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To celebrate Disorder’s One Year Anniversary, Alex and Jason recap the shows Greatest Hits, share their thoughts on their favourite guests; explain how their views of the world have changed over the last year; speculate on how today’s disorder is different from what came before; and disagree slightly agreeably about how the moral failings of the Anglo-American colonial empire of bygone days is or is not different from the Chinese and Russian empires of today. After proceeding through these reminiscences, we take listeners questions about Putin, AI, China, imperialism, how recording the podcast has changes how Jason and Alex see the world, and if there are any new orderers on the world stage.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links:
Listen to our first episode here: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/63ff389b562a075c49a81c86e239b85c
And listen to some of the other favourite episodes that this episode references,
With Bill Browder (on Navalny’s death): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a36160dede2b990a59c34c3c4e8eeece
With Evegenia Kara Murza (whose husband has just been released in the prisoner swap): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/8eff8cc4caece2708249ee7bec567ad8
With Miles Taylor (author of the famous Anonymous article in the NYT): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/42c97d2971c72d251b59b92d47d6c0ed
With Armen Sarkissian (the former President of Armenian - Part 1): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/380a900513c99b34f849e4d74119f46a
And the one containing arguably our greatest moment with Kurt Volker: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/f20a464df3a71e64f887891339b720dc
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From Putin to Qadhafi, from Mohammed bin Salman to Trump… our current era of Enduring Disorder is filled with many Tyrants and Tyrant-wannabes. But why do Tyrants tend to seek Disorder rather than Order? The answer appears to lie in Tyrants’ Endless Quest for Regime Security. Dictators have a marked predilection to put their own desire to cling to power in the short-and medium-term above all other considerations – even if that means deliberately making their countries’ economies and militaries inefficient or willfully spreading Disorder around the globe.
To discuss the deep connections between Tyranny and Disorder, we are joined by Marcel Dirsus, Jason’s old Oxford chum, former Libya-Analysis LLC contractor, and author of ‘How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive’. Marcel is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University and a member of the Standing Expert Committee on Terrorism and Interior Security at the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung.
Jason and Marcel dig into the psychology of tyrannical leaders and the structural factors that push tyrants to behave as they do. They explore the concept of the ‘selectorate’ — i.e. who really matters in a given society to keep the ruler in power. They explain how tyrannies have a much smaller and more elite ‘selectorate’ than democracies… this explains why pleasing these very few elites in the immediate term is the key variable required to keep dictators in power… and since those few pillars of regime support might flip at any moment, tyranny is actually an incredibly brittle form of government… and can actually collapse at any moment if its support pillars are removed
In the Ordering the Disorder section, Marcel and Jason urge democratic nations to realize the true extent of weakness prevalent in most dictatorships and target tyrants’ henchmen to help create a more Ordered globe.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
What is the Selectorate and what are the implications of ‘Selectorate Theory’ on how we understand international politics? oxfordre.com/politics/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-293
Get Marcel’s book at https://www.hachette.co.uk/titles/marcel-dirsus/how-tyrants-fall/9781399809481/
But if you want to actually learn about Libya rather than simply reading some kooky stories that Marcel includes about Qadhafi, get Jason’s book: https://globalenduringdisorder.com/
Read more about Marcel at https://www.economist.com/culture/2024/07/17/taking-on-the-global-brotherhood-of-despots
Visit his website https://www.marceldirsus.com/
Visit his substack https://thehundred.substack.com/
And for the reference to Nadav Safran’s ‘Saudi Arabia: The Ceaseless Quest for Security’: https://www.amazon.com/Saudi-Arabia-Ceaseless-Quest-Security/dp/0674789857
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Jason and Alex explain the implications for global order of the first, and possibly onl,y 2024 Presidential Candidates Debate btw Harris and Trump. It was like a legendary heavyweight boxing match between a woman auditioning to be the mega-orderer-in-chief and the most well established disorderer the world has ever scene. And it ended in a more dramatic fashion than even an epic Howard Cosell play-by-play: Down goes Frazier, Down goes Frazier. Trump acknowledged that he cannot go against Putin’s wishes, that he does not want the Ukrainians to win the war; and then when taunted by Kamala about the small ‘crowd-size’ at his rallies, Trump simply imploded: spewing grievance-filled conspiratorial lies about Haitian Migrants eating dogs in Springfield, Ohio, that Democrats order doctors to kill babies after birth, and that the Biden-Harris administration gives transgender transition surgeries to illegal aliens. We at the Disorder Pod don’t want to count chickens before they are hatched, but were both favourably surprised by Kamala’s performance. As we pointed out in Ep 65, she does portray herself in a rigid, prosecutorial vibe and has been weak at explaining the specifics of her programmes. She might play identity cards a bit much for some middle-aged white males. And yet!, Sept 10, 2024 may go down in history as the first time that an opposing politician beat Donald J. Trump at the game of television. Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Jeb Bush failed at it in the 2016 Republican Primary. Hillary and Biden may have won debates against him but they never beat him at the game of television. Whereas, Harris made Trump look like a buffoon and she successfully baited and taunted him on live TV before tens of millions. She made the contrast extremely clear: that she wishes to Order the American economy and the world, while Trump wishes to Disorder it. Show Notes Links: Read Alex’s Byline Times Article, ‘A Stumbling Trump Receives a Well-Deserved Shellacking at the First Presidential Debate’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/09/11/donald-trump-kamala-harris-debate-president-receives-shellacking-at-the-first-presidential-showdown/ Listen to Mehdi Hassan on the Guardian pod explain Gish-Galloping and how Donald Trump’s debate strategy usually works and how it can be (and was defeated): https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-in-focus/id1440133626?i=1000668961270 Listen to the 538 on the history Presidential Debates and how much they have swung the polls in the past: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/fivethirtyeight-politics/id1077418457?i=1000668933282 Listen to our take on Harris’s weaknesses with white men from yesterday here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3MtV4SS0QjAQGN5p9distS?go=1&sp_cid=40c19a23f8ed49573a18b2bb3c9b9b95&utm_source=embed_player_p&utm_medium=desktop&nd=1&dlsi=c462b99a0ae7432c Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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This week, Jason and Alex catchup after an eventful summer. Alex discusses her main takeaways from her trip to Tbilisi for the McCain forum, while Jason talks about his conversations back in New Jersey with real American voters. These conversations are giving him a pit in his stomach. His mounting concern is that Harris may fall into the Clinton trap – turning off traditionally Democratic voting white middle-aged men who are not from the coastal elite. Jason has been speaking to some ‘real Americans’ and hearing that they find Harris an uppity female lawyer, who doesn’t stand for anything, and who is too inauthentic to win the 2024 US Presidential election.
Pivoting away from this doom and gloom, the duo take listener questions. They look at how host countries could better assimilate migrants; whether Starmer should take a braver approach to push the UK back into the single market; how to stave off the rise in populist parties like AfD; how to push back against anti-Ukrainian conspiracy theories from one’s colleagues; and if a nationalised health system like the NHS can deliver ‘Ordering Solutions’ for its population or if the failure of the NHS at present showcases that state-led mega ordering is simply not possible in today’s world.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
Listen to our million downloads episode which was referenced numerous times, especially about Sweden, Privatization, health care, and assimilation/migration, https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/0c8bf88a4b5b3bfc2ba60f36c12bc4de
And for more on Harris and her problems being bold and landing with White men: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/cnn-political-director-warns-of-trouble-sign-for-harris-as-she-lags-with-white-male-voters-in-key-states/ar-AA1q3lkL
And her problems also surface with Hispanic voters, especially men: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/skeptical-voters-wrestle-know-kamala-harris-seen-donald-trump-rcna168784
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Harvey Whitehouse, author of Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World, rejoins Jason Pack for part 2 of their discussion. The duo discuss: whether nationalism can be used for good (rather than just as a calling card for Neo-Populists and disorderers); whether playing off of evolutionary biases towards in-group solidarity might be necessary to solve the collective action problems of today’s world, how putting policy creation in the hands of citizens assemblies might help us Order the Disorder; and what lessons traditional religiosity could teach us about creating Order.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
Get Harvey’s book, Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/451443/inheritance-by-whitehouse-harvey/9781529152227
For more on Harvey and his amazing breadth of research: https://www.harveywhitehouse.com/
Explore the ideas of Peter Turchin’s ‘Ultrasociety’: https://peterturchin.com/book/ultrasociety/
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Over the last two decades the seemingly ‘connecting’ phenomena of globalization and the internet have not made human communities more united. Seemingly paradoxically, aided by new technologies and interconnections, new forms of tribalism, superstition, in-group conformism, and out-group hatred have spread. Are these patterns of in-group solidarity and out-group distrust just the way humans are biologically wired to think?
In today’s episode, Jason Pack is joined by Harvey Whitehouse, Director of the Centre for the Study of Social Cohesion at Oxford University and author of Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World. Jason and Harvey explore: why cultivating a deeper understanding of evolutionary biology helps us explain the exact sociological appeal of strongmen like Putin and Trump; whether the decline in global religiosity has made societies less governable; and why the concept of identity fusion can shed light on how humans see their very essence of their being as part of a group and are willing to act collectively and selflessly to achieve what are perceived as shared interests.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
Get Harvey’s book, Inheritance: The Evolutionary Origins of the Modern World https://www.penguin.co.uk/books/451443/inheritance-by-whitehouse-harvey/9781529152227
For more on Harvey and his amazing breadth of research: https://www.harveywhitehouse.com/
Listen back to Claire York in ‘Ep39. What Role, if any, is there for Empathy in Ordering the Disorder?’ https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/ddabc397bd974b61f558504f5fff388f
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To celebrate ONE MILLION downloads (thanks mega orderers!), Jason is joined by his best friend and lecturer at the Swedish Defence College, Karl Karim Zakhour. The two ruminate on a host of topics including: the rather surprising interconnections between neo-liberal reforms in Sweden and Syria and what they tell us about our era of Global Enduring Disorder; whether 2004 was the worst year in geopolitics, but the best year to drink arak in Damascus; whether a certain kind of vulgar Hegelianism might just save us from the current disorder; and whether Kier Starmer might just have what it takes to be the antidote to the rise of the far-right authoritarians. The episode concludes with Jason taking stock of what he has learned from doing the Disorder pod by laying out his vision for the kind of global institutions needed to make a Global Enduring Order come into being while Karim explains why bottom-up organizing and more voluntary associations are also needed to help us Order the Disorder. Links: For more on Karim Zakhour and the Försvarshögskolan: https://www.fhs.se/sc/profile-page.html?identity=400.506a10b718cee96f44e50adb The Origins of AGE: From States and Markets to Scientific Methods (https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-031-13722-8_23) What will the world look like in a hundred years? What will the study of international relations be like? This article lays out a vision of the future, at once familiar and unexpected. Entrepreneurs of desperation: Young men and migration in interior Tunisia (https://www.taylorfrancis.com/chapters/edit/10.4324/9781003353232-11/entrepreneurs-desperation-karim-zakhour) The article looks at how young men in Tunisia try to navigate around harsh economic realities and dream of better lives. While We Wait: Democratization, State and Citizenship among Young Men in Tunisia's Interior Regions (https://www.diva-portal.org/smash/record.jsf?pid=diva2%3A1456250&dswid=5417) Why did the Tunisian democratic experiment fail? Based on long fieldwork this Ph. D thesis argues that democratization creates both opportunities and deep uncertainties that are amplified by economic failures and thus creates its own authoritarian reaction. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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We all know about the potential threats as AI becomes more advanced. They range from spreading disinformation, undermining our democracy (as discussed in our previous episode with Miles Taylor), to completely upending the job market. But could AI be used to radically transform the way bureaucracy works (making it more efficient) and helping us Order the Disorder?
To discuss whether AI could be used as an ‘Ordering Force’ if regulated properly, Jason is joined by Marc Warner. Marc is the founder of Faculty.AI, and has worked with many UK government agencies and leading multinational brands to implement impactful AI solutions. He sat on the Prime Minister’s AI Council, helped the NHS use AI to save thousands of lives during the pandemic, and attended the first ever AI Safety Summit.
Jason and Marc discuss: the role AI could play in fixing Britain’s broken public services, whether a Starmer-led Britain could become an AI superpower, and how the whole globe desperately needs global co-ordination to keep AI from turning into a Disordering technology.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
Listen to our previous episode with Miles Taylor, Ep25. Could Artificial Intelligence-powered disinformation campaigns cause electoral mayhem? https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/42c97d2971c72d251b59b92d47d6c0ed
Read: ‘Using AI to transform public services’ (foreword written by Marc & Tony Blair) https://www.institute.global/insights/politics-and-governance/governing-in-the-age-of-ai-a-new-model-to-transform-the-state
Watch: ‘Human Led AI’ - a talk by Marc https://www.gresham.ac.uk/watch-now/human-led-ai
Read: ‘AI Could Save (the UK) Government £200 Billion Over Five Years’ https://www.institute.global/insights/news/ai-could-save-government-gbp200-billion-over-five-years
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In this episode, Jason and Alex answer some questions from our mega orderers. They discuss: the ICC’s role as an ordering institution and its controversial positions on Israel/Palestine; the difference lens and standards through which we need to view elected vs. unelected Disorderers; and why the West can’t compromise with any of Putin’s demands – or even negotiate with him – but needs to exhibit ironclad resolve in backing Ukraine’s willingness to fight.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
Read Full Text of ICC Application for Arrest Warrants https://www.timesofisrael.com/full-text-of-icc-prosecutor-karim-khans-application-for-arrest-warrants/
Listen to our episode with Bill Browder, Ep26. Was Alexei Navalny a Martyr for Democracy? https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a36160dede2b990a59c34c3c4e8eeece
Hear our episode with Evgenia Kara Murza, Ep23. Is the democratic world morally responsible for allowing Putin's rise? With Evgenia Kara-Murza https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/8eff8cc4caece2708249ee7bec567ad8
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In part 2 of our discussion with Jamie Metzl, author of Superconvergence, Jaime tells Jason about his idea for creating a new global body tasked with regulated existential risks. Jaime is a super order who sees most of the threats facing humanity as fundamentally linked and wishes to adopt one coherent and coordinated approach to Order the Disorder. Trying to unpick how such regulation could be done, Jamie, Jason and Alex each analyse the differences between an American and European approach to regulating new industries.
Alex and Jason close the episode by proposing how the EU could use its trading might to incentivize global co-ordination on issues like climate change and AI.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
Mega-order Jamie’s book, Superconvergence, at https://superconvergencebook.com
For more on Jamie’s unbelievable career: https://jamiemetzl.com
And his novel ‘Eternal Sonata’: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28695898-eternal-sonata
And his theories and extensive public engagement about the origins of COVID-19: https://jamiemetzl.com/origins-of-sars-cov-2/
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Advanced biotech (CRISPR gene editing, gene drives, personalized medicine) could be the most Disordering technology ever invented. Techniques like gene drives could help us eradicate malaria by sterilising mosquitoes, but could they also spell the end of humanity (by unleashing unintended consequences)? Or release a new pandemic – think COVID-19 which was likely caused by a lab lead of a manmade super virus – into the population?
While biotech offers the potential to revolutionise everything, no one has yet proposed any coherent regulations over this domain. Seeking to learn more about advances in Biotech and how they interact with AI, globalization, and climate change we are joined by Jamie Metzl. Jamie is the author of Superconvergence, and Founder and Chair of the global social movement, OneShared.World. He and Jason discuss the vast opportunities and profound threats that emanate from biotech. Jason puts forth a more socially conservative vision that we need to learn from our collective past, what Jason calls the ‘French-peasant’ approach, while Jaime poopoos that approach advancing more boldly futuristic solutions.
To Order the Disorder, Jason and Alex discuss whether top-down or bottom-up governance solutions could help solve this issue, and what we need to do to regain the public’s trust in experts.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
Mega-order Jamie’s book, Superconvergence, at https://superconvergencebook.com/
For more on Jamie’s unbelievable career: https://jamiemetzl.com/
And his novel ‘Eternal Sonata’: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/28695898-eternal-sonata
And his theories and extensive public engagement about the origins of COVID-19: https://jamiemetzl.com/origins-of-sars-cov-2/
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The Economist called Tunisia a “light unto the Arab nations” just a decade ago, yet it may soon be fading into darkness. We talk with Tunisia’s Leading Opposition Presidential Candidate, Olfa Hamdi, to find out why.
Amidst this biggest year of elections in human history, the Tunisian election (initially scheduled for July 25 and now pushed back to October 6) has been largely forgotten in the mainstream media and even ignored by western policymakers. Yet, the dynamics at play in neo-populism’s current ascendancy in Tunisia – fear of migrants, coordination failures on behalf of Western allies, as well as Chinese and Russian meddling – are a perfect microcosm of the key aspects of Enduring Disorder elsewhere.
On the pod, Jason is joined by Tunisian Presidential candidate Olfa Hamdi: the founder and leader of the Third Republic Party of Tunisia and former CEO and Chairwoman of the Tunisian National Airline Tunisair. She and Jason investigate: the return of communism in Tunisia; President Qais Saied’s foreign policy alignment with Russia and China; pressures emanating from the southern border of NATO; Europe’s loss of the moral high ground, and the larger topics of the western foreign policy towards the Arab world and the battle to uphold democratic norms and checks and balances throughout the world.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
Olfa Hamdi Announces 2024 Presidential Campaign in Tunisia: https://www.newswire.com/news/olfa-hamdi-announces-2024-presidential-campaign-in-tunisia-22169766
Tunisia’s Backsliding Democracy Turns on Migrants: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/02/tunisia-elections-saied-ghannouchi-eu-migration-deal/
Tunisia abandons two-state solution; courts Iran, China, and Russia: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/tunisia-abandons-two-state-solution-courts-iran-china-and-russia
Tunisia: Joint Statement Calling for End to Crackdown: https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/06/18/tunisia-joint-statement-calling-end-crackdown
Tunisia's 2024 election: What role will migration play? https://www.dw.com/en/tunisias-2024-election-what-role-will-migration-play/a-67736521
Young Tunisians Don’t Trust Kais Saied Anymore: https://www.dw.com/en/tunisias-2024-election-what-role-will-migration-play/a-67736521
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Legend has it that when King George III heard that George Washington, had decided to retire after his second term, he remarked: “If he does that, he will be the greatest man in the world.” On July 21, 2024, Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. can justifiably claim to have done one of the most heroic acts in human history. Jason may be quoting the Guardian article (whose link is further down in the shownotes), but he is not exaggerating.
Few people voluntarily leave supreme power. Popes, Ayatollah, Presidents, Supreme Court Justices, and Dictators largely do not step down. They either die in office or lose power. Power is too addictive and seductive. Biden has stepped down and may go do in history as a modern-day Cincinnatus. He avoided the Ruth Bader Ginsburg trap. Yes, it might have been better had it happened sooner and in a more choreographed fashion rather than Adam Schiff and George Clooney having to pull him off stage left with a cane. Yet, better late than never.
On this Emergency cast: Jason and Alex discuss where they were when they heard this momentous news; the bizarre oddities of the recent Republican National Convention; Trump’s selection of J D Vance as his running mate; the protectionist/America-first agenda of the Trump/Vance ticket; and how the Dems can now try to order the disorder globally and domestically but weaving a new narrative.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
Biden’s selfless decision to drop out sets stage for an entirely different election: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/jul/21/biden-decision-drop-analysis
Nicholas Kristof: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/09/opinion/thepoint#biden-drop-out-meaning
Alexandra Hall Hall’s recent Byline Times article: ‘Assassination Attempts and the Rise of the Right – Amid the Turmoil, Britain is Emerging as a Steadying Force’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/07/19/assassination-attempts-and-the-rise-of-the-right-amid-the-turmoil-britain-is-emerging-as-a-steadying-force/
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A week ago today, NATO wrapped up its 75th anniversary summit. At the event genuine support of Ukraine was on full display. Discussion of how to Trump-proof NATO dominated the agenda, partnerships with NATO’s southern periphery were side stepped and the war in Gaza was largely ignored. All of this was choreographed to project unity and paper over disagreements within the alliance. But do such optics actually help to Order the Disorder?
To find out we’re joined by Jane Kinninmont – who was in Washington at the Summit. She tells Jason about the discussions on the margins of the summit – mostly about Joe Biden – and the glaring omission from the formal agenda: the Israel-Gaza conflict. She also shares a live-show discussion among her; Élie Tenenbaum, the Director of IFRI’s Security Studies Centre in Paris, just back from a mission to Kyiv; and Dr. Isabelle Werenfels, a senior fellow at the German think tank SWP. The trio opine on their impressions of the summit, the key announcements on Ukraine (which were quite minimal), the role of Spain in raising the Gaza issue, and what a Trump presidency might mean for NATO.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
“Trump-proofing NATO” has been one of the buzzwords around this summit. The BBC covers the issue here: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c3gr90jnxjvo
The NATO summit’s official communique is here: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227678.htm
Jane, Isabelle and Élie were all members of an independent experts group appointed by the NATO Secretary-General to contribute ideas on NATO’s approach to the Middle East and Africa, some of which were picked up in the summit communique. The expert group report can be found here: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2024/5/pdf/240507-NATO-South-Report.pdf
Jane and Isabelle wrote a version of the report here as a policy brief for SWP: https://www.swp-berlin.org/10.18449/2024C25/
Elie’s most recent study on the military situation in Ukraine can be found here: https://www.ifri.org/en/publications/politique-etrangere/articles-de-politique-etrangere/military-stakes-war-ukraine
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In bye gone moons, Trump inadvertently quoted Ralf Waldo Emerson, “When you strike at the King, you must kill him.” Yet on Saturday July 13, Donald Trump survived an attempt to gun him down at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. Will this be one of those pivotal moments which go down in history - like the assassination of Lincoln; of Archduke Franz Ferdinand; JFK, RFK, or MLK? Or will it be like with Gavrilo Princip’s predecessors, assassins are only remembered if they succeed. Others tried to assassinate the Archduke and History won't remember them because they missed.
Alex and Jason predict that Thomas Matthew Crooks will not be a household name for long and the impact he will have on history is likely very much the opposite of what he might have intended. Alex shares how she felt while hearing the news at a baseball tournament, while Jason shares his experience hearing the news from Saltsjoboden at the Swedish Open of backgammon. Professional gamblers noted to Jason that after the assassination attempt that the betting markets moved instantly in favour of Trump, even more so than after Biden’s poor debate performance.
As always Jason and Alex try to order the disorder by discussing the messianic narratives around Trump and how his supporters always viewed him as a perennial victim/martyr. Now having survived this attempt on his life, it seems likely that his saintliness and blessedness in their eyes will morph into a kind of hagiography. We conclude by discussing how the Democrats could use this moment to try to rally the country together around a new kind of unifying vision.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
JD Vance selected as Trump’s running mate: https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-announces-ohio-senator-j-d-vance-his-2024-running-mate
Many high profile figures believe that surviving the assassination attempt makes Trump’s re-election a done deal: https://www.euronews.com/culture/2024/07/15/the-election-is-over-celebrities-react-to-donald-trump-assassination-attempt
Trump says he will announce VP pick: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/15/us/trump-rnc-news-biden
For More on the Republican convention:
As Alex mentioned: Judge dismisses classified documents case against Trump: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/15/us/trump-documents-case-dismissed
Alistair and Rory on how the Assassination attempt will affect the US election and how Rory survived an Assassination attempt against him in Iraq: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y0OwsWUbmOw
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NATO is the longest lasting and most successful military alliance in human history. Today NATOs 75th Summit in Washington, DC comes to a close. What can NATO’s past tell us about its probably future?
To commemorate this symbolic occasion, Jason is joined by Peter Apps. He is the author of ‘Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO’, a global defence columnist for Reuters, and a British Army reservist. He has reported from more than 20 countries over two decades, despite being paralyzed in a frontline car crash in Sri Lanka in 2006.
Jason and Peter discuss: Lord Ismay’s dictum; how has the Ukraine war affected the alliance?; how important are personalities to the alliance and how it works?; and how can NATO’s history, institutional biography, and legacy of diplomatic flexibility shed some light on how it might respond to the unprecedented challenges around it — from the rise of the far right in National Rally in France, the AfD in Germany, to the spectre of Trump — and the challenges posed to NATO by Putin, Xi, climate change, AI, and misinformation.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
Peter’s book Deterring Armageddon: A Biography of NATO: the "astonishingly fine history" of the world's most successful military alliance https://www.amazon.co.uk/Deterring-Armageddon-Biography-astonishingly-successful/dp/103540575X
Listen to Disorder Ep6. NATO: A Model for Ordering the Disorder? with Kori Shacke, Timothy Garton Ash, Jamie Shea and Charles Kupchan: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/9472a8b7d262dd9fb0cd9827e8947964
About the NATO Defense College Foundation: https://www.natofoundation.org/about-us
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‘The people that walked in darkness have seen a great light; and they that dwell in the land of the shadow of Brexit, upon them hath the light shined.’ (Isaiah 9, v.2 with only one word changed) In retrospect, the melodies and lyrics of Handel’s Messiah appear quite appropriate for this most non-Messianic of Messiahs, the man of our moment, Sir Keir. Therefore, despite Alex and Jason’s fear about the large Reform vote and their trepidation about Biden’s remaining in the US Presidential race, they still make time to ‘Rejoice, Rejoice, Rejoice Greatly’ because British democracy does work. It operates via a system of checks and balances -- where every action causes a counter reaction, and every Sunak Rwanda scheme, Truss tanking of the economy, and Boris-y lie elicits a shift in public opinion. Despite the positive news of Britian’s Independence from Neo-Populists, the Enduring Disorder still prevails in many corners of these resplendent Isles. Jason tells of his undercover ethnographic field trip to Clacton-on-Sea, where he discovers that Reform are actually just the UK branch of the MAGA movement. Jason and Alex debate if: 1) Britain is in a phase of post-populism or proto-populism; 2) if the wave has crested or if Britain is just at an earlier stage in development than France or the USA; 3) What we can extrapolate about how the British electorate’s protest votes over Gaza or immigration bode for the American election; and 4) the power of the anti-system and anti-incumbency pressures and how these two factors might be the big difference btw the British and American elections -- as in the US both anti-system and anti-incumbency tendencies are working for the Republicans and against the Dems, whereas in the July 4 UK election the anti-system vote worked against the Tories and for Reform while the anti-incumbency vote worked for the Tories and against Labour. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack to get a recent clip of Jason on Al Jazeera English talking about Sir Keir’s approach to Gaza: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Oh Baby What a Night, the Two Matts on the Rise of the Lib Dems and Starmer’s flawless mastery of the first past the post system: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-two-matts/id1236139906?i=1000661232273 Read The Lammy Doctrine https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2024/06/david-lammy-doctrine-interview-jason-cowley?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Listen to an potted biography of Sir Keir’s personal, professional, and intellectual journey: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/origin-story/id1624704966?i=1000660203835 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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Later this week as they go to the polls, UK voters will likely celebrate their very own ‘Independence from Neo-Populists Day’. With Labour widely expected to secure a large majority… could this be a chance for Order within an increasingly Disordered West? If he cruises to victory, as expected, how will Sir Keir manage his relations with the EU and US? In this episode, Jason Pack and Alex Hall Hall discuss the rather uninspiring election campaign so far. They analyse why Labour’s play-it-safe ‘Gareth Southgate approach’ is dissuading some voters; what a Starmer premiership means for the UK’s relationship with the EU (could some stealth mega-ordering be on the horizon?); and how David Lammy and Kier would almost certainly reignite an increasingly ‘special relationship’ with a Biden/Democrat-led US, or how they would struggle to navigate a ‘specially-challenged-relationship’ with a Trump-led White House. Twitter: @DisorderShow Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/ Producer: George McDonagh Exec Producer: Neil Fearn Show Notes Links Read In Picture-Postcard English Villages, a Seismic Political Shift Is Underway (on Jeremy Hunt) from the New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/14/world/europe/uk-election-jeremy-hunt.html Sir Keir Starmer must win. Only his government can shape the future we want to see: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/ng-interactive/2024/jun/28/the-guardian-view-on-the-general-election-2024-a-labour-victory-would-be-a-reason-for-hope And when will we get the results: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/21/general-election-timetable-when-what-time-results/ Read The Lammy Doctrine https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2024/06/david-lammy-doctrine-interview-jason-cowley?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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After months of the grandees in the Democratic party telling the public that Biden’s age was nothing to worry about: the Global Orderer-in Chief has been shown to have no clothes and his adult diapers were not changed prior to his appearing before an audience of tens of millions. As Mega-Orderers know, Jason is prone to melodrama, but in this instance the Sky Really Is Falling! June 27, 2024 may go down there as one of those dates like Dec 7, 1941 and June 23, 2016: Dates that will live on in infamy.
Biden’s debate performance truly has massive implications for global order: it will embolden Pyongyang, Beijing, Tehran, and Moscow; it creates a dangerous global vacuum with an absence of orderers for many months until the dust settles from the US election; and it leaves the democratic party with an urgent choice how to choreography the process of substituting Biden out for a younger candidate.
To counterbalance Jason’s doom and gloom, he is joined by the ever up beat Glaswegian Jane Kinninmont who presents the view on Biden from the European capitals.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
As for what needs to happen now, here are what centrist Democrats commentators are saying: Tom Friedman: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html
Frank Bruni: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/presidential-debate-trump-biden-2024.html
Scores of cogent podcasts have emerged dissecting the optics of the debate and what the Dems have to do now. Here are a couple that we have found particularly useful:
Ezra Klein: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-presidential-debate.html
The Rest is Politics US: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/advantage-trump-will-the-democrats-move-to-replace/id1743030473?i=1000660512902
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Exactly 110 years ago, a malnourished teenager with a pistol disordered the world. On Sunday the 28th of June 1914, Gavrilo Princip fired two bullets. They hit their targets -- killing both the Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the Austro-Hungarian imperial crown, and his wife, Sophie.
That event ended the age of the traditional European empires, unleashed the mud and blood of the Great War, catalysed the fall of the Tsar and theoretical Marxism’s transformation into a totalitarian reality, and uncorked the nationalist genie that would lead to Hitler, the Second World War, the Holocaust, and later the Cold War. But did it also start our era of Enduring Disorder?
Jason has certain contentions about the relative degree of order and disorder in the past -- notably that the years 1815-2011, in general, and 1946-2003, in specific, were periods characterized by global order and coherent hegemonic leadership -- but what if he is wrong? What if our global disorder didn’t start in 2003 but rather in 1914?
In this special anniversary episode of Disorder, Tim Butcher tells Jason Pack about that fateful day exactly 110 years ago, what its disordering implications have been, how they have rippled down the years, and how modern history can be thought to have begun on that street corner in Sarajevo.
Princip has been variously described as the `bloodiest assassin in history’ and ‘the most important person in the entire 20th century’… but in this episode, we are going to investigate if he is -- possibly more so than even Trump, Putin or the Ayatollahs -- our world’s true disorder-in-chief… As Tim explains, there is every reason to feel that the world of the Fin de Siècle was in fact more order than what came after it and that Princip is the author of the Disorder that we now inhabit.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Website: https://natoandtheglobalenduringdisorder.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
Buy ‘The Trigger: Hunting the Assassin Who Brought the World to War’ by Tim Butcher - https://www.amazon.com/Trigger-Hunting-Assassin-Brought-World/dp/0802123899/
For more on Gavrilo Princip’s biography: https://www.britannica.com/biography/Gavrilo-Princip
For more on Tim Butcher’s amazing career: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Butcher
And for his great episode on our sister Pod, Battleground: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/121-how-the-2006-war-relates-to-gaza-today/id1617276298?i=1000640849125
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