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Monday 6th May 2024
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The non-farm payrolls in the US came in lower than expected, with a rise in the unemployment rate. NAABâs Ken Crompton says we shouldnât get too excited by the unemployment rate because itâs a small move when you take it to the second decimal place. The Services ISM was also weaker, falling into contraction territory. The impact has been to bring forward rate cut expectations a little, with a 75% chance the Fed will move in September. In Australia home loans data wasnât particularly encouraging reading. The focus is now on the RBA tomorrow, then state budges later in the week. Will spending add to pressure on jobs, slowing the fall in inflation?
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Friday 3rd May 2024
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They dominated the global share market last year and many have enjoyed tremendous growth so far this year, with NVIDIA as the clear outperformer. Whilst thereâs a been a bit of an adjustment lately, Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies in Connecticut, says thereâs still plenty of momentum and their own analysis points to prices pushing higher. Katieâs approach is to build a portfolio based on technicals. âI do read macro strategists workâ, she says in this weekendâs podcast, âbut it wonât drive our decision making processâ. In other words, any macro development will be reflected in the indicators they follow at some point. And those technicals are painting a positive picture for most of the big tech stocks right now.
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Friday 3rd May 2024
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US productivity has slipped quite markedly in Q1, thatâs pushed up labour costs â is that something to worry about? Phil puts the question to NABâs Gavin Friend, who says markets are still responding to yesterdayâs dovish slant from the Fed. Non-farm payrolls will be watched keenly tonight, along with US Services PMI. Locally Australiaâs home loans data is out today. Phil and Gavin also talk through revisions to the OECDâs growth forecasts for the US, Australia, Europe and the UK.
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Thursday 2nd May 2024
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The Fed kept rates on hold for the sixth meeting in a row this morning, warning that there had ben a lack of further progress towards their 2% inflation target. NABâs Ray Attrill says it didnât really change market pricing for a cut, with the first fully priced move still looking like December. But there was a fair bit discussed during the press conference, from the terminal rate, the impact of the election and the possibility of a rate hike. Jerome Powell gave a cautious ânoâ to the rate hike. Listen in for the latest from the Fed and the latest data, including JOLTS from last night and Australiaâs trade data today.
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Wednesday 1st May 2024
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A month-end a day out from the Fed decision in the midst of some earning results for some heavyweight stocks, its hardly surprising we saw a lot of volatility in bonds, currencies and equities in this session. NABâs Skye Masters says yields pushed higher on the release of US employment costs, which were higher than expected, contribute g to more of a push back in the timing of Fed rate cuts. Jerome Powell would have to be uber hawkish to pish rates any higher says Skye, but weâll know this time tomorrow.
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Tuesday 30th April 2024
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German inflation numbers overnight were stickier than expected, presenting a challenge for the ECB, one of the few central banks that has been talking-up the mid-term rate cuts. Phil asks NABâs Rodrigo Catril if this puts June cut in jeopardy, or the expected follow-up cuts later in the year. Elsewhere we saw a sharp reversal in the value of the Yen. Has it been driven by intervention, or at least the anticipation of it? Australiaâs retail numbers will be the focus locally today.
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Monday 29th April 2024
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The US March PCE Deflator number on Friday was broadly in line with consensus, but NABâs Tapas Strickland says upward revisions to the January and February numbers show inflation remains persistent which delays further the timing of cuts by the Fed. There werenât big moves in bond yields but that could all change with a busy week for US data, including ISMs and Payrolls, along with Wednesdayâs FOMC meeting. To add some spice to the equation The Wall Street Journal reported that Donald Trump, if he were to become President again, might challenge the independence of the central bank. There was a strong move down in the Yen on Friday after the Bank of Japan did little to support the currency and thereâs a question as to whether they will lift rates at all this year. With inflation so low, do they need to?
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Friday 26th April 2024
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Australia is well placed in terms of natural resources for the green energy transition. We are already one of the worldâs largest exporters of lithium, in-demand for the production of batteries, primarily for electric vehicles. Alison Reeve, Energy and Climate Deputy Program Director at the Grattan Institute, joins Phil to talk about how Australia can gain maximum benefit from the drive for NetZero. Can we, for example, move up the renewables value chain, so we donât simply extract minerals and ship overseas. Thereâs an enormous opportunity, says Alison, provided we recognise the strengths we provide and where in the chain we stop adding value. In this wide raging discussion they also look at the growth of sodium-ion batteries, hydrogenâs place in Australiaâs future and the pitfalls of localised solar cell production.
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Wednesday 24th April 2024
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Is stagflation on the horizon for America? Itâs a question Phil puts to NABâs Rodrigo Catril after we saw slower growth and rising prices in data out on Wednesday. Could slow growth impact the euphoria around the Magnificent Seven? Well not just yet, as Microsoft and Alphabet have both enjoyed double digit percentage growth in after-hours prices o the back of strong earnings data. They also discuss Australiaâs latest CPI data which will mean a revised forecast from the RBA, but what does it do to the speed of rate cuts? And could the Bank of Japan surprise today, as the Yen hits another low?
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Wednesday 24th April 2024
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PMIs showed some strength in Europe, but were generally weaker than expected in the US. NABâs Taylor Nugent says itâs the US numbers that generated a market reaction because it adds to the leading indicators that challenge the notion of US exceptionalism and that the gap between the US and Europe is closing. Today the quarterly CPI print for Australia is unlikely to move the dial on RBA cuts, even if it comes in slightly lower than expected. Plus, Teslaâs earnings results, which have seen a rise in after hours pricing.
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Tuesday 23rd April 2024
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The force of AI is strong it seems. Itâs certainly pushing equities back up again in the US ahead of earnings results for several of the Magnificent Seven later this week. Meanwhile, bond markets and currencies have calmed down, although the pound is weaker on expectations for an earlier cut by the Bank of England. Today PMIs for the UK, US and Europe will give a clearer indication of the relative strength of each economy and, perhaps, justify the different schedules being pursued by the various central banks. JBWere's Sally Auld talks through it all on todayâs podcast.
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Monday 22nd April 2024
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The magnificent seven have been taking a hit in the US share market. NABâs Ray Attrill says the forward-guidance for Netflix wasnât received well, and four more of th large tech stocks report this week. Meanwhile, there were further signals of delays in Fed rate cuts, whilst the impetus in Canada, Europe and the UK seems to be, if anything, moving the other way. But, assuming no further escalation in the Middle East, it seems likely that US equities might be the focus in the early part of this week.
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Friday 19th April 2024
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This week we saw the divide between European despondency and American exceptionalism widen a little further. The IMF upgraded their US growth forecasts, whilst nudging Europeâs a little lower. But itâs not all doom and gloom. Melanie de Bono, senior Europe economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics in London, says the economy is already benefiting from real wages growth which should accelerate domestic demand, whilst a June cut by the ECB seems likely, with Pantheon predicting four cuts in total this year. Thatâll free up even more household spending whilst boosting the investment opportunities for business. But is there the confidence in the economy to support that shift in demand and production? And what of a likely trade dispute with China and the potential of increased geopolitical volatility in the Middle East? Could they impact inflation and hinder Europeâs relatively lacklustre growth opportunity?
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Friday 19th April 2024
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Fed speakers are increasingly pushing expectations for cuts further back in the year. John Williams even suggested heâd entertain the idea of a rate rise if it was warranted. Thatâs coming from one of the more dovish members of the FOMC says NABâs Ken Crompton. Ken also takes us through yesterdayâs employment numbers for Australia and looks ahead to Japanâs CPI and UK retail numbers today. And we give you the latest Netflix earnings â a knockout for new subscribers. Plus a taste of whatâs to come on the Weekend Edition.
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Thursday 18th April 2024
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Markets were mixed overnight. The dollar lost a bit of ground, AUD and NZD outperformed, bond yields fell, while US equities have continued to struggle. The only geopolitics to speak of came from Joe Biden talking upping the need to impose hefty tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium imports. NABâs Rodrigo Catril says it as a bit of electioneering and pacifying the US steel industry. Today Australiaâs employment numbers will be the focus. The unemployment rate rose considerably in February but as Rodrigo points out, these numbers can be very volatile.
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Wednesday 17th April 2024
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Thereâs been a significant shift in sentiment from central bankers at the IMF meeting in Washington. Jerome Powell, who had previously seemed happy to accept rate cuts relatively soon, is now signalling it will take longer. IMF forecasts that significantly upgraded US growth for this year might have added to the pressure to cool things a little. Meanwhile, Andrew Bailey from the Bank of England, who it was assumed was prepared to wait till after the Fed, is now talking about inflation coming down, suggesting a cut sooner might be possible. Perhaps a sharp rise in unemployment influenced his thinking. NABâs Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through the latest data and words from the mouths of central bank speakers.
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Tuesday 16th April 2024
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The latest retail numbers showed the resilience in the US economy. NABâs Ray Attrill says its surprising given the fall in household savings, but there are more people in work feeding the spending habit. These stronger than expected numbers havenât changed expectations for the timing of rate cuts by much, but bond yields have pushed higher and lifted the US dollar a little further too. A weaker Yen and Aussie dollar have been two of the consequences. Today employment data for the UK, CPI for Canada and GDP for China. Plus the latest forecasts from the IMF.
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Monday 15th April 2024
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How markets respond to the Middle East situation this week really depends on whether Israel retaliates. The expectation of the weekendâs drone attack on Israel by Iran pushed the US dollar higher, bond yields lower and caused some damage to equities. NABâs Taylor Nugent says there hasnât been much response in early trade today, but Bloomberg Economics is predicting a sizeable spike in oil prices if this broadens to a regional war, with the subsequent impact on global GDP and inflation. Thereâs also discussion on Chinaâs trade numbers from Friday, the weakening Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey and what to look out for today, besides the latest geopolitics.
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Friday 12th April 2024
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Financial advisors could be missing a trick. So many of them are men, used to dealing with men, yet the customer base is shifting. High net worth women are accumulating their own assets, from their own lucrative careers, from intergenerational wealth passed to them, from managing their parents asets or as proceeds from a divorce. Data from last year showed that male millionaires were growing at a rate of 3.6% per year, whereas female millionaires were growing at 5.7% per year. So, is this industry geared up for this?
JBWere CEO Maria Lykouras doesnât think the industry is adapting fast enough, which is why she commissioned research, summarised in a new report on the Growth of Women and Wealth (pdf). On the Weekend Edition she explains where the industry is falling short and how it can adapt, and what she is doing to get JBWere up to speed on the opportunity.
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Friday 12th April 2024
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Christine Lagarde said a few members of the ECB were ready to cut rates now, even as the ECB President announced that, for now, rates will stay on hold. Was this the strongest suggestion yet that a June cut will happen? Phil asks NABâs Gavin Fiend what he took from the ECB meeting overnight. Meanwhile, US PMIs didnât help the case for those looking for signs of US prices falling faster. Quite the reverse. Bad news for the UK too, with one MPC member saying the BoE shouldnât cut before the Fed, although that simply supports NABâs base case that the BoE is some way away yet.
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