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Today, we talk to Jennifer Pahlka and Andrew Greenway about their new paper on state capacity. It’s called “The How We Need Now: A Capacity Agenda for 2025 and Beyond.”
We discuss:
What is “state capacity?”
Why is there fresh interest in the topic in the UK?
How did the model of a “government digital service” spread to the US?
How do you fix unemployment insurance?
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.statecraft.pub -
Today, we’re diving into everyone’s favorite Statecraft topic: administrative law! The two court cases we’re discussing could have huge ramifications for how we build things in America.
We brought three of our favorite administrative law professors together: James Coleman is a professor at the University of Minnesota, Adam White is the Executive Director of the Gray Center for the Study of the Administrative State at George Mason University, and Nicholas Bagley is a professor at the University of Michigan and was Chief General Counsel to Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
We discussed:
* Why the National Environmental Policy Act is a problem
* How a small White House office grew to wield power Congress never gave it
* Why a seemingly simple environmental case has thrown environmental regulations into doubt
* Why D.C. appellate lawyers don’t challenge laws they believe are wrong
* The potential for reforming environmental review
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Fehlende Folgen?
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Today's interviewee has been my white whale for a while. Edward Luttwak was born in 1942, and since then he's lived a wilder life than anyone I know. From Chairman Mao's funeral to late nights drinking with Putin, Luttwak's seen it all.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(1:30) How to stage a coup in the 21st century
(8:21) Why Luttwak is responsible for a global decline in coups
(16:57) Iran’s real goals in the Middle East
(27:30) Why the CIA can’t go undercover or recruit talent
(41:11) Staffing Reagan’s presidential transition team
(44:03) Why we need more waste at the Pentagon
(57:31) How the war in Ukraine will end
(1:03:47) China’s great military challenge
(1:07:46) Snorkeling in French Polynesia
(1:09:48) Working for a Kazakh dictator
For the full transcript, visit www.statecraft.pub.
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Brief intros: Nicholas Bagley was General Counsel to Governor Gretchen Whitmer. Kathy Stack served almost three decades at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). Jenny Mattingley also served at the OMB, focusing on hiring reform and workforce efforts.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(04:42) “I think all three of you have something to say about the Paperwork Reduction Act.”
(12:38) A one-way ratchet
(22:16) How to get a new form approved
(32:04) Why is there no natural constituency to improve this?
(42:14) Inheriting judicial review from the Civil Rights era
(59:13) What should be on the new administration’s agenda?
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I’ve been trying to get a conversation with today’s interviewee, Eric Van Gieson, PhD, since March. Van Gieson is a remarkable character, with a crazy CV: more than 25 years of experience in developing medical technology, and stints at multiple federal agencies including DARPA.
A lot of people have spilled a lot of ink discussing what went wrong during COVID, but I think what Van Gieson lays out here is close to a comprehensive account of the reasons we blew it, and how not to blow it in the future.
We discuss:
* Why is the federal “pandemic preparedness” apparatus so sprawling?
* Why haven’t we learned from COVID mistakes, or even run reviews on what went wrong?
* How would you revamp the federal apparatus to be ready for the next pandemic?
* We don’t test whether generic drugs can fight pathogens. Why not??
* How did Van Gieson and colleagues ship a flying Ebola hospital in 6 weeks?
* How can we make sure DARPA-developed biotech doesn’t end up in the hands of adversaries?
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Today’s interviewee is Chris Anderson. Anderson’s a former DoD program manager who served in a unique organization called the US Army Asymmetric Warfare Group (AWG). Anderson is currently the Chief Operating Officer at Troika Solutions, a defense consulting firm based in Virginia.
We discussed:
The birth of the Asymmetric Warfare Group
Why American troops in Afghanistan couldn’t strike Taliban operatives
Why the military avoids risky technology, even when it would save lives
What we’ve learned about drones from Ukraine
The difference between drone use in Ukraine and in the Indo-Pacific
You can read the full interview transcript and find sources at www.statecraft.pub.
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I had the distinct pleasure of hosting Trae Stephens and Michael Kratsios on a panel in San Francisco in September on the topic of “Rebuilding the arsenal of democracy.” Trae Stephens is a general partner at Founders Fund and a Co-Founder of Anduril, a defense tech company that specializes in advanced autonomous systems.
Michael Kratsios served as Chief Technology Officer of the United States in the Trump White House. He also served as acting undersecretary of defense, where he was responsible for research and engineering efforts at the Defense Department. These days, he’s managing director of Scale AI.
We discussed:
* What’s wrong with the defense industrial base?
* How can we use tools like the Export-Import Bank to beat China?
* Can cutting Chinese tech out of supply chains hurt American companies?
* Will we see more tech talent in the next administration?
You can subscribe to Statecraft at www.statecraft.pub.
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Today’s episode is an interview with a colleague of mine at the Institute for Progress. Ben Jones is an economist who focuses on the sources of economic growth in advanced economies, and he’s a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at IFP.
We recorded this conversation at the second #EconTwitterIRL Conference last month in Lancaster, PA, which IFP hosted alongside the Economic Innovation Group). The other interview at that conference was excellent too: Cardiff Garcia interviewing Paul Krugman.
Jones has served in more than one executive branch role, including as the Senior Economist for Macroeconomics for the White House Council of Economic Advisors (CEA), during the first Obama administration. But what we spent most of our time talking about here was a broader question: What role does federal spending on science play in productivity growth?
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(2:03) Shadowing Larry Summers at Treasury
(3:46) Do national leaders actually affect economic growth?
(9:22) Whose job is it in the federal government to think about productivity?
(14:12) What market failure is solved by public R&D funding?
(19:45) What does the rise of team science mean for young scientists?
(32:47) Should we be bearish about the entire scientific enterprise?
(51:50) What levers can we pull to increase productivity growth?
(43:53) Audience questions
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Today, we spoke to Dr. Jeffrey Freeman, who directs the National Center for Disaster Medicine and Public Health (NCDMPH). Dr. Freeman leads a team that Congress has tasked with studying something called the National Disaster Medical System, which would coordinate how we treat casualties in the event of a hot war with a peer.
Freeman worries that our on-paper system for distributing patients is likely to collapse once the shooting starts, if we don’t make serious reforms.
Timestamps:
* (00:00) Introduction
* (00:18) Working with INDOPACOM
* (3:55) 1,000 casualties, every day, for 100 days
* (11:27) What private sector hospitals can expect
* (23:43) Preparing for situations you can’t predict
* (37:32) What happens when digital systems go down?
* (44:19) What’s the potential scale of a conflict like this?
You can read the full interview transcript at www.statecraft.pub.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.statecraft.pub -
A few months ago, I read a great essay by Sid Jha on the Chevron doctrine.
Sid had also written to me, saying he’d love a Statecraft interview about OIRA, the Office of Regulatory Affairs. It's the division of the Office of Management and the Budget that reviews all major regulations from agencies.
I thought this was a great idea, and I asked if he'd be interested in co-hosting an episode with me. Here’s the result: an interview with John D. Graham, who was the administrator of OIRA under George W. Bush.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:43) Where OIRA comes from
(09:20) How cost-benefit analysis got better
(12:59) How OIRA kills regulations
(26:51) Which agencies hate OIRA most
(34:31) Why command and control regulation persists
(39:44) What regulations OIRA focuses on
(46:10) John D. Graham vs. Dick Cheney
(50:46) Graham and the English First movement
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This week’s interview is a live recording of a panel I hosted three weeks ago at the Bottlenecks Conference in San Francisco, with Sam Hammond and Jen Pahlka. We discussed:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:39) Do the right and left disagree about state capacity?
(7:50) Will AI make the whole state capacity debate obsolete?
(11:05) What cues should today’s reformers take from the Progressive Era?
(14:19) Should Trump use Schedule F?
(20:18) Where is there bipartisan agreement on state capacity?
(25:29) Why didn't COVID create more governance changes?
Brief bios: Hammond is a Senior Economist at the Foundation for American Innovation where he focuses on AI policy. Pahlka is a Senior Fellow at the Niskanen Center and the Federation of American Scientists and the author of Recoding America. We’ve interviewed her before.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.statecraft.pub -
Today’s interviewee, Jonathan Luff, was a British diplomat for more than a decade, and worked on the British bid for the 2018 World Cup in the Prime Minister’s office.
Timestamps:
[00:00] Introduction
[00:21] How do you bid for the World Cup?
[11:37] Was the UK too naive to win a bid?
[20:52] Does British soft power still matter?
[23:51] What are the bottlenecks to British economic growth?
[31:37] Can Britain do strategic deterrence with limited resources?
[36:25] How do British diplomats and American diplomats differ?
[48:10] Was Cameron’s foreign policy all a mistake?
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Today's episode is about how the government procures military equipment. There’s a growing Washington consensus that we simply can’t buy the weapons we need, in the quantities we need, on the timelines we need.
To better understand what’s going wrong, we talked to Dr. Arun Seraphin. Seraphin just finished serving as a commissioner on a 14-person “blue ribbon commission” to investigate reforms to the way Congress and the military coordinate to buy things.
We got into:
How to design a commission to matter
Why the Pentagon’s IT doesn’t work
The value of pork
Directed energy weapons
Is the Asian pivot happening?
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.statecraft.pub -
Today’s interviewee, James Phillips, was formerly the science and tech adviser to Prime Minister Boris Johnson. An acclaimed systems neuroscientist, Phillips helped develop the UK’s rapid COVID testing and helped create the Advanced Research and Invention Agency (ARIA).
We discussed:
Dominic Cummings’ band of “weirdos and misfits”
Red-teaming Westminster
Why you should always be willing to resign
The problem with the British civil service
Protecting ARIA from mission creep
Whether the UK can end economic stagnation
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.statecraft.pub -
For the anniversary of the newsletter, I talk to Daniel Golliher of maximumnewyork.com about how Statecraft works, what we've learned, and the year ahead.
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.statecraft.pub -
Today’s interviewee is Matt Lira, who has held a wide range of insider roles on the Hill and White House. Our topic: Why Congress is so technologically weak, and how that can change.
We discussed:
* Why is Congress so slow to adopt technologies that would significantly ease operations?
* How did a Congressman unilaterally introduce live-streaming of Congressional hearings?
* Would a Google Docs-style comment system for legislation ever work?
* What would Davy Crockett’s social media presence be like?
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.statecraft.pub -
Russ Vought served as the director of President Trump’s Office of Management and the Budget (OMB). When the OMB under Vought withheld military aid from Ukraine, House Democrats initiated an investigation that ultimately led to Trump’s first impeachment.
Vought now leads a think tank, the Center for Renewing America, and is reportedly building a “180-day playbook” for implementing a policy agenda for a second Trump term. On Monday, the Associated Press claimed “Vought is likely to be appointed to a high-ranking post in a second Trump administration.”
Timestamps:
[00:00] Introduction
[00:18] How OMB works
[06:53] The two approaches to running the executive branch
[14:56] Why we have “an imperial Congress”
[20:12] The Ukraine impeachment
[33:21] Why there aren’t more conservatives in government
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Today, I spoke to Ernie Tedeschi, former Chief Economist at the Council of Economic Advisers (These days he’s Director of Economics at The Budget Lab).
Timestamps:
[00:00]“Fighting the last war” in stimulus packages
[00:23] What’s driving inflation
[11:59] The tools CEA economists have
[16:45] The tools CEA economists wish they had
[33:50] Are high interest rates driving low consumer sentiment?
[38:39] Why men are dropping out of the labor force
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.statecraft.pub -
The Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) helped bring Moderna’s mRNA vaccine through clinical trials to market. BARDA’s Division of Research, Innovation, and Ventures (DRIVe) is its in-house biotech venture capital firm, charged with identifying and incubating technologies for U.S. biodefense and preparedness.
Today's interviewee is Dr. Sandeep Patel, the Director of DRIVe from March 2020 to March 2024. Patel helped architect the program’s VC-inspired model and led the organization through its COVID response.
We covered:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:20) How cost-effective is BARDA?
(09:38) Venture-capitalism in government
(26:14) Hiring talent
(34:35) Question grab-bag
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The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is the world’s largest emergency supply of crude oil. In huge underground salt caverns along the Gulf of Mexico, the American federal government can store up to 714 million barrels, more than what the country uses in one month. Historically, the SPR has been tapped at the discretion of the president when natural disasters or crises cause the price of oil for consumers to spike.
But when Russia invaded Ukraine and oil prices went haywire, Arnab Datta and Skanda Amarnath proposed a novel idea: what if the SPR wasn’t just used as a stockpile of a commodity? If it used its ability to acquire oil strategically, could it support American industry and calm oil markets? Today, we talked to both of them.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:40) How do oil markets work?
(02:25) How has the SPR been used historically?
(07:42) Why oil investment kept dropping
(16:53) Arnab and Skanda's big idea
(20:55) Convincing the Biden administration
(23:45) "Fixed-price forward contracts"
(34:54) Isn't the SPR too small to shape oil markets?
(42:10) The SPR pilot buy fails
(51:09) A more aggressive approach
(58:01) Keeping the political coalition together
(01:02:26) The importance of elite media
(01:09:43) Did the SPR "beat OPEC"?
(01:12:52) Lessons for policy advocates
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.statecraft.pub - Mehr anzeigen
