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Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss Senator Mitch McConnell’s legacy after he announced his intention to step down from his role as Senate Republican Leader effective November 2024. They also talk about the Michigan presidential primary election results; the impact of district changes after the New York State Assembly and Senate both passed a new New York Congressional map this week that was signed into law by Governor Kathy Hochul; a preview of the California Congressional primary; and the recent history of split-ticket voting in presidential and Senate elections.
Links in this episode:
The Postwar History of Senate/Presidential Ticket-Splitting, Part Two Notes on the State of Politics: Feb. 28, 2024 -
Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss recent political developments and new analyses on the Crystal Ball, including reduced split-ticket voting in Senate elections, updates on 2024 Senate contests, insights from the NY-3 special election results and the significance of New York redistricting for the House of Representatives. They also highlight the decreasing number of competitive House seats and the potential impact on future control of the House.
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Notes on the State of the Senate Big NY-3 Win Brings Democrats Ever Closer in the House -
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In this episode, Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the recent Nevada caucus and primary results and dive into the potential impact of ticket-splitting in down-ballot House of Representatives elections this year. Rich Thau, president of Engagious, also joins Carah, Tyler Busch, Zoe Shook, and Etienne Ouellette to discuss focus groups with voters in key states for the 2024 elections. The 2024 Deciders is a project with Sago and Syracuse University’s Institute for Democracy, Journalism and Citizenship,
In the presidential elections
The Race for the House, Part One The Race for the House, Part Two Engagious - 2024 Deciders -
Award-winning journalist Darren Samuelsohn joins Carah Ong Whaley and Ella Doddridge (UVA ‘26) to help make sense of the various Trump trials and their implications for politics and the upcoming election, what it’s really like covering the former president, and navigating journalism in the modern media landscapes.
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Love, Journalism Darren Samuelsohn Court Listener -
In this episode, Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss what they learned about voter turnout in the New Hampshire primary election and how they are thinking about the upcoming presidential primary elections. They also discuss the recent decision in Louisiana to create a second Black-majority Congressional district, ending a nearly two-year saga over adequate Black representation in the state.
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The Fields Above the Graves: Louisiana 2024 Redistricting Trump Clears the New Hampshire Hurdle -
Polls suggest that the New Hampshire Primary should be more competitive than Donald Trump's large margin in Iowa's low-turnout caucus. Just 4 of New Hampshire’s 10 counties will likely comprise 75% of the primary electorate. Dante Scala, University of New Hampshire, joins Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley to offer a guide to which New England hamlets offer the best clues to the outcome on Tuesday, January 23, 2024. Kyle also discusses among which key demographic groups Donald Trump did better in Iowa’s low-turnout 2024 caucus compared to 2016.
Links in this episode
A Roadmap for the New Hampshire GOP Primary Big Iowa Win Confirms Trump’s Stranglehold on GOP -
It’s a flurry of snow and presidential campaigning in Iowa this week in the leadup to the Hawkeye state’s caucuses on Monday, January 15, 2024. Although former president Donald J. Trump continues to hold the lead in polling averages by 30+ percentage points in Iowa, candidates and campaigns are inundating the public with ads, leaflets and rallies, hoping Iowans will brave the freezing temperatures and weather conditions to caucus for them.
Dr. Karen Kedrowski, Director of the Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State University, joins Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley to discuss campaign strategies, changes to the Democratic caucus, and how all the efforts might impact the outcome and what it means for the 2024 presidential election. They also discuss changing demographics in Iowa and key areas to watch as caucus results roll in.
Links in this episode:
Carrie Chapman Catt Center for Women and Politics at Iowa State University Previewing the Iowa Caucus: A brief history of the Hawkeye State’s caucus, and some areas to watch by J. Miles Coleman and Kyle Kondik (January 11, 2024) -
As we commemorate the third anniversary of the attacks on the U.S. Capitol, we talk with DC Metropolitan Police Officer Daniel Hodges. On January 6, 2021, Ofc. Hodges responded with Civil Defense Unit 42 to the attacks on the U.S. Capitol as Capitol Police units were overrun. Ofc. Hodges fought those who assaulted the Capitol on the west lawn, the west terrace, and in the tunnel leading out to the inaugural platform, sustaining many injuries in the process. While fighting in the tunnel he was crushed by rioters in the west terrace doors of the Capitol and beaten. He returned to full duty within a month and continues to serve as an officer. Not only does he continue to serve, he also has testified in court cases about January 6 and in a case in the Colorado Supreme Court, which recently ruled that Donald Trump is disqualified from the state's 2024 ballot under the Constitution's “insurrectionist ban.” Former President Donald Trump formally asked the US Supreme Court to reverse that decision on January 3.
Along with others who defended democracy on January 6, 2021, Officer Hodges received a Congressional medal, the Presidential Citizens Medal and the Center for Politics’ 2023 Defenders of Democracy award.
Hodges joined the Washington D.C. Metropolitan Police Department in 2014. Hodges has also received multiple awards for his services with MPD, including a Commendation medal for responding to a man brandishing a gun and threatening MPD Officers and talking him into disarming and surrendering. Civil Disturbance Unit 42 is a "rapid response" platoon that is equipped with non-standard defensive gear and is activated for policing a variety of First Amendment assemblies, protests, and riots.
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Officer Daniel Hodges testifies to Congress about the January 6, 2021 attacks on the U.S. Capitol.
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Kyle Kondik shares his new analysis on Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball that compares Trump’s approval in 2019 to Biden’s approval in 2023, the same point in each presidency. He finds that Biden’s lower approval is not driven by a higher level of antipathy from Republicans. Kyle and Carah Ong Whaley also reflect on the state of democracy and the upcoming 2024 elections.
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Notes on the State of Politics: Dec. 13, 2023 -
Former Members of Congress Barbara Comstock (Republican) and L.F. Payne (Democrat), and Alex Theodoridis (UMass) join Carah Ong Whaley and Samuel Kipps (UVA '23) to discuss the findings from a new survey on the perspectives, beliefs, and experiences of former members of Congress, with a specific focus on concerns about violence in 2024 and the differing narratives surrounding the events of January 6th. They also discuss the state of dysfunction and polarization in Congress and efforts to rebuild trust and civility in politics.
Rep. Comstock is a senior adviser for the law and lobbying firm, Baker Donelson, a political commentator, and, most importantly, a resident scholar with us here at the Center for Politics, among many esteemed positions. Rep. Payne is president of Three Ridges Group in Charlottesville, VA, and a member of the University of Virginia’s Board of Visitors. and also joining us is Alex Theodoridis, Associate Professor of Political Science and co-director of the UMass Poll at the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
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U.S. Association of Former Members of Congress and University of Massachusetts Amherst UMass Poll -
Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the December 6, 2023 Republican primary debate, Nikki Haley's moment and the broader dynamics of the race for the Republican presidential nomination, and the challenges faced by the other candidates in their attempts to attract Trump's voters. They also talk about the retirements of several members of Congress and the implications for lawmaking and upcoming elections, as well as the new congressional map in Georgia.
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Notes on the State of Politics: Dec. 7, 2023 The GOP Primary: Lowest-Hanging Fruit Remains Out of Reach for Trump Rivals -
ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl joins Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato to discuss his new book, Tired of Winning: Donald Trump and the End of the Grand Old Party. Karl offers new insights and reporting in his third book on Donald Trump’s presidency and its aftermath with implications if he were to return for a second term.
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In this episode, Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley talk with Patrick Ruffini, a Founding Partner of Echelon Insights and Republican pollster about his new book Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP. The book examines an unfolding political realignment especially along class lines with implications for the 2024 elections and beyond.
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Representative Ted Lieu, named by Time Magazine as one of the 100 most influential people in AI in 2023, joins us to discuss how the chaos in the House of Representatives is preventing progress on addressing the promises and challenges of generative Artificial Intelligence. He also shares his views on how AI might impact the workforce and elections. On the impact of deepfakes in the 2024 elections, Congressman Lieu says, “It’s going to be a problem and the best counter to it is to urge everyone to not trust what they see.”
Rep. Lieu represents California's 36th Congressional District and is serving his fifth term in Congress and currently sits on the House Judiciary, Foreign Affairs, and Science, Space, and Technology Committees. He was also elected by his colleagues to serve as Vice Chair of the Democratic Caucus, making him the highest ranking Asian American to have ever served in House Leadership. He also has the distinction of being the first member of Congress to introduce legislation written by General Artificial Intelligence.
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Bipartisan House members propose AI commission -
On Tuesday, November 7, 2023 voters in several states will go to the polls to cast ballots in state and local elections. Many voters have already cast a ballot early in-person or by mail. Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley discuss the Crystal Ball’s mega preview of some of the key elections we are watching: gubernatorial elections in Kentucky and Mississippi; the state legislative contests in Virginia; an abortion-related ballot issue in Ohio; and a state Supreme Court race in Pennsylvania.
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A 2023 Election Mega-Preview
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Center for Politics Professor of Practice Liz Cheney sat down with Center for Politics Director Larry J. Sabato and other members of our team this week for a discussion about the challenges facing American politics and democracy. She speaks out for the first time about the new Speaker of House Mike Johnson (R-LA-4) and why he is dangerous. Cheney’s forthcoming book, Oath and Honor: A Memoir and a Warning, is now available for pre-order and will be released on December 5, 2023. Cheney, former chair of the House Republican Conference, joined the Center for Politics as Professor of Practice in March.
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In this episode, we dive into a new analysis by Kyle Kondik, Managing Editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, about where third parties run strong and where we should expect the third party vote to be meaningfully higher or lower in the most important states in the Electoral College in 2024. We also discuss the election of Representative Mike Johnson as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives.
Carah Ong Whaley also talks with Gretchen Barton, Principal of Worthy Strategy Group, LLC, about a new study of perceptions of leadership and what it means for women in politics. Natalie Jackson of the National Journal joins us for the conversation. After learning about Gretchen Barton’s new study, we wondered what images would come to mind about political leadership for UVA students and we conducted a little experiment. Let us know if the study or what students say resonate with you. Email us at goodpolitics @ virginia.edu
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Worthy Strategy Group Sabato's Crystal Ball -Third Party Wild Card Why Haven’t We Had a Woman President Women and Political Leadership Ahead of the 2024 Election -
Joel K. Goldstein, a vice presidency scholar at St. Louis University, joins Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley to discuss lessons from history on vice presidential selection. Despite headlines quick to suggest that the Republican primary debates are an audition to Donald Trump’s running mate, history suggests that whoever wins the Republican presidential nomination is unlikely to choose one of their rivals for the nomination as his or her running mate. They also discuss challenges for Vice President Kamala Harris.
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2024 GOP Rivals Teaming Up on the Ticket? Don’t Bet on It -
Matt Hodges, Executive Director of Zinc Labs at the Zinc Collective, joins Carah Ong Whaley and Ella Nelsen (UVA ‘25) to discuss the role of technology in campaigns and elections and what lawmakers should consider in frameworks governing the use of tech tools, including Generative Artificial Intelligence.
Also in this episode, Kyle Kondik discusses his new analysis of how the 2024 election might be historic in that we could have a pair of presidential candidates who sweep their party nominating contests, even in spite of their weaknesses and liabilities.
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Matt Hodges Zinc Collective Quiller Higher Grounds Labs Trump and Biden Seek Historic Combined Sweep -
In this episode, Kyle Kondik and Carah Ong Whaley share takeaways from the second Republican presidential primary debate, held on September 27, 2023 at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California. They also talk about new analysis on the Crystal Ball by Carah and Kylie Holzman (UVA ‘26) about why the United States hasn’t had a woman president.
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Why Haven’t We Had A Woman President? - Mehr anzeigen
