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On November 9th, 2024, the Canadian Government published a proposed policy to cap oil and gas sector emissions, known as Canada Gazette Part 1. While the final targets will not be set until 2026, the Government estimates that this policy, in conjunction with other policies, will reduce GHG emissions from the oil and gas sector by 35% in the early 2030s compared to 2019. When flexible compliance options are considered, actual emissions are targeted to decline by 19% from 2019 levels.
This week, Sander Duncanson, Partner at Osler and Co-Chair of Osler's national Regulatory, Indigenous, and Environmental practice, joins the podcast. Osler is a leader in Canadian business law.
Peter, Jackie and Sander discuss their concerns with the proposed policy. Topics covered include:
The low likelihood of the regulation becoming final law.The potential for the policy to create winners and losers, market distortions, and other unintended consequences.The complexity of Canada’s regulatory framework which reduces investment.Concerns that Canada and the United States are moving in opposite directions regarding carbon policy. Canada is increasing stringency, while the US is expected to reduce its carbon policy, thereby creating the threat of investment moving from Canada to the US (carbon leakage).The options to provide feedback on the proposed policy are available until January 8th, 2025.Content referenced in this podcast:
Canada Gazette, Part I, Volume 158, Number 45: Oil and Gas Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap Regulations (November 9th, 2024)Consultation feedback can be provided within a series of online forms in the Gazette, Part 1 link above, by January 8th, 2025. Another option for feedback is to submit a “Notice of Objection” by the same date. More information on this option can be found under the heading “PROPOSED REGULATORY TEXT” in the Gazette.Peter Tertzakian’s commentary in The Hub “DeepDive: It’s time for a carbon policy time-out” (November 2nd, 2024)Osler’s Blog “Federal government announces constitutionally questionable oil and gas sector emissions cap” (November 8th, 2024)Please review our disclaimer at:https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/
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On November 5th, Donald Trump was elected as the 47th President of the United States. The Republicans gained a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives. There were also recent provincial elections in Canada, including British Columbia, where the incumbent NDP party nearly lost power to the Conservatives. Federally, in Canada, there is potential for a spring election.
This week, Shachi Kurl, President of the Angus Reid Institute, joins the podcast to talk about the recent elections and polling.
Here are some of the questions that Jackie and Peter asked Shachi: What does the election of Donald Trump tell you about the state of democracies? How important of an issue is immigration? To what extent do Canadians support Trump's policies and approach? What is the likelihood of US import tariffs of 10-20% being applied to Canada? What are the likely energy policies from the Trump administration? What are the priorities in British Columbia post-election, and do you expect any change with respect to natural resource development and LNG? How could the election of President Trump impact the next Canadian election? Do you expect any leadership changes for the Liberals? How does climate change rate as a priority for Canadian voters?
Angus Reid InstituteShachi Kurl, Ottawa Citizen Article, “Don’t expect a unified ‘Team Canada’ approach to Donald Trump this time” (Nov 8, 2024) Awaiting the next President: Canadians prefer Trudeau to deal with Harris, Poilievre to work with Trump (Nov 4, 2024)
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This week on the podcast, Peter and Jackie discuss what they are watching for from the upcoming 29th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, better known as COP29. The conference will take place in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11th to 22nd, 2024.
Next, they delve into the IEA’s recently released World Energy Outlook 2024. This annual report is widely read and used for discussions on the future of energy. They review some key points that caught their attention, including an outlook for abundant energy supply in the latter part of the 2020s, peak fossil fuels by 2030, electricity’s growing role, and the adoption of EVs.
They also consider a few new EV labels: extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs) and range-extended electric vehicles (REEVs).
They also introduce Peter’s recent article on the proposed cap on Canada’s oil and gas emissions.
UN Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air…please! (October 2024)UN “It’s Climate Crunch Time” video about three future scenarios, including game over (October 2024)IEA World Energy Outlook 2024Peter Tertzakian’ s commentary “It’s time for a carbon policy time-out (November 2024)
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This week, our guest is Chris Levesque, President and CEO of TerraPower. Founded by Bill Gates, TerraPower is advancing fourth-generation nuclear reactor technology in the United States, using a Natrium reactor and molten salt. The company recently made the 2024 Fortune "Change the World" list.
Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Chris Levesque: What is a fourth-generation nuclear reactor, and how does it differ from the operating reactors in North America regarding safety, cost, and waste? Is the United States ahead of other countries in developing these fourth-generation nuclear reactors? What are the strategic benefits for the United States in developing this technology? How is this technology compatible with wind and solar electricity generation? What is the timeline for the regulatory and permitting process for the first facility? When do you expect to start up your first power plant in Wyoming? Does the uranium need to be enriched, and how will the waste be stored?
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On June 25th, 2024, Cedar LNG announced a positive final investment decision (FID) for a floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) facility with a nameplate capacity of 3.3 million tonnes per annum (~0.4 Bcf/d) located in the traditional territory of the Haisla Nation, near Kitimat, British Columbia, on Canada’s west coast. Commercial operation is expected by 2028, and the project will use the existing Coastal GasLink pipeline (also serving LNG Canada) to deliver natural gas from the production fields in British Columbia and Alberta. The project has an estimated cost of US$4 billion and will be majority-owned by the Haisla Nation. Their partner is Pembina Pipeline Corporation.
This week, our guests are Crystal Smith, Chief Councillor of the Haisla Nation, and Scott Burrows, President and Chief Executive Officer of Pembina Pipeline Corporation. They explain the project, the community support, the financing, the environmental review process, and, importantly, what this project means for the Haisla Nation’s economic future.
Other content referenced in this podcast:
Cedar LNG Announces Positive Final Investment Decision (June 25, 2024), scroll down to play the videoSee all videos about the project, including hearing from members of the Haisla Nation: Media Kit - Cedar LNGNational Bank paper making a case for a global GHG reduction from growing Canadian LNG Exports: “Canada Has a Vital Role in Deleveraging the Global Environmental Balance Sheet,” February 2024Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/
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This week on the podcast, Peter and Jackie reflect on the six years since the podcast started. With over 250 episodes and counting, they have commented on a range of topics and events shaping the energy industry in Canada and beyond.
In this episode, Peter and Jackie reflect on the podcasts and events that have stayed with them over the past six years and the topics that keep arising, including divestment and energy security. They also discuss their philosophy of interviewing guests.
Special thanks to the loyal ARC Energy Ideas podcast listeners and to Beau Shiminsky at Ear Candy, our sound engineer since day one.
Content referenced in this podcast:
Energyphile stories on Apple (Audio only)Energyphile stories on the website (written and audio) Ear Candy StudioPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/
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This week, our guest is Andrew Miller, the Chief Operating Officer of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, which was established in 2014. The firm provides market prices, supply chain data, forecasting, and strategic advisory for energy transition technologies, including focused coverage on battery supply chains.
Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Andrew: How did the market for battery minerals flip so quickly from being undersupplied to oversupplied? How much lithium-ion battery demand comes from grid-scale storage versus EVs? Are you optimistic that the policies and subsidies introduced by the US and Canada will eventually create an EV supply chain comparable to China? Were you surprised by how fast battery chemistries changed when mineral prices were high? Are lithium-ion batteries below the $100/kWh level yet? With improved mineral availability, are automakers continuing to pursue vertical integration? Is it possible that deep-sea battery minerals could add more supply than expected?
Other content referenced on the podcast:
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence website: https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/
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This week, Peter and Jackie discuss recent news headlines. Here is what they explored:
Canadian Federal Politics. Last week was not the time for an election as the NDP and the Bloc Québécois did not support the Conservative Party of Canada’s motion for a carbon tax election. But when will the election be held, and what does a faster election mean for advancing new energy legislation and regulations?
Climate Week NYC is an annual event that focuses on addressing climate change. Peter and Jackie discuss the news that caught their attention while watching headlines from the week, including a nuclear energy renaissance. There is also a growing recognition that greenhouse gas emission reduction goals are not being achieved and that oil demand continues to grow.
Canadian Electricity Markets. Ottawa opened a consultation to consider adding a surtax on Chinese modules, semiconductors, batteries, and battery parts imported into Canada, similar to the 100% surtax on EVs introduced in the summer.
Electricity demand in Canada is growing. As a result, several provinces, including Ontario, British Columbia, and Quebec, have recently made calls to build new electricity generation plants. Alberta, however, is in the middle of an electricity market redesign that is, for now, making new investment in the province uncertain.
Oil Markets. While WTI oil price stayed in the $US75-85/B range for most of 2024, it fell to $US65/B on September 10th and recovered to $US68/B at the podcast recording time. Jackie and Peter discuss factors contributing to the weakness in oil prices.
Other content referenced in this podcast:
World Nuclear News: Constellation to restart Three Mile Island unit, powering Microsoft (September 2024)DCD: Oracle to build nuclear SMR-powered gigawatt data center (September 2024)Canada consults on measures to protect Canadian workers in critical manufacturing sectors from unfair Chinese trade practices (September 2024)Alberta AESO stakeholder feedback on potential strategic reserves Financial Times: Saudi Arabia ready to abandon $100 crude target to take back market share (September 2024)Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/
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So far this year, electric vehicle (EV) sales have been less than expected in the United States and Europe, but growth remains strong in China. Why is EV adoption slowing in North America, and what is different in China?
We examine the latest sales numbers and the factors that could be contributing to slower growth in North America. Factors include a lack of charging infrastructure, the high cost of fast charging, high depreciation, and a current shortage of plug-in hybrid options. EV competitiveness with gasoline cars, especially in the compact car segments, remains an issue.
To help us with the conversation, our guest this week is Lawrence Romanosky, a Calgary-based 'car guy' with 20 years of experience as a luxury car sales manager. Lawrence was responsible for the first rollout of the Porsche Taycan all-electric car at the dealership in Calgary in 2019. Check out his auto blog and website here.
Content referenced in this podcast:
LUGNUTZ self-service facility for automotive enthusiasts Wall Street Journal “What Scared Ford’s CEO in China,” Sept 14, 2024 Article from Spectrum News on a study from iSeeCars.com “EVs depreciate more than any other vehicle type, study says,” November 2023 AAA Newsroom “Your Driving Costs: The Price of a New Car Ownership Continues to Climb,” September 2024, includes a special analysis comparing the cost of EV and hybrid ownership to gas-poweredElectrek “BYD $10,000 Seagull EV was the top-selling car in China last month,” September 2024Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/
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This week, our guest is the Honourable Christy Clark, the 35th Premier of British Columbia and Canada’s longest-serving female Premier. Christy Clark is currently a Senior Advisor for Bennett Jones LLP.
Politics is top of mind for energy decision-makers with the upcoming US election, Canadian federal by-elections, the possibility of an early federal election in Canada, and a provincial election next month in Christy Clark’s home province of British Columbia.
Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Christy Clark:
Are you surprised that the NDP has been slipping in the polls in BC? Explain the BC United Party (former BC Liberal Party) recently folding into the Conservative Party of BC. Is there potential for the provincial Conservative Party to win in BC next month? Is climate change still an important issue for BC voters? You worked to get BC’s LNG industry started, with over 15 potential projects expected at one point; what is your view on the industry now? Is more electrical generation capacity needed to meet future demand, besides the Site C hydro dam? Now that it has started, how do people feel about the Trans Mountain expansion oil pipeline? With the federal NDP ripping up their agreement to cooperate with the Liberals, do you expect the federal election will occur sooner than October 2025? What are the chances that Justin Trudeau will withdraw from the federal Liberal leadership before the election? Do you have any federal political aspirations?
Content referenced in this podcast:
Current polling of BC provincial election at 388canada.comPlease review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/
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This week, our guest is Rob West, founder and CEO of Thunder Said Energy. Founded in 2019, the research firm aims to help decision-makers find economic opportunities in the energy transition. Rob lives nine time zones away in Estonia and is an uber-productive energy expert who covers a wide range of topics in his consultancy.
Rob explains why he hates S-curves, since they are often used to assume future growth rates for new energy technologies instead of properly analyzing what is realistic.
Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Rob: What do you think of the recent sell-off of clean energy stocks and the reasons behind some company failures? How much do you think the electricity demand will grow due to AI? Will there be investment in new natural gas-fired generation to meet this demand growth, despite the concerns about carbon emissions? Why do you think solar is the most important energy source in the world? Why do you see power grids as the biggest bottleneck in the energy transition? Do you think naturally found hydrogen in the earth’s subsurface, also called “gold hydrogen,” could be the next “gold rush”?
Thunder Said Energy website, see past research notes and sign up for daily email: https://thundersaidenergy.com/ FT article “More cleantech companies fail as fundraising challenges emerge (ft.com),” September 2, 2024
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So long summer! Peter and Jackie are back in the studio and are discussing the energy news from the past few months.
They kick off the podcast by discussing political developments in the United States and Canada. Then, they examine the drop in clean energy stocks over the summer and the weaker market sentiment, including the rapid decline in BC's low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) credit price. Lastly, they discuss the low prices for natural gas in Alberta, which averaged only $C 0.60/GJ in August.
McKinsey and Company “The Energy Transition: Where are we, really” (August 27, 2024) Canary Media “US Clean Energy Investment is Soaring Thanks to Climate Law” (August 16 2024) and Clean Investment Monitor: Q2 Update BC Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) price history, scroll to the Credit Market Data Section to download. ExxonMobil Global Outlook: Our view to 2050 (August 2024)
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This week, we are joined by Nancy Southern, Chair & Chief Executive Officer of ATCO Ltd., and Chair & Chief Executive Officer of Canadian Utilities Limited, an ATCO Company. ATCO is a publicly traded company that offers innovative and sustainable solutions to customers in various sectors, such as housing, real estate, energy, water, transportation, and agriculture.
Canadian Government’s Clean Fuel Regulations Credit Market Report (June 2024)
Under Nancy's leadership, ATCO is growing the EnPower division, which focuses on energy transition and includes hydrogen, CCS, water, energy storage, solar, wind, and hydro.
Peter and Jackie asked Nancy: How did ATCO start and what are the business lines today? How do you continue your father's legacy and the corporate culture he established? Tell us about your Alberta hydrogen project and the potential for exporting hydrogen to Asia. Update us on ATCO’s recent final investment decision (FID) on the Atlas Carbon Storage Hub in partnership with Shell. What are your views on the federal government's proposed Clean Electricity Regulations (CER) to achieve net zero electricity by 2035? What is your perspective on Alberta's proposed changes to renewable power development, electricity markets, and transmission costs?
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This week, on our Calgary Stampede podcast edition, our guest is Avik Dey, President and Chief Executive Officer of Capital Power. Capital Power is a publicly traded North American power producer headquartered in Edmonton, Alberta. Capital Power owns renewable and thermal power generation facilities, totaling over 9 GW of power generation capacity across 32 facilities.
Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Avik: Is it possible to deliver clean, reliable, and affordable electricity? Does Capital Power currently generate any electricity from coal? Do you expect small modular reactors (SMRs) to be built in Alberta in the future? Texas generates a greater share of its electricity from renewables than Alberta, yet Alberta is hitting the brakes on renewable development – how is Texas managing the increase in renewables, and what can Alberta learn? Are you concerned by the potential for rapid growth in electricity demand to fuel AI data centers in Alberta? Why did Capital Power recently cancel its proposed $2.4 billion Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Genesee project in Alberta? Considering the draft Clean Electricity Regulations, would you still invest in new natural gas generation in Canada? Any comments on Quebec’s plan to build and operate large-scale renewable projects in the province versus procuring the power from independent power producers?
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On June 20, 2024, Bill C-59 received Royal Assent and officially became law, implementing its provisions into Canadian legislation. The Bill, along with Bill C-69, which was passed on the same day, introduced new subsidies to encourage investment in clean energy in Canada. Bill C-59 established the Clean Technology Investment Tax Credit and Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage Tax Credit. Bill C-69 created the Federal Indigenous Loan Guarantee, the Clean Technology Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit, and the Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit.
Osler’s detailed multi-part guide on the Competition Act amendments, with a specific section on deceptive marketing practices and greenwashing, here. Text of Bill C-59, see 74.01 (1), including (b.1) and (b.2) Form to provide feedback to the Competition Bureau on the amendments to the Act Kevin Krausert opinion “Ottawa’s anti-greenwashing bill will cripple cleantech innovation” (June 20, 2024)
However, the positive impact of these new subsidies was overshadowed by the greenwashing regulations added late in the process for Bill C-59. The new greenwashing rules amend the Competition Act to require that claims made by companies about environmental, ecological, or climate change benefits can be verified. Because of the ambiguity of what is needed to comply with the rules, many energy companies have deleted all GHG emissions and other sustainability content from their websites, including annual sustainability reports and commitments to improve environmental performance in the future.
This week on the podcast, our guest, Kaeleigh Kuzma, a Partner at Osler in the Competition, Trade, and Foreign Investment Group, explained the new greenwashing rules.
Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie asked Kaeleigh: Why is greenwashing included in the Competition Act? Can you explain the provisions? What does “proper substantiation in accordance with internationally recognized methodology” mean? Why are the rules so vague, and what is the process for clarity? Do these rules only affect oil and gas and other heavy-emitting companies, or do they also apply to clean energy companies? What is the process for filing a complaint against a company to the Competition Bureau? What are the methods of enforcement?
Other content referenced in this podcast:
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This week on the podcast, our guest is Stephen Poloz, former Governor of the Bank of Canada, Author, Special Advisor at Osler, and recently appointed by Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland to lead a working group to explore how to catalyze greater domestic investments by Canada’s pension funds.
This is Stephen's second appearance on the podcast. The first was in 2022 after he released his book The Next Age of Uncertainty.
Here are some of the questions Jackie and Peter asked Stephen: What precipitated the thesis that Canadian pensioners are better off with more investment in Canada? What can you say about the pension investment working group, the deliverable you are working towards, and the potential timing? Why has inflation been so persistent in Canada and globally? What are your expectations for Canadian interest rate announcements in the future? Carolyn Rogers, senior deputy governor of the Bank of Canada, recently said in a speech, it's time to “break the glass” and respond to Canada's productivity “emergency” – do you agree that productivity is an emergency? How important is free trade with the United States for Canada’s economy? What are your thoughts on the Canadian government committing tens of billions of dollars to support the EV sector in Canada? Are you concerned about Canada’s ongoing deficit budgets and growing debt levels?
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This week, our guest is David Hobbs, Executive Chairman of Pantheon Resources PLC and Chairman of Proton Green LLC. David has an extensive background in energy research, having served as Head of Research at King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research (KAPSARC) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and as Chief Energy Strategist at IHS CERA (now part of S&P Global Commodities Insights).
Remarkable digital notepad Roger Pielke Jr. from the University of Colorado Vaclav Smil, Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba
The podcast is a new game-style format this week, where Jackie and David engaged in a lively debate on some of the big issues in energy, with Peter as the moderator. Some topics they discussed include: How would a second Trump presidency affect NATO's future? How do the US presidential candidates differ in terms of energy policy? When is the end of oil? How would a Pierre Poilievre-led Conservative Party of Canada alter energy policy in Canada? How are the Middle East and Ukraine conflicts impacting the oil market? How will AI impact the future of energy? What will be the next acronym after ESG? Should any change be expected as the UN Climate meetings mark the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement?
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According to the IEA, heat accounts for almost half of final global energy consumption, with approximately two-thirds currently sourced from hydrocarbons. Net zero energy scenarios anticipate that heating can be predominantly electrified.
In pursuit of lower-carbon buildings, high-efficiency air-source heat pumps offer a promising decarbonization and energy reduction solution. Further, the Canadian federal government and some provinces support the transition to air-source heat pumps by subsidizing their purchases.
In this episode, Jackie and Peter review the ARC Energy Research Institute’s analysis of heat pumps for northern climates like Canada. Danielle Vitoff, Director of Energy Transition, Sustainability, and Infrastructure at Guidehouse, a global consulting firm, joins the discussion.Key questions covered in this podcast include: How do air-source heat pumps operate, and what makes them so efficient? Why does the efficiency of a heat pump decline in colder temperatures? How do heat pumps' upfront capital and operating costs compare to alternatives like natural gas or fuel oil furnaces? How could broad-scale switching to electric heat pumps affect the electricity grid? Considering the cold climate, are air-source heat pumps a good fit for Canada?
CAPP Data Centre US residential heat pumps: the private economic potential and its emissions, health, and grid impacts (Source: US Department of Energy) Pathways for British Columbia to Achieve its GHG Reduction Goals (Source: Guidehouse, prepared for Fortis BC)
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This week, our guest is Jennifer Williams, President and CEO of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro. Hydro manages Newfoundland and Labrador’s electricity system, generating and transmitting most of the province's electricity, and exporting electricity to other parts of Canada and the United States.
The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) commissioned a report on the economic impact of the federal government’s proposed oil gas emissions cap on the conventional oil and gas industry Muskrat Falls Inquiry Website Supreme Court of Canada Judgment: Churchill Falls (Labrador) Corp. v. Hydro‑Québec
Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro operates several hydroelectric plants, including the Churchill Falls Generation Station in Labrador, which has a capacity of nearly 5,500 MW and is among the top ten hydro dams in the world outside of China. The utility has also recently commissioned Muskrat Falls, with a capacity of 824 MW.
Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Jennifer: What percentage of the electricity generated in the province is exported? Is Muskrat Falls operating at full capacity now, including the undersea transmission lines? What were some of the reasons for the high cost of Muskrat Falls? Can you discuss Churchill Falls, the technical achievement of building the project, and the contract that set a low power price for 70 years? How much potential is there to develop additional generation in the province? Do you anticipate green hydrogen projects operating in the region? From your perspective, why was the Atlantic Loop transmission project scaled back? Are you concerned about the draft Clean Electricity Regulations legislation, which proposes net- zero electricity by 2035?
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Despite frequent pronouncements that the world should stop using coal, it still consumes vast amounts of black rocks. According to the Energy Institute’s Statistical Review of World Energy, coal's global primary energy consumption was about 15% above natural gas in 2022 and only 15% lower than crude oil.
Coal consumption has yet to decline. Instead, coal use has plateaued for the better part of the last decade. Because of its carbon intensity and large consumption, Peter and Jackie describe coal as the “herd of elephants” in the room for meeting aggressive decarbonization and climate goals under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
This week, our guest is Lara Dong, Senior Director, Global Coal Research, S&P Global Commodity Insights. Lara explains why coal demand has been resilient and what to expect in the future.
Here are some of the questions Peter and Jackie ask Lara: Is coal consumption expected to stay strong? Why is China still building new coal power plants? How does this compare to clean electricity additions in China, including wind, solar, and hydro? Is there still ongoing new investment in coal mines to add supply? Why was 2021 a pivotal year for Chinese energy policy? How did the 2022 energy crisis impact China’s and India’s energy policy for coal? Do you think the IEA Net Zero scenario, which assumes a 90% drop in coal consumption by 2050, is likely? If Canada were to increase its LNG exports to Asia, would this decrease coal consumption (and greenhouse gas emissions) in the region?
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