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Global indices are in the red today, weighed down by big tech stocks, which are struggling due to higher Treasury yields triggered by a worrying speech from a very respected Fed official. Investors are now fearing that rates could move up again.
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Fehlende Folgen?
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Wall Street reopens after the long Memorial Day weekend, and serious business resumes today, with fairly dense macroeconomic news ahead of the week's two major events: May inflation in the eurozone and April PCE inflation in the United States, for which we'll have to wait until Friday. But there's also a big change taking effect today on Wall Street that's causing a lot of angst.
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The mood on the financial markets has soured a bit. The euphoria seen after several indices reached records at the start of the week has given way to a more confused feeling, with the return of inflationary fears. It's all feels like déjà vu.
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There was a pretty colossal stakes surrounding Nvidia's quarterly results yesterday, after the bell. Western stock markets generally retreated in anticipation. Let's dispel the suspense right away: the share gained 6% after the release of its results, so it passed the test with flying colors.
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Investors hope that Nvidia can keep the AI magic alive, as demonstrated by yesterday's record highs on Wall Street. The answer is expected after the bell today when the company will unveil its quarterly results.
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While oil prices move up and down, bond yields wake up and metals prices go through the roof, equity markets remain resilient. Nevertheless, they need a new catalyst to keep pace with the Nasdaq rocket. That's pretty much the mood at the start of the week ahead of the release of Nvidia. Today, investors will also focus on speeches from many central bankers, who will perhaps try to lower their expectations.
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Last week was eventful in the financial world, and this week is shaping up to be exactly the same. It will be less focused on inflation and corporate results, and more on macro data. Earnings season may be drawing to a close, but there's one large cap left, releasing its results in the next few days: Nvidia. As usual, there's no escaping monetary policy, with a series of speeches from central bankers on the agenda.
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Every time the momentum slowed on the market over the past six weeks, something happened to give it another boost. Yesterday, it was weaker-than-expected inflation data, which made rate cuts more likely.
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The focus of investors is on US inflation data this week, as well as corporate results. The Nasdaq 100 hit a new record close yesterday, surpassing March 24 by 3 points. The index is a mirror of the tech sector, but also of investors' appetite for risk. It has increased its gains to 8.9% since January 1. Elsewhere, many indices are exploring or approaching uncharted territory, which reinforces overall confidence.
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Investors once again believed in a Fed rate cut in September. Doubts about the slight upturn in inflation were dispelled by a series of weak economic indicators. Today's producer price data was too mixed to have any impact on their thinking.
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Global markets have, for the most part, returned to the record highs set earlier in the year. Doubts about the evolution of US monetary policy, which led to a drop in indices in April, were eased by the robust earnings of major listed companies and the cooling of certain US economic indicators.
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Things a looking well for the three Wall Street indices this morning. Investors welcome good news for the economy (good results from Apple and Amgen), and bad news for the economy (but good for rate cuts - the weaker-than-expected jobs report).
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Jerome Powell managed to reassure investors yesterday. He did acknowledge a lack of progress lately in the Fed’s efforts to tame inflation, but reiterated that interest rates are still likely to be lowered this year.
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Investors bet on the right horse last week. The Magnificent Seven came to the market’s rescue, despite fears about the trajectory of the economy and rates, and talks about stagflation in the US. This morning, tech is also lifting indices.
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Yesterday’s lower-than-expected US GDP reading showed that the price component rose more than expected. Investors were eagerly awaiting today’s March inflation reading to get more clue about the health of the economy and the Fed’s future monetary policy.
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Earnings season is picking up pace, and the market is becoming increasingly unpredictable in how it reacts to new earnings reports. Good results aren’t enough to go up, bad ones aren’t necessarily taking a stock down, and a company can be criticized one day and worshipped the next. And now economic data is bringing old fears back...
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Investors saw yesterday’s weak economic data as a sign that all hope isn’t lost when it comes to rate cuts this year. This led indices to remain in the green for a second consecutive day. Strong corporate earnings are also helping to lift investor sentiment.
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