Folgen
-
We will have a new project at https://dreambuddies.fireside.fm/ if you want to hear what we're up to (forthnightly-ish). There will be European politics but it's not the main focus.
And there's still a discord here (http://leftists.eu) -
This week we wildly speculate on future events as we're going on hiatus while Ciarán figures out parenting
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## Subsequently in Europe
Speculation Time!
Germany
Danish minority are running in the next parliament elections (thanks for the heads up Maximilian) - I predict a very close early election due to government breakdown followed by the Danish Schleswig Party party entering a coalition with the deciding vote.
Brexit?
I think there'll just be a terrible deal which the UK will pretend is very good. They're kicking up a fuss about it now as a distraction because the migrant panic didn't work long enough
Coronavirus
Is no buneo... -
Fehlende Folgen?
-
There are two topics today whoop whoop! We talk about #golfgate in Ireland which gets us annoyed (as Irish people) and we revisit the Serbian elections and where we are with all that Vučić stuff.
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Support us on Patreon! (https://www.patreon.com/previouslyineurope)
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No Election Left Behind
2020 Belarusian presidential election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020Belarusianpresidential_election
EU response
EU officially doesn't recognise the results, but it took a while (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/19/belarus-crisis-eu-leaders-emergency-talks-lukashenko-protests). There's talk of sanctions but nothing specific yet
On the delay from a Politico Newsletter:
ANOTHER STATEMENT: The EU threatened sanctions earlier this week, but today’s videoconference is more about delivering a “quick reaction,” a senior EU diplomat told Jacopo Barigazzi. A decision very likely won’t come until the foreign ministers meet in person August 27-28 in Berlin, the diplomat said, for an informal gathering known as a “Gymnich.” And since EU High Representative Josep Borrell is technically on holiday away from Brussels, no press conference is expected at the end of today’s meeting — just a readout.
Also...
https://neweasterneurope.eu/2020/08/17/belarus-why-this-time-is-not-different/
Strikes
Call for solidarity from worker organisations: https://progressive.international/wire/2020-08-19-an-urgent-call-for-solidarity-with-the-workers-and-people-of-belarus/en
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/08/state-controlled-firms-join-strike-belarus-president-200818113145275.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/17/belarus-opposition-calls-for-general-strike-after-biggest-protests-yet
Including the state TV station - https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-television-broadcasts-empty-studio-as-state-media-joins-general-strike/a-54593079?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
Europe's last dictator...
For a very questionable graph: https://www.rferl.org/a/years-of-lukashenka-and-counting/30769566.html
But yes he's been in office a long time and it would not be reasonable to say he's been winning fair elections for a long time.
The response from the Lukashenka side to the possibility of a real challenger is not surprising - imprisoned candidates, banned rallies, etc (https://neweasterneurope.eu/2020/08/07/ahead-of-the-presidential-elections-in-belarus/)
From Maxim Rust, Polish political science researcher:
"The elections will be held on August 9th. Nobody is sure about how they will unfold or how the authorities will react to the planned mass protests in their aftermath. One thing is certain – regardless of the election results, Belarusian society is not what it was just a few months ago. "
That was pretty spot on
Crackdown
"Opposition leader" forced to leave for safety
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SviatlanaTsikhanouskaya#citenote-41
https://www.rferl.org/a/belarusian-opposition-candidate-forced-to-leave-country/30778578.html
https://news.sky.com/video/end-violence-on-streets-of-belarus-says-opposition-leader-12049164
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53733330
Internet cutoff
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/11/belarus-president-cuts-off-internet-amid-widespread-protests
https://twitter.com/BBCWillVernon/status/1293963021677735937
Beatings and torture of those arrested, general harsh approach to protesters
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/10/belarus-elections-lukashenko-protests-tikhanovskaya-europe/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/13/belarusians-accuse-lukashenko-regime-of-beatings-and-torture
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/08/10/belarus-elections-lukashenko-protests-tikhanovskaya-europe/
https://www.eurotopics.net/en/245568/protests-and-violence-after-belarus-elections
https://euobserver.com/foreign/149144?utmsource=euobs&utmmedium=rss
Journalists being rounded up specifically
https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1293867313775747072
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/danpeleschuk/belarus-detention-centers-abuse-lukashenko-protests
https://www.dw.com/en/dws-belarus-correspondent-released-after-10-day-arrest/a-54584439?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf -
On today's episode, Hugh tries to convince Ciarán that the new EU budget isn't terrible. It goes about as well as expected.
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No Election Left Behind
2020 Polish presidential election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020Polishpresidential_election
https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-presidential-election-anti-semitism/
https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-to-limit-foreign-media-soon-pis-leader-says/
https://www.dw.com/en/poland-election-result-opposition/a-54205004?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
2020 North Macedonian parliamentary election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020NorthMacedonianparliamentaryelection
REPUBLIC OF NORTH MACEDONIA
The North Macedonian parliament on Sunday voted to dissolve and set a snap election for April 12. The vote had previously been scheduled for November so it’s not like they’re shifting things around in a major way, but something like this has been in the cards since ex-Prime Minister Zoran Zaev resigned just after the new year in the wake of the European Union’s decision not to open membership talks with his government. North Macedonia has been run by an interim cabinet since then.
Zaev had staked his premiership on a pro-EU policy, and pushed through an unpopular addition of the word “North” to the country’s name in order to settle a dispute with Greece that was preventing Skopje from applying for EU membership. His political position was therefore badly undercut by the failure to start the accession process last fall. The election will basically serve as a referendum on Zaev’s approach, and he’ll be hoping voters return him to office with a mandate to keep pursuing EU membership. North Macedonia’s NATO accession should be a done deal by then (only Spain has yet to ratify it and that’s because Madrid’s political situation is a mess, not because of anything to do with North Macedonia) and Zaev is hoping the excitement over that development will give him a boost.
https://www.dw.com/en/north-macedonia-holds-first-election-since-changing-its-name/a-54172417?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/15/world/europe/north-macedonia-election-zaev.html
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/07/north-macedonia-votes-general-election-eu-talks-loom-200715073621655.html
https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/can-europe-make-it/elections-north-macedonia-waiting-kingmaker/
https://www.euronews.com/2020/07/15/north-macedonia-votes-covid-19-driving-fears-of-low-turnout-in-first-election-since-name-c -
No election left behind!!! Tonight we talk the Croatian 2020 parliamentary elections and how maybe it should've been postponed
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## Also Happening: GDPR turns two
EU Commission GDPR Formal Review
The Cookies Thing?
Yes! Well.. not entirely the cookies thing, but yes the cookies thing. Most people interact with this by seeing those annoying popups being like "I consent to all cookies, please leave me alone", but what if I told you that was actually a good thing?
The general idea was to do what it says in the name "General Data Protection Regulation", so a regulation what was uniform across the EU and protected data. Cool so to keep data on someone via an EU state basically you now (as of 2018):
have to have consent
you can't keep it indefinitely
if they ask you to remove it you have to
This was actually a big deal considering how there's usually more concessions in EU legalisation for special interests - e.g. due to a major industry in a country or because David Cameron didn't want us to have nice things. But this was a pretty broad update to the 1990s data protection laws that really did seem planned to give some citizen level control over their data.
This was of course in the wake of Edward Snowden, Cambridge Analytica and that time Marc Zuckerberg gave a really crappy testimony to the EU (https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/may/22/five-things-we-learned-from-mark-zuckerbergs-european-parliament-appearance). So there was actually consensus that this was a good idea. It passed the council with only Austria complaining it wasn't strict enough and the parliament almost unanimously (though some who negotiated noted it was only after much convincing in negotiations http://old.guengl.eu/news/article/gue-ngl-news/gdpr-a-milestone-for-data-privacy-in-the-eu)
There were even fines built into it - up to €20m/4% of global turnover (whichever is bigger) if non-compliance continued.
So it worked?
Sort of! You've seen those cookies pop-ups right? See the EU Commission's very neutral infographic "the fabric of a success story" (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/fs201172). Also (https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip201163)
"Between May 2018 and November 2019, 22 EU/EEA data protection authorities issued 785 fines."
Google and Facebook are among those (https://www.zdnet.com/article/google-facebook-hit-with-serious-gdpr-complaints-others-will-be-soon/), but in practice not much has changed
"The GDPR allowed for coronavirus tracing apps to be developed, all while respecting personal data protection as a fundamental right. "
EU countries spend a lot more on data protection officers than they used to (42% increase in staff and 49% in budget for all national data protection authorities)
They love to point out how nowhere else has as comprehensive a set of rules
"Citizens are more empowered and aware of their rights" - 69% (nice) of people are aware of GDPR... which seems like a pretty loaded stat but sure.
Cool so we're good?
There's been some issues:
Cross border complaints have worked only okay: "Between 25 May 2018 and 31 December 2019, 141 draft decisions were submitted through the ‘one-stop-shop', 79 of which resulted in final decisions."
In Romania Dragnea (of in prison for corruption fame) tried to use their data protection office to demand sources from journalists (https://euobserver.com/justice/143356)
Probably the main issue.. which should have been apparent from the start was that tech firms tend to have EU bases in countries like say, Ireland or Luxembourg... who wouldn't have the cash for a big GDPR complaints processing centre. So there are big backlogs (https://www.politico.eu/article/we-have-a-huge-problem-european-regulator-despairs-over-lack-of-enforcement/)
For instance the Irish regulator is basically the centre for big cases against Google, Facebook, Microsoft and Twitter... so their backlog is large. Plus don't forget the Irish government isn't super keen on pissing those companies off (see the apple tax case!)
Oh so its being misused and bad?
Well no... The EU needs data protection rules. The alternative is worse, and the big theoretical merit of the GDPR is still there - its universal and not riddled with exemptions that favour big business massively.
Consider the contrast to the upload filter and link tax plans they had for copyright reform (https://juliareda.eu/2018/05/censorship-machines-link-tax-finish-line/). The GDPR is pretty simple in principal and is still there. Nobody is getting anywhere seriously trying to soften it. These sorts of rights are hard to take away. Yes you can argue it's not really being followed properly, but I think it's a harder task to say its bad.
People are trying to argue however that the GDPR needs fixing... and they think that should happen before any new rules such as legislating against facial recognition and other AI...
They argue that public trust in internet companies continues to drop so the GDPR isn't working, but its also too strict so should be abandoned... https://www.datainnovation.org/2019/06/the-gdpr-was-supposed-to-boost-consumer-trust-it-has-failed/
Also that "access to data" is harmed so it's bad for innovation (https://www.datainnovation.org/2019/05/the-eu-needs-to-reform-the-gdpr-to-remain-competitive-in-the-algorithmic-economy/).
The GDPR isn't the prettiest or most successful thing but its the one we've got and its far from the worst model to base future rules on emerging technology on -
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Show Notes
Also Happening: Irish Government Formation
FFG want to eat their vegetables but as part of an otherwise meat heavy diet
The actual programme for government: https://docs.google.com/file/d/1fVChGUMfzY1LkBPMDllxokHMnRSBU2Tk/view
Some issues which are well articulated by GP finance spokesperson Neasa Hourigan:
All of the financial modelling assumes Brexit and the economy will be totally fine, any deviation will likely be used as an excuse to backtrack on any social programs, healthcare and ding ding ding, the environment https://twitter.com/SaturdayRTE/status/1274433391916716039
The program implies there will be a 7% emission reduction will be every year compounded... but its an average which she thinks is a clear attempt to miss the target every year of the government (5yr) and claim they're going make up for it later when you re-elect them (https://www.thejournal.ie/neasa-hourigan-programme-for-government-5125103-Jun2020/)
Housing isn't well dealt with properly
The taxation stuff is probably the worst bit: "In doing so, we will focus any tax rises on those taxes which tax behaviours with negative externalities such as carbon tax, sugar tax, plastics, etc."
"medium-term roadmap detailing how Ireland will reduce the deficit and return to a broadly balanced budget."
Sounds to me like they're ruling out tax increases on companies and high earners which can only mean cuts... So how are they going to cut emissions or increase public services Eamonn Ryan has said he thinks there's a different economic consensus now but the agreement doesn't really bare that out -
Podcast Hugh mentioned - https://www.revealnews.org/episodes/monumental-lies/
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This week we're discussing the not terrible plan for a new wealth tax in Spain
But also remember to donate to bail funds https://secure.actblue.com/donate/bailfundsgeorge_floyd?refcode=cwg
Have you considered wealth taxes
Spain!
https://jacobinmag.com/2020/05/podemos-covid-tax-spain-psoe/
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/25/spain-crisis-wealth-tax-coronavirus
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Sorry no regular episode this week BUT here's a bonus episode we did for our lovely patrons.
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More money-talk between the parliament agitating for 2 trillion, the commission wanting 1 trillion and Merkel and Macron suggesting 500 billion. Also, watch out for financial wizardry!
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This week we discuss the German Constitutional Court's decision to pretend the ECJ and ECB don't have autonomy or supremacy over their opinions.
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Also Happening
German Court Ruling
https://www.d-kart.de/en/blog/2020/05/11/ultra-vires/
So what happened
German high courts overruled an ECJ ruling, which is... oops!
https://www.ft.com/content/2d4a6959-8bdc-4d74-b617-873bba839807
Good thread that explains the effects of this ruling
https://twitter.com/henrikenderlein/status/1257619628966191104?s=20 -
On today's episode, we do Matteo Matteo or Actually Good with the Spanish UBI or what the English press has called UBI. It's very misleading.
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Clearing some things up
Lockdown?
An issue of our recurring segment clearing some things up where we clear up what people mean by a somewhat misleading term because of how its used differently everywhere. This Guardian article includes a graphic saying the reopening allowed in different countries stipulating there's no easing in the UK, Ireland or Netherlands... which implicitly suggests a simpler picture than there is. The UK for instance always let children outside, but Spain is on the list for letting them out and considering allowing exercise outside on May 2. Not to say that one way is better for sure, but maybe we need to be more specific when we talk about lockdown. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/italy-unveils-plans-for-easing-of-coronavirus-lockdown-restrictions-conte https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-and-spain-announce-plans-to-ease-coronavirus-lockdowns-further/ After this is over the lack of coordination between countries in Europe that share land borders may be the real problem. The Commission has been urging coordination in lifting measures... which really seems to not be happening. Taking schools reopening: - France saying May 11 (?!!) - Belgium talking about May 18 - Italy saying September... -
This week in quarantine land we discuss the elections that have been postponed and those (looking at you Poland) that are bafflingly going ahead!
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No Election Left Behind... But maybe delay them?PolandAfter much fucking around they've settled on postal only voting... which ehh.. sure. The PiS are worried their mismanagement of the health service will be a bad look for them and might affect Duda's re-election chances.
Initially they said some of it by post (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/01/polish-government-still-planning-to-hold-presidential-election#maincontent)
Now they're saying all of it by post (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52199897)
But some problems with that:
Poland has never had a postal election and they only have a month to arrange one (queue alarm bells ringing about fraud/mistakes)
Collecting millions of ballots and counting them by hand via thousands of election districts (not to mention travel to pick up)... seems a bit like a disease vector to me.
The Polish constitution has a very specific entry about delaying elections for up to 90 days during emergencies (https://www.senat.gov.pl/en/about-the-senate/konstytucja/chapter-xi/), so why are they having it if not for political gain?
It's clearly because Duda, like many leaders is surgingly popular
https://www.ft.com/content/b1a6457c-7a5c-11ea-bd25-7fd923850377Also people want it postponed (2/3rds for postponing) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-poland-election/majority-of-poles-want-presidential-election-postponed-amid-coronavirus-survey-idUSKBN21C23T
Elections be dangerous in pandemics, who knew?The French had the brain wave of not cancelling the first round of their local elections (see France's 2 round system for everything). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_French_municipal_elections
The second round has now been delayed until after the lockdown. The lockdown began the next day on March 16... so why did they have the election?
Turnout was historic low of 45% (20% down from last time) https://www.france24.com/en/20200315-live-france-holds-local-elections-despite-coronavirus-clampdown
Poll workers had to wear some PPE... but clearly it was a completely unnecessary risk
South Korea is holding their national elections - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/south-korea-votes-in-first-national-election-of-coronavirus-era
but to be semi-fair they have new cases at a low and have testing/infrastructure in place to at least try do it. They've not had to rethink their voting system completely. I still think it's a terrible idea
Postponed
Macedonian
Serbia -
This week we discuss the EU's corona response in our wonderful reoccurring section, this is not it chief!
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That is not it chiefIsn't this exactly what the EU should be for?Well.. yeah probably, but it's the exact kind of thing some members would resist. Healthcare is weirdly absent and explicitly down to the member states. It's basically optional:
"Union action, which shall complement national policies, shall be directed towards improving public health, preventing physical and mental illness and diseases, and obviating sources of danger to physical and mental health. Such action shall cover the fight against the major health scourges, by promoting research into their causes, their transmission and their prevention, as well as health information and education, and monitoring, early warning of and combating serious cross-border threats to health"
Cool good start...
"The Union shall encourage cooperation between the Member States in the areas referred to in this Article"
Oh... so... not really their main jam
The EU has a centre for disease prevention and control (https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en), but it's pretty small and exists more to provide training/support to countries with perceived emergency plans.
Ursula said it's fine now though?Yeah... and it totally could have done this earlier. This is exactly the kind of positive thing the EU could be doing all the time but squabbling and money would prevent it. You'd easily find commission staff who would have loved to do this every commission cycle.
They've started a EU stockpike of ventilators, masks etc for pandemics (but only since March 19(
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_476)Joint procurement for ventilators got a lot of press in the UK for them "missing an email" or something... but why wasn't the mechanism for this already in place? (https://euobserver.com/tickers/147981). This is a wake up call for emergency procurement powers that aren't made up or renewed ad hoc requiring country level export bans (https://www.eurotopics.net/en/238112/coronavirus-how-can-europe-secure-more-face-masks)
France and Germany are taking Italian patients.. but only after there was already a huge problem. Again there should have been a plan in place for this already, there are on national levels, why not EU?
You could of had emergency bonds mechanisms in place so Mark Rutte couldn't have this opportunity to be a shitbag during a crisis (https://www.politico.eu/article/dutch-no-on-corona-bonds-undermines-european-project/). Or better yet pre-agree a bailout system of another sort...
Rethinking European SolidarityMacron, von der Leyen, umm.. basically everyone who's not Merkel or Weber, talk a big game of EU reform. An EU that works for the people or something... Well you could actually do that. 2008 and the Eurocrisis was the time for this. Rethinking the way EU solidarity in a crisis worked. They tried giant loans and fiscal rules, everyone hated them. Why isn't there a mechanism in place to deal with the next crisis? Because it was a hard discussion and they were busy giving vague statements or writing open letters.
Daniel Gros (of Centre for European Policy Studies) argues you could exempt the badly hit countries from paying into the EU budget... which could be a repeatable mechanism. It's much easier than loans and doesn't cripple the countries its supposed to benefit. "Corona solidarity" in less badly hit countries, or those who could better recover using their own coffers (see Germany - https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-to-ditch-balanced-budget-commitment-to-prevent-coronavirus-slump/)
https://voxeu.org/article/corona-transfers-instead-coronabonds
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Man this corona shit is wiiiiild!!! I hope Hugh can come back :|
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