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On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the frustration of Penn State football and draw parallels to the economy. Just like Penn State’s repeated mistakes, the labor market shows signs of weakness despite misleading headlines. We dive into the latest disappointing jobs report, rising unemployment, and the increasing likelihood of Fed rate cuts. Plus, we look ahead to a potentially volatile week with the election and Fed meeting on the horizon.
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We're baaaaack! On this week’s episode of The Rate Guy, we talk about why we can’t take vacations! We step away for a moment, and everything goes haywire. An exasperated JP dives into the current market craziness, and reassures everyone that we're back for a while, and things will (hopefully) settle down.
Tune in as we break down Core PCE, GDP forecasts, and what to expect from the next jobs report. Is inflation really making a comeback? Can strong GDP calm the markets? And what’s the Fed's next move?
Plus, highlights from our Iceland adventure—stunning waterfalls, elusive northern lights, and why the Blue Lagoon left us seriously underwhelmed.
To see a few shots from our trip check out the Pensford Newsletter.
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Fehlende Folgen?
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss how to view the latest Jobs print and how it won't impact the Fed's move in November.
FYI the graph is full of orange representing the Unexplained Employment.(not red as Sarah remembered on the podcast) To view in the Pensford newsletter click here.
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On this episode of The Rate Guy, we break down the latest economic data, including inflation, jobs reports, GDP. GPI, and why the Fed might be boxed in on rate cuts. Tune in for all the insights and our take on what’s next.
Plus, JMo finally conceded defeat on our inflation bet, and we unveil his identity!
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On this episode of The Rate Guy, we’re keeping it short and sweet. We’re prepping for Wednesday’s rate cut decision and breaking down 7 reasons why the Fed won’t go for a 50bps cut, despite market hopes. We’ll also touch on what you might want to do with caps ahead of the meeting.
Here is the link to register for the Q3 Interest Rate Webinar that you won't want to miss!
Topics of DiscussionRegister to attend Pensford's quarterly markets and interest rate update on September 19th, 2024 at 1:00pm EDT.
This webinar will cover a variety of topics including:
Fixed and Floating Rate Forecasts Rate Cuts Faster than Expected Whether Rate Cuts are too Late Labor Market Weakness Risk of Recurring Inflation Hedging Against Falling Rates -
In this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss why cutting rates to 3.25% might be the right move for the Fed.
Fed Chair Powell recently stated at Jackson Hole, “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” which has huge implications for future rate cuts. With job gains averaging just 116k per month, we break down why the benchmark for job growth is 100k—not zero—and how that ties into the Fed’s decision-making.
We also dive into research, like Indeed's Nick Bunker’s analysis on how much the labor market has already cooled (link), and ask the key question: will cutting rates fast reaccelerate inflation?
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On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the latest inflation data, why the Fed will cut rates, regardless of what Friday's Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report reveals and what may influence a 50bps cut instead of 25bps. We also address concerns about the economy heating up again when the Fed starts cutting and why that's not going to happen.
Link to the CNBC article about fake jobs.
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Football season is back, and so is JP's trash talk! In this episode of The Rate Guy, we touch on some friendly (or not-so-friendly) college football banter and dive into the real game: Fed policy moves. With Powell signaling a rate cut next month and the labor market's true strength under scrutiny, we break down what this means for the economy. We'll also explore how misleading job data could be skewing perceptions and why easing off the brakes might be just what the economy needs right now.
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's Jackson Hole meeting where the theme is “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” We talk about some of the things they might touch on and how the market may react. We also discuss the consumer spending situation; why it's not as rosy as the number suggests and why these red flags have not yet caused a more significant slowdown in consumer spending.
Here is the link to the quarterly report that the NY Fed puts out on consumer debt that we discuss. For graphs referenced, check out this week's Pensford Newsletter.
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On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we get a little creative and compare Olympic athletes to players in the Interest Rate game. On the heels of a couple data heavy weeks, we hope this is a breathe of fresh air for you all. And you may be asking, there's a connection between the Australian "break dancer" and interest rates!? Yep, there sure is!
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In this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast, we dive into the concept of the "JP Rule"—the idea that, given enough time, JP is always right—and compare it to the established Sahm and Taylor economic rules. We also cover one of the most significant economic weeks in recent memory, possibly since the Fed began hiking rates. There’s a lot to discuss this week, including the potential number of rate cuts this year and the factors that could influence them. We'll explore the chaos that erupted after the latest jobs report, the implications of the Sahm Rule being triggered, and the importance of the Quits, Layoffs, and Labor Supply report. Tune in to find out why these issues deserve your attention.
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what to expect at this week's upcoming Fed meeting, jobs report and what impact those may have on rates and cap pricing. JP also gives an update on the JMo wager!
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On this week's episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting and its potential impact on interest rates. We'll cover market updates, dive into recent Fed speeches and we'll continue our Cap conversation exploring cap pricing scenarios and the effects of market volatility.
The good article referenced was by WSJ journalist Greg Ip link here and indicated the Fed should begin cutting now.
This was a graph heavy newsletter! To view them in the newsletter, click here.
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we dive into last week's CPI report, how it may impact rate trajectory, how cap prices may behave in a falling rate environment and what strategies you should be considering for your upcoming caps.
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the "HOT" jobs data, the upcoming inflation data, Powell's testimony and the liklihood of Fed cuts this year.
As always you can read the Pensford Newsletter here.
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On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we dig a little deeper into the recent Jobs Report and discuss the underlying data that should be getting attention, CPI, the ECB cutting and how all of that may affect this week's Fed meeting.
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we’re breaking down the Core PCE numbers and JMo's wager tracker—are we heading to the Caribbean or not? Plus, we explore why the Fed might be shifting its focus from inflation to jobs, the implications of recent job reports, and what Friday's labor data could mean for future rate cuts. Join us as we take a closer look at the economic balancing act the Fed is faced with and how that could shape the rest of the year.
In case you want to check out the interesting piece we reference by Dr. Jeremy Horpedahl that suggested job gains are artificially inflated. Read Here
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss all things inflation, the cracks that Jay$ (Jerome Powell) may be paying closing attention to and the probability of rate cuts and why JP thinks that could be wrong.
If you haven't already, subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter to see visuals that we reference in the podcast, as well as any breaking news we tackle mid-week.
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the different AI models, their strengths/weaknesses and origins that you might not know. We then dive into interest rate talk, the small exhale the market experienced last week, odds of a rate cut this year, info around the bid to cover ratio (linked article referenced) and we cap it off with an AI recording of the rap battle below!
Hedge Advisor Rap Battle
Given Kendrick Lamar and Drake’s rap battle, I thought it would be interesting to see how Claude would have us battle with the other hedge advisors out there.
Pensford
Yo, it’s Pensford in the ring, call me the rate sage,
Missed a prediction or two? Yeah, but I turn the page.
Two years back, Fed moves had me in a daze,
But I evolve, adapt, and still set the stage.
Competitors
Hey Pensford, you think you’re the guru of the rate,
Missed the hikes, now you’re just trying to skate.
Chatham here, we’re giants, you’re just bait,
Sports in finance? C’mon, bruh, that’s second rate.
Pensford
Chatham’s got the size, but where’s the agility?
Forced out your founder, lost more than stability.
I keep it real, take a stand with ability,
While you sit back, no opinion, no liability.
Competitors
Pensford’s small time, flying in that tiny plane,
No market sway, just playing a losing game.
Your jokes fall flat, just like your rate claim,
Stick to sports, ‘cause in rates, you ain’t got no fame.
Pensford
CIRM, oh please, your strategy’s a maze,
Complex for no reason, clients lost in a haze.
And RCA? That flat fee’s just a phrase,
Blindsiding custys at closing? Your ethics, a craze.
Competitors
You’re just jealous, Pensford, of the leads we acquire,
Cold calls, maybe, but they ignite the fire.
Your data obsession? That’s just you in the mire,
While we adapt and soar, ever higher.
Pensford
Derivative Logic, you’re just copy and paste,
Stealing my style, but you can’t match my taste.
I’m the original, in this game, I’m laced,
With clever comebacks, watch how you’re displaced.
Competitors
Pensford, all talk, but where’s the proof?
Your forecasts fail, they’re just aloof.
We might borrow, but we stay under the roof,
Of innovation and truth, not just glib reproof.
Pensford
So here’s to Pensford, where cleverness reigns,
We miss a beat, but our humor sustains.
I’ll keep throwing verses, breaking these chains,
’Cause in this rate battle, it’s clear who gains.
Jay$
Hold up, hold up, let me step in this cypher,
Jay$ on the mic, about to make it hyper.
Y'all acting like children, throwing tantrums and shade,
While I'm steering this economy, making tough trade.
Pensford, you question my moves, but where's your degree?
State school educated, thinking you can school me?
I've got the cred, the experience, the clout,
My decisions are sound, no need for you to doubt.
Two years of rate hikes, and we're still standing strong,
Soft landing achieved, proving y'all doubters wrong.
I'm tired of being judged by those who can't see,
The bigger picture, the complexity, the responsibility.
We're in the last mile, inflation's final stand,
Like 8 Mile's battle, it's time to take command.
The Fed's my 313, Detroit of finance,
We'll slay this inflation beast, no matter the chance.
So keep your petty squabbles, your juvenile rhymes,
I've got a job to do, guiding through uncertain times.
Jay$ out, dropping the mic with finality,
'Cause when it comes rates, I'm the ultimate authority.
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the most overlooked takeaways from the Fed meeting, QT tapering, how the 10T is affected and what the jobs report is telling us.
To check out the graphs referenced read the Pensford Newsletter here.
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