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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga to discuss the implications of a second Trump administration for Africa. They examine how African leaders have reacted to Donald Trump’s election victory and why some might favour a more transactional Washington. They assess the Biden administration’s legacy in Africa, the shifts a second Trump administration might bring and the possible plans of outside powers jockeying on the continent for influencing Washington. They look at what Trump’s presidency could mean for hotspots in Africa, including Somalia, Sudan, the DR Congo and the Sahel, as well as the future of UN peacekeeping missions on the continent. Finally, they discuss the risk that some African states may fragment, asking whether stronger, more unified leadership might help the continent navigate the volatile world order.
For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Africa program page.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Kyung-wha Kang, former South Korean Foreign Minister, CEO of Asia Society and Crisis Group trustee, to discuss North Korea and Russia’s strategic partnership, potential change Donald Trump might bring to U.S.-South Korea relations and what they mean for the Korean peninsula. They talk about North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia’s Kursk region to assist Moscow in its war against Ukraine, what Pyongyang and Moscow seek to gain from strengthening their ties and how Beijing views the relationship. They also look at how Washington’s alliance with Seoul might evolve under a second Trump presidency and what a potentially more confrontational U.S.-China policy means for the prospects for nuclear diplomacy with Pyongyang and for North East Asia’s security more broadly.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check our report The Next U.S. Administration and China Policy, our Q&A Plugging a New Gap in Monitoring Sanctions on North Korea, and our North East Asia regional page.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker, Michael Wahid Hanna, Renata Segura, Ali Wyne and Amanda Hsiao to talk about Donald Trump's return to the White House and what it means for the world, whether the wars in Europe and the Middle East or crises and flashpoints elsewhere. He first talks with Olga about Trump’s pledge to end the Ukraine war. Does that means subjugating Kyiv to Russian influence? What does a more transactional Washington portend for NATO and European security? Richard and Michael then look at how a Trump presidency might approach Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon, its confrontation with Iran and Middle East politics more broadly. Renata lays out what to make of Trump’s stated plans for mass deportations and his next administration’s Latin America policy. Richard then speaks with Ali and Amanda about China policy under the next Trump administration, the prospect of tariffs on Chinese exports and flashpoints around Taiwan and in the South China Sea.
Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.
For more, check out our commentary Toward a Plan B for Peace in Ukraine, our recent report The Next U.S. Administration and China Policy, and our United States program page.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Central Africa project director, Enrica Picco, to talk about Chad, the Central African Republic and Cameroon. They discuss Chadian President Mahamat Déby’s consolidation of power since the death of his fatherIdriss in 2021, his approach to dealing with the fallout from Sudan’s war and his outreach to new security partners alongside Chad’s traditional ally France. They also talk about neighbouring Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadéra’s increasing reliance on Russian mercenaries and Rwandan forces for protection and support in battling rebels on the country’s peripheries. They look at Cameroonian President Paul Biya’s recent absence from public view, questions surrounding the leadership succession and enduring separatist violence in Cameroon’s Anglophone areas. Lastly, they assess the gloomy prospects for more open politics in Central Africa, where leaders seem determined to stay in power at any cost, and the implications for the region’s stability.
Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.
For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our recent Q&A Arrest of Separatist Leader Puts Spotlight on Cameroon’s Anglophone Conflict and our Central Africa regional page.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Tahani Mustafa and Rob Blecher to discuss Israel’s intensified military operations in northern Gaza, the implications of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s death and what is left of Gaza a year into the war Israel launched in response to Hamas’ 7 October attacks. They talk about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, particularly in the besieged north, where access to aid remains restricted. They discuss the “generals’ plan”, a blueprint by former Israeli military officials that entails denying areas of Gaza aid so as to flush out militants, which Israel denies it is implementing. They examine what Sinwar’s death might mean for Hamas and who might replace him as leader. With prospects for a ceasefire bleak, they also reflect on the devastating toll and trauma the past year has wrought on Gaza and Palestinian society.
Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to read our recent statement In Gaza, the Time of Greatest Peril and our Israel/Palestine country page.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia director Olga Oliker and senior Ukraine analyst Lucian Kim to discuss the latest developments in the Ukraine war. They talk about President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent visit to the U.S., what we know about his proposed “victory plan” and his efforts to ensure support from both sides of the aisle in Washington. They unpack the latest battlefield dynamics, including Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, Russia’s slow but steady gains in eastern Ukraine and the challenges both sides face in maintaining the war effort. They examine how the approaching winter and Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. They also discuss former U.S. president and Republican candidate Donald Trump’s claims that he can quickly end the war by striking a deal with Russian president Vladimir Putin and the idea gaining currency in Western capitals of making firmer commitments to Ukraine about its NATO membership.
Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check our Ukraine country page and our visual explainer Ukraine War Map: Tracking the Frontlines.
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This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard speaks to Crisis Group colleagues Christina Boutros, David Wood, Ali Vaez and Mairav Zonszein about Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon, Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel, how Israel might respond and whether the Biden administration can avert an all-out confrontation that would draw the U.S. in. Richard first discusses with David and Christina Israel’s bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon, its humanitarian toll, whether Hezbollah will fight back and what Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s death could mean for the country’s politics and sectarian relations. Richard then talks with Ali about Iran’s motives for launching its ballistic missile attack on 1 October against Israel and how it might react to an Israeli strike. Finally, he talks to Mairav about how Israelis view the attack and the opportunities and risks that lie in pressing what appears to be Israel’s military advantage in Lebanon and against Iran directly.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest alert The U.S. Should Prevent All-out Israeli-Hizbollah War, our alert Staying the Guns of August: Avoiding All-out Regional War in the Middle East and our Middle East & North Africa page.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Heiko Wimmen and Michael Hanna about the intensified Israeli strikes on Hizbollah militants in Lebanon and whether both sides can still step back from the brink of all-out war. They unpack calculations on both sides, why Israel has ramped up attacks recently and why Hizbollah hasn’t yet responded more forcefully. They discuss what an escalation into a full-scale war would mean for both countries and the region. They also assess Washington’s role as the U.S. heads toward presidential elections, its failed efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and whether it can prevent a wider escalation absent one.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode read our recent conflict alert The U.S. Should Prevent All-out Israeli-Hizbollah War, and our Middle East & North Africa region page.
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In the first episode of Hold Your Fire’s new season, Richard Atwood is joined by Richard Gowan, Crisis Group’s UN director, to speak about the UN General Assembly high-level week and the UN’s global role. They look at how the UN has responded to the Gaza war and conflict’s impact on politics and debates at the UN. They talk about the UN’s efforts in other conflicts, including Ukraine, Sudan and Haiti, and challenges UN peacekeepers and envoys face elsewhere. They also discuss efforts to reform UN institutions and strengthen multilateral diplomacy and the potential implications of the U.S. elections, particularly if former President Donald Trump prevails, for the world body.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode check out our briefing Ten Challenges for the UN in 2024-2025, and our Updates from the UN General Assembly 2024.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Israel expert Mairav Zonszein, Israel-Palestine director Rami Dajani and U.S. program director Michael Hanna to talk about the latest from Gaza, prospects for a ceasefire and the risks of all-out war between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. They discuss how the violence in Gaza has evolved and the recent Israeli strike aimed at killing a top Hamas commander that, according to the local authorities, killed scores of civilians in a designated safe zone. They talk about ceasefire negotiations, whether the two sides have softened their positions on the main stumbling blocks – Hamas’s rejecton of a short-term ceasefire entailing the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners without guarantees that such a truce would lead to a permanent end to hostilities; and Israel’s refusal to agree to end the war without further degrading Hamas – and what governance in Gaza looks like absent a deal. They also cover the risk of a full-scale war between Israel and Hizbollah.
For more, check out our statement A Gaza Ceasefire and our Israel/Palestine country page.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s South Asia project director Samina Ahmed to talk about the fallout from the February elections in Pakistan, the deteriorating security in Pakistan’s border regions and Islamabad's relations with Pakistan’s neighbours. They unpack what’s behind the enduring popularity of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, and their standoff with the country’s political and military establishment. They discuss Khan’s efforts to repair his relations with the military, the legal cases levelled against him and the near-term chances of his release from jail. They also talk about the uptick in militant attacks in Pakistan’s border regions, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, claimed in part by the Pakistani Taliban, links between that group and the Afghan Taliban, and the strained relations between Islamabad and the authorities in Kabul. Lastly, they touch upon Pakistan’s evolving relations with India.
For more, check out our Pakistan country page.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Finnish President and former Crisis Group trustee Alexander Stubb to talk about next week’s NATO summit, European security and the war in Ukraine. They assess Finland’s role as one of NATO’s newest members, Europe’s defence spending and preparedness and the future of the alliance as Washington’s attention shifts to the Asia Pacific. They talk about the war in Ukraine and what hope there is for a negotiated settlement. They discuss how Western capitals can counter perceptions of their double standards in much of the rest of the world and the challenges facing peacemaking and diplomacy in an era of big power competition and a more multipolar world order.
For more, check out our recent podcast episodes Ukraine and European Security and U.S. Elections and the Future of Transatlantic Relations.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s senior Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi to talk about the uptick in attacks by Houthi rebels on cargo ships in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean and the prospects for an escalation of the conflict both in Yemen and the broader region. They unpack what the Houthis are trying to achieve with the attacks, which the group has linked to the war in Gaza, and their relations with Iran and other members of the “axis of resistance”. They assess how effective the U.S. and UK-led military response has been in deterring Houthi strikes. They also discuss how the attacks on Red Sea shipping have affected the talks with Saudi Arabia that were underway in Yemen before 7 October, and whether the latest escalation could reignite the war in Yemen after a period of relative calm. They also reflect on how the Houthis might respond to an all-out war between Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Q&A What Next After U.S. and UK Strikes on the Houthis? and our commentary The Gaza War Reverberates Across the Middle East.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia director Olga Oliker to talk about the latest from Ukraine, whether a negotiated settlement can be reached anytime soon and the future of European security. They discuss the Ukraine Summit of Peace in Switzerland and whether it met the expectations of Kyiv and other participants. They give an update on what is happening on the battlefield and prospects for a negotiated settlement to end the war. They also discuss Moscow’s and Kyiv’s demands, how they have evolved over the course of the war and what space exists for compromise. They talk about European security at large, the threat Western leaders see from Moscow and the deterrence value of Europe’s military build-up.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our reports Ukraine: How to Hold the Line and A Fraught Path Forward for Ukraine’s Liberated Territories and our Q&A An Embattled Kyiv Looks for Aid in the Diplomatic Arena.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Türkiye/Cyprus project director Nigar Göksel to talk about Türkiye’s foreign policy, particularly in its neighbourhood. They discuss the fallout of the Gaza war for Türkiye’s relations with Israel and the U.S., and Ankara’s evolving relations with other countries in the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as the Gulf. They assess Türkiye’s balancing act in Ukraine: as a NATO member supplying weapons to Kyiv and keen to check Russian influence in the Black Sea but keeping ties open to Moscow. They discuss Ankara’s close relations with Azerbaijan, prospects for Turkish normalisation with Armenia and Russian and Iranian influence in the South Caucasus. They also talk about Türkiye’s operations against Kurdish militants in Iraq and Syria and how Iran views Ankara’s involvement in both countries. They examine whether the past few years represent a new phase in Turkish foreign policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our commentaries Türkiye’s Growing Drone Exports and The Gaza War Reverberates Across the Middle East as well as last year’s episode with Nigar Drones and Diplomacy: Will Türkiye’s Elections Change its Middle Power Activism?
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Praveen Donthi, Pauline Bax and Falko Ernst to talk about the recent elections in India, South Africa and Mexico. Richard first talks to Praveen about the setbacks for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP in India, what explains Indian voters’ discontent with the party, as well as India’s foreign policy, particularly its competition with China, and the role that played in the election. Pauline then joins Richard to discuss the ruling African National Congress’s poor performance in South Africa’s election, where the party has lost its 30-year parliamentary majority. They also look at South Africa’s hedging on the global stage and its motives in bringing a recent genocide case against Israel in the International Criminal Court. Richard and Falko then look at the elections in Mexico, where Claudia Sheinbaum from the ruling MORENA party is set to become the country’s first woman president after winning a landslide in an election marred by violence. They talk about how Sheinbaum’s security and foreign policies might differ from those of her mentor, incumbent President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out Praveen’s Foreign Affairs piece India’s Perilous Border Standoff With China, Pauline’s Q&A Rising Discontent Pushes South Africa Toward a Tight Poll and Falko’s Q&A As Mexico Votes, What Next for Crime and U.S. Ties?.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga to talk about Kenyan President William Ruto’s recent visit to the U.S., Nairobi’s involvement in Somalia, DR Congo and Haiti and Washington’s evolving role in Africa. They discuss the motives for and implications of President Ruto’s trip to the U.S., how Washington and Nairobi sought to benefit, and their closer ties. They look at the lessons from Kenya’s troop deployments to Somalia and DR Congo as Kenyan paramilitaries prepare to deploy to Haiti. They also assess U.S. policy in Africa more broadly, amid the continent’s shifting political sands and increasing Chinese, Russian and Turkish influence. They also reflect on Ruto’s foreign policy and pivot West, how he and other African leaders view the prospect of a second Trump presidency and, at a time when the International Criminal Court is in the spotlight, the court’s legacy in Kenya.
Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Q&A What’s at Stake in Kenyan President William Ruto’s State Visit to the U.S.? and the episode from our podcast The Horn: Kenya and the Chaos in Haiti.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein and Stephen Pomper to talk about the death of Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash and the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor’s request for arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders. Richard first speaks to Ali to discuss Raisi’s legacy and how his sudden demise might affect Iranian politics, particularly Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s succession, and its foreign relations. Richard then talks with Mairav and Steve about the announcement by ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan that he was requesting arrest warrants for top Hamas leaders as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. They unpack the reaction to the announcement in Israel and the U.S. and its possible impact on the war in Gaza.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Q&A Iran: Death of a President and All Eyes on The Hague: The ICC Prosecutor’s Move against Hamas and Israeli Leaders.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s China and Philippines experts Amanda Hsiao and Georgi Engelbrecht to talk about friction between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. They discuss recent incidents involving Chinese coast guard vessels ramming and firing water cannons at Philippine supply boats near the contested Second Thomas Shoal and the risk of further escalation. They unpack the competing claims in the South China Sea and the strategic value of the maritime features for China and the Philippines. They talk about Manila’s policy towards China and its deepening defence ties to the U.S. under current President Ferdinand Marcos. They also discuss U.S. involvement in the South China Sea and Asia more broadly, China’s reaction to Washington reinforcing its Asian alliances and how to manage risks of incidents between the Chinese and U.S. militaries in the region.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our South China Sea page.
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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Alan Boswell, Shewit Woldemichael, Rami Dajani and Rob Blecher about the latest from Sudan’s western Darfur region and from Gaza. Richard first talks to Alan and Shewit about the worsening violence in North Darfur. As the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces encircle the city of al-Fashar, the last Darfuri capital held by the Sudanese army, and both sides build up forces, they talk about the implications of an all-out battle for the city. They also discuss the legacy of the 2020 Juba peace agreement and why some Darfuri former rebels have now chosen to fight alongside the Sudanese army against the RSF. Richard then talks to Rami and Rob about Israel’s incursion this past week into Gaza’s southernmost city, Rafah. They discuss prospects for talks over a ceasefire-hostage release deal in Cairo, the views of both Hamas and the Israeli government on what such a deal should entail and Israeli politics around the Rafah offensive. They also talk about the difficulties of aid delivery and famine risks in both Sudan and Gaza.
For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our statement Sudan: A Year of War and our report Stopping Famine in Gaza.
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