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It’s finally here. We’re on the cusp of the 2024 general election, and the next president of the United States is about to be decided. Either Democrat Kamala Harris will become the nation’s first female president or Republican Donald Trump will become the second president to serve nonconsecutive terms in office. Popular votes do not decide presidential elections, however: Electoral College votes do. But if someone doesn’t win a majority of the Electoral College, what happens next? Regardless of that, where are the least and most competitive states in the Electoral College? All this and more is today’s topic.
Today's random question: Who/what is your favorite musician/band? Leave your answer in the comments below or comment on the video where available. -
Today's episode dives into some of the most important, competitive US House and gubernatorial races and state legislative chambers that could possibly flip majority party control. These US House races not only are critical for determining whether Republicans keep the majority or Democrats gain it, but also for their potential impacts on the presidential election (including ways you may not expect), US Senate elections, gubernatorial elections, and state legislative control.
There is no random question today. That will be saved for the end of this string of episodes. -
Fehlende Folgen?
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There are 9 or so seats up for election in the US Senate in 2024 that are expected to be competitive, including some states that are presidential battlegrounds. Today's episode of PwP covers the races in that chamber are expected to be the tightest, including one contest that has a slight chance of being an upset, and some of the key factors to look at in each.
There is no random question today. That will be saved for the end of this string of episodes. -
What kind of factors and contexts should we look at to determine whether an election is competitive? Such aspects include campaign finances, party support, the impact of simultaneous races, and candidate qualities. Yet it’s not enough to have an advantage in any of these aspects—you must be able to harness those advantages properly. This episode takes a general overview of what makes elections competitive and which 2024 contests for US Senate, US House, governor, and state legislative chamber control are expected to be competitive. Later this week, we will take a deeper dive into what exactly makes those races competitive.
Today does not have a random question. That will be saved for the end of this string of episodes on competitive non-presidential races. -
As important as knowing what the competitive races are is knowing where there is a lack of competition and what election results are likely or basically guaranteed to happen. But expectations aren't just about who is going to win. We also can make reasonable predictions about things like campaign spending, incumbent performance, and voter turnout. Today is part 1 of the preview of Election 2024, focusing on what the safe (or at least safer) predictions are and why they are predictable.
Today's random question: Miracle Whip: Yes or no? -
Political parties in America have been around since the ratification of the US Constitution and have persisted despite increasingly negative opinions Americans have about both the Democratic and Republican Parties. Why are the two major parties so ingrained in the American political system? How did we get the parties we have today? How do independents and third parties factor into politics? All this and more about the durability of the Democratic and Republican Parties are the focus of today's topic.
Today's random question: Are Pop-Tarts good? -
Today's episode of PwP is the first one to feature a special guest! Seth David Radwell joins me to discuss his book "American Schism: How the Two Enlightenments Hold the Secret to Healing Our Nation," available on Amazon in ebook, hardcover, and audiobook. The book makes the case for how there are multiple strains of Enlightenment thinking that have sparked division throughout all of American history, including today's polarization. Included in our discussion is Seth's prescriptions for healing the divide, the importance of civility and compromise, and how we can come to a mutual understanding of others' viewpoints.
Today's random question: Who is one person, dead or alive, that you would want to have an in-depth conversation with? -
The coverage of predictions of election results ramp up the closer we get to elections. Election forecasters, both individual and organizational, have their own formulas for how they rate the likelihood of a Democrat or a Republican of winning a given contest. Today's episode dives into a variety of the factors these forecasters use to make their prediction, including election history, polling, and other elections happening at the same time.
Today's random question: If you could have an exotic animal as a pet that normally is not legally allowed, what would you choose and why? -
Government officials take an oath to uphold and defend the Constitution before they take office, yet conservatives and liberals often have considerably different views on how to interpret the US Constitution. Do we interpret it in the context of when passages were ratified? Does the meaning change as society and times change? Today looks into the origins and development of the debate over how to interpret the US Constitution, the arguments between the two basic schools of thought known as "Originalism" and "Living Constitutionalism," and how both ideologies have shaped historical and contemporary US Supreme Court cases.
Today's random question: Do you subscribe to the Shopping Cart Theory? -
It takes a lot to amend the US Constitution. About 12,000 amendments have been put in front of Congress over 230+ years, but only 33 of them have been passed by Congress and only 27 of those have been fully ratified as part of the Constitution. So, when could the 28th Amendment be ratified and what will it be? Today, we look at the 27 previous amendments, some quick amendment ratification stats, and some potential candidates for a 28th Amendment and evaluations of their likelihood of being ratified in the near future.
Today's random question: What is the superior font for electronic documents? -
Voter turnout is the foundation of the American system of government, and studying the factors influencing turnout is a key component to understanding what makes American voters tick. So, what makes voter turnout fluctuate? How do we even measure it? How has turnout changed over time? All this and more is the focus of today's episode of Politics with Paul.
Today's random question: Do you use the Oxford comma? -
You hear about "red" and "blue" and even "purple" states all the time in elections—red for Republican, blue for Democrat, and purple for a mix of the two. Yet what criteria are needed to actually tell when a state is one of these colors? How did we even get to using red and blue colors for the Republican and Democratic Parties, respectively? Which states are red, which are blue, and which are purple? How have these shades changed over time? All this and more are the subject of today's Politics with Paul podcast episode.
Today's random question: What is the coolest planet in the Solar System (you can't say "Earth")? -
A presidential candidate must win a majority of the Electoral College (270+ electoral votes out of 538) to win the presidency. But what happens if no candidate reaches that threshold? That's where contingent elections come in. Today, I talk about how the Electoral College has changed over time, how contingent elections work, and one way 2024 could become a contingent election (though the possibility is unlikely).
Today's random question: Is a hot dog a sandwich? -
Why do we hold elections at the time of year we do, and why does it matter? Election timing plays a crucial role in the voting process, and depending on the time of year an election is held voter turnout rates, and who turns out to vote, can look vastly different. Today, I dive into how election timing is defined, a brief history of how election timing got to where it is today, the arguments made for and against "off-cycle" election timing, and where we find these off-cycle elections. Today's random question: With NFL season around the corner, which NFL team has the best uniforms?
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Calls for implementing maximum age limits on our government officials have increased as of late. But the debate is often made out to be far simpler than it actually is. In today's episode, I dive into the arguments that supporters and opponents of a maximum age limit make. Then I talk about what other factors must be accounted for if we were to have a maximum age limit, such as what that age would be and consideration of political incentives. Finally, I then go into what potential alternatives might be proposed instead of an age limit.
Today's end-of-episode random question: What Olympic sport, that you don't already play, would you most want to be good at? -
Welcome to the Politics with Paul podcast, home to nonpartisan analysis of politics! In this episode, I talk about what exactly I do, how I came to do it, and why I do it. I also lay out the ground rules on what this podcast entails, including coverage of various policy debates, interviews with guests, and election analysis.
