Folgen
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This is my 7th annual Summer political reading list. Most of the books on this year’s list have been published within the past 12-18 months. All cover broadly political topics, or are (imho) of interest to those with an interest in politics, be it Irish, European, American or global. The choices are mine. I have read some, not all, but all are of interest to me.
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In this episode I look at how pleased Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are pleased by each securing 23% of the votes of those who showed up… but point out that this is not necessarily a sign of greater things to come. That said, Fianna Fáil should celebrate its cohort of new Cllrs. See column on which this podcast is based.
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Fehlende Folgen?
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I look my elections checklist and see how the results stack up against it. I see the predictions I got right (a few) and the ones I got wrong... and why. I also comment on the current petulant row over newspaper polling.
There will be another podcast soon, looking at the Fianna Fáil Local and European results in more detail.
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In this (short) episode I offer my checklist of what to watch out for as the ballot boxes are opened this week-end:
1. Watch the Limerick Mayoral Result
2. Compare party results with GE2020, not LE2019
3. The SF vote total is important, but don't allow FF or FG to use that to deflect from their results
4. See who emerges as the biggest party or faction in local govt - how far will FF slide?
5. Don't see this an inflection point... but it may give hints as to how close we are to one?
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There are no election predictions in this podcast as many voters have yet to decide - instead I focus on what to watch out for as we enter the last week of campaigning. I look at how party leaders will try to manage expectations, especially around seat losses and failed gains... but above all I stress that this is NOT a mid term election - the next general election is 9 months away, at most, and could be called within 4 or 5 months.
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In this episode I return to a topic I have discussed many times - Irish Defence. Though there are some signs that things may be about to improve, the pace is no where near fast enough as the Minister responsible is more pre-occupied with positioning and messaging, than on tackling the real problems. There is also an article to accompany this podcast.
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In this episode I analyze and examine the recent Árd Fheis speeches of Tánaiste Micheál Martin TD and [now] Taoiseach Simon Harris TD... and am not overly impressed by either, as pieces of political communications.
There is a text version to accompany this podcast
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In this episode I ask why does the nation's business have to go on hold for another 12 days while Fine Gael struggles with who/what it stand for? I also comment briefly on the circumstances of the resignation of Sir Jeffrey Donaldson as DUP leader. Read the column on which this podcast is largely based.
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Leo Varadkar's resignation as Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader has thrown Irish politics into turmoil... things will not just continue as they were... and the other government coalition parties need to grasp this reality... fast. This podcast is based on this recent column
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Having critiqued the Tánaiste's party leader speech last week, I now turn my sights on the Sinn Féin leaders speech.
As a piece of writing, a piece of political communications, Mary Lou McDonald's speech was far better than those of the Taoiseach or Tánaiste... but style is one thing, substance is another. While the core message was change... how that change would be achieved was left undefined.
There is a blogpost to accompany this episode, you can read it HERE
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In this episode I critique An Tánaiste Micheál Martin's 2023 Árd Fheis speech as a speech, a performance, and as a piece of political communication and it scores a "must do better" on all three criteria. You can read the original column on which this podcast is based: here
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This episode is about the various "tells" from government parties which point to the binary narrative that Leo Varadkar plans to apply to the next election. There is a blogpost to accompany this podcast, it will be available later today.
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A little later than planned... here is my Summer 2023 political reading list (plus a short supplemental list). The 8 books on my core list look at Irish, EU and global politics. The two lists (core and alternatives) contain several biographies as well as polemics on key issues. You can read the accompanying blogpost at: https://derekmooney.ie/2023/08/12/my-summer-2023-political-reading-list/
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In this episode I consider Sinn Féin's performance in the opinion polls over the past year and conclude that while it will be the biggest single party in the next Dáil, I believe the most likely outcome of that election will be another election. This podcast is based on this recent column: https://derekmooney.ie/2023/07/17/is-sinn-fein-flatlining-from-its-known-knowns/.
I also pay a small personnel tribute to two good friends I've recently lost: Peter Boylan and Ben Briscoe.
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This impromptu (i.e. unscripted) podcast is my response to the controversy prompted by today's Sunday Business Post interview by President Michael D Higgins. This is not intended as a "hot take" or an effort to stoke the flames. I genuinely believe both the President and the Tánaiste are in the wrong - and that the focus of both should be on implementing the Commission on the Defence Forces recommendations - the only debate we should be having today is on why we must wait until 2028 for full implementation?
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In this episode I take the latest Irish Times/ Ipsos opinion poll as my starting point. I look at the numbers and then discuss the likelihood that the next Dáil will have 18 extra TDs... and wonder how many will be FF or FG-ers... based on the poll and the behaviour of Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach, I doubt that many will. There will be a written article (with URL links etc) to accompany this podcast
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Welcome to my first podcast in several weeks, in this episode I consider the penchant of both main parties in government to pursue policies that make it difficult for their supporters to stick with them... This podcast is based on my recent column:
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While it may be fleeting, the SocDems poll bounce is a reminder that Fianna Fáil’s persistently poor poll ratings since 2019 have not happened despite Micheal Martin, they are a direct consequence of decisions he made as leader. This episode is also available as a blog post: http://derekmooney.ie/2023/03/06/because-leadership-matters-socdems-poll-bounce-is-about-more-than-just-a-new-leader/
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In my first podcast of 2023 (apologies for the delay) I look back at the first few weeks of the Donohoe #Postergate saga and explore how Fine Gael has taken the old political dictum: when you are explaining, you are losing, and turned it on its head. Though they may feel it is working in the short-term… I believe that in the longer term, it will not. This episode is also available as a blog post: http://derekmooney.ie/2023/01/26/fine-gael-reckons-when-they-are-explaining-you-are-snoozing/
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In this podcast episode I discuss the principal factors a party leader should consider when contemplating a mid-term reshuffle. I manage - almost - to refrain from engaging in speculation about who may be in or out next Saturday… or next week when the junior ministries are announced. This episode is also available as a blog post: http://derekmooney.ie/2022/12/15/the-perils-of-the-mid-term-reshuffle/
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