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An eventful election year concludes with the curtain soon to rise on a second Trump presidency and the possibility of dramatic changes to how Washington conducts itself.
Kimberley Strassel, the Wall Street Journalâs âPotomac Watchâ columnist, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster for a temperature check on Trumpâs comeback: the odds of his ending lawfare and weeding out recalcitrant bureaucracy while also extending his 2017 tax cuts; plus whether Elon Muskâs DOGE initiative will indeed make the federal government more efficient. Later, the fellows offer their choices of 2024âs winners and losers, and what they got right and wrong this past year, as well as something big to expect in 2025. Finally, Sir Niall reflects on the emotional pull of knighthood, having recently been on the kneeling side of his investiture ceremony at Windsor Castle.
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In a special âmailbagâ episode, Hoover senior fellows Sir Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster answer audience questions ranging from current geopolitics quandaries and viable economic models to career and parenting advice, plus their personal choices of dream guests.
Among the topics: a neglected African continent; Russiaâs military and economic sustainability and related policy options that the incoming Trump administration will face; parallels between Taiwan and preâWorld War I Europe; rating Javier Mileiâs performance in Argentina; job options for aspiring PhD candidates; plus the panelâs recommendations for foundational books to instill honor and patriotism in children (spoiler alert: Niall talking Tolkien).
Submit your questions for our next mailbag episode at Hoover.org/AskGoodFellows and see if your question gets selected and answered!
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Fehlende Folgen?
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After a âchangeâ election that returned Donald Trump to the presidency, what can Americans expect in the way of foreign policy and national security departures from the current administration?
Former US secretary of state and CIA director Mike Pompeo joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss possible new directions for Americaâs national security apparatus. Also discussed: the Biden administrationâs allowing Ukraine to fire long-range missiles into Russia; how to counter Chinese threats to Taiwanâs independence; Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahuâs being declared a âwar criminalâ subject to arrest; plus the likelihood that Elon Muskâs Department of Government Efficiency can reshape the federal government.
Recorded on November 22, 2024.
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Donald Trump will return to the Oval Office in a manner few saw coming â he won Americaâs popular vote; his coattails may lead to Republican control of Congress â while progressive institutions (legacy media, Hollywood, wokeism, and a tired Democratic playbook) take a beating.
New York Times opinion columnist Bret Stephens joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss an American election that defied conventional wisdom â and how Trump should proceed in the weeks ahead (key cabinet appointments, foreign and economic policies) given the surprise gift of an Election Night mandate.
Recorded on November 7, 2024.
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Imagine an alternate universe in which the American Revolution fails or where Russia rejects Leninism in its infant stage.
Live from the Hoover Institutionâs Fall Retreat, Lord Andrew Roberts, renowned historian and the Hoover Institutionâs Bonnie and Tom McCloskey Distinguished Visiting Fellow, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss various historical counterfactuals, including British forces winning the pivotal Battle of Saratoga in 1777; Vladimir Lenin being assassinated before Communism takes root in Russia; John F. Kennedy surviving his motorcade through Dallas; plus China rejecting economic reforms and instead refashioning itself as a second North Korea.
Recorded on October 17, 2024.
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Why has Israel repeatedly disregarded and gone the opposite way from the White Houseâs entreaties regarding the Middle East? And does the West fully fathom that Ukraine is losing its war of attrition with Russia?
Walter Russell Mead, âGlobal Viewâ columnist for the Wall Street Journal, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss the latest developments in those two combat theaters. Next, the fellows choose policies they feel have gone neglected in Americaâs presidential election, weigh in on one punditâs assessment that the US is headed for âthe greatest mental health crisis in the history of the countryâ should Donald Trump prevail, and reflect on the passing of Grateful Dead founding member Phil Lesh.
Recorded on October 28, 2024.
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Hot-wiring pagers and walkie-talkies to take out Hezbollah operatives: Was Israelâs tacticâlike something from an Ian Fleming novelâa justifiable act of national security or a violation of international law?
Victor Davis Hanson, the Hoover Institutionâs Martin and Illie Anderson Senior Fellow and a military historian and classicist, joins GoodFellows regulars John Cochrane and H.R. McMaster to discuss the latest in the Middle East, as well as whether it was wise for Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy to tour a munitions factory in the battleground state of Pennsylvania on the verge of Americaâs national election. Next, the three Baby Boomer panelists reflect on their generationâs legacy, plus which singer deserves a statue in the US Capitol alongside country music legend Johnny Cash.
Recorded on September 24, 2024.
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The Secret History of the Shadow Campaign That Saved the 2020 Election by Molly BallThe Second World Wars: How the First Global Conflict Was Fought and Won by Victor Davis HansonThe Year That Broke Politics: Collusion and Chaos in the Presidential Election of 1968 by Luke A. NichterBasic Economics by Thomas Sowell Free to Choose: A Personal Statement by Milton Friedman and Rose FriedmanWith the Old Breed: At Peleliu and Okinawa by E. B. SledgeMemoirs of General William Tecumseh Sherman by William Tecumseth Sherman -
What was it like to navigate Americaâs national security apparatus all the while coping with a mercurial commander-in-chief? Hoover senior fellow H.R. McMaster tells all in his new best-seller At War with Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the White House â with additional insights provided by Hoover senior fellow Niall Ferguson, whose forthcoming biography of Henry Kissinger likewise will touch on national security and White House intrigue. After that: Niall and H.R. dissect the previous nightâs presidential debate, assess the impact of Taylor Swiftâs endorsement of Kamala Harris (spoiler alert: boy-dad Niallâs not a âSwiftieâ), and offer thoughts on the perils of non-historians peddling âanti-historyâ and where the two fellows were 23 years ago during the 9/11 attacks on America.
Recorded on September 11, 2024.
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In a topsy-turvy election year, does Americaâs 2024 presidential contest summon ghosts from 1968 â or, is a late-breaking 1980-style landslide in the cards? Historian Niall Ferguson, the Hoover Institutionâs Milbank Family Senior Fellow, appears solo on this âminiâ edition of GoodFellows (or is it GoodFellow?) to discuss the current political landscape, what roles an aging electorate and the âgender gapâ will play in Americaâs election, plus a fondness for tariffs shared by two very different Republicans: Donald Trump and William McKinley (aka âthe tariff kingâ). Niall also discusses the challenges in raising two young sons in the Information Age, and his renewed appreciation for the works of Kurt Vonnegut.
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John Cochrane, the Hoover Institutionâs Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow and the author of The Fiscal Theory of Price Level (2023), discusses misconceptions around how the Federal Reserve goes about its business; why economic policy factors into the great-power competition with China; his fascination with Calvin Coolidge; plus why (in Johnâs opinion) Portuguese Water Dogs are the kings of all canines.
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In a special mini version of GoodFellows (just one wise man, not the usual three), Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, the Hoover Institutionâs Fouad and Michelle Ajami Senior Fellow and author of the soon-to-be-released At War with Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House, discusses a possible sea change in American foreign policy and the view from other world capitals. On the 40th anniversary of his commissioning as a US Army second lieutenant, McMaster reflects on the challenges that tested his West Point Class of 1984 (motto: âThe Best of the Corpsâ) versus those awaiting the Class of 2024 (âLike None Beforeâ).
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Is a regional war across the Middle East about to erupt? And what to make of a Venezuelan regime that doesnât honor election results? Matthew Kroenig, Vice President and Senior Director of the Atlantic Councilâs Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and coauthor of the book We Win They Lose: Republican Foreign Policy and the New Cold War, joins Hoover senior fellows John Cochrane and H.R. McMaster to discuss lessons from deterrence (or a lack thereof) past, present, and future. Next, John explains how a market meltdown underscores a fragile world economy, followed by a discussion of two historical milestones: 50 years since Richard Nixonâs resignation (with public trust in government today significantly lower than in Watergateâs heyday); and Herbert Hooverâs 150th birthday (as to his humanitarian pursuits, where would our fellows be without Hooverâs namesake institution?).
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An already surreal political year becomes all the more quizzical as former president Donald Trump literally dodges an assassinâs bullet soon before making a surprise pick of Ohio senator J. D. Vance as his running mate; followed by President Biden unexpectedly ending his reelection bid and Vice President Kamala Harris swiftly becoming the Democratic Partyâs presumptive presidential nominee. Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster do their best to make sense of these summertime blockbusters, including whether Harris alters her partyâs course (triangulate or double down on the past four years?); the pros and cons of Trump-brand nationalism and that philosophyâs hold over a restyled Republican Party; Vanceâs qualifications for national office; plus cautionary tales from Bidenâs lone presidential term and the chances of more surprises to come before Election Day in America.
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How do a historian, an economist, and a geostrategist make the best use of their summers? In an abbreviated GoodFellows, Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster reveal a few of their summertime preferences: favorite leisurely pursuits (land, air, and sea), their go-to foods and drinks, family gatherings (all three are grandparents), recommended books and movies, plus what research and writing lies ahead (plenty of writing and travel). Among the revelations: summer aficionados they are, streaming âvidiotsâ theyâre not; plus, on a conflicting Fourth of July, a dual citizenâs âspecial relationshipâ with his native UK and adopted America.
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A new âcold warâ presents a familiar challenge for America: how to curb a rival great powerâs ambitions. Matt Pottinger, a Hoover Institution visiting fellow and editor of the forthcoming book The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss how best to discourage China from moving on its island neighbor. After that: the fellows debate the wisdom of the UKâs fast-tracked national election; plus what, if anything, has surprised them during this yearâs round of episodes (spoiler alert: plenty of chickensâbad policies, poorly run universitiesâcame home to roost).
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Historians differ over the need to explore âcounterfactualsââthe study of scenarios that never happenedâand what they can tell us about historical causation. Stephen Kotkin, the Hoover Institutionâs Kleinheinz Senior Fellow and noted historian of Russia, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson and John Cochrane to discuss alternative historical outcomes: Stalin not surviving a two-front invasion in World War II and Churchill dying well beforehand; the American Revolution failing; the Beatles never spearheading pop musicâs British Invasion; a Trump victory in 2020 and its potential effect on the current state of affairs in Ukraine and the Middle East; plus a world in which COVID never happened (spoiler alert: it might have impacted John and Niallâs book sales).
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Did Israelâs failure to anticipate Hamasâs surprise attack in October 2023 stem from an overreliance on technical rather than human intelligence gathering? And is TikTok really a national security threat to America? Amy Zegart, the Hoover Institutionâs Morris Arnold and Nona Jean Cox Senior Fellow and author of Spies, Lies, and Algorithms: The History and Future of American Intelligence, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss Israelâs intel failure, whether TikTok is the menace itâs portrayed to be, plus how spy films (wrongly) shape the publicâs view on espionage. Next the fellows discuss the driving forces behind campus unrest across the US and how long the movement will last, followed by a series of other discussions: rebutting anti-American sentiment; the best fast-food burger; the popularity of âAustrian schoolâ economics in South America; and the likely winner were Niall, John, and H.R. to slug it out in a UFC octagon (spoiler alert: Niall and John donât like their chances).
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Nearly 40 years since the nation last saw comprehensive reform on the matter, the consensus is that Americaâs immigration system is sorely in need of updating to 21st-century realities. Reihan Salam, Manhattan Institute president and author of the book Melting Pot or Civil War?, joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss a smarter approach to welcoming newcomers to America. After that: the fellows discuss the ramifications of Iranâs not-so-surprise missile assault on Israel and what the coming months portend for those warring nations. Finally, John and H.R. (and a few surprise guests) welcome Niall to his âswinging 60sââHooverâs âinternational man of historyâ officially a sexagenarian on the same day this show was recorded.
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As the six-month anniversary of Hamasâs attack on Israel approaches, what to expect next in that struggleâand is the American president and Israeli prime ministerâs working relationship beyond repair? New York Times columnist Bret Stephens joins Hoover senior fellows Niall Ferguson, John Cochrane, and H.R. McMaster to discuss the warâs possible expansion into southern Lebanon and Stephensâs vision of a rebuilt Gaza as a Mediterranean version of Dubai. After that, a celebration of four years since GoodFellowsâ âshelter-in placeâ debut, including a little boasting (they saw inflation coming), a little contrition (they didnât see Trump rebounding), and some big takeaways on geopolitics, economics, and the pandemicâs legacy.
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