Folgen
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Why are senior researchers and former officials urging the Fed to create a hedge fund bailout? At first, this seems to be about the Treasury market and concerns tied to March 2020. It doesn't take too long, however, to see what's really going on here.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Brookings Treasury market dysfunction and the role of the central bank
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/treasury-market-dysfunction-and-the-role-of-the-central-bank/Bloomberg Fed Urged to Explore Hedge Fund Bailout Tool for Basis Trade
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-27/fed-urged-to-mull-a-hedge-fund-bailout-facility-for-basis-tradesOFR Hedge Funds and the Treasury Cash-Futures Disconnect
https://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/files/OFRwp-21-01-hedge-funds-and-the-treasury-cash-futures-disconnect.pdfFOMC Meeting Minutes March 15, 2020
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20200315.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Historic bond buying by European banks kept up again in February. The two-month binge is only surpassed by April and May 2020. At the same time, no lending to speak of, banks being totally defensive despite rate cuts. The implications are enormous given the background for 2025.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
You can watch the replay of our last webinar going over the various scenarios for the global economy:
https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1Eurodollar University's one-time webinar offer for its subscriptions and memberships:
https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offerECB The euro area bank lending survey - Fourth quarter of 2024
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_surveys/bank_lending_survey/html/ecb.blssurvey2024q4~e1ddae0f19.en.htmlECB Past Macroeconomic Projections
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/devel/ecana/html/table.en.htmlECB Using corporate earnings calls to forecast euro area labour demand
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/focus/2025/html/ecb.ebbox202502_04~3283f1bc62.en.htmlBloomberg ECB’s Escriva Says Downside Risks Are Outweighing Upside Risks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-24/ecb-s-escriva-says-downside-risks-are-outweighing-upside-risksBloomberg ECB Rate Cuts Are Neither Finished Nor Automatic, Villeroy Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-25/ecb-rate-cuts-are-neither-finished-nor-automatic-villeroy-saysBloomberg Stournaras Says Everything Points to April ECB Cut: Econostream
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-21/stournaras-says-everything-points-to-april-ecb-cut-econostreamBloomberg Lagarde Says Uncertainty Means ECB Can’t Commit on Rates
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-20/lagarde-says-rising-uncertainty-means-ecb-can-t-commit-on-rateshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Fehlende Folgen?
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You can watch the replay of the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1
Eurodollar University's one-time webinar offer for its subscriptions and memberships:
https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offerWhy on earth would anyone say we need a serious financial and economic crisis? Simple: it might be the only way to avoid a lot worse. We've had two so far in the last almost twenty years that got us nowhere; worse than nowhere. If nothing else, maybe third time's a charm.
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Ben Bernanke's pathetic response to some real Congressional questioning in July 2012:
https://www.c-span.org/program/house-committee/us-economic-outlook-and-monetary-policy/282124https://www.eurodollar.university
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You can watch the replay of the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1
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https://www.eurodollar.university/webinar-offerConsumer confidence collapsed in March, at the same time data on services industries showed much the same. This dramatic loss of momentum is coming up seemingly everywhere, to the point it has Wall Street taking the R-word more seriously than at any time since 2020. Not for nothing, that's what some of these datapoints are looking like.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Conference Board Consmer Confidence March 2025
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidencePhilly Fed March 2025 Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/nbos-2025-03New York Fed Business Leaders Survey https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/business_leaders/bls_overview.html
Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC)
https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfsec/current-dataRichmond Fed Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity
https://www.richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/surveys/service_sectorCNBC DoubleLine’s Gundlach sees more risk coming along with greater chance of recession
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/20/doublelines-gundlach-sees-more-risk-coming-and-greater-chance-of-recession-.html?qsearchterm=gundlachCNBC The probability of a recession is approaching 50%, Deutsche markets survey finds
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/24/the-probability-of-a-recession-is-approaching-50percent-deutsche-markets-survey-finds.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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You can watch the replay of the webinar here https://event.webinarjam.com/go/replay/27/n0rnxu71sp7b8nb1
FedEx warned that the US economy is now the biggest constraint on the world, experiencing what the shipper currently estimates is a very serious round of "uncertainty." However, incoming data - not to mention the dollar - shows how the situation is becoming more - not less - certain, with a whole host of updates today. "Uncertainty" simply means "we don't like how this looks."
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CNBC FedEx cuts full-year results forecast on ‘uncertainty’ in economy, bad weather
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/20/fedex-cuts-full-year-results-forecast-on-uncertainty-in-economy-bad-weather.htmlBloomberg Lightspeed Cuts Revenue Outlook on Weakening Consumer Confidence
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-24/lightspeed-tsx-lspd-cuts-revenue-guidance-as-consumer-spending-slowsSPG US PMIs
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/a30301f1804041a083e1a0671ee3df46SPG-HCOB EZ PMIs
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b4bd322643a349e99e8d6f8c290051e0Jibun Japan PMIs
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/7a339d18dce843d68203c0455cb84caahttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Michael Saylor's Strategy sold $700 million in preferred stock Friday, but with an eye-opening 10% dividend attached to be paid in cash. Not stock. Not coins. It was the second straight preferred sale in as many months, though the first one went off at only 8%. Security sales. Trying to get govts and Big Tech to buy Bitcoin. What is going on in the world of BTC? There's a huge STORY here, one that's bigger than Saylor.
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MSTF Pfd Stock Mar 2025
https://www.strategy.com/press/strategy-announces-pricing-of-strf-perpetual-preferred-stock_03-21-2025MSTR Pfd Stock Jan 2025
https://www.strategy.com/press/microstrategy-announces-pricing-of-strike-preferred-stock-offering-strk_01-31-2025MSTR Convertible Notes Nov 2024
https://www.strategy.com/press/microstrategy-completes-3-billion-offering-of-convertible-senior-notes-due-2029-at-0-coupon-and-55-conversion-premium_11-21-2024Bitcoin is perfect money
https://x.com/Cointelegraph/status/1902757116747612169SEC Filings 10-Q Strategy (MSTR)
https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/0001050446/000095017025021814/mstr-20241231.htm#item_8_financial_statements_supplementarMichael Saylor A Digital Assets Strategy to Dominate the 21st Century Global Economy
https://www.michael.com/a-digital-assets-strategyReason El Salvador Walks Back Its Bitcoin Law
https://reason.com/2025/02/03/el-salvador-walks-back-its-bitcoin-law/elsalvador.com
https://www.elsalvador.com/noticias/negocios/bitcoin-el-salvador-criptomonedas-iudop-/1194324/2025/
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Canary in the coalmine. Not Mag Seven, Russell. The macroeconomic warnings are coming in from all direction. Small caps. AI bubble. Macro data. Even the Federal Reserve isn't so certain these days. With Nike and FedEx the latest to offer their $0.02, it's a bit more than mere "uncertainty."
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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Following the Fed, the Swiss, Swedes and BoE. Plus a shocking drop in Australian employment that's going to be a factor for RBA, too. Whatever central bankers say today, it's what they're already doing which matters. The upshot is that those currently not engaged in the global race to the bottom (interest rates) are increasingly likely to re-enter it. Mr. Powell, too.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
SNB statement
https://www.snb.ch/public/publication/en/www-snb-ch/publications/communication/press-releases-restricted/pre_20250320/0_en/pre_20250320.en.pdfCNBC International Interview w/SNB's Martin Schlegel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGghKflsrngBloomberg Swiss Watch Exports Resume Drop on Weak China, US Demand
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-20/swiss-watch-exports-drop-in-february-on-weak-demand-in-china-usMorningstar Bank of England votes 8-1 to keep interest rates on hold at 4.50%
https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1742473139383901300/bank-of-england-votes-8-1-to-keep-interest-rates-on-hold-at-450.aspxBloomberg Sweden’s Riksbank Holds Rate Steady and Says Easing Is Over
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-20/sweden-s-riksbank-holds-rate-steady-and-signals-easing-is-overRiksbank May 2024 statement
https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/monetary-policy/monetary-policy-report/2024/monetary-policy-decision-may-2024/FOMC SEP (and dots)
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20250319.pdfhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The only question is how long the Fed can hold out, not if. With other central banks racing toward the bottom already, the fact those around the FOMC are also speaking with more forceful concerns - even downgrading - their expectations has the Fed effectively trapped, only a step maybe two away from re-entering that same race.
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Bloomberg US Growth Downgrades Appear on Wall Street Amid Policy Turmoil
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-03-10/us-recession-growth-downgrades-appear-on-wall-street-amid-policy-turmoilAtlanta Fed GDPNow
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowAtlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 adjustments
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/gdp-forecasters-some-gold-doesnt-glitter-atlantafed-fxb2e/?trackingId=IKtl2qJkTya%2FgvCxax%2FXEQ%3D%3DBloomberg Fed Needs to Raise Threat of ‘Bad News’ Rate Cuts, El-Erian Says
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-19/el-erian-says-fed-needs-to-raise-threat-of-bad-news-rate-cutshttps://www.eurodollar.university
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After credit spreads had narrowed to near historic lows last month, they've made a major move off them. In fact, the rise in spreads has already equaled last summer. But this year's credit selloff has begun to spread to other segments of the marketplace, including sharp price changes in risky assets like leveraged loans and even private equity. And there is a small hint of yen.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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The big drop in retail sales in January turns out to have been even bigger - much more. And then February consumer spending failed to rebound from it, coming in way below expectations, too. Add retail sales to the growing list on the side of "recession scare." Plus, the bad start to 2025 confirms a whole lot more on that side.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Bloomberg Disappointing Retail Sales Add to Concerns About US Outlook
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-17/us-retail-sales-rise-by-less-than-forecast-after-january-dropNFR CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor Shows February Sales Were Down Monthly Amid Tariff Concerns
https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/cnbc-nrf-retail-monitor-shows-february-sales-were-down-monthly-amid-tariff-concernsBloomberg The US Economic Outlook Is Becoming More Uncertain
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-17/the-us-economic-outlook-is-becoming-more-uncertainBloomberg Gen Z’s Job Recession Needs Urgent Attention
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-03-17/gen-z-job-recession-needs-urgent-attentionhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The return of zero interest rates. Not in some distant future, right now. A major central bank will be debating the potential return of ZIRP this week. And it is far from alone; policy rates aren't just falling all over the world, they're already a lot closer to the historical lows everyone said we'd never see again.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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Foreign companies are fleeing China in droves as the government there is now smack in the middle of an epic borrowing spree. Those two things are related, both stemming from the same major deficiency: banks. Not central banks; actual banks. And China's institutions continue to explore new depths.
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Bloomberg Chinese Stocks Surge as Beijing Plans Briefing on Consumption
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-14/consumer-stocks-drive-china-benchmark-to-highest-level-this-yearBloomberg China Has Record Foreign Investment Outflow as $168 Billion Exit
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-14/china-has-record-foreign-investment-outflow-as-168-billion-exithttps://www.eurodollar.university
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The global "race to the bottom" for interest rates is already well underway, more than most people might think. They've been led to believe it's just a few rate cuts here or there, when the reality is very different. The Bank of Canada is a perfect example, a central bank that has already lowered its rates by a ton. Markets and fundamentals all say there's more coming; the rate race is far from over.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
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Delta airlines in January said business was booming and that the company had confidence there was no end in sight Yesterday, the CEO called the first quarter a "parade of horribles" as economic "uncertainty" spoiled everything. Delta was not alone and not just in terms of airlines. There isn't economic uncertainty, the opposite is taking hold including what was in the February CPI. Not only did it confirm the latest from the carriers, there was a whole lot more in it beside.
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Dallas Morning News Walmart CEO warns food prices are causing ‘frustration and pain’
https://www.dallasnews.com/business/retail/2025/03/03/walmart-ceo-warns-food-prices-are-causing-frustration-and-pain/Delta Airlines 8-k
https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000027904/11d5a8ff-be02-448c-84f4-463a77b3365f.pdfBloomberg Delta Air Surges After Bet on More Premium Seats Pays Off
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/delta-tops-profit-estimates-on-overseas-business-travel-reboundIBD Delta, American Dive On Slashed Outlooks; But Two Airlines Rally
https://www.investors.com/news/delta-air-lines-cuts-q1-2025-guidance-demand-delta-stock-dal/https://www.eurodollar.university
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While the world is lost in the "recession scare", China comes along and adds its considerable deflationary weight to it by reporting more outright price deflation. Both consumer and producer. Together with a sharp drop in imports, this global loss of macro momentum is certainly not lost on China. That can only mean one thing: more government debt.
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CNN China’s deflation problems get worse
https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/10/economy/china-cpi-deflation-problems-intl-hnk/index.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Stocks plunged, bond yields dropped, the R-word is now the common phrase in the media...Jay Powell says everything is just fine and dandy. Even the President is now cautioning the economy might be going through a "transition" and the markets more and more can't get away from it.
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Bloomberg Bond Market’s Trump Trade Is Looking Like a Recession Play
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-09/the-bond-market-s-trump-trade-is-looking-like-a-recession-tradeBloomberg Treasuries Gain as Trump Transition Talk Fuels Recession Angst
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-10/us-credit-risk-rises-as-tariffs-job-cuts-stoke-recession-fearsJay Powell in Chicago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e6pZzfv8AQENBC Dow falls nearly 900 points and Nasdaq dives 4% as stock selloff gathers steam
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/markets/stocks-tank-trump-declines-dismiss-recession-risk-rcna195653https://www.eurodollar.university
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Hot on the heels of the big drop in employment, global trade soared at the absolute wrong time and for all the wrong reasons. Both point to the same huge loss of economic momentum, now seen coming from places all over the world. China, Canada...even the USA.
Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre
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http://www.monetary-metals.com/Snider/Macy's is yet another with a warning on the economy just in time for the payroll numbers on February. They were a disaster if hardly anyone saw the true scale of it. Macy's might have a sense, as do other retailers. The data shows there really is big time trouble brewing in the jobs market.
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WSJ Macy’s Expects Sales to Drop Again This Year
https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/macys-q4-earnings-results-m-stock-d3da1b6aCNBC U.S. payroll growth totals 151,000 in February, less than expected
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/jobs-report-february-2025.htmlhttps://www.eurodollar.university
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Another bazooka, this time from Germany, of all places. The mere thought of it has been enough to send the German bond market into a tailspin and sending yields to nearly their highest in fourteen years while also pulling other parts of the marketplace into it, too. Does the selloff signal inflation, success, or something else entirely? What are the implications for everyone else?
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Politico Germany moves to overhaul debt rules to unleash major defense spending
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-unveils-e500-billion-defense-plan-as-security-threats-mount/Roberto Perotti What Do We Know about the Effects of Fiscal Policy?
https://www.siepweb.it/siep/wp/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/1397925830013.pdfWilson, Daniel J.. 2012. "Fiscal Spending Jobs Multipliers: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 4 (3): 251–82.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/pol.4.3.251https://www.eurodollar.university
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