Folgen
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Dale Henderson (@henderson_dale on X) is the Managing Director & CEO of Pilbara Minerals. I was honored to have him join me for the 200th episode.
Topics:
Pilbara’s four strategic pillars
The wild ride for lithium (& Pilbara)
Swing supply created by 2022 pricing
The steepening cost curve
Unsustainable pricing in 2024
The coming shortage
Continuing to be nimble
Managing through volatility
The POSCO JV & other world class partners
Where Pilbara sits on the cost curve
Growth and the Latin Resources acquisition
The arrival of big balance sheets to lithium
Brazil as a lithium jurisdiction
Keeping the team motivated
Two questions from Dale
Rapid fire
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Dan Blondal aka "the man with one tweet" is the CEO of Nano One (TSX: NANO / OTC: NNOMF).
Topics:
A world class suite of partners
The battery challenge
Why ex China cathode capacity matters
China's current LFP dominance
Why the west has to do LFP differently
The importance of ESS as a catalyst
"Design one - build many"
Will Japan make a battery comeback?
The importance of the DOD investment
Staying the course
Rapid fire
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Fehlende Folgen?
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The majority of this episode is a presentation I made at the Panorama Minero "Lithium South America" event in Jujuy, Argentina on October 9, 2024. The presentation starts at ~ minute 23. The episode begins with a interview with Alejandro Columbo from Panorama Minero. We discuss what Panorama Minero does and how this event has grown over the last decade to global significance.
My presentation "Lithium's Bright Future" also includes a discussion of the history of the industry and how the west's failure to act early in the last decade allowed China to become the current dominant player in lithium ion batteries and EVs. Yet the past isn't necessarily prologue.
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My favorite event on the annual lithium calendar is Panorama Minero's "Lithium South America". My guests on this episode are Daniel Jimenez of iLi Markets, Roland Chavasse of the International Lithium Association and JP Vargas the MD of Galan Lithium.
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Sid Subramani has global responsibility for lithium projects at Hatch (@HATCHglobal on X), a professional services and engineering company.
Topics:
The Hatch role in lithium
A typical engagement
Red flags
Projects: majors vs juniors
Big Energy vs Big Mining
DLE – when & how significant?
Common project mistakes
The importance of grade
Why projects are late
QPs
Lepidolite
Lithium jurisdictions
Specifications
Cap-Ex: China vs others
The cost curve
People
Rapid fire
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Katie Pyfer is a Senior Director of Energy Storage responsible for global pricing at Albemarle. She has a PhD in analytical chemistry.
Topics:
Product analysis
Managing market cycles
Price discovery
"Micro" managing
Battery demand
Commodity or specialty chemical?
Tolling
The blending game
Qualification
Competitive tension
The benefit of lithium auctions
Price transparency
Contracts
The future of "futures"
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I answer listener questions on this episode.
Topics:
The Future of DLE
Argentina production in 2025
Black Swan events
Can the US work with China?
The Pilbara/LRS deal
Is it time for more M&A?
US production in 2030
EU lithium potential
Hard rock vs brine
The Salton Sea
Is LFP the future?
Oversupply - how long?
SQM as a barometer of price
Rapid fire
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Lisa Rebora is the Head of Global Lithium at Equinor, a global energy company (NYSE: EQNR). Equinor recently invested in two of Standard Lithium's projects in Arkansas and Texas but has lithium ambitions beyond the US.
Topics:
Who is Equinor?
Capital commitment to low carbon solutions
Why lithium?
The long look at DLE
Why Arkansas & Texas?
The relationship with Standard Lithium
The importance of Koch as a partner
Building a lithium team
Strength in Partnerships
Challenges getting to market
Market volatility
The lithium growth story
M&A
The million dollar question
The British invasion in Arkansas
Rapid fire
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Iola Hughes is the Head of Research at Rho Motion, a battery information services company that is part of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Iola is @RhoMoIola on X
Topics:
Cathode chemistry
GWH growth numbers
China's amazing performance
Pack sizes
The EV slowdown (ex China)
ICE-EV price parity
Does BYD need the US?
Will Tesla get the boot in China?
Revival of the hybrids
India
Sodium ion
OEM strategies
Solid state batteries
The ESS market
Rapid fire
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My guest is industry veteran Daniel Jimenez. This is my first live podcast recorded in Fastmarket's "Live Lounge" during their recent Lithium and Battery Raw Materials Conference in Las Vegas.
Topics:
Lithium market sentiment
Excess capacity across the lithium ion battery supply chain
Recalibrating unrealistic North American and EU EVexpectations
Africa – opaque on volume and quality?
SQM as a barometer of the industry
Codelco and the Chilean state
Tianqi’s failed dream in Chile
SQM in Australia
ALB – strategy or tactics?
Big Oil’s move into lithium
Can the oil companies use DLE to transform the industry?
Arcadium – synergy?
Chile – outside of the Atacama
Argentina’s lithium future
Bolivia
Brazil’s hard rock boom
Canada as a lithium province
The future of US lithium
Who will be the marginal cost producer?
The incentive price
Lepidolite
Building lithium ion supply chains ex China
Galan’s project
Rapid fire
Auction advice for Albemarle
Eramet - DLE's first full scale plant or another black eye?
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My guests are Standard Lithium CEO Robert Mintak and Dr Andy Robinson, President and COO.
Topics:
Equinor - another great partner
Focusing on high grade brine
De-risking DLE with Koch
Project timelines
What the OEMs are looking for
Why the Smackover is so significant
3 projects with a consistent flowsheet
The Equinor deal structure
Arkansas & Texas as lithium jurisdictions
Continuing to build the team
Managing 3 projects vs 1
Carbonate or hydroxide?
Standard's place on the cost curve
What's next?
Rapid fire
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I take a deep dive into Ganfeng's history and what drove their success. I question why the world's largest lithium company, Albemarle, doesn't have the same vision and ability to get things done as Ganfeng. The episode opens with MLC CEO Paul Hogan briefly explaining why lithium may be a significant part of his company's future.
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Over the years SQM has declined multiple invitations to be a guest on the podcast. I am devoting this episode to my thoughts on SQM: past, present and future.
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My guests are Gene Morgan and Clint Van Marrewijk, founders of brinefield services provider ZelandezGene is @ZelandezGene on Twitter/X
Clint is @Clint_Van on Twitter/X
Topics:
The "Schlumberger" of lithium
Speeding up brine projects
"ErLi" - modular lithium production
The impact of price cycles
Operating in Argentina vs Chile vs Bolivia
Water use
The Zelandez treasure trove of brine data
DLE and brine reinjection
The team and the culture
The "BFT"
Challenges working at altitude
To "BG" or not to "BG"
Competition
Rapid fire
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In this episode I give my current thoughts on price as well as discussing my past calls both good & bad. I explain how I believe China has taken control of the lithium price narrative and the spodumene market, why I think brine based lithium returns to the lithium pole position in the coming decade and then I answer listener questions on everything from Canada, to what I invest in, to Brazil's lithium future to solid state batteries potential impact on the lithium supply chain.
I likely repeat myself a few times given that tends to happen when I talk for 40 minutes without a script.
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This episode includes three guests: Mac Whale of Cormark, Cole McGill of Stifel and Daniel Jimenez of iLi Markets.
I joined the group on a site visit to Minera Exar's Cauchari operation. Minera Exar is a JV between Lithium Argentina and Ganfeng located in Jujuy Province, Argentina.
We discuss what we saw and how each guest evaluates a project that is ramping up:
1) What were they key questions they wanted answered?
2) What was their overall impression of the project?
This episode is brought to you by Zelandez and Mississippi Lime.
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Michael Dunne (@dunne_insights) on X/Twitter is the CEO of Dunne Insights a global intelligence & advisory service that provides insights on EVs, batteries, and charging with a particular emphasis on Asia.
Topics:
Son of a "car spy"
China's lead in EVs
The demise of Detroit in China
Can the west catch-up?
BYD - the early days
China's other EV suppliers
CATL's significance
Can the US be a meaningful battery supplier?
Toyota's hybrid strategy
Should China be allowed in the US market?
Advice for POTUS
BYD in Brazil
The Art (of EV) War
How China out negotiates competitors
Vin Fast in the US
Rapid fire
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This episode is brought to you by Zelandez and Mississippi Lime. It is the audio of a presentation I gave in late March at the Future Facing Commodities Event in Singapore with some additional commentary. The presentation slides can be found at: www.globallithium.net/articles
Topics:
In the beginning there was North Carolina hard rock
Questions you should be asking about the lithium market
Where did 2023 "oversupply" come from?
China battery players influence on lithium price
Increasing capital intensity
The cost curve
Negative sentiment
Demand: all about batteries in 2024
Lithium price: a many splendored thing
Bottom "price" fishing
Supply
"Swing supply"
This cycle vs the last one
Do the work!
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Jon Evans (@jdevans4005 on X) is the CEO of Lithium Americas and one of the most influential leaders in the lithium industry.
Topics:
Building Thacker Pass – the largest lithium resource inNorth America
The team
The project timeline
Lessons from Cauchari
Lithium through a national security lens
GM as a partner
LFP in the US
Lessons from the DOE loan process
The importance of LAC’s Tech Center
Partnering with local stakeholders
The lithium market
Dealing with the anti mining crowd
Improving price discovery
Why Jon didn’t take the easier career path
Motivating the team in hard times
Rapid fire
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Seth Goldstein (@SethGMStar1 on X) is an Equity Strategist and Chair of the Electric Vehicle Committee at Morningstar. This is his third appearance on the podcast.Topics:
Defining a top pick at Morningstar
Why Seth believes the lithium stocks he follows areundervalued
Bullish on LAC and Thacker Pass
LAC’s DOE loan
Incentivizing a North America battery supply chain
Lithium Argentina’s impressive start-up at Cauchari
Seth’s candid thoughts on Albemarle & their pricestrategy
SQM & Arcadium
Arcadium’s long struggle with expansions
The global EV growth story
The politics of EVs in the US
BYD & Tesla
Lithium prices
CATL’s inventory “tells” & the impact on lithium demand
Lepidolite costs
ESS
Rapid fire
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