Folgen
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Amidst post-election malaise and seasonal depression, Jason is thankful for the Mega-Ordering listeners who sent in their questions to his new address in a bunker underneath the hills of Hampstead (you can reach it by writing to him @ [email protected]). Esther asked ‘To what extent did the Dems actually pander to the woke agenda? Or is that just made up and trumped up by the Republicans since it helps them win points’; Annabelle in Atlanta, Georgia asks ‘Could Taylor Swift solve all the disorder?’ while Kerry in the Republic of Georgia asks ‘despite being from rural Vermont, I now feel these days like I barely know America. I do not understand Trump voters. How do we bridge this divide on a practical level?’
Jumping off from these prompts Alex and Jason cover myriad topics including: the potential for conflict between China and Taiwan, whether JD Vance could become President before 2028, the ways we can incorporate the lessons of behavioral economics into political decision-making, and the role of the transgender issue in the recent election campaign. Plus: the challenges for liberal elites in truly understanding Trump voters, if Taylor Swift and other celebrities actually helped or hurt the Dems, and why even in these dark days, we can remain optimistic about the potential success of a collective effort to preserve democracy.
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Show Notes Links
Learn more about the history of Thanksgiving: https://www.britannica.com/topic/Thanksgiving-Day
And the Origins of Turkey: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/11/why-americans-call-turkey-turkey/383225/
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We have crossed through the looking glass – Up is Down, Disorder is Order, Vice is Virtue, Felony is a Positive, and Rape Convictions are a reason to get a cabinet position. With Trump unsurprisingly appointing disruptors to his administration, Global Disorder beckons. How did we get here? Seemingly because Biden wasn’t bold enough in trying to assert order. Is Starmer making the same mistake?
In this episode, Jason and Alex discuss what will happen to the ongoing legal cases against Trump, the forthcoming Trump administration’s attempts to disorder and dismantle American institutions and checks and balances, and the likely evolution of the Supreme Court. After a lengthy discussion of the initial proposal of Matt Gaetz’s as Attorney General and his subsequent withdrawal, Alex introduces listeners to Xela Llah Llah, her Trump-voting alter-ego who lives on the other side of the looking glass and who will occasionally be coming on the podcast to explain politics from her point of view.
After some wise words from Xela which ‘help us empathize with the other side’, Jason and Alex turn their attention back to the UK, looking at whether Starmer’s appearance at COP means anything, and how (if at all) he can push to become a more prominent global leader on a range of issues. In a rather downbeat and informal Ordering the Disorder segment, we examine the future of multilateralism and the global political order (is there any such thing anymore?)
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Show Notes Links
Matt Gaetz’s Bio and why Criminality leads to loyalty: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?i=1000677307816
On Matt Gaetz’s replacement Pam Bondi: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/21/us/politics/pam-bondi-attorney-general-trump.html
And for a Trump Cabinet Tracker: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/politics/trump-administration-cabinet-appointees.html
Also a link back to last week’s episode discussing how Starmer should be bolder: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/ep83-trump-derangement-syndrome-with-the-two-matts/id1706818264?i=1000677421360
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Fehlende Folgen?
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The Post-Mortem autopsy continues. How could liberal elites have had eight and half years to prepare for the twenty thousand tonne train barrelling down the tracks right at them and not been able to take sufficient evasive action? Who are these clowns? Do they deserve what is coming? What can studying years of Brexit Fatigue, Orban Exhaustion, and Netanyahu Nihilism, teach us about both how this Trumpian travesty has happened and the likely disorderly evolution of peak Neopopulism in America? And what is the antidote to Trump Derangement Syndrome? Jason needs a double dose.
In this episode, Jason is joined by Matt Kelly and Matt d’Ancona – the hosts of The New European’s ‘The Two Matts’ podcast. They discuss the abysmal state of the world and Keir Starmer’s inability to lead with vision. They review and assess the rise of neopopulism in both the UK and the US. The conclusion is that the goose is cooked. Complacency and a lack of bold messaging has led to the evisceration of the centre-left globally. Jason even questions if he is of the centre-left anymore, concluding he may simply be a disillusioned and increasingly radical centrist. While the Two Matts share bon mot about recent horrific developments in Britain, Jason explores some lessons from Hungary and Israel, which may possibly shed some light on the likely future trajectory of neopopulism in America. Delving briefly into the shocking and depressing cabinet appointments trickling out of MAGA world, the Two Matts and Jason also reflect on the social legacy of the Trump era and its lasting impact on Western political discourse. In place of Ordering the Disorder (which may no longer be possible as Disorder has already won), The Two Matts answer lightening round questions about the most macabre moments of Trump-iness and some of the humorous aspects of the challenges ahead.
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Show Notes Links
Get the Two Matts podcast - https://podfollow.com/2matts
Read the latest edition of the New European here: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/edition/the-beast-unleashed/
Read Jason’s article, ‘A lizard person’s guide to US election conspiracy theories’ in the New European: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-lizard-persons-guide-to-us-election-conspiracy-theories/
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The Disorderer-in-Chief is now President-Elect. We can’t say we didn’t see it coming. In fact, we predicted on the pod and on the substack that he was favourite to win. But as the post-mortems are bouncing around the internet, we must ask what one factor most led to this outcome: was it the economy, was it woke gone overboard, was it misinformation, was it the anti-incumbency mood? Which factors predominated in making Harris unelectable? And how did the Democratic party allow itself to be fooled again and fight the election on losing issues? And Were Americans fooled by false promises? And duped by misinformation about the issues?
And given Trump’s resounding victory what is next – will he deport millions of Americans, launch a trade war that drives inflation skywards, and give Musk the keys to the regulatory castle to endlessly enrich himself – and will the American electorate care in 4 years’ time?
In this episode, Alex and Jason discuss the major reasons underpinning Trump’s win. Including: the cultural shifts in the United States, the fact that Trump’s criminality and venality may actually be seen by many of his voters as a positive (i.e. they voted for him not despite the fact that he is a convicted felon but BECAUSE OF IT), and how the Republicans were brutally effective in their advertising and narrative crafting.
Amidst all the tumult, the Disorder pods co-hosts attempt to take stock globally and personally. Alex – a Brit turned American – and Jason – an American turned Brit – reflect on their own changing identities and how the result makes them feel in their guts. Plus: listener questions tackle topics like the future of Europe and NATO, could Trump change the constitution, could Trump actually deliver what people want, what about Bitcoin, and whether America could become yet another Russia-style oligarchy.
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Show Notes Links
Read Alex’s Byline Times Article - ‘Democrats Need to Stop Blaming Trump’s Voters and Admit the Party Must Change’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/11/07/democrats-need-to-stop-blaming-trumps-voters-and-admit-the-party-must-change/
What the Founding Fathers Would Say About Trump’s Win
“I told you so.”: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/11/08/what-the-founding-fathers-would-say-about-trumps-win/?tpcc=editors_picks&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Editors%20Picks%2011092024&utm_term=editors_picks
Trump’s Historic Chief of Staff Pick, and What Elon Musk Wants Now: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/08/podcasts/trump-chief-of-staff-musk.html
Amsterdam bans protests after 'antisemitic squads' attack Israeli soccer fans: https://www.reuters.com/world/israels-pm-aware-very-violent-incident-against-israelis-amsterdam-his-office-2024-11-08/
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After a night of trepidation at Jason’s watch party the results came in faster and more furiously than expected… Trump crushed Harris – not just in rural areas or in Red States, but in many middle-class suburbs/exurbs and even with Latino and Black men. This 2024 Trumpian landslide is the biggest re-alignment in American politics since Reagan crushed Carter in 1980. The ‘lumpenproletariat’ Trump coalition of 2024 is actually highly dissimilarly economically, socially, ideologically and ethnically to the ‘whitelash’ coalition that took him to victory in 2016. How will that affect its Disordering impacts on the global stage?
Jason is joined by party guests -- FP deputy editor Sasha Polakow-Suransky and Jane Kinninmont -- to break down what the results mean for global order.
Sasha shares insights into anti-immigrant sentiment and attempts to channel the angry anti-system voters from his home state of Michigan, while Jane discusses European defense arrangements and is pressed by Jason to provide a sliver of Celtic optimism. They attempt to explain the implications for the rest of the world: the transatlantic relationship, European security, Ukraine, tariff wars, the Middle East (Iran/Gaza), and China. Jason ends the episode with a forlorn farewell. He sees no silver lining, only peak disorder ahead.
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
And Pray that the Disorderer-and-Chief doesn’t cancel American democracy
Show Notes Links
To Get Sasha’s Book ‘Go Back to Where You Came From’: https://www.hachettebookgroup.com/titles/sasha-polakow-suransky/go-back-to-where-you-came-from/9781568585932/
Check out his debate-style podcast Counterpoint: https://foreignpolicy.com/podcasts/counterpoint/
On the Demographic shifts and the re-ordering (or rather re-disordering) of American politics from racial/ethnic cleavages onto class lines
On ‘Defending Europe with less America’: https://ecfr.eu/publication/defending-europe-with-less-america/?amp
‘There is hope [maybe if you are Celtic but not if you are Anglo-American] — 10 ways to be prepared and grounded for another Trump presidency’: https://wagingnonviolence.org/2024/11/10-things-to-do-if-trump-wins/
On Michigan’s Arab voters: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/28/election-michigan-harris-trump-arab-americans-lebanon-war-israel-gaza/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=ZWxlY3Rpb24tbWljaGlnYW4taGFycmlzLXRydW1wLWFyYWItYW1lcmljYW5zLWxlYmFub24td2FyLWlzcmFlbC1nYXph&pid=OC20506955
And the ‘Uncommitted’ movement: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/21/michigan-biden-harris-gaza-uncommitted-arab-vote/?utm_content=gifting&tpcc=gifting_article&gifting_article=bWljaGlnYW4tYmlkZW4taGFycmlzLWdhemEtdW5jb21taXR0ZWQtYXJhYi12b3Rl&pid=OC20506955
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What do professional ‘futurists’ think about global disorder? With our current world seemingly in never ending Disorder that won’t be immediately cured by the election results, it can be hard to put your head above the parapet and try to see into the future. Furthermore, given the rapidly changing pace of technology, the 2050s, 2070s, and 2100s feel a long way out. Is it worth trying to forecast and plan for the future? If countries started planning now, could we see an Ordered future?
In this episode of Disorder, Jason opens with his feelings about election day and then hands over to Jane Kinninmont to host Cat Tully, who works with governments, civil society and young leaders around the world to facilitate structured conversations about what the future could and should look like. She is the founder of the School of International Futures, and has previously served in the UK government, working on strategy in the prime minister’s office and the Foreign Office.
Jane and Cat delve into the complexities of forecasting the future, discussing the importance of collective foresight in navigating global disorder. They discuss what was and wasn’t achieved by the recent UN Summit For The Future, the role of strategic foresight in preparing for potential shocks, and how people around the world are working to push governments beyond short-term populist priories. Finally, they Order the Disorder by talking about the importance of youth engagement, and using futures and foresight methodologies to build a better future rather than viewing the future through the lens of panic and polycrisis.
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
And Pray that the Disorderer-and-Chief doesn’t win
Show Notes Links
The School of International Futures’ Implementation Handbook for the wellbeing of future generations: https://soif.org.uk/implementation-handbook/
UK Government’s brief guide to futures thinking and foresight: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/635931b18fa8f557d066c1b1/A_Brief_Guide_to_Futures_Thinking_and_Foresight_-_2022.pdf
A great book by Jane McGonagal on training your imagination to think about the future: https://janemcgonigal.com/2021/12/17/imaginable-how-to-see-the-future-coming-and-feel-ready-for-anything-even-things-that-seem-impossible-today/
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To celebrate Halloween, Jason goes on the Keen On show hosted by friend of the Disorder Pod, Andrew Keen, to talk about America’s spooky election and the crazy conspiracy theories that are floating around this election cycle. What does it really mean when people say the 2020 election was stolen or that Bill Gates implants people with microchips via their Covid Vaccines?
Conspiracy theories are not only, not new, they are a core part of how campaigns of social change are articulated. The more radical the change – the French Revolution, the rise of Hitler, or Trump’s election—the more paramount the need for conspiracy theories to motivate the required action need to bring it about. Given his recent study of the phenomenon, Jason articulates his view that the conspiratorial rhetoric around this election embodies a new ‘us vs. them’ turn in American political life. He urges Andrew and listeners to Read beneath the surface! And Unpack the True hidden meaning of the conspiracy!
Pointing to his New European Article (published this week), Jason concludes: Conspiracy theories are a socially acceptable way of articulating a Politics of Ressentiment – of pitting groups against each other. Just like Brexit, Trump has signalled that he will ‘take back control’ from the minorities, Jews, uppity feminists, transgender activists, immigrants, urban lawyers, and all the other groups you hate and feel have too much power. Spooky indeed!
Show Notes Links
Read Jason’s New European Article here: https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/a-lizard-persons-guide-to-us-election-conspiracy-theories/
And revisit last week’s Disorder episode 76, ‘The System is Rigged: Conspiracy theories and the revenge of the losers’ with Joe Uscinski here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/2nvlI3hR1VFyMbgKaZddyi
Check out Andrew Keen’s Substack here: https://keenon.substack.com/
Listen to Andrew podcast on Spotify here: https://open.spotify.com/show/1kkWdvi3xdG7JvTbQ0l9Ho
And one of his fun episodes on Intellectual Objectivity here: https://keenon.substack.com/p/in-defense-of-geeky-intellectuals
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Whether it is solar panels or steel, clothes or tech, many of the world’s manufactures are made in China. But did you know that the Chinese manufacturing sector is not really supply and demand driven and tends to produce far more than the rest of the world demands? Now… with a faltering post-COVID recovery, a housing market collapse, and worsening relationship with the West, is China’s economy in a genuine state of crisis? And could a troubled Chinese economy, unable to be buoyed by the recently announced stimulus, spread more Disorder globally? And what should the US and UK do to contain China’s disordering potential? And how are different approaches to the Chinese economy a key electoral issue in the upcoming US Presidential election?
Jason Pack is joined by Zongyuan ‘Zoe’ Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, and author of Sovereign Funds: How the Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions. Jason and Zoe discuss how China's economic policies – characterized by a motley mix of market-driven and state-controlled elements – have led to both tremendous Chinese excellence in manufacturing and also oversupply. The duo also discuss: the changing US-China relationship, the implications of Chinese overproduction on the global economy, and the role of massive Chinese provincial government debt.
As they Order the Disorder, they suggest how existing institutions like the World Trade Organization could work better, and how to patch up the failing marriage between China and the West.
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Show Notes Links
Read Zoe’s article ‘China’s Real Economic Crisis: Why Beijing Won’t Give Up on a Failing Model’ https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-real-economic-crisis-zongyuan-liu
Read more on why ‘China’s economic ills are serious but not incurable’https://www.ft.com/content/553b106c-2bba-4f90-86d6-8496fc9cf902
On the Chinese hacking of Trump and Vance’s phone’s: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/25/politics/chinese-hackers-targeted-trump-and-vances-phone-data/index.html
For more on China’s government is about to spend big on stimulus – can it turn around the country’s sluggish economy? https://theconversation.com/chinas-government-is-about-to-spend-big-on-stimulus-can-it-turn-around-the-countrys-sluggish-economy-241260
To get more on Zongyuan Zoe Liu https://www.cfr.org/expert/zongyuan-zoe-liu
Watch US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns explain The China Challenge https://foreignpolicy.com/live/burns-china-us-competition-diplomacy/
Read George Manus’ piece ‘China’s plan to boost flagging growth is the very definition of economic insanity‘ https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/oct/13/chinas-plan-to-boost-flagging-growth-is-the-very-definition-of-economic-insanity
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From immigrants eating pets, to Jewish space lasers starting wildfires, to 9/11 ‘trutherism’, our disordered world – and particularly the rhetoric surrounding the 2024 US Election – is awash with conspiracy theories. Are these theories: ways of venting anti-establishment anger, merely entertaining distractions, dangerous socially acceptable ways of conveying hate for minorities, or do they actually convey meaningful calls to revolutionary political action? What is the hidden meaning encoded in the plot lines and specific tropes of particular popular conspiracy theories? And why do neo-populist leaders push – and anti-establishment voters believe in them? Are conspiracy theories inherently ‘disordering’ and do they make it more difficult for today’s politicians to solve pressing challenges?
To explore this complex world, Jason Pack is joined by Joseph Uscinski. He is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami, author of ‘Conspiracy Theories: A Primer’, and editor of Conspiracy ‘Theories and the People Who Believe Them’.
Throughout the episode, Jason engages in a conspiracy to come up with a unified field theory of how to unlock the meaning of conspiracy theories. Joe rains on his parade, rejecting most of Jason’s pet theories, while unsurprisingly approving of his own pet theory: ‘Conspiracy Theories are for Losers and express a coherent world view that suits those without economic or political power’.
Jason and Joe discuss how conspiracy theories have become intertwined with certain types of modern political movements (especially disordering neo-populist ones), the psychological and social factors that motivate belief in conspiracy theories, the role of antisemitism throughout much conspiratorial thinking, and how these theories often target marginalised groups. The show closes with various sharp debates like over whether entertainment value or calls to political action have key roles to play in the spread of conspiracy theories. Lastly, when they Order the Disorder, Jason and Joe disagree vehemently over the role of global institutions should play in curtailing the spread of conspiracy theories.
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/ to get the special substack-only second episode on Backgammon and Politics with former World Champion of Backgammon Sander Lylloff which drops tomorrow October 23rd
Show Notes Links
For various experts who think Conspiracy Theories entail and motivate actions: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/marianna-in-conspiracyland/id1690561703?i=1000616687886
Get Joseph’s book, Conspiracy Theories: A Primer: https://www.barnesandnoble.com/w/conspiracy-theories-joseph-e-uscinski/1133459048
Listen to Joseph explain conspiracy theories and the people who believe them: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dr-joseph-uscinski-conspiracy-theories-and-the-people/id1599806986?i=1000549404259
Listen to Joseph on confronting conspiracy theories:
https://www.podcastone.com/episode/Episode-8---Confronting-Conspiracy-Theories-with-Joseph-Uscinski
Read how conspiracy theories have taken hold in far right communities: https://www.thejc.com/lets-talk/i-went-undercover-among-the-fascists-and-this-is-what-i-found-rd5o5whq
Read the definition Jason uses for popular conspiracy theories: https://allthatsinteresting.com/popular-conspiracy-theories
Read definition of the 6 types of conspiracy theories: https://www.forbes.com/sites/traversmark/2024/02/25/a-psychologist-explains-6-types-of-conspiracy-theories/
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Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the West initiated the most comprehensive economic war in human history. The US, EU, and UK announced a range of well-coordinated sanctions against Russia which included export restrictions, freezing assets, excluding the Russian Central Bank from SWIFT, and banning flights. It was an example of transcending the Enduring Disorder with the main Western powers working together seamlessly.
But seen in hindsight were these effective? Did they degrade Russia’s fighting capacity? Does kicking a state out of the globalized economy actually hit Disordering states, like Putin’s Russia or Iran, where it hurts? Do they help avoid future aggression? Or do they facilitate the rise of a ‘Disorderer’s Club’ where sanctioned autocracies merely trade with each other and form common cause against the West?
In this’ investigative’ episode of Disorder, Jason Pack is joined by Bloomberg journalist, Stephanie Baker, author of ‘Punishing Putin: Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia.’ The pair explore different theories of whether economic integration prevents wars, the effectiveness of sanctions, the fear of blowback, the role of oligarchs in Putin's regime, and the impact of the novel $60 a barrel ‘oil price cap’ on Russia's economy. Plus: as they Order the Disorder, they look at whether methods like the oil price cap could be used to deter Iran, the need for a coordinated international response (which includes players like the UAE), and how targeting Putin’s access to high-end semi-conductors could help undermine his authoritarian power.
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
Listen to our episode with Marcel Dirsus Ep67. ‘Dictators’ Disordering Quest for Internal Security’: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e
Listen to our episode with Tom Burgis which sheds light on why authoritarian states outsource their economic functions and corruption: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/e003625c25e8ce63dda398369bfea54b
For more on Stephanie visit: https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/
Get Stephanie’s book, Punishing Putin: Inside the Global Economic War to Bring Down Russia: https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/Punishing-Putin/Stephanie-Baker/9781668050583
Readna review of Punishing Putin: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/13/punishing-putin-review-us-economic-sanctions-russia-war-ukraine/
Read more from Stephanie on how Seizing a Russian Superyacht is much more complicated than you think: https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/stories-archive/russian-oligarch-s-seized-yachts-are-costing-tax-payers-millions
And for some amusement amidst all the seriousness, Read ‘Giuliani Has Curious Links to a Jewish Village in Ukraine’ by Stephanie https://stephaniebakerwriter.com/stories-archive/guiliani-link-to-jewish-village-ukraine
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What can games of skill and chance, of risk and reward – like Poker and Backgammon– teach diplomats, policymakers, and interested participants about how to Order the Disorder?
In this episode, Jason Pack is joined by the former #1 Giant of Backgammon, Wilcox Snellings. In the 1990s, he was considered by his peers to be the best player in the world. The duo discuss: Wilcox’s upbringing, New York’s gambling culture, the milieu of high stakes gambling and its myriad lessons for confronting disorder with probabilistic calculations.
The duo explore how concepts of expected value and game theory, which underpin modern economics, derive from gambling. They also explore the concepts popularized by Nate Silver in his new book 'On the Edge', which focuses on the dichotomy between ‘the River’ (i.e. the community of risk takers) and ‘the village’ (i.e. the community of PC, play-it-safe, left-leaning establishment elites). Wilcox and Jason explore how today’s crop of political leaders often fail to utilize the principles of risk vs reward calculations and fail to grasp inherent causal connections when making decisions. In the Ordering the Disorder section, Wilcox and Jason link the failure of left and centrist politicians in tackling the challenges of campaign finance, taxation equity, and income inequality to their risk averseness.
If you enjoyed this episode and want to hear its partner episode with Sander Lylloff the 2022 World Champion of Backgammon Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Next week that special bonus episode will drop only on the Substack.
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
Listen to the World’s current number 1 Giant of Backgammon Mochy talking to Jason’s friend Etan Ilfeld: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-etan-ilfeld-podcast/id1500914118?i=1000671570803
Venture into online backgammon and amongst the stars on Backgammon Galaxy: https://www.backgammongalaxy.com/
For another more personal interview about Wilcox’s life: https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=Wilcox+Snellings&mid=801C99A1E7F69963E00A801C99A1E7F69963E00A&FORM=VIRE
Read more about Nate Silver’s book https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/09/09/on-the-edge-the-art-of-risking-everything-nate-silver-book-review
And a fairly cogent critique of Silver’s book:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/09/20/on-the-edge-book-review-nate-silver-risk/
Read Jason’s article written in Dubai three years ago about Backgammon, peace making, and the Abraham Accords: https://www.mei.edu/publications/personal-vantage-point-gamble-abraham-accords-dubais-first-international-backgammon
Watch Jason Play a commentated tournament backgammon live from Dubai starting at 3:51:00 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzDxx1yG78o
Listen to current world number 1, Mochy on Backgammon and Life on the Etan Ilfeld Podcast https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-etan-ilfeld-podcast/id1500914118?i=1000671570803
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(This episode flows from Ep 73 Part I: Commemorating the October 7 Massacre – please listen to it first if you have not.) In this second part of our series recapping a year of the Israel-Hamas War, Jason and Sir Vincent Fean (former British Consul General in Jerusalem and former Chairman of the Balfour Project) pivot their discussion to the current state of Palestinian political institutions, the Palestinian question on the international diplomatic stage; international legal rulings against Israel’s occupation; Britain’s historic role in the Palestine question and its ensuing responsibilities to the Palestinians; the actions of Sir Keir’s government to bring about Palestinian statehood; and the longer term implications of the current conflict for the future of the Middle East and the world.
Both Jason and Sir Vincent argue that it is impossible to Order the Disorder globally on issues like climate change without tackling the Middle East head on. This episode is both a heartbreaker and a must-listen.
For more on Israel-Gaza-Lebanon-Iran and the state of our Disordered world, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
On the impact of recognising a Palestinian state: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn44j1njggjo
For more on the Balfour Project: https://balfourproject.org/#:~:text=-%20Balfour%20Project.%20Peace%20with%20justice,%20security%20and
On Bibi, Hizbollah, Yahya Sinwar and Hamas’ attempts to truly destroy Israel: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/israel-vs-hamas-hezbollah-iran-and-itself/id1548604447?i=1000670150284
On the economic impacts of one year of war on the region and the globe: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a-year-to-the-war-in-gaza/id1584397047?i=1000671757710
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A year ago today, the Middle East and the world changed forever. Hamas terrorists and Gazan civilians broke through the Gaza border fence into Israel and began massacring over a thousand Israelis and taking hundreds of hostages. A few weeks later, Israel began an aerial bombardment campaign and ground occupation of Gaza that has caused tens of thousands of casualties, leveled most of Gaza’s buildings, and seems to have no end in sight. To support Hamas, Hizbollah began firing missiles into Northern Israel from southern Lebanon, even before the Israeli incursion in Gaza began. This has recently led to Israeli decapitation strikes against Hizbollah’s leadership and an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon.
To mark the sober anniversary of October 7, Jason Pack is joined by Sir Vincent Fean. Over the course of a long and distinguished diplomatic career, Sir Vincent was British Consul General in Jerusalem – which is essentially Britain’s Ambassador to the Palestinians. Currently, Sir Vincent urges the British government to recognise a Palestinian state via his role as trustee and former Chairman of The Balfour Project, an NGO.
In this first part of a two-part episode, Jason and Sir Vincent seek to shine light on a few interrelated topics: firstly to provide an overview of the last year of tragedy, violence, and death in the Middle East; to unpick Israeli military strategy or lack thereof, to contextualize the vast humanitarian suffering of Gazan and West Bank Palestinians; to situate the Oct 7 attacks in the long continuum of Jewish persecution; and examine the re-emergence of previously dormant forms of conspiratorial antisemitism around the world. Please join us tomorrow for Part II of the discussion btw Jason and Sir Vincent.
For more on Israel-Gaza-Lebanon-Iran and the state of our Disordered world, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
A quick factual overview from Deutsche Welle on the October 7th attacks and the ensuing year of violence: https://www.dw.com/en/october-7-hamas-attacks-on-israel-a-year-later/a-70399696#:~:text=On%20October%207,%202023,%20Hamas,%20the%20Palestinian%20militant
A more detailed strategic look at what happened on October 7th: https://www.csis.org/analysis/hamas-october-7-attack-tactics-targets-and-strategy-terrorists#:~:text=Hamas%20fighters%20killed%20an%20estimated%201,400%20Israelis,%20largely
On the Nova Massacre and Oct 7th videos: https://time.com/6565186/october-7-hamas-attack-footage-film/
Listen back to ep on ICC Verdict: Ep24. What does South Africa stand to gain from accusing Israel of Genocide in Gaza? https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/7a0930e7d9052f19cd7072d72214edfb
UNRWA Imperiled by Terrorism Charges: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/29/world/middleeast/unrwa-israel-gaza-terrorism.html
On Bibi, Hizbollah, Yahya Sinwar and Hamas’ attempts to truly destroy Israel: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/israel-vs-hamas-hezbollah-iran-and-itself/id1548604447?i=1000670150284
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Tuesday night’s vice-presidential debate between Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz was a breath of fresh air in some ways. The discussion was civil, with Vance in particular attempting to present himself as reasonable. But hiding underneath the crisp suit, eloquent banter, and agreeable disagreements, is a Disorderer, who could become President in 2028, if not sooner.
In this special episode focusing on the VP debate, and the threat Vance presents to democracy, Alex Hall Hall is joined by Greg Olear, host of the Prevail podcast and author of ‘Rough Beast: Who Donald Trump Really Is, What He’ll Do if Re-Elected, and Why Democracy Must Prevail.’
The pair analyze the implications of the debate for the upcoming election, the role of media in shaping public perception, and the potential threats posed by Vance's political agenda. Plus to Order the Disorder, Alex and Greg delve into the need for the Democrats to communicate effectively.
For more on the ongoing US Presidential race, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
Vance and Walz stick to policy in polite VP debate - but who won? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y0863ry88o
CBS cut mics and fact-checked JD Vance in a more civil VP debate, drawing the ire of Trump and his allies: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/10/02/media/vance-walz-debate-cbs-moderators-fact-check/index.html
Listen to Greg’s podcast Prevail at https://pod.link/1553506699
Read his Substack Prevail at https://gregolear.substack.com/
Get his book Rough Beast: Who Donald Trump Really Is, What He’ll Do if Re-Elected, and Why Democracy Must Prevail https://www.amazon.com/Rough-Beast-Re-Elected-Democracy-Prevail-ebook/dp/B0D4MS1D25
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Over the weekend, Israel confirmed that they had killed Hezbollah’s charismatic leader – and terrorist master mind -- Hassan Nasrallah. He was frequently described as the leader of the globe’s most powerful non-state armed group. So, what does Nasrallah’s exit from the stage and the ongoing Israeli bombardment of Lebanon, mean for the region? Amidst the humanitarian crisis and vast escalatory pressures, how can we Order the Disorder?
To find out, Arthur Snell and Jane Kinninmont recorded a special bonus episode of the podcast. The duo discuss: the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Iran – examining the motivations of both parties. They analyse Netanyahu's political manoeuvring, the complexities of Lebanon's political/sectarian landscape, and the potential for diplomatic solutions amidst the chaos. Plus, they dissect the challenges faced by the international community in addressing the crisis and the implications for US influence in the region, as they try and Order the Disorder.
For more on the fast moving situation across Lebanon and the wider region, subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
Listen to Arthur Snell’s podcast Behind The Lines: https://shows.acast.com/65196b0b1488340011cf14a1
Read Tom Fletcher’s (a former guest from Episode Ep10. How international actors can stabilize the ongoing Israel-Hamas War and prevent a regional escalation - https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/cd7401e8093b8bb8f10c639a30db226c) piece on what’s next for the region: https://www.ft.com/content/f78a4277-8f94-40c4-a4d4-6c0bde361ecb
Read Michael Young’s Twitter Thread on the latest: https://x.com/beirutcalling/status/1840008152336527715?s=46
More on the moving situation in Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/apartment-building-beirut-hit-israel-widens-air-campaign-2024-09-29/
Read this really insightful bio of Hassan Nasrallah by Hassan Hassan (from Syria) and Karim Shaheen in New Lines magazine - https://newlinesmag.com/argument/end-of-an-era-what-hassan-nasrallahs-assassination-spells-for-the-middle-east/
Read this article by Michael Young (@beirutcalling) which covers both the regional risks and the domestic political implications - https://carnegieendowment.org/middle-east/diwan/2024/09/israel-has-assassinated-the-secretary-general-of-hezbollah-hassan-nasrallah?lang=en¢er=middle-east
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‘Peak Disorder’ is Jason’s coinage for: the democratic world’s inability to exert ordering capacity to respond to new challenges except if they are existentially pressing because we are simply too divided, distracted, and overtaxed by existing crises. This phenomenon of ‘peak disorder’ is epitomized over the last two months by events in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh’s embattled prime minister, Sheikh Hasina, fled the country on Aug 5, 2024, after a brutal government crackdown against protests had resulted in hundreds of deaths. The country’s president, the armed forces, and political parties selected a temporary “caretaker” government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. The key opposition party the BNP has accepted the transition. However, some factions in the country are upset with the nature of the caretaker government’s reforms and the slow progress towards elections.
Bangladesh is a country with strong economic potential and many opportunities for progress, but its transition from corrupt populism/creeping authoritarianism back to democracy needs to be aided by outside economic help and by being insulated from disordering geopolitical rivalries. Bangladesh’s transition is unfolding amidst Peak Disorder. This makes it very fraught. To delve deeper into events in Bangladesh and what they say about ‘Peak Disorder’, Jason is joined by Michael Kugelman the Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre.
To get more background information and perspective about this very complex topic pleasure join our substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links:
Michael’s sterling interview with The Daily Star that gets into the geopolitics of the situation:
https://www.thedailystar.net/opinion/geopolitical-insights/news/the-geopolitics-sheikh-hasinas-fall-explained-3676511
Michael’s bio: https://www.wilsoncenter.org/person/michael-kugelman
For a real concise takes on the facts of what has happened in Bangladesh:
https://theconversation.com/bangladeshs-protests-explained-what-led-to-pms-ouster-and-the-challenges-that-lie-ahead-236190
A good overview podcast by ABC (Australia) about how we got to where we are now which also interviews Michael Kugelman:
https://www.abc.net.au/listen/programs/rearvision/bangladesh-politics-and-the-business-of-remembering/104180756
And for an update on the current state of play in Bangladesh and what might lie ahead:
https://apnews.com/article/bangladesh-yunus-hasina-khaleda-zia-election-3525d4c39c748a974f67b62efadb23b9
And for the conceptual take on how Tyrants rise and fall revisit Ep 67 with Marcel Dirsus: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e
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What does getting kidnapped in Mexico City have in common with taking Western backpackers on tours of North Korean? Each provides key insights into the disordering essence of how autocracies function and why symbolism is important to dictatorial securocrats. This rather chatty episode builds off of our more academic and systematic look at similar themes in “Dictators’ Disordering Quest for Internal Security” with Marcel Dirsus last Tuesday in episode 67.
In this episode, Jason is joined by the host of The Jordan Harbinger Show. The pair discuss: how Jordan got kidnapped (and Jason shares his own tale of being kidnapped in Syria and Lebanon); what life is really like in North Korea; why symbols matter so much in dictatorships; the psychology of Xi Jinping; how to deter China from invading Taiwan; why dictators are so fragile and touchy about being made to look bad; and how campaign finance reform could help us order the disorder.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
To listen to Jordan’s show visit https://www.jordanharbinger.com/
Check out his episode ‘A Divorce Lawyer’s Guide to Lasting Love Part One’ here: https://www.jordanharbinger.com/james-sexton-a-divorce-lawyers-guide-to-lasting-love-part-one/
And our previous episode with Marcel Dirsus on the innerworkings of Tyrannies here: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/bcd89a117331e217c82af1d018e28d9e
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To celebrate Disorder’s One Year Anniversary, Alex and Jason recap the shows Greatest Hits, share their thoughts on their favourite guests; explain how their views of the world have changed over the last year; speculate on how today’s disorder is different from what came before; and disagree slightly agreeably about how the moral failings of the Anglo-American colonial empire of bygone days is or is not different from the Chinese and Russian empires of today. After proceeding through these reminiscences, we take listeners questions about Putin, AI, China, imperialism, how recording the podcast has changes how Jason and Alex see the world, and if there are any new orderers on the world stage.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links:
Listen to our first episode here: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/63ff389b562a075c49a81c86e239b85c
And listen to some of the other favourite episodes that this episode references,
With Bill Browder (on Navalny’s death): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/a36160dede2b990a59c34c3c4e8eeece
With Evegenia Kara Murza (whose husband has just been released in the prisoner swap): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/8eff8cc4caece2708249ee7bec567ad8
With Miles Taylor (author of the famous Anonymous article in the NYT): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/42c97d2971c72d251b59b92d47d6c0ed
With Armen Sarkissian (the former President of Armenian - Part 1): https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/380a900513c99b34f849e4d74119f46a
And the one containing arguably our greatest moment with Kurt Volker: https://pod.link/1706818264/episode/f20a464df3a71e64f887891339b720dc
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From Putin to Qadhafi, from Mohammed bin Salman to Trump… our current era of Enduring Disorder is filled with many Tyrants and Tyrant-wannabes. But why do Tyrants tend to seek Disorder rather than Order? The answer appears to lie in Tyrants’ Endless Quest for Regime Security. Dictators have a marked predilection to put their own desire to cling to power in the short-and medium-term above all other considerations – even if that means deliberately making their countries’ economies and militaries inefficient or willfully spreading Disorder around the globe.
To discuss the deep connections between Tyranny and Disorder, we are joined by Marcel Dirsus, Jason’s old Oxford chum, former Libya-Analysis LLC contractor, and author of ‘How Tyrants Fall: And How Nations Survive’. Marcel is a Non-Resident Fellow at the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University and a member of the Standing Expert Committee on Terrorism and Interior Security at the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung.
Jason and Marcel dig into the psychology of tyrannical leaders and the structural factors that push tyrants to behave as they do. They explore the concept of the ‘selectorate’ — i.e. who really matters in a given society to keep the ruler in power. They explain how tyrannies have a much smaller and more elite ‘selectorate’ than democracies… this explains why pleasing these very few elites in the immediate term is the key variable required to keep dictators in power… and since those few pillars of regime support might flip at any moment, tyranny is actually an incredibly brittle form of government… and can actually collapse at any moment if its support pillars are removed
In the Ordering the Disorder section, Marcel and Jason urge democratic nations to realize the true extent of weakness prevalent in most dictatorships and target tyrants’ henchmen to help create a more Ordered globe.
Twitter: @DisorderShow
Subscribe to our Substack: https://natoandtheged.substack.com/
Producer: George McDonagh
Exec Producer: Neil Fearn
Show Notes Links
What is the Selectorate and what are the implications of ‘Selectorate Theory’ on how we understand international politics? oxfordre.com/politics/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-293
Get Marcel’s book at https://www.hachette.co.uk/titles/marcel-dirsus/how-tyrants-fall/9781399809481/
But if you want to actually learn about Libya rather than simply reading some kooky stories that Marcel includes about Qadhafi, get Jason’s book: https://globalenduringdisorder.com/
Read more about Marcel at https://www.economist.com/culture/2024/07/17/taking-on-the-global-brotherhood-of-despots
Visit his website https://www.marceldirsus.com/
Visit his substack https://thehundred.substack.com/
And for the reference to Nadav Safran’s ‘Saudi Arabia: The Ceaseless Quest for Security’: https://www.amazon.com/Saudi-Arabia-Ceaseless-Quest-Security/dp/0674789857
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Jason and Alex explain the implications for global order of the first, and possibly onl,y 2024 Presidential Candidates Debate btw Harris and Trump. It was like a legendary heavyweight boxing match between a woman auditioning to be the mega-orderer-in-chief and the most well established disorderer the world has ever scene. And it ended in a more dramatic fashion than even an epic Howard Cosell play-by-play: Down goes Frazier, Down goes Frazier. Trump acknowledged that he cannot go against Putin’s wishes, that he does not want the Ukrainians to win the war; and then when taunted by Kamala about the small ‘crowd-size’ at his rallies, Trump simply imploded: spewing grievance-filled conspiratorial lies about Haitian Migrants eating dogs in Springfield, Ohio, that Democrats order doctors to kill babies after birth, and that the Biden-Harris administration gives transgender transition surgeries to illegal aliens. We at the Disorder Pod don’t want to count chickens before they are hatched, but were both favourably surprised by Kamala’s performance. As we pointed out in Ep 65, she does portray herself in a rigid, prosecutorial vibe and has been weak at explaining the specifics of her programmes. She might play identity cards a bit much for some middle-aged white males. And yet!, Sept 10, 2024 may go down in history as the first time that an opposing politician beat Donald J. Trump at the game of television. Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Jeb Bush failed at it in the 2016 Republican Primary. Hillary and Biden may have won debates against him but they never beat him at the game of television. Whereas, Harris made Trump look like a buffoon and she successfully baited and taunted him on live TV before tens of millions. She made the contrast extremely clear: that she wishes to Order the American economy and the world, while Trump wishes to Disorder it. Show Notes Links: Read Alex’s Byline Times Article, ‘A Stumbling Trump Receives a Well-Deserved Shellacking at the First Presidential Debate’: https://bylinetimes.com/2024/09/11/donald-trump-kamala-harris-debate-president-receives-shellacking-at-the-first-presidential-showdown/ Listen to Mehdi Hassan on the Guardian pod explain Gish-Galloping and how Donald Trump’s debate strategy usually works and how it can be (and was defeated): https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/today-in-focus/id1440133626?i=1000668961270 Listen to the 538 on the history Presidential Debates and how much they have swung the polls in the past: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/fivethirtyeight-politics/id1077418457?i=1000668933282 Listen to our take on Harris’s weaknesses with white men from yesterday here: https://open.spotify.com/episode/3MtV4SS0QjAQGN5p9distS?go=1&sp_cid=40c19a23f8ed49573a18b2bb3c9b9b95&utm_source=embed_player_p&utm_medium=desktop&nd=1&dlsi=c462b99a0ae7432c Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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