Folgen
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Ravi Balakrishnan and Francis Diamond discuss a deep dive into the growth, inflation, and rates outlook for the Euro area, UK, and Sweden, and various risk scenarios.
This podcast was recorded on 26 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4849003-0,https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4852356-0, for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Nora Szentivanyi and Michael Hanson discuss their key takeaways from the October CPI reports and the outlook for the coming year. Global core inflation remained sticky at 3.1% both on a three-month annualized and year-ago basis, while headline inflation ticked higher to 2.9%oya. While the sectoral gap between services and goods is finally narrowing there is considerable country variation with respect to the strength of services inflation. The coming trade war is likely to temper global growth while adding to inflation. The timing and magnitude of the coming US policy shifts remain highly uncertain and should add to the variation in inflation outcomes.
This podcast was recorded on 26 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4852504-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4845587-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4773721-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Fehlende Folgen?
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We published our year-ahead outlook this week and discuss the key points in the latest Weekender. Against a backdrop of our high-for-long soft-landing scenario, two key developments are the recent US election and the shift in cycle drivers from global forces to more domestic factors. Recent data on the November flash PMIs underscore growing divergences.
Speakers:
Joseph Lupton
Nora Szentivanyi
This podcast was recorded on 22 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Haibin Zhu, joined by Grace Ng and Tingting Ge, will discuss what the red sweep and tariff war 2.0 risk means for China, and implications on Taiwan and Hong Kong. Two major themes affect our 2025 growth outlook, namely China’s domestic policy shift since late September, and the Trump win in the US presidential election. While we think the odds of a 10% across-the-board tariff in 2025 are low, in part for procedural reasons, the probability of a significant tariff hike on China imports has increased significantly. This stands in contrast with our previous assumption of no major change in trade policy in 2025 and has significant implications on the Greater China 2025 macro growth and policy outlook.
This podcast was recorded on Nov 22, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4842856-0, and https://jpmorganmarkets.com/research/content/GPS-4773721-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved.
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Katie, Nicolaie and Steven debate exposures across EM Edge to the potential policy shifts of a second Trump administration. EM Edge would seem the most exposed given their low diversification, high funding needs, openness to trade and shallower local capital markets. Yet, starting points are generally more favorable than compared to past global shocks as fundamentals have improved. Reliance on volatile market funding is also less and FX reserves are higher. While Edge economies, as with most global economies, would be exposed, there are relative points of pressure and other economies that could benefit. The podcast debates three channels through which Edge economies could be exposed to policy changes in the US: trade, immigration and funding conditions.
Speakers:Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy ResearchSteven Palacio, EM, Economics Research
This podcast was recorded on 20 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4837413-0, https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4844291-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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The combination of resurgent consumer spending and persistently sticky inflation near 3% is challenging consensus calls for Goldilocks. Next week’s flash PMIs will be the first data prints post US election, and we will be closely watching the vibe expressed in the future output components. Manufacturing should indicate caution given trade war concerns, while the broader all-industry measure could show some widening divergence between the US and the rest of the world.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 15 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Bruce Kasman and Joe Lupton discuss how the US election is a material shock to the baseline, but one that reinforces our view that pushed back against a consensus for an immaculate disinflation. A careful assessment of the coming supply and demand shocks to the global economy will lead us to expect diverse growth outcomes but undeniably higher inflation and less policy easing.
This podcast was recorded on November 8, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Ahead of the all-important US election, the data tracking at the start of 4Q is mixed but supportive of a resilient expansion. A noisy October US labor report should be faded, but strong 3Q GDP growth and healthy income gains are constructive. Nevertheless, moderating wages gains should help the Fed ease at next week’s meeting while presenting an open mind about December. Elsewhere, we look for a 25bp cut from the BoE next week as well as an announcement of further China stimulus.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 1 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the October jobs report.
Speakers:
Michael Feroli
Samantha Azzarello
This podcast was recorded on 1 November 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Katie, Nicolaie, Gbolahan and Steven discuss takeaways for EM Edge economies from last week’s IMF/World Bank meetings. Investors started the year ready to increase their exposures to EM Edge economies spurred by improved fundamentals, attractive valuations and reduced US recession risks. Improving fiscal and current accounts, better growth, high nominal (and real) rates and structural reform efforts drove interest in a diverse set of Edge economies. That interest remains intact. Yet, stories remain highly idiosyncratic which warrants differentiation. Following an overview of broad themes, the podcast goes into the most top-of-mind frontier markets from last week’s meetings.
Speakers:
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy ResearchGbolahan Taiwo, EM, Economic and Policy ResearchNicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc, EM, Economic and Policy ResearchSteven Palacio, EM, Economics Research
This podcast was recorded on 31 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4829599-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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The JPMorgan conference delivered a consensus around a Goldilocks macro scenario even as participants say US election outcomes look like a coin-toss. The risks of a blue versus red wave, and versus divided government lead to varied outcomes on growth, inflation, and the Fed. All of these are discussed.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 25 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Nora Szentivanyi and Raphael Brun-Aguerre discuss their takeaways from the September CPI reports and how the incoming data are shaping the outlook for global inflation and monetary policy. Global headline inflation eased further to 2.7%oya, aided by falling energy prices––a decline that has supported consumer purchasing power. But core inflation is proving to be sticky around 3% after stepping down from 3.4%ar in 1H24. Services inflation globally continues to run above pre-pandemic norms, even as goods prices have returned to their pre-pandemic inflation rate. However, persistent divergences in both domestic demand and supply are now starting to drive greater variation in inflation outcomes.
This podcast was recorded on October 24, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4824594-0 , https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4820478-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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A number of recent developments serve to reduce downside growth risks globally. In part this reflects strong US demand indicators and substantial front-loaded China policy supports, which serve to materially raise our current quarter global growth forecast.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on October 18, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Katie, Nicolaie and Steven discuss the latest economic trends in the EM Edge. Inflation for most EM Edge economies, outside of Africa, have converged to their pre-pandemic norms. The direction from here is upward, in our view. While we are not overly concerned yet, we are monitoring risks rising global food prices, increases in global energy prices and a continued hawkish re-pricing of Fed policy that brings EM Edge currencies under pressure.
SpeakersKatherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy ResearchSteven Palacio, EM, Economics Research
This podcast was recorded on October 15, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4813316-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 20XX JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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The improving US activity data has trimmed the downside tail, reinforcing views for a Goldilocks-type soft-landing. However, with core inflation running at a pace little different from a year-ago (around 3%ar), more respect for a high-for-long scenario is also needed. Not all are in same boat, and Euro area growth weakness is likely to get the ECB to cut rates next week. Enthusiasm for a China fiscal bazooka has built, but we do not see this as likely.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 11 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Haibin Zhu and Nora Szentivanyi discuss China’s latest policy easing measures and what to expect in coming weeks and months. Three aspects of the upcoming fiscal announcement will be important to watch: magnitude, composition and forward guidance. We do not expect the October fiscal package to exceed 2 trillion yuan, with only modest direct support for consumers, but additional fiscal easing is likely further down the road. Accommodative fiscal policy is important not only in the near term, but also into 2025 when the Chinese economy may face a series of adverse shocks.
This podcast was recorded on 10 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4813222-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures.
© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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A much better than expected US payroll report, along with a quick end to the port strike, shift the risk distribution away from recession. Whether this adds probability to the Goldilocks outturn or the boil-the-frog scenario we have warned about is still uncertain, but the odds of rates staying higher than previously thought are clearly up. The global goods sector still looks grim, as does European growth. We remain skeptical about the medium run outlook for China even if seeing potential upside to the near-term.
Speaker:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 4 October 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Michael Feroli, Chief US Economist, and Samantha Azzarello, Head of Content Strategy, discuss the Sept jobs report.
This podcast was recorded on October 4, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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Growth was relatively strong across the EM Edge economies in 2Q. Nicolaie, Steven and Katie debate the influence that diverging growth risks in US, China and Europe has for growth in the Edge. While the US influence may predominate, fiscal and monetary policies, structural reforms and changing trade patterns (among others) enable some differentiation between Edge economies. Differing cyclical conditions in part explain why Fed easing won’t alter most Edge central banks’ reaction functions.
Speakers:
Katherine Marney, Emerging Markets Economic and Policy Research
Nicolaie Alexandru, EM, Economic and Policy Research
Steven Palacio, EM, Economics Research
This podcast was recorded on October 1, 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients can view the related report at https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4803854-0 and https://www.jpmm.com/research/content/GPS-4799145-0 for more information; please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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A set of divergences in the global economy raise tail risks to the expansion. While we see numerous reasons for a soft-landing, next week’s PMIs and US labor market news are likely to exacerbate the tensions. Despite this, US growth is robust while Europe is held back by a weak Germany. China’s policy shift this week is encouraging only if a signal of more to come. Joe shares pics from his trip to the North Branch Outing Club in Northern Michigan.
Speakers:
Bruce Kasman
Joseph Lupton
This podcast was recorded on 27 September 2024.
This communication is provided for information purposes only. Institutional clients please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. © 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved. This material or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of J.P. Morgan. It is strictly prohibited to use or share without prior written consent from J.P. Morgan any research material received from J.P. Morgan or an authorized third-party (“J.P. Morgan Data”) in any third-party artificial intelligence (“AI”) systems or models when such J.P. Morgan Data is accessible by a third-party. It is permissible to use J.P. Morgan Data for internal business purposes only in an AI system or model that protects the confidentiality of J.P. Morgan Data so as to prevent any and all access to or use of such J.P. Morgan Data by any third-party.
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