Folgen
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Chris Miller of Chip War and Lennart Heim of RAND check in on the geopolitics of AI. We explore:
Chinese labs' algorithmic progress (surprising to everyone but regular ChinaTalk listeners!)
The geopolitical implications of scaling on test time compute
What is and isn't working with US export controls
And a whole lot more this was a great episode!
The CSET report I referenced: https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/chinas-sti-operations/
Chris and Lennart's ChinaTalk in early 2023 https://www.chinatalk.media/p/ai-compute-101-the-geopolitics-of
Outtro music: japanese citypop producers collaborating Beijinger Cheng Fangyuan in the 80s! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=403GCMhZ89Q&ab_channel=Heatwolves itself a cover of this Japanese track but better than the original https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyjnkuhRfJA&ab_channel=PopBULL
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We’ll be getting into the biggest tv show of 2024, a celebrity road trip “will they or won’t they divorce” show which is just as big of a hot mess as it sounds like, rigged nationalist singing competitions, megacorp boy idol capitalism corrupting something as seemingly innocent as a farming reality show, and xinjiang-set tv hit drama.
Our guest today is Em who writes Active Faults, one of my favorite substacks that explores the China’s entertainment industry and celebrity fandom. It is a consistently dark read but one of my favorite discoveries this year. https://activefaults.substack.com/
Puttro music: one of those foreigners who showed up the Chinese singers in 歌手， China's 'The Voice" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMpnuYBcA_I
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Fehlende Folgen?
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Nathan Lambert of the excellent https://www.interconnects.ai/ newsletter and the Allen Institute joins the pod for a rundown of the biggest AI stories of this year and next. We also talk about what he's learned training advanced AI models at the Allen Institute.
Outtro Music: Young and Holtful by Young-Holt Unlimited, 1969. https://open.spotify.com/track/5am0dV7aB91Q6sWqIAuurA?autoplay=true
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Commerce released its much-anticipated chip export-control updates yesterday, December 2. But today's guests are unimpressed.
But are we right to have hoped for more? To discuss, I’m joined by Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis and Greg Allen from CSIS.
A disclaimer: We recorded this yesterday the same day the regs were released, and given their complexity our takes are inevitably provisional.
We get into:
What’s in the new controls: high bandwidth memory, FDPR, and the Entity List.
Why key assumptions in Biden’s approach to export controls limited
How China’s stockpiling spree may have already rendered these new rules partially obsolete, and what policymakers can do about that going forward.
The law-enforcement approach vs. the counterintelligence approach, and whether export controls should be a foreign-policy tool or simply a law-enforcement activity.
How the new chip controls are like removing puzzle pieces just one at a time — and why that’s exactly what China wants.
The “America First” rationale for domestic chip production.
Why the Democrats’ regulatory design philosophy has favored massive complexity to the detriment of enforcement — and what the Trump administration might do differently going forward.
Outtro music:
From the Netherlands! Mensen by Josine Van Dalsum https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=igRkp_03UHk
From Japan! Yadokari - Meiko Kaji https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJG2Wozor94
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Dylan Patel, Doug O'Laughlin, Jon from Asianometry and I all chat the biggest semiconductor stories of the year. We get into energy demands for datacenters, Intel, Samsung, Nvidia, SMIC, Huawei, Deepseek and the rise of ChatGPT.
Outtro music: Sabicas, Carcelera (Reflejo Andaluz) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L2_nX21D8Go
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Few books have influenced me as much as the Makers of Modern Strategy series. The three volumes (published in 1942, 1986, and 2023) are indispensable to understanding statecraft, leadership, and the evolution of warfare across millennia.
The New Makers of Modern Strategy (2023) is a thousand pages long and analyzes strategy from ancient Greece to the Congo.
The man behind this behemoth collection is Hal Brands, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a returning ChinaTalk guest.
In our conversation, we discuss:
The process for compiling such an ambitious collection of essays;
Unique insights and new topics covered in the 2023 edition, including Tecumseh, Kabila in the Congo, and Strategies of Equilibrium in 17th Century France;
Advice for reading the book effectively;
Revolutions in military affairs, from the atom bomb to quantum computers.
For reference, you can compare the content of the three volumes with this spreadsheet, courtesy of Nicholas Welch.
Outtro music: When This Cruel War is Over (Civil War ballad by Hermes Nye) https://open.spotify.com/track/1Zjcz6B4PromuFFXMWu8hK?si=500b718d8361421b
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To discuss the Department of Justice’s new proposed rule on data security, we interviewed two brilliant guests from the ChinaTalk Hall of Fame — DOJ National Security Division attorneys Lee Licata and Devin DeBacker.
Before DOJ, Lee was an attorney at DHS and then CBP, while Devin was a partner at Kirkland & Ellis and then worked with the Office of White House Counsel. Today we’ll be discussing the DOJ’s new proposed rule on data security.
We get into…
DOJ’s plan to protect your data from foreign adversaries,
How public comments have shaped the proposed rule since the last time we interviewed Lee and Devin,
DOJ’s tools for enforcing corporate compliance,
The differences between data security regulations, privacy laws, and export controls,
Why some public comments get accepted and some get rejected,
The DOJ playbook for assembling a dream team of talented bureaucrats.
Thanks to Nicholas Welch for hosting this interview!
Outtro music: Bad Boys (Theme from Cops) (Youtube link) + Everybody Loves the Sunshine (Takuya Kuroda) (YouTube)
Submit comments here.
Check out our last show about the DOJ's data security rule here.
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Antoine, aka 多多底料, is a French Mandarin teacher by day and a Chinese rap enthusiast by night. Today, he’s here with a setlist of his favorite hip hop tracks. His original songs can be found here. Bonne écoute!
Track 1: 芳草地 (The Fragrant Meadow) by DIGI GHETTO (艾志恒Asen/thomeboydontkill/mac ova seas/KIV/Mula Sakee/付思遥)
Track 2: 威远故事 (The Story of Weiyuan County) by GAI周延
Track 3: 变蓝 (Turning Blue) by 也是福 (Eddie Beatz) feat. PO8 and 喜辰晨
Track 4: 亚特兰蒂斯陷落 (Atlantis Surrenders) by 弗兰德斯坦/C-Low
Track 5: 春雪采耳 (Ear Cleanse In The Spring Snow) by 施鑫文月 and 小老虎 (Lil Tiger)
Track 6: THE MESSAGE PT.2 by CREAM D and 艾热AIR
Track 7: 落幕 (Sunset) by Asen (feat. GALI, 堵琳Caroline)
Track 8: 囚 (Cage) by 李佳隆 (JelloRio)
Track 9: 恨与爱 (Hate and Love) by AThree
Track 10: 不负责 (Why u blame on me?) by Capper and (ﾉI A I)ﾉ♡
Track 11: 危险派对 by 王以太
Links to all these songs can be found on the ChinaTalk Substack.
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ChinaTalk columnist Alexa Pan and Jake Newby of the China music substack Concrete Avalanche (https://jakenewby.substack.com/)
No election content whatsoever!
1. 'Hohhot Aquarium' - NarrowLaneAngel 窄巷天使
One of the stand-out acts from the Kind of Shoegaze Vol. 1 compilation focused on young Chinese bands that was released at the start of the year, NarrowLaneAngel formed in Inner Mongolia in 2023. In August of that year, they released an eponymous debut EP.
2. 'Limpid' - Forsaken Autumn
Based in Shanghai, Forsaken Autumn have been together since 2011, propelled by the talents of britlulu (who also founded the East Asia Shoegaze Festival) and singer Ecke Wu. Released at the tail-end of 2015, Forsaken Autumn’s record Whenere — dubbed “the Chinese Loveless” by one commenter on Bandcamp — is a classic in Chinese shoegaze circles.
3. 'Nostalgia' - Summer Daze
Founded in 2021, Summer Daze are another band who featured on the Kind of Shoegaze compilation series from Amemoyo. After a couple of early EPs, they've put out four new singles over the course of this year.
4. 'Firework' - The White Tulips
Xiamen music scene stalwart Chen Zhenchao (also known as Soda) has moved away from shoegaze into surf-rock and dream- and city-pop territory with his more recent projects, but in 2015 he and his band The White Tulips delivered the decidedly shoegazey Fondle. It’s re-release on vinyl in 2021 was a nod to its status as a Chinese shoegaze classic.
5. 'Float' - Chocland.doc 巧克力文件岛
Hebei five piece Chocland.doc apparently first came together at a former residence of Eileen Chang, but are seemingly yet to write a song based on Lust, Caution or any of her other novels. "Of course, the name of the band has no meaning," they say, "what you understand is what you understand."
6. 'Is your dream still out-focus' - Lunacid
Another one of China's newer shoegaze acts, Lunacid were formed in 2023. The trio hail from Changsha and also featured on the Kind of Shoegaze compilation series.
7. '迷航' ('Dazedtrek') - 哲学思潮 (Philosophy Currents)
Formed just last year, 哲学思潮 hail from Nanning in Guangxi province, near the border with Vietnam. Their debut album Dazedtrek was recently made available on Bandcamp.
8. 'Detached' - The Numen
Shanghai-based quartet The Numen met on arts review platform Douban and have pursued a shared love of shoegaze and indie-rock since the summer of 2023. They namecheck shoegaze greats such as My Bloody Valentine's Kevin Shields among their influences.
9. 'Cat Tenant (Summer)' - Baby Formula
Formed by “three boring people with no expectations for the unknown journey ahead”, Beijing band Baby Formula came seemingly out of nowhere, dropped an impressive eponymous debut album in the autumn of 2013, and then promptly disappeared again. Still, their music continues to resonate over a decade later.
10. 'star' - Dear Eloise
As frontman for long-running band PK14, Yang Haisong is one of the godfathers of Chinese post-punk. Yet he’s also played a pivotal role in bringing more experimental, noisy, and yes, shoegazey sounds to the fore. Formed in 2007 with his wife (and one-time PK14 bassist) Sun Xia, Dear Eloise have released a string of atmospheric records over the years and remain an influential act in China.
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Why did the Soviet Union collapse? Which lessons from Cold War history are relevant for China’s future?
To discuss the successes, failures, and strategies of Soviet leaders, ChinaTalk interviewed Yakov Feygin. Feygin is the author of Building a Ruin: The Cold War Politics of Soviet Economic Reform, which examines how various Soviet leaders, institutions, and economists attempted to boost Soviet growth and national power.
Co-hosting today is Jon Sine, writer of the Cogitations substack.
We discuss:
The strengths and limitations of the Stalinist economic model,
Khrushchev’s shift to “peaceful competition” with capitalism,
Alternative policy paths that could have saved the Soviet Union,
How technological optimism shaped Soviet reform efforts, inspiring the CCP in the process,
Parallels between the institutions of the Soviet Union and those of contemporary China,
The battle between political scientists and historians when analyzing the political economy of authoritarian states.
Outro music: Building a Ruin - Skyclad (Youtube link)
Links to all the books and papers referenced in this show are available on the ChinaTalk substack.
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林宏文是《晶片島上的光芒》一書的作者,這本書深入探討了台積電的歷史、管理方法和國際角色。作為台灣最資深的半導體記者之一、林宏文以其三十多年的行業經驗,為讀者呈現了一個全面而生動的台灣半導體產業發展故事。
訪談中、主要討論了以下幾個關鍵話題:
台積電的創立背景及其在全球半導體產業中的獨特定位
台灣政府在推動半導體產業發展中的角色,特別是工研院和科學園區的貢獻
台積電的管理模式,包括研發與製造部門的平衡以及人才培養策略
台灣半導體產業的國際競爭力,尤其是與三星等競爭對手的比較
台積電在全球地緣政治中的角色,以及"矽盾"這一概念的由來和影響
AI時代對半導體產業的影響,特別是對記憶體和邏輯晶片整合的需求
台灣與美國在看待國際關係上的差異,以及這種差異對台灣國際戰略的影響
Special thanks to the host of this interview, Arrian Ebrahimi of the Chip Capitols substack. Cohosted by ChinaTalk editors Nicholas Welch and Lily Ottinger.
Outtro music: Right Here Waiting, by Richard Marx. Youtube Link.
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Welcome back to part two of our interview with Yasheng Huang 黄亚生, the author of The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline.
We cover a lot of ground in this two-hour installment. During the first hour, we discuss…
The aspects of imperial China’s governance Mao chose to embrace, and those he chose to abandon,
The factors enabling Mao’s radical policies compared to imperial rulers,
Why China was able to grow so much faster than India, despite the setbacks of the Cultural Revolution,
Statistical approaches for evaluating the effectiveness of autocratic development models,
China’s economic reforms and rural development policies in the 1980s,
How the events of 1989 permanently altered China’s trajectory,
Whether the rise of Xi Jinping was inevitable,
In the second hour, we discuss...
The Steelman case for why China needed a leader like Xi Jinping,
What sets Xi apart from his predecessors,
Succession challenges and the importance of term limits in authoritarian states,
Why engagement with China failed to produce political liberalization,
How the US could have better leveraged economic relations with China,
Creative approaches to human rights advocacy in China.
Outro music: Nothing to My Name (一无所有) by Cui Jian (崔健) (Youtube Link)
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Yasheng Huang 黄亚生 is the author of one of the decade’s greatest books about China — The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline. It’s a rich book, a product of a career of reflections, with each page delivering something novel and provocative.
In this first half of our two-part interview, we discuss…
How the imperial examination system (known as keju) shaped Chinese governance, culture, and society,
Why autocratic Chinese dynasties benefitted from a meritocratic bureaucracy,
Statistical methods for analyzing social mobility in imperial China,
How the keju system survived the Mongol conquest,
What the tradeoffs in the imperial exam system can teach us about the future economic prospects of China and Taiwan.
Co-hosting today is Ilari Mäkelä, host of the On Humans podcast.
NOTES (Courtesy of Ilari)
A Rough Timeline of Chinese history:
Pre–221 BCE: Disunity (e.g. Warring States)
221 BCE – 220: Unity (Qin & Han dynasties)
220 – 581: Disunity (“Han-Sui Interregnum”)
581 – 1911: Unity (Sui, Tang, Song, Yuan, Ming, and Qing Dynasties)
Historical figures
Emperor Wanli 萬曆帝 | Shen Kuo 沈括 (polymath) | Zhu Xi 朱熹 (classical philosopher) | Hong Xiuquan 洪秀全 (leader of the Taiping Rebellion) | Yuan Shikai 袁世凯 (military leader) | Chiang Kai-shek 蔣介石 (military leader and statesman)
Modern scholars
Ping-ti Ho 何炳棣 (historian) | Clair Yang (economist) | Joseph Needham (scientist and historian) | Daron Acemoglu | James Robinson
Historical terms
Keju civil service exams | Taiping Rebellion
REFERENCES
A lot of the original data discussed in the episode is original from Huang’s book. As an exception, Huang references his co-authored article on civil service exams and imperial stability, written with Clair Yang.
Outtro music: 等着你回来 by 白光, a 1930s Shanghai starlet https://open.spotify.com/track/0aHMT9dIdPDz094fc37Xq0?si=d1591ff2339d421c
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To discuss America’s comparative advantages in national competition and the structural forces that drive (and limit) innovation, ChinaTalk interviewed Kumar Garg.
Formerly an Obama official in the Office of Science and Technology Policy, Kumar spent several years at Schmidt Futures focusing on science and technology philanthropy. He has been a mentor and cheerleader for ChinaTalk over the years, and he is the president of the newly established Renaissance Philanthropy.
We discuss:
The inspiration behind Renaissance Philanthropy and its focus on mid-scale, field-transforming ideas
Strategies for identifying underexplored, high-impact projects — including weather forecasting, carbon sequestration, and datasets on neurocognition
Structural challenges for R&D funding at the level of government and universities
The role of focused research organizations like OpenAI in accelerating progress and understanding long-term drivers of productivity
A wide angle-view of US-China competition and strategic innovation
The underresearched importance of alliance management.
Outtro music:
Song 1 - If ye love me - Thomas Tallis and the Cambridge Singers (Youtube Link)
Song 2 - Recercare (I) - Francesco Spinacino and Robert Meunier (Youtube Link)
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Michael Collins is the acting chair of the National Intelligence Council (NIC). He has spent 28 years in the intelligence community, starting as a career analyst in the CIA focused on East Asia before moving into leadership roles. He served as chief of staff for the CIA deputy director and worked on modernization efforts in the agency.
We discuss…
How the intelligence community informs high-level policymaking,
Why different institutional approaches are needed to collect intelligence on non-state actors vs nation-state adversaries,
Challenges in assessing China’s technological and military capabilities,
“Narrative Intelligence” and areas where intelligence agencies have a unique edge,
Strategies for improving long-term forecasting and avoiding groupthink.
Outro music: Scorpions - Wind Of Change (Youtube Link)
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To discuss the post-election future of US competition policy, ChinaTalk interviewed Peter Harrell and Nazak Nikakhtar.
Nazak served in the Trump administration after a long career as a civil servant, where she was instrumental in shaping the Commerce Department’s work on China, first at the International Trade Administration and later leading the Bureau of Industry and Security. Peter worked in the Biden administration on the National Economic Council and National Security Council, focusing on international economics, export controls, and investment restrictions.
We discuss…
The role of the executive in setting the industrial policy agenda
Leadership shortcomings in the Biden and Trump administrations
Competition with China — bipartisan consensus, bureaucratic inertia, and strategies to stop wasting time.
Advice for America’s next president, from export controls to pharmaceutical decoupling and alliance management
Creative approaches to supply chain resilience
This is 2023 CSET report Jordan referenced (See the “Understanding the Intangibles section)
Outtro Music: Jun Mayuzumi - Black Room (Youtube Link)
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Jeffrey Ding is a professor at George Washington University, leading US scholar on China’s AI, and the creator of the ChinAI Substack. In honor of the publication of his new book, Technology and the Rise of Great Powers, enjoy this interview with Jeff from the ChinaTalk archives.
Jeff Ding argues in a 2023 paper that great powers must harness general-purpose technologies if they want to achieve global dominance. That is, diffusion capacity (not just innovation capacity) is critical to economic growth — and China actually fares much worse in diffusion capacity than mainstream narratives imply.
In this show, we discuss the historical underpinnings of that argument and apply it to AI today — drawing out policymaking lessons spanning centuries of technologically driven great power transitions. We also get into:
Why long-term productivity growth is driven by the diffusion of general-purpose technology, and what makes this so crucial for great power competition;
Historical lessons from the UK, Soviet Union, US, and Germany illustrating the cultural and policy roadblocks to tech diffusion;
The importance of decentralized systems, and how this helped America win the Cold War
Why China’s diffusion capacity lags behind its innovation capacity, and how America should avoid getting locked into any one technological trajectory.
Co-hosting is Teddy Collins, formerly of DeepMind and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.
Outro music: 分享那奇沃夫/Prodby玉的单曲《亚克西》(Youtube Link)
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Thanks to The Innovation Alliance for sponsoring this episode. The Innovation Alliance is a coalition of research and development-based technology companies representing innovators, patent owners, and stakeholders who believe in the critical importance of maintaining a strong patent system that supports innovative enterprises of all sizes.
To discuss the domestic and international implications of patent policy, ChinaTalk interviewed Brian Pomper. Brian was the Chief International Trade Counsel to Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, and he is now a partner at Akin Gump.
We discuss:
The history of America’s innovation hegemony, from the signing of the Constitution to patent trolls and Elon Musk
Why big tech companies spent decades systematically attacking the foundations of the US patent system
The thermonuclear patent war of Apple vs Samsung
The evolution of Standard Essential Patents (SEPs) as a battleground for emerging tech competition
Why China’s approach to patent litigation is causing controversy in Europe
The intersection of patent policy and international trade agreements.
Outtro music: Minitel Rose - Magic Powder (Youtube Link)
Here's the 2-hour show on global tech standards from the ChinaTalk archives: Global Standards: What's the Deal? Spotify link, Apple Podcasts Link
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Here at ChinaTalk, we break the ice on all things international relations, and today we are diving into a topic that is snow joke — icebreakers!
We interviewed William Henagan and Robert Obayda, both directors of the NSC. We discuss:
How Canada, Finland, and the United States are leveling up their cooperation in the Arctic through the Icebreaker Collaboration Effort (ICE Pact);
The mechanics of industrial policy in the US government;
Why cranes matter for national security, and the benefits of using carrots vs sticks;
What icebreakers are for, and how Finland is punching above its weight in the NATO alliance.
Co-hosting today is former ChinaTalk intern Alexander Boyd, who is currently at the China Digital Times.
Outtro music: Arctic Monkeys — A Certain Romance (link) and Mardy Bum (link)
Pictured: the Russian icebreaker Yamal.
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Chris Kirchhoff was a founding member of the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU) and previously worked in the Obama NSC. He recently published a book called Unit X: How the Pentagon and Silicon Valley Are Transforming the Future of War. He wrote:
“To the extent present military and civilian leadership is articulating its strategy, it is one built, for the most part, on a continuation of previous programmatic and budgetary trendlines. If there is a strategy for losing a future war in China, this is it.”
Unit X traces the evolution of the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), a group of Pentagon insurgents who are fighting to change how the DoD relates to emerging technologies.
We discuss:
The origin story of DIU and its early struggles to break Pentagon bureaucracy;
How DIU leveraged “waiver authority” to circumvent red tape under Defense Secretary Ash Carter;
Why the defense industrial base is ill-equipped to keep pace with technological change;
The case for shifting more DoD spending to non-traditional tech companies;
Lessons from commercial spaceflight for future AI governance, including potential issues with a “Manhattan project for AI.”
Outtro music: 告五人 Accusefive - 愛人錯過 Somewhere in Time (Youtube Link)
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