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In the first Lokniti podcast, Professor Sanjay Kumar, Mr. Yashwant Deshmukh and Mr. Pradeep Gupta, arguably the most eminent pollsters in India, discussed election forecasting based on survey methods. The discussion was moderated by Rukmini S posing intriguing questions to the panel.
The panel discussed the purpose of polling beyond the immediate estimation of electoral outcomes. Professor Kumar explained the traditional, tried-and-tested, random sampling method deployed by CSDS while Mr. Gupta describes the rigorous process of the door-to-door all-constituency method of Axis My India. Mr. Deshmukh shared the evolution and limitations of the Computer-Aided Telephonic Interview (CATI) method he pioneered at C-Voter.
The panel with an enormous wealth of experience behind them indicates the necessity of reforms in election forecasting in India. However, the highlight of the discussion was a shared experience of field hostility with researchers, often by party workers, and how it could be mitigated.
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