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Technology stocks were weak, with Nvidia shares down 7% following the imposition of export restrictions to China and other countries. In a speech in Chicago, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell discussed the potential dilemma of balancing inflation control with economic growth and indicated a cautious monetary approach. The European Central Bank is expected to cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points today. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, talks about all things commodities, from the fading US dominance in energy markets to gold reaching new all-time highs. Nicolas Jordan, CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis, talks about the investment implications of the increased likelihood of a US recession.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
06:03 Commodities update by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)
11:17 Update from the CIO Office by Nicolas Jordan (CIO Strategy & Investment Analysis)
15:39,5 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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The ongoing tariff saga remains the dominant theme, with investors waiting to see if tensions will ease or escalate. This uncertainty is taking a toll on consumer sentiment and investor expectations. Following recent volatility, markets were relatively calm yesterday, with European bourses ending the day in positive territory, while US stocks closed marginally in the red. However, in after-hours trading, Nvidia’s shares plummeted by over 6% after the company faced new restrictions on its exports to China. Both the US dollar and US Treasury yields stabilised somewhat. In overnight trading in Asia, most markets fell, despite China releasing robust economic data. One notable exception was gold, which continued its upward trajectory. To provide further insights into the equity markets, particularly banking stocks, we are joined today by Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy.
00:00 Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
00:24 Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Investment Writing
07:39 Equity market update: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy
11:52 Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Investment Writing
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Fehlende Folgen?
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Markets are showing signs of stabilisation as the US administration appears to be reconsidering its tariff policy. This has boosted auto stocks in particular, driven by reports that President Trump may modify the tariff package for auto-related imports from Mexico and Canada. Additionally, US Treasury yields have decreased following their sharpest increase in twenty years last week. Joining us to discuss the latest on digital assets is Manuel Villegas from Next Generation Research.
00:00 Introduction: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
01:05 Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Investment Writing
07:29 Digital assets: Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research
12:52 Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Investment Writing
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Global financial markets experienced a tumultuous week, with safe-haven assets surging, and the US dollar and Treasury bonds posting sharp declines, raising concerns about the future of US economic dominance and global trade stability. As the escalating trade war with China continues to unfold, investors are bracing for another volatile week, in which the European Central Bank meeting takes place and the corporate earnings season gets underway. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, also joins the show and shares his outlook for markets from a technical perspective.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:31 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
06:45 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
09:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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European markets played catch-up with Wednesday’s US rally yesterday, with nearly all sectors posting significant gains. However, when US markets opened, risk appetite appeared to evaporate on Wall Street, as stocks fell despite subdued inflation data. There was some brief respite for Treasuries but they then resumed their sell-off from earlier in the week, sparking concerns among many about the health of the financial system. Asian markets delivered mixed performance overnight, but gold reached yet another record high. In this episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Solutions in Geneva, who shares his expertise on the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals, offering valuable insights into these markets.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:28 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
05:49 FX and metals by Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
10:25 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Following President Trump’s ‘pause’ announcement yesterday, US And Asian equity indices experienced a relief rally of historic proportions. The punitive tariffs imposed on dozens of countries have now been swapped for a universal 10% rate, but only for 90 days. It remains to be seen whether this rally can be sustained or if it is merely a dead-cat bounce: US futures are pointing to a lower open this afternoon. Gold and oil have not been immune to some puzzling price moves in the past few weeks too, so it was great to have Carsten Menke and Norbert Rücker on the podcast to provide their insights into what might be behind these.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:31 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
05:54 Oil: Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)
09:01 Gold: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
12:26 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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The global trade war intensifies as the Trump Tariffs come into effect. Equities continue to decline for the fourth consecutive day, threatening to push the S&P 500 into bear market territory, as investors seek safe havens. Meanwhile, Treasuries, once considered the world's ultimate safe haven, remain under pressure as investors appear to be losing confidence in the US. To gain more insight into the bond market's reaction, we spoke with Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who discusses the implications for investors' positioning in more detail.
00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)
05:49 Bond market latest: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)
10:44 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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Global markets experienced significant volatility yesterday due to ongoing trade tensions sparked by President Donald Trump - the VIX index surged to 60 at one point. The S&P 500 closed just 0.2% lower despite threats of additional tariffs. Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley stated that a decline in stocks alone won't prompt the Fed to intervene, but an impairment to the flow of credit to businesses would. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rebounded slightly today after a historic 13.2% collapse on Monday, while Japan's Nikkei 225 rallied 6% on positive trade news, with the US and Japan potentially negotiating a trade deal. European equity futures are up over 2% in response to the news. Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research, notes that the upcoming earnings season will be all about companies’ comments on the trade war.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:31 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
05:49 Q1 earnings season preview: Philipp Lienhardt (Head of Equity Research)
08:29 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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As the emerging trade war takes its toll, causing global stock markets to sell off from Japan to Mexico, investor sentiment continues to deteriorate rapidly. After US stocks fell steeply on Friday, Asian equities have plummeted today, with tech and banking stocks leading the decline in response to the retaliatory tariffs announced by China. Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, shares his outlook for markets from a technical perspective and Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong, shares his reaction to the escalating tariff war with a focus on China.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:44 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
06:17 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
09:04 Reaction to tariff announcements in Asia: Richard Tang (Head of Research Hong Kong)
19:04 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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The fallout from Donald Trump’s tariff war spread across global markets on Thursday, knocking down stocks and sparking a flight to fixed-income havens. US equities and the dollar saw some of the worst selling on speculation the president’s trade offensive will cripple the American economy. In today’s special episode, Christian Gattiker, Head of Research, shares his insights on the latest developments and how investors should navigate this uncertain environment. And Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, talks about why he sees more room for US dollar weakness and why he thinks gold will continue to perform well.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:41 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)
06:10 Reaction to Trump tariff announcements: Christian Gattiker (Head of Research)
11:10 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
15:55 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Last night President Trump delivered a 99 minute speech in which he announced a baseline 10% tariff across the board. For many of the 180 countries on that board, the actual number is much higher: China now faces a rate of 54% and it has vowed to take ‘resolute counter-measures’ to safeguard its own rights and interests. Markets reacted badly to the news with only gold and US Treasury prices moving higher. Our Chief Economist, David Kohl, joins the podcast to share his thoughts on the impact on economic growth and why the biggest inflationary impact might actually be felt in the US. And Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, brings a timely update on AI.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:44 Markets wrap-up by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
06:33 Liberation Day: David Kohl (Chief Economist)
11:20 AI update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
15:08 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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In this episode, we dive into the latest market developments as European government bonds and equities surge on contained eurozone inflation. Meanwhile, US stocks experience a volatile session ahead of the unveiling of the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff plans. Joining us is Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who shares his insights on why he thinks it's not the right time to increase risk exposure in bond markets.
00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:24 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
05:49 Bond market latest: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)
09:39 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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European markets dropped yesterday but US stocks rebounded and the S&P 500 index closed up 0.6%, although this wasn’t enough to stop the benchmark index from posting its worst month in two years. Gold hit a fresh all-time high, up 1.2%, as investors sought safety amid concerns over the Trump administration's imminent tariffs and their potential impact on inflation and growth. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics & Next Generation Research, who shares his outlook on energy markets.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:24 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
06:22 Energy markets by Norbert Rücker (Head of Economics & Next Generation Research)
10:15,5 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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US inflation concerns intensified, with the core PCE rising 2.8% year-on-year, fuelling fears of stagflation. Tariffs remain a significant concern, with the US poised to unveil new measures on Wednesday. The EU is bracing itself for a potential 20% tariff, and Goldman Sachs has increased the likelihood of a US recession from 20% to 35%. Asian markets are feeling the strain of tariff uncertainty, with stocks declining, the Japanese yen strengthening, and gold at an all-time high. Also in focus this week: Friday's US jobs report, which may signal a cooling labour market. Meanwhile, Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, discusses the S&P 500, gold, and the US dollar amidst a risk-off backdrop in the markets.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
08:29 Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
11:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Wednesday’s announcement of new tariffs on all non-US-made cars sent shockwaves through the markets, with stock markets worldwide feeling the ripple effects. Carmakers were among the hardest hit, while some investors sought safer havens in more stable sectors, such as consumer packaged goods, where share prices rose. In the Asia-Pacific region, markets were largely down, despite news that Chinese President Xi Jinping had met with global CEOs in Beijing and speculation that Trump may cut tariffs on Chinese goods to facilitate a TikTok deal. Against this backdrop, gold reached yet another record high overnight. In this episode, we are joined by Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions in Geneva, who shares his insights on the latest developments in foreign exchange and metals, and offers some interesting trade ideas.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:24 Markets wrap-up by Lucija Caculovic (Investment Writing)
07:05 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
11:13 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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A three-day period of relative calm on Wall Street came to an end as major tech and automobile companies led a decline in global equity markets yesterday. Concerns about the economic impact of ever more tariff announcements, weak consumer sentiment and rising inflation risks are dampening investor risk appetite. Nvidia and Tesla slumped nearly 6%, and the automobile sector was among yesterday’s laggards after Trump announced 25% tariffs on the sector. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, talks about the impact of tariffs on copper and why he expects the latest rally will not last.
00:00 Introduction by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
00:28 Markets wrap-up Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)
05:29 Copper: Carsten Menke (Head of Next Generation Research)
08:54 Closing remarks by Helen Freer (Investment Writing)
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Consumer sentiment in the US continues to decline, with some indices flashing warning signs of a potential recession. Despite the weakness in sentiment, hard economic data remains resilient - for now. Meanwhile, one of the main beneficiaries of the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, is industrial metal copper, whose price has reached an all-time-high in New York. Join us as we discuss the latest developments with Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, who predicts further volatility on the horizon, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy, who argues that investors should capitalise on the current US equity bounce to diversify into international markets.
00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:27 Markets wrap-up by Roman Canziani (Head of Investment Writing)
06:09 Bond market update: Dario Messi (Head of Fixed Income Research)
11:24 Equity strategy update: Mathieu Racheter (Head of Equity Strategy)
16:43 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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US equity markets jumped yesterday on hopes that President Trump may hold back from implementing some of his wide-ranging tariff plans, hinting at a narrower scope of reciprocal levies set to be announced on 2 April. In today’s Asia session, though, it’s a different story, with tech stocks on the back foot, weighing on markets. Also on today’s podcast, we are joined by Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research, who shares his outlook on digital assets following the substantial outflows seen in recent weeks.
00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:27 Markets wrap-up by Jonti Warris (Investment Writing)
05:51 Digital assets update: Manuel Villegas (Next Generation Research)
09:40 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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Central banks adopted a cautious tone on monetary policy, driving gold to a new high last week. The EUR suffered a 'sell the news' reaction following the announcement of Germany's spending plans. President Trump's comments on tariff flexibility provided a boost to the S&P 500 late on Friday. Looking ahead, this week promises to be eventful, with over 50 corporate results from China, and Ukraine peace talks. Investors will be closely watching Friday's US PCE inflation data. According to Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, a sustained rebound in US stocks will require broad-based buying and a shift in behaviour from retail investors - refraining from buying every dip in the market.
00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:28 Markets wrap-up by Mike Rauber (Investment Writing)
06:28 Technical Analysis update by Mensur Pocinci (Head of Technical Analysis)
08:23 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
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Equity markets remain fragile as a renewed focus on trade fears derailed a short-lived recovery in risky assets as a busy central bank week draws to a close. Tim Gagie, Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva, talks about the impact of the latest central bank communications on currency markets, and what he expects for gold going forward.
00:00 Introduction by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
00:23 Markets wrap-up by Jan Bopp (Investment Writing)
05:47 FX and metals: Tim Gagie (Head of FX & PM Solutions Geneva)
10:11 Closing remarks by Bernadette Anderko (Investment Writing)
Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
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