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With great sadness, this is the last STRAT podcast that Mark Mansfield recorded. On Christmas morning, he sadly passed away, and while his cause of death is currently unknown, his zest for life, always curious mind, great wit, and profound intellect lives on, and his legacy and presence in these numerous STRAT podcasts is something all of us cherish as we mourn his passing.
In the world of Mergers and Acquisition (M&A), we see three legs to a successful stool in what we call “The STRAT Approach”:
1. Scenario Development / Testing (War Gaming)
2. Transaction Execution (Investment Banking)
3. Post Merger Integration (PMI)
Trillions of dollars are spent yearly on M&A, however it is widely assessed that 70% fail. This stunning failure rate, with all it implies, needs to be unpacked, because with the right approach there can be predictable success. If there is no clear connection between M&A strategy and corporate strategy, it is almost always a recipe for disaster. There are the Three C’s of Successful M&A:
Competitive advantage – ability to quickly assess/reassess how strategy will hold up / adapt to external drivers (WARGAMING)Capacity – FINANCIAL & ORGANIZATIONAL (Dry powder/accessible, capability to execute, is there change in process and can you handle more….. follow on acquisitions – programmatic strategy GAP ANALYSISConviction – consistency with team / management / Board of Directors (BoD) - there must be top level support / champion at top and what is being done must be well communicated and understood throughout organization and stakeholders (investors).Mark and Hal explore the vast intricacies of how to avoid M&A failure, and such topics as divesture considerations and even how ESG can be perceived as a drag in this process. Even though there is $2 Trillion in capital waiting to be deployed, M&A must be viewed holistically within the context of strategy and possible scenarios. That is the STRAT approach.
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While not with controversy, far reaching regulatory pressure is here to stay and at a global scale. It will impact almost every business level and on so many yet-to-be-determined terms. The most prominent is ‘ESG’ - Environmental, Social, Governance Is a huge tent that is being defined as we speak but with massive social, business and macro-economic consequences. There will be an impact – NO MATTER WHERE YOU ARE – across Operations / Supply Chains / and FINANCIAL MARKETS. DO YOU HAVE AN ESG STRATEGY? Plan B will be required in this dynamic environment.
Decarbonizing is a monumental national and global task, and big part of ESG momentum is driven by this broad imperative. Managing our emissions, direct and indirect, and then monitoring our performance for potential reward or penalties has become more and more an essential reporting function. It is having impact on our historical understanding/appreciation of the value chain. ESG is still being defined and very confusing. Organizations will need due diligence processes to ensure supply chains are environmentally responsible, no human rights abuse – really tough for multinationals. There is the new challenge of Greenwashing, an issue of creating the perception that business/product/brand is ESG compliant…but not… Among the issues are aligning ESG strategy and reporting. Separately is delineating ESG from DEI (Diversity, Equality and Inclusion), a very political overarching overlap that has consumed Governors like Ron DeSantis of Florida and Gavin Newsom of California.
Mark and Hal tackle these issues and much more in a riveting 20 minute discussion that captures key issues, opportunities and concerns of this high profile topic.
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All STRAT listeners:
It is with great sadness we must mention that this is one of the last podcasts recorded with my co-host, close friend and professional colleague Mark Mansfield. Unexpectedly and suddenly, Mark passed away on December 24th. We are all grappling with this enormous loss but are proud that we can still share his wisdom, insight, and great sense of humor once again.
-Hal Kempfer
On this episode...
Targeted/strategic decoupling (also called de-risking) to areas of manufacturing and supply chains. Building on our September discussions about Securing Strategic Sourcing as well as Making Manufacturing a Means of Mitigation, we now must calculate the macro-impact of October 7, 2023 events, and that we are now in a brave new world that must be readdressed. Latin America as our resource (commodities) rich southern neighbor with strategic linkage to Fortress North America (FNA). The 2000’s commodities boom (‘pink tide’ left wing governments) was followed by a blue tide that we must understand. Other global power houses including China and Russia are looking to South America to replicate the ‘African Strategy’/Belt and Road 2 to lock down strategic supply sources and challenge the West.
Chip Wars – American sanctions of advanced semiconductors and manufacturing equipment in 2020 were designed to stop tech transfer to China. Now see the Huawei Mate 60 Pro with its Kirin 9000S chip (made by SMIC) – which is equivalent to Samsung’s Galaxy S20 – (manufactured by Taiwan TSMC in 2020). They had successfully created a 5G smartphone despite these sanctions — what does this mean? Mark and Hal tackle this enormous challenge to the global supply chain and discuss better ways we can prepare and mitigate the threat this poses to our critical supply chains.
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The world in 2024 will be exposed to over 70 elections, a record that will test the limits of legitimacy, as well as credibility, and will impact more than 40% of the planet’s population as well as 42% of Global GDP. This hyperactivity, on an already fractured multipolar geopolitical game board, will frame the nature of trade, security and financial stability for the next decade. Further, leadership pivots are difficult in terms of anticipating policy continuity for climate change, global economics as well as military alliances; the stakes could not be higher. Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer will address these potential theatrics and consider the broader implications that could lead to a window of financial and political opportunity or a cliff leading to chaos in this episode of STRAT.
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The movement of goods and services - going to work, transporting raw materials as well as manufactured items, and providing predictable services in a harmonized fashion is critical to a solid economic culture and functional modern society. While the issue of "infrastructure" may seem to be an externality to most of us and something beyond our immediate control, it is essential to the success and even survival of our republic and global order - in which we are all stakeholders. The American Society of Civil Engineers grades American infrastructure as C minus, and public investment in domestic infrastructure as a share of GDP has fallen by more than 40% since the 1960s. US infrastructure was once rated the world's best and is now rated as 13th. In short, there is an enormous need for dramatic new infrastructure investment, and while the $1.7 trillion bill signed by President Biden is a big step forward, our domestic infrastructure problem represents an enormous shortfall that has increased more quickly than the public capacity to keep up. As the US and more broadly – ‘Fortress North America’, are grappling with this challenge, we are just part of a $15 trillion gap in what is needed to provide adequate global infrastructure by 2040. Private investment to date has been a drop in bucket, and this bucket is leaking fast. Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer tackle this challenge head on, discussing the significant problems, implications, and critical need for corrective action on this episode of STRAT.
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The world’s top two economies are devolving, and there is a desperate need to rebuild ties, both politically and economically with the rest of the world as stakeholders. To that point, a carefully orchestrated meeting between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden at the APEC Summit was held on November 17 in San Francisco, and the world now wonders what difference it made. If China and the USA continue to separate, the global economy will fragment – and this will inevitably lead to slower growth and more inequality, and geopolitical instability. In the worst case, the spiraling events could potentially cause a true world war. On this episode of STRAT the hosts see the threat of this divergence from a multi-polarity norm, per their previous discussions, as having potentially catastrophic consequences. Hope is that Xi considers that he has miscalculated. Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer discuss this and more in examining what is the biggest threat to the global order since the end of the Cold War.
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On this episode of STRAT, Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer tackle the issue of a fragmenting world order, where relative influence and leadership is shifting rapidly and framed by a US and China bilateral relationship tilting towards conflict. They look at various potential scenarios:
• There is no scenario where the US and China become fully cooperative.
• Most nations’ cost-benefit analysis’ support a world order where US leadership remains preferable to China or other non-aligned players.
• The extremes of either a UNIPOLAR or BIPOLAR world – i.e., an old Cold War style scenario, will morph into a MULTIPOLAR gameboard.
• As middle powers continually maneuver to remain relevant, a multipolar landscape creates the ‘off ramps,’ realignment options and triggers needed to dilute / balance the relative strength of both the US and China - (‘Balancers’: India, Japan, Germany, France, UK, and Canada).
• ‘Spoiler’ status will remain with Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
In an uncertain world, with an increasingly dynamic planning environment, this is 20 minutes you don’t want to miss.
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Co-Hosts Hal Kempfer and Mark Mansfield have returned from a Thanksgiving Break to get back to the reality of what forces and externalities are driving business decisions. On this episode of STRAT, they examine the overarching concern about climate change and renewables. It is real and it deserves focused analysis. They make it clear that there is a need for a reality wrapper on the unbridled enthusiasm that is creating a gap between goals and realistic milestones. There is a lot to unpack in terms of the How, the When, and the What in terms of economic reality, relevant science, and managing unintended consequences. How do hope and good intentions intersect with reality? It’s an important question and in this episode, Mark and Hal will objectively direct you on this complex issue with the objective to appreciate and adopt a balanced action plan for a sustainable future.
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There is no question that the US dollar’s position of being the Global Reserve Currency provides unparalleled strength as well as flexibility in borrowing. Some may argue, especially during this election cycle, there is too much flexibility. Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer take on this critical currency discussion, looking at opportunities and peril in our modern age, and all of it aimed at preparedness on this episode of STRAT. The US dollar dominance and its preservation has become a principal theater for the great power struggle between the United States, China, and Russia—placing the future of the Western or Liberal international order in the balance.
While the dollar is the only truly global currency in the world, and is widely used for transactions, pricing, settlement, and investment by governments and private actors outside the United States, there are other powers want to change that status, creating an alternative reserve currency. In addition, the role of cryptocurrency is discussed. As we all know, it is a phenomenon that is being actively explored and researched by academics, policymakers, investors, and consumers. While some equate it to “Dutch Tulips” of an earlier century, others feel it is truly the future of money. It is unknown what would happen to global or geographic financial stability if cryptocurrency replaced fiat currencies, but Mark and Hal take on this subject and more.
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There is a rising tide of terror in and environment where the events of October 7, 2023 changed everything. Co-hosts Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer discuss this and how to effectively mitigate and prevent these risks to maintain optimal business continuity on this episode of STRAT. They reference a long history of successful terrorism prevention efforts including one with unprecedented achievement in stopping deadly attacks on the U.S. West Coast. Further, they detail how a larger post-9/11 focus in public safety has become less ROI as pro forma box-checking and the malaise of bureaucratization has replaced attempts to do better in genuine measures of effectiveness.
When terrorism prevention fails, there are always dire consequences. The world is now seeing this new threat incur greater costs in protecting critical infrastructure, supply chains, workplaces, areas of assembly, and more. Listen to this edition for our experts take on strategies that have been successful in the past and will continue to be cost-effective into the future.
CLICK HERE for our Resource Center
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Hosts Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer discuss a conflict that could potentially upend global supply chains and spur enormous prices shocks here at home. Beyond the enormous human tragedy of October 7th and now the grueling military campaign in Gaza, lies how this conflict can affect the War in Ukraine and the hegemonic “ascendancy” of China. Could China see this as an opportunity for military action in the South China Sea threatening the critical supply of Taiwan chip manufacturing and pulling the US into an enormous war in the West Pacific?! Will this drive more focus on Fortress North America and renewed central planning regards ‘industrial’ policies by ‘capitalistic’ countries as they try to secure their economies?! Further, this goes to Iran, and its role as the regional armchair quarterback of radicalized mayhem and general troublemaker of the Middle East. Mark and Hal look at three potential scenarios: 1) the conflict stays contained to Gaza and Israel; 2) it expands into a multi-front proxy war that is largely contained within Gaza/West Bank/Lebanon/Syria; or, 3) it expands to the “Full Monty” of naked aggression by Iran that endangers transit through the Persian Gulf, Straits of Hormuz and Bab El-Mandeb, the Red Sea and Suez Canal. If you are reliant on good from overseas, or just pumping gas into your car, this podcast has something you need to listen too.
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It’s inevitable as a human decision makers, we can fall prey to cognitive/organizational biases.‘STRUCTURE FOLLOWS STRATEGY’ and it must be flexible enough to adapt to be thing that is always predictable - change. Rather than suffering enormous loss to (avoidable) “Black Swans,” Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer explain how to genuinely be prepared, and how to use a more strategic approach to both identifying and truly managing both risks and opportunities.
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On this episode of STRAT: Developing a successful business or government operation inherently means leveraging the right capabilities, knowledge and skills in a cost-effective manner. Maintaining continuity of operations in a crisis is even more demanding, as is strategic planning. Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer explore the advantages and pitfalls in both insourcing and outsourcing talent, and their perspectives and insights may surprise you, and possibly make you rethink core areas of your own organization.
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On this episode of STRAT, Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer dive into what may be the biggest change in our society since the internet, and before that the introduction computers. While everyone has seen Hollywood Sci-Fi’s about the dangers of drones, robots and sentient automation, what does this mean for business, government and how we live from a practical standpoint?! What planning and preparedness should we undertake, and what opportunities and threats does this really represent?!
While some would argue that this started in the ‘70’s when this kind of technology’s potential was recognized as a game changer – a particularly alluring prospect with the backdrop of the Cold War – what’s happening today seems to be occurring at such a rapid clip that it can seem to many of us as simply overwhelming. Leveraging technology is truly the new marching order. No one had complete idea of what this early-stage manifestation of applied drone systems and related fighting technology (to include lethal AI) would become. Well, welcome to 2023 and the shocking evolution that we are all witnessing and living through – and more importantly, what this will mean off the battlefield for business, the economy and government?
STRAT RESOURCE CENTER: CLICK HERE
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On this episode of STRAT with Hal Kemper and Mark Mansfield, today’s world is one of strategic risk, where the once ‘unlikely’ is now ‘likely,’ and the ‘never could happen,’ does happen. These events are awkward for everyone - leaders, stakeholders, and investors. As the famous Marine Corps poster of John Wayne as 'Sgt. John Stryker' in the Sands of Iwo Jima succinctly framed: "life's tough, but it’s tougher if you’re stupid.” While that message was bluntly aimed at those going through Marine Boot Camp in the movie, the parallel today is that ignorance is not bliss - the ability and capability to fully envision both probable and possible scenarios, and plan, accordingly, is not a "nice to have," rather it’s a strategic “must have.”
Too many organizations conduct their “planning” based on ill-conceived or ill-informed historical “assumptions” rather than a forward looking – ‘heads-up’ approach. To that point, President and General Eisenhower once said that ‘peacetime plans are useless, but peacetime planning is priceless,’ meaning it is the intellectual rigor of the planning process that helps prepare us for whatever will eventually happen, even if our current plans are not identical to the unfolding events; at the very least we must be somewhat prepared and ‘directionally correct’ to take action and mitigate risk.
Scenario based planning depends on fostering adaptability as well as flexibility, through a rigorous and dynamic planning approach. Too often this is lacking in companies subsumed with day-to-day ‘optempo’ requirements, or where the “opinion of the boss” vanquishes critical thought, “loyal opposition” to groupthink and desperately needed innovation. This must be broken down and replaced with objectivity, nimbleness, and an action mindset.
Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer explore the various facets of this topic, drilling down below the headlines and catch phrases to develop a better understanding of not just what it means, but figuring out what it means we need to do.
STRAT RESOURCE CENTER: CLICK HERE
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The world remains dependent on maritime supply chains. This merits serious attention given the dramatic changes in the overall maritime theater, specifically geopolitical tensions that create choke points through confrontation. The threats are framed not only by escalating sovereignty claims, but an unprecedented build up in naval warships as well as advanced weaponry – think underwater sensor arrays and drones, etc. Further, consider the threat of naval blockades in the Black Sea, Iranian "piracy" in the Persian Gulf, maritime terrorism in the Red Sea or transnational criminal cartels drawing tremendous profits from illegal operations waters worldwide,
However, regardless of the threat potential there is unlimited opportunity, if the threat environment is studied, understood and proactively addressed. "De-risking" vital supply chains have many levels of meaning, but again, almost all of them look to the sea. (See the STRAT Podcast: Securing Strategic Sourcing).
Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer explore the various facets of this topic, drilling down below the headlines and catch phrases to develop a better understanding of not just what it means, but figuring out what it means we need to do.
STRAT RESOURCE CENTER: CLICK HERE
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On this episode of STRAT...As global supply chains become increasingly more tenuous, and "de-risking" becomes a strategic by-word in industry and government, manufacturing technology and operations take on a renewed strategic importance reminiscent of the Cold War. In the concept of "Fortress North America," lines of internal communication and vertical integration are key, as business realizes that offshoring in places like China entails far greater risk on many levels. With the introduction of other variables, such as political upheaval, war and catastrophic events, extended supply chains emerge as a serious liability. Moreover, the manufacturing equation is being reworked given the flexibility that automation, artificial intelligence and robotics introduce, which can be a competitive advantage for both you and your competitor. STRAT looks at the risks, as well as the unintended consequences associated with some Manufacturing Strategies and Government Policies that are designed to recruit manufacturing tech/jobs but actually create ‘subsidy wars,’ and encourage commercial tech platforms to ‘subsidy shop,’ playing partners off against one another and unintentionally straining established political and defense alliances. STRAT looks at the risks as well as concrete “de-risking” actions and steps that can be taken to position manufacturing as a key means of mitigation.
Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer explore the various facets of this topic, drilling down below the headlines and catch phrases to develop a better understanding of not just what it means, but figuring out what we need to do.
STRAT RESOURCE CENTER: CLICK HERE
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As supply chains for critical materials, components and products have shifted and are still shifting, so must our strategic plans for making sure the sources of what we need are adequately "secured." In the concept of continuity of operations, we ae essentially trying to build a plan to keep one disaster from creating another. The pandemic brought this reality into stark and sudden awareness to everyone, as COVID related "shelter in place" and draconian "social distancing" orders dramatically curtailed economic activity worldwide. Factories shuttered, travel halted, schools were empty and stores were forced to close. In many cases, we saw not just reduced shipments of vital materials, parts and products, but the very business lifelines for innumerable firms completely stopped, and with that the livelihoods of millions. Store shelves, based on "just in time inventory,” quickly went empty. Certain products (e.g., masks, cleaning wipes, etc.) had to be rationed, if they were even available.
Now the War in Ukraine and potential conflict in the South China Sea have made us even more aware of the vulnerabilities we face. Gas, oil, wheat, nickel and so many more critical materials have all been dramatically impacted over the last two years. New global alliances have formed, older ones reinforced, and yes, some have crumbled. Many "sacred truths" of the post-Cold War globalization era are being rewritten, and our eyes are being opened to potentially catastrophic consequences if we are not truly prepared.
Mark Mansfield and Hal Kempfer explore the issues, and drill down below the headlines and catch phrases, to develop a far better understanding of not just what this change means, but figuring out what it means we must do. As the great scientist Louis Pasteur said, "Chance Favors the Prepared Mind," this is the chance to prepare your mind.
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If the “once every 500 year” flood or fire is occurring every 5-10 years, then obviously it is no longer a threat faced once every five centuries. Both natural and manmade disasters are occurring with more frequency and greater impact, yet too many private and public entities are relatively unprepared, attributing these events to being “black swans” or “acts of God” as if that alleviates them of the responsibility to manage and lead. As we all should know, Continuity Of Operations Planning (COOP) is far more than an “IT offsite,” it’s about ensuring your organization can continue to “stay in business” when external (and sometimes internal) threats and hazards undermine what we rely upon to even be in business, sometimes upending our very core “assumptions.” Mitigating and potentially “neutralizing” the impact of natural events takes understanding and planning, and a genuinely “prepared mind.” Globally experienced investment banker Mark Mansfield and widely recognized risk management expert Hal Kempfer target the real-world, relevant facets of this topic, drilling down below the headlines and catch phrases, exploring the fundamentals, and ultimately discussing what next steps are actionable and accessible on this episode of STRAT (Strategic Risk Assessment Talk).
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In this eye-opening episode of STRAT: Strategic Risk Assessment Talk, the hosts delve into pressing issues at the intersection of energy, environment, and global development. They kick off by examining Russia's stranglehold on atomic fuels, raising questions about its impact on the journey towards carbon neutrality. The discussion then takes a deep dive into the viability of solar and wind energy as primary solutions, dissecting the challenges that accompany their adoption. We thoughtfully explore the trade-offs between developing and developed nations, pondering whether developing countries can break free from the carbon-intensive path paved by their predecessors. The complex dynamics of solar and wind energy come into focus as the hosts unravel the reasons behind the 16 percent drop in installations during 2022 and the enduring cost fluctuations. Furthermore, the vulnerability of underwater power and the strain placed on outdated infrastructure by the surging number of energy projects awaiting grid connections are scrutinized, shedding light on the setbacks faced by the industry. With over 8,100 energy projects queued for grid integration by the close of 2021, the challenges of interconnection become apparent. Join Hal Kempfer and Mark Mansfield as they navigate through these intricate matters, providing unparalleled insights into the multifaceted landscape of strategic energy risk assessment on the Mutual Broadcasting System.
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