of inventory. These variables have to be there." - Quinton Harris______________________
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Why Haven't Real Estate Prices Crashed Despite Rising Mortgage Rates?
In episode 209, we tackle one of the most debated topics in today's real estate market: why housing prices continue to rise despite increasing mortgage rates. With a deep dive into 13 years of market data from 2012 to 2024, this episode systematically debunks the popular social media narratives predicting a housing market crash and reveals why these predictions consistently fail to be true.
Through comprehensive analysis of historical trends and current market conditions, Quinton exposes the misleading information circulating online and provides concrete evidence of real estate's resilience. From the myth of shadow inventory to the impact of COVID-19, this episode offers valuable insights for homeowners, buyers, sellers, and real estate professionals seeking to understand the true state of the housing market.
[00:00] - Introduction and Episode Overview
[02:39] - Historical Review of Failed Crash Predictions
[03:00] - Shadow Inventory Myth and 2012-2013 Market Performance
[04:55] - Manufacturing Recession and Bubble High Concerns
[07:09] - COVID-19 Impact and Market Response
[13:04] - Breaking Down National DataKey Quotes:
"Outside of that from 1942 to 2024 you have one year of negativity and it's negative one." - Quinton Harris
"If prices follow volume... why haven't the national home prices seen a steep decline or any decline in that manner because volume's down?" - Quinton Harris
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What’s really freezing the housing market, and how does it impact you?
In episode 208, we dive deep into the concept of "frozen homes" and the impact this trend is having on today's housing market. With affordability at an all-time low and inventory still tight, homeowners are finding themselves locked in—unable to sell their homes due to rising costs and low-interest mortgages. Quinton explores why many current homeowners are staying put and how this “frozen” state is contributing to the housing market's ongoing challenges.
Quinton also breaks down key data, including the rise in mortgage-free homeowners, and how supply and demand issues are intensifying. From a historical perspective on interest rates to the future of homeownership trends, this episode gives you a comprehensive look at the forces shaping today’s real estate market.
[00:00] - Introduction and Knoxville Trip Recap
[01:35] - The Concept of Frozen Homes and Affordability Issues
[04:12] - Inventory Challenges and Generational Homeownership Trends
[06:30] - The Impact of COVID-19 on Home Prices and Supply
[07:49] - Rent Prices, Mortgage Rates, and the Lock-In Effect
[09:45] - Why 40% of Homeowners Are Mortgage-Free
[12:04] - What Interest Rates Will Unlock the Housing Market?
[14:50] - How Supply May Shape the Future of HomeownershipKey quotes:
"Homeowners today are frozen out of buying a new home due to affordability." - Quinton Harris
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Is your insurance costing more than it should? In episode 207, your host Quinton Harris talks about the pressing issue of rising insurance premiums and shares practical strategies for home buyers to reduce their costs. From homeowner’s insurance in Florida to the impacts of wildfires in California, Quinton explores how climate risks are driving insurance rates up and what buyers can do to navigate these increases.
Quinton shares insights on leveraging tools like flood and fire risk assessments, along with tips on how to lower premiums by addressing key factors like home age, roof condition, and even transferring existing insurance policies. Whether you're a current homeowner or a buyer looking to protect your investment, this episode gives you practical advice to help you mitigate insurance costs and secure the best possible rates.
[00:00] - Introduction to storm seasons and insurance impacts
[03:27] - Tracking hurricanes and their long-term economic effects
[06:31] - How rising insurance costs affect buyer psychology
[08:28] - Major sites when people look for a home
[09:28] - Using climate risk data in home buying decisions
[13:04] - Tips for reducing your insurance premiums
[13:59] - How to transfer lower flood insurance premiums when buying a home
[17:36] - The need for legislation to address the insurance crisis
Key quotes:
"The lasting impact of these storms is more than just physical damage; it's the financial burden on homeowners." - Quinton Harris
"If insurance keeps rising, it could become a major obstacle to homeownership." - Quinton Harris
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Is the Fed's rate cut addiction setting us up for sub-5% mortgage rates?
In episode 206, host Quinton Harris dives deep into the recent CPI and PPI reports, talking about their implications for the economy and future Fed decisions. Quinton breaks down the interplay between inflation metrics, job market data, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, offering you a clear picture of what's really driving economic trends.
Here we share the historical pattern that could signal a significant drop in mortgage rates. Drawing from 40 years of data, Quinton explains why we might be seeing sub-5% mortgage rates again, and why 2025 could be the year for refinances and home purchases. Whether you're a homeowner, a prospective buyer, or just interested in economic trends, this episode will give you valuable insights into what the future might hold.
[00:00] - Introduction and overview of CPI and PPI reports
[01:07] - Breaking down the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI)
[03:34] - Federal Reserve's focus on job market data
[05:20] - Analysis of Fed commentaries on inflation readings
[10:54] - Investor psychology during Fed rate cut cycles
[14:00] - Historical patterns in 10-year Treasury yields after Fed rate cuts
[15:00] - The potential for a refinance and purchase wave in 2025
Key Quotes:
"What's moving the Federal Reserve is the job market." - Quinton Harris
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Will the Federal Reserve's next move be influenced by the questionable BLS jobs report?
In episode 205, we dive deep into the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs report, uncovering the numbers that could significantly impact the Federal Reserve's decision-making process. Quinton analyzes the surprising surge in government jobs, the discrepancy between reported and calculated unemployment rates, and the record-breaking number of multiple job holders.
This episode covers the potential political implications of these job numbers, especially in the context of the upcoming election. Quinton questions the accuracy of the reported 4.1% unemployment rate, suggesting that a more realistic figure could be 4.5% when accounting for average government job creation. He also highlights the concerning trend of part-time jobs dominating the market and the creation of 69,000 new bartender positions, questioning the strength these numbers truly represent in the economy.
[00:00] - Introduction and overview of the BLS jobs report
[01:18] - Analysis of the household survey and government workers surge
[06:04] - Government jobs vs. Private sector job numbers
[06:56] - Part-time jobs and unemployment rate discrepancy
[07:44] - Why will the Federal Reserve continue to make cuts?
[10:22] - Breakdown of job creations, focusing on leisure and hospitality sector
[12:55] - Potential impact on the upcoming election and future economic outlook
Key Quotes:
"The number of people who need more than one job to survive in this economy, is at an all time high. That is not strength." - Quinton Harris
"Whoever wins is going to inherit a pretty dismal unemployment and labor market. That's a fact." - Quinton Harris
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