Episodi
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The German ultimatum to Belgium had roused the Brussels government and rallied the nation, but other than this, much was still unclear by the early afternoon of this Bank Holiday Monday. News of Belgium's determination to resist took a surprisingly long time to arrive, but more than that, how long was Germany willing to wait? Had she already begun her invasion of Belgium? Was she already at war with France? Doubts reigned supreme over what would happen next, but one man in particular was in dire need of clarity.
British Foreign Secretary Sir Edward Grey was due to give his speech to the House of Commons imminently, but before he could, there was a lot of housekeeping to work through, to ensure that his transformative speech occurred in the best possible circumstances. At the very least, the Cabinet was no longer murmuring about a division, and those who decided to resign kept their choice quiet for now. Much would depend on the next few hours of this eventful day, but as had been the case so often by now, Berlin did much of Grey's work for him.
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The German army was firmly in control of German policy, but its next steps were obvious to any contemporary with even the slightest grasp of the situation. The detour into Belgium had been flagged long in advance by the French, and could only be looked at in one way. The solution, though not officially announced in Berlin, was to manufacture a wide range of rumours of French border violations into a kind of justification. This was brought to its logical conclusion, as the Germans tried to claim - with a straight face - that they needed to invade Belgium, because the French were about to invade there too, so it was essential for German security.
Who could possibly believe such a naked set of lies? Remarkably, the rumour mill was so effective, that it was persuasive enough within German society, and among German officials. Countless communiques emphasised the defensive nature of Germany's offensive actions, and chastised other Europeans for their lack of understanding. Berlin could try to create this alternative reality, but in truth the Schlieffen Plan was the real driving force behind their actions, and other powers could clearly see this truth. Yet, in a policy which was as cynical as it was cringeworthy, Berlin persevered, insistent to the end that offence was defence, and the invasion of Belgium was an urgent matter of national security.
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Episodi mancanti?
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Even as Moltke examined Germany's strategic options, the world was turning against Germany. Berlin pressed its case by pointing out the Russian sins of dishonesty and pre-emption, but was anyone listening? Britain's diplomats in Berlin, St Petersburg, and Vienna had had enough. The news from Luxemburg was a clear sign of things to come, and even if they were sympathetic to the Kaiser's position, the German response was viewed as an overreaction. Declarations of war came from Berlin and Vienna, not Paris and St Petersburg, and this was bound to drown out any pleas about technicalities.
To make up for this, German officials began reporting with increasing frequency on rumours and conjecture, dressing up impossible stories about outrages and violations as proof of Russian and French responsibility. But this only made their hole deeper, and even as Berlin cried foul, it was actively moving the ball forward, into Belgium. The imperatives of the Schlieffen Plan meant the ruin of Germany's reputation, and forced German officials to cling to the delusion that the eventual triumph would all be worth it - even while they opened Pandora's Box, and unleashed the madness of a great war upon the world.
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While Germany covered itself in infamy, the German ambassador in London did his best to maintain the fragile Anglo-German relationship. His mission was ultimately doomed, but no one could accuse Prince Max Lichnowsky of failing to try. An avid Anglophile and advocate of closer ties between the two countries, Lichnowsky continued to hope that his masters in Berlin could be persuaded that it was worth making a sacrifice in the war effort, if it meant Britain stayed out of the war.
Unfortunately for him, Berlin did not agree, and had effectively written Lichnowsky off as having gone native. Lichnowsky would not spare his masters from criticism, and would insist until the end of his life that Germany had been the agent of its own misfortunate, while he was just one of many casualties.
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In this second part of my conversation with Thom, we discuss the unlawful way in which the Trump administration behaves at home, including its treatment of citizens who hold views which the President does not like. It is free speech for me, but not for thee, and we look at the historical context for these actions. Can anything stop Trump? Or are the courts as toothless as Congress and the press. Will the American people be forced to fix these things themselves, or is it already too late to return to the America we used to know? Thanksss again to Thom for joining me, and I hope you enjoyed this deep dive into modern America. Get bonus content on Patreon
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In this first of two episodes with Thom Daly, we focus on the United States and its position in the world following the Trump administration's many blunders and betrayals in foreign policy, trade policy, and many more things besides. If you believe what Trump has done is antithetical to America and what it is supposed to represent, then you'll be in good company. Please join us for a passionate conversation, and let me know what you think. Get bonus content on Patreon
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The traditional picture of British intervention in the First World War normally comes down to one issue - Belgium. On 4 August, Britain did declare war on Germany. However, before this monumental step took place, Britain had already made its choice - or, rather, the British Cabinet had. The Liberal government was against intervention in a majority, and we have seen countless manifestations of this position over the previous days. Asquith, Grey, and Churchill wanted to intervene, but how could they persuade their colleagues of this? In this episode, we discover that the reasons for the government's conversion to intervention came not from Belgium, or France, or even Luxemburg, but from internal political factors.
Simply put, when Grey, Asquith, Churchill and others signalled that they would resign if neutrality became policy, and when the Conservative opposition signalled that they would march to war if in power, the remaining Cabinet members faced an impossible choice. Either they could swallow their opposition, and concede to what Grey and the interventionists wanted, or they could resist, the government would collapse, and the Tories would take Britain to war regardless. As we will see in this episode, this was not much of a choice at all...
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The Schleiffen Plan demanded an invasion of the small Grand Duchy of Luxemburg, where German forces would seize key railway installations, facilitating their march into Belgium, and then to France. Of course, nobody told the Luxemburgers, but Berlin was very eager to make it clear that this unannounced invasion was not an invasion at all. Oh no, this was merely a precautionary measure, essential for German security.
If the Luxemburgers complied peacefully, all would be well. If not, well, then the Luxemburgers must be mad to face down the full might of 7/8 of the German army which barrelled towards them. As hundreds of thousands of soldiers flooded westwards, Europe was alight with diplomatic activity, complete with questions which really should have been answered by now. Peace was all but lost, but that did not mean the war had to arrive with any measure of clarity.
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Now that it was clear Germany would have to face the Entente, and likely Britain's imminent intervention, Berlin became much more active in sending diplomatic feelers across Europe. Romania, Bulgaria, Italy, and the Ottoman Empire, were all ideal targets. Some were erstwhile allies, others convenient partners, but could they be relied upon now, when the war had become reality?
In St Petersburg, the Russian answer to Germany's ultimatum was finally delivered, even if it took several hours for it to reach Berlin. However Sazonov might try to dress it up - however much editorialising the final meeting between he and the German ambassador endured - one thing could not be denied. Russia and Germany were now at war, and both conceived of this conflict as purely defensive in nature. Each had a point, but neither were able to pull back, and talk increasingly turned from preserving peace to preparing for war, as the desperate diplomacy of all sides did its work.
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We open with the shattered dreams of Kaiser Wilhelm II, as the British claim a 'misunderstanding' must have occurred to make Berlin believe Britain and France could remain neutral. The rollercoaster of emotions ended with Wilhelm's bitter confirmation to Moltke - he could do what he liked now. What Moltke liked to do and what he had to do were one and the same. It was time to switch back on the Schlieffen Plan, which meant world war was inevitable.
And yet, Germany delayed its declaration of war on France, even as mobilisation was announced in Paris, and Italy signalled it would remain neutral. Germany's diplomatic options had shrank dramatically. All that now existed was Vienna, and the hope that the pressure campaigns in Constantinople would finally pay off, yet there were no guarantees. The only guarantee was that war was now official, even if St Petersburg had yet to confirm it...
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In the final hours of peace, the German government was led to believe that a miracle had occurred. Incredibly, Britain had affirmed its intention not only to remain neutral, but to guarantee the neutrality of France as well. Where had such a monumental offer come from? Was it legitimate, or the product of a 'misunderstanding' between the German ambassador and the British government?
In this episode, we examine this infamous chapter in the crisis historiography. Had the British Foreign Secretary's vagueness caught up with him, or was Lichnowsky, the German ambassador, to blame? Had they got their wires crossed, or was something more fascinating going on under the surface, in a city where petitioners bombarded London with requests for support, and more information? Let's find out, as we try to understand this misunderstanding.
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After that disgraceful display in the White House, I couldn't stay silent any longer. Three years on from when I first offered my thoughts on the situation, in this very personal and raw episode, I cover the multilayered implications of the current crisis. What is Trump playing at? Is this new turn in American foreign policy going to fix anything, or is it merely emboldening Russia, weakening Ukraine, and making everyone less safe? You can probably predict where I stand, but if you feel like you're losing your mind right now, I hope you can some catharsis from this extended rant. Get bonus content on Patreon
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We're in the endgame now, but somehow, not everyone got the message.
There was plenty of waiting to be done. Berlin was waiting on Russia's reply to its ultimatum, and France was also expected to reply, but the generals felt they could not wait. Who knew how far Russia's mobilisation had gone, or how close Germany was to disaster? With this added time pressure, the Kaiser approved general mobilisation, as Europe reacted to the news that war would soon erupt. Yet, at the final moment, a lifeline - a message from London, that British and French neutrality could be guaranteed, if only Germany would agree to respect it. Such a momentous idea, in a day of watershed moments, characterised the final hours of European peace.
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In our final JULY episode of the July Crisis, we return to Britain, where the pressure was building to make a decision. Russian mobilisation was clearly in the air, and if the news was true, German mobilisation would soon follow. Was peace possible even now? Many in Britain insisted it could, and declared that to fight a war in the name of a far off Austro-Serbian conflict was anathema to British interests - and British honour.
But the interventionist camp was growing in strength as well. They had The Times on their side, but the Cabinet was as divided as the country. Into this tangled web of red lines and principles, Sir Edward Grey would have to navigate his colleagues somewhere. They couldn't leave France in the lurch, but the public wouldn't have it - not unless a moral case could be made. It was now known that France would respect Belgian neutrality, but Germany would not...
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Now that Berlin had accepted that war with Russia was inevitable, it remained to prepare the diplomatic ground.
German diplomacy had worked behind the scenes to court Romania and the Ottoman Empire, but the latter effort bore the most significant fruit. The Italians were less dependable, but there remained precious little time to persuade Austria to grant her the required concessions. And yet, the German ambassador kept seeking a way out when among his Russian peers. The Tsar insisted it was impossible to stop the mobilisation, but was this true? Sazonov might claim that mobilisation did not have to mean war, but could he guarantee this if Austrian troops invaded Serbia?
The scales were falling, but they had not yet hit the ground. Just as the Tsar could not offer clarity, the Kaiser's men were unable to confirm or deny their position on Belgian neutrality, despite knowing the importance of this question in London. Grey's diplomacy had been outpaced by the ultimata from Berlin, but as the hourglass drained, the German ambassador made a final desperate effort to leverage something, anything, which might persuade Russia to stand down. The message from Berlin was plain, even if it was inconsistently expressed - she did not want war, but felt forced into making it. Whether this message would resonate with European opinion, however, was another story.
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As the news of Russian mobilisation and Germany's Kriegsgefahr spread across Europe, urgent telegrams followed.
Whether in London, Berlin, or Paris, the picture was becoming clearer, but that did not mean contemporaries were content to allow the march to war. The Tsar had burned his bridges in Berlin, as the disgusted Germans scoffed at his decision to mobilise while requesting their mediation. Could he not understand that it was a provocation to prepare his entire army on their borders? Could Britain not see that Austria could give no concessions, and that this would not have made a difference anyway? Could the French not appreciate that necessity demanded she be neutralised first?
It was not cold hearted aggression or a lust for world conquest that spurred the German government forward, but the immediate threat to her security, and the worrying sign that no powers outside of her immediate alliance appeared to be listening to her anymore. Although Berlin had been honest about her intentions since Russia's step was learned of, still, somehow, the impression had set in that Germany was to blame. Grey had not given up hope, but his underlings were not enthusiastic about the prospects. In Berlin, apprehension had given way to a sense of relief. Russian mobilisation was official - surely this removed all questions of who was at fault? They had not sought the war, but if it was to be fought, these were the best possible circumstances. With a stirring sense of justice on their side, the German peacemakers took a step back, as the crisis entered its final phase.
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Russian general mobilisation was underway, and with red imperial posters announcing this grave new step, it could hardly be kept a secret. Yet, somehow, Germany seemed the only power truly in the loop. The question was, why were France and Britain unaware of it? Were they unaware, thanks to their ambassadors in St Petersburg, or had London and Paris chosen to ignore this seismic step, in their rush to blame Berlin?
The behaviour of Ambassadors Buchanan and Paleologue certainly deserves some scrutiny. Both men were on location in St Petersburg, and could see exactly what German ambassador Pourtales could see, so why had their announcements taken so long to arrive? Until they got official confirmation, the British and French governments could not be expected to act, and certainly would not restrain Russia.
The Russian government had a vested interest in maintaining this confusion, and Sergei Sazonov made little effort to spread the news with an official announcement. The news was spreading, but slowly, and Sazonov counted on the Central Powers reacting in such a manner that few would later remember who had moved first. Sazonov was fortunate in his adversaries, but in Berlin particularly, Russian mobilisation meant the end of peaceful diplomacy, even if the blind Entente refused to see it.
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By now, Europe was on a knife edge.
In Berlin, more and more rumours were pouring in that Russian general mobilisation was underway. In Vienna, no statesman was willing to make any concessions. Paris and London were both running shockingly blind. In St Petersburg, the morning of 31 July meant the official beginning of general mobilisation - with official red notices plastered across the city to drive it home.
When Ambassador Pourtales came upon these, he went immediately to Sazonov, and in their sharp conversation one thing became immediately clear to him - Russia was mobilising after all. The frightful rumours were true, and the only question now was how far along in these preparations she truly was. Pourtales fired a telegram to Berlin, informing the government that the Rubicon had been crossed.
Many miles away, the German government was biting its final fingernail when the telegram arrived. They were twenty minutes away from implementing their own measures - the Immediate Danger of War. With this confirmation, there was no denying it anymore - war was inevitable. The rolling snowball which the German Chancellor had so feared had now become unstoppable. Berlin would have no choice but to mobilise in turn, but while they did so, a critical PR campaign began, to make it clear to all of Europe and the world, where the blame truly lay.
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The 30 July was a turning point for the British Cabinet. When the German Chancellor made his bid for British neutrality, yet refused to guarantee the independence of Belgium or to rule out annexations of French colonies, it set in motion a terrible chain of events.
Sir Edward Grey planned to use this faux pas to pile more pressure on the non-interventionists, who seemed to be growing in power every day. His Cabinet was thoroughly divided, but there was one bright spark - Ireland. Thanks to a last minute compromise between Nationalist and Unionist figures, the Home Rule crisis was postponed, for now.
Although the Cabinet was united in revelling in this good news, it was not agreed when it came to the question of intervening in the unfolding crisis. As the full details of the arrangement with France were unknown to them, non-interventionists could not imagine any reason why their country should join the war on her side. Some felt so strongly about maintaining British neutrality, in fact, that they were willing to topple their own government from the inside...
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The Russian decision to commence general mobilisation against Austria and Germany was made in the afternoon of 30 July, ultimately by the Tsar.
It took 24 hours of intense pressure by several leading Russian officials, but after backtracking the previous day, Tsar Nicholas was finally persuaded to go all in. His anxious generals were told that there was no going back - he would not change his mind again, and they could smash their telephone if they wished to guarantee it. But why were they in such a rush to mobilise the entire Russian army in the first place? Accounts of the origins of the First World War, if they cover this pivotal decision, tend to explain it as an example of Russian aggression, and proof that the Russians, rather than the Germans, were in fact responsible for the outbreak of the war. But there was more going on in the Tsar's court than this.
The Russian government had technically jumped the shark, but they had done so for several reasons which at the time, appeared justifiable. The German ambassador had warned against Russian military measures, and threatened intervention. The Austrians had begun bombarding Belgrade. Yet, by far the most consequential factor in Russia's calculations was its intelligence. This intel depicted Austria, and Germany, as preparing military forces far out of proportion to what they publicly claimed. Ironically, the Russians came to believe that their rivals were mobilising covertly, and in response, they began to do the same, with utterly catastrophic consequences for all involved...
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