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PRE-IPO STOCK FUNDS CLOSING TO NEW INVESTORS ON SEP 13 (NEXT FRIDAY)
AG Dillon has seven (7) pre-IPO stock funds closing on Friday, Sep 13. Next Friday. See fund list at www.agdillon.com/product (page 3). Available for purchase at Schwab, Fidelity, or directly at AG Dillon. Email [email protected] to invest
Subscribe to AG Dillon Pre-IPO Stock Research at agdillon.com/subscribe;
- Wednesday = secondary market valuations, revenue multiples, performance, index fact sheets
- Saturdays = pre-IPO news and insights, webinar replays
00:07 | Safe Superintelligence Raises $1B for new AI LLM
- AI venture focused on creating safe AI models
- Co-founded by Ilya Sutskever, Daniel Gross, and Daniel Levy
- Raised $1B in May 2024 from investors like Andreessen Horowitz and Sequoia Capital
- Offices in Palo Alto and Tel Aviv
- For-profit entity addressing AI safety
00:43 | OpenAI Hits 200M Weekly Active Users for ChatGPT
- AI large language model business
- ChatGPT now has 200M weekly active users, doubling since Nov 2023
- 1M paid corporate users, up from 600K in April 2024
- Expected to generate $2B annually from $20/month premium subscriptions
- 50% of corporate users are in the U.S.; strong presence in Germany, Japan, U.K.
- Secondary market valuation: $103.8B (+20.7% vs Apr 2024 round)
01:33 | Salesforce Acquires Own Company for $1.9B
- Data management firm specializing in data backup and recovery
- Acquired by Salesforce for $1.9B in cash
- Previously valued at $3.35B in Aug 2021
- 7,000 customers; raised $507.3M from Tiger Global and Salesforce Ventures
- Global data backup market valued at $12.9B in 2023, growing at a 10.9% CAGR
02:14 | ByteDance Raises $600M for Dongchedi, Valued at $3B
- Chinese parent company of TikTok
- Raising $600M for car trading platform Dongchedi
- Dongchedi boasts 35.7M monthly active users
- Competing with platforms like Autohome and Bitauto
- Secondary market valuation: $300B (+11.8% vs Dec 2023 round)
03:00 | Anthropic’s Claude AI Powers New Amazon Alexa
- Amazon to release new Alexa powered by Anthropic’s Claude AI in October
- Paid version to cost $5-$10/month; current version remains free
- Estimated $600M in annual sales if 10% of Alexa’s 100M users opt for the paid version
- Anthropic has a $23.6B secondary market valuation (+31.4% vs Jan 2024 round)
03:49 | xAI’s Colossus System Becomes Most Powerful AI Trainer
- AI large language model business by Elon Musk
- Colossus built with 100,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs in 122 days, doubling to 200,000 GPUs
- Phase 1 cost estimated at $2B, located in Memphis
- Colossus will consume 150 megawatts of power and 1M gallons of water daily for cooling
- Secondary market valuation: $26.1B (+8.9% vs May 2024 round)
04:45 | X Launches Beta Version of TV App for Fire TV and Google TV
- Formerly Twitter, now focusing on becoming a "video-first" platform
- Launched beta version of TV app for Amazon Fire TV and Google TV
- Initial feedback suggests bugs, but fixes are anticipated soon
- Aimed at reviving ad revenue and attracting video creators
05:26 | Fidelity Cuts X Holdings Valuation by Another 4%
- Fidelity reduced X Holdings (formerly Twitter) valuation by 4% in July
- Total decrease of 72% since Elon Musk’s acquisition in Oct 2022
- New valuation implies X shares are worth $15, down from Musk’s original $54.20/share
- X’s total value now approximately $21B
06:03 | Pre-IPO Stock Market Weekly Performance
06:48 | Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index Weekly Performance -
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00:19 | FigureAI (humanoid robots)
- AI and humanoid robots drive efficiency and will drive cost of goods/services to $0, drive unlimited GDP
- $675m raise $2.6b valuation; OpenAI, Microsoft, Nvidia
- 10b humanoid robots by 2040
- Musk is projecting 16b to 32b humanoid robots, Telsa Optimus is a humanoid robot
- humanoid robots fit easily into a human world to easily replace humans
11:49 | Stripe
- These companies are so big they’re doing share buybacks!
- Planning new tender offer to repurchase shares from employees
- Entire offer financed with Stripe’s own cash, a shift from external funding
- Generated $615M in free cash flow in June quarter vs. $500M cash burn in 2022
- Valuation at $70B (secondary), up from $50B in 2022 and $65B in last tender
- Up to 8,000 employees can sell up to $50,000 of vested shares at $27.51/share
- Expanding beyond core payments into billing software; segment on track for $500M annual revenue
25:39 | xAI
- xAI differentiators are becoming clear; real time data, most accurate answers, Musk effect (i.e. unlimited capital)
- AI large language model platform business
- Released Grok-2 and Grok-2 Mini beta LLMs on X platform
- Enterprise API arriving later this month
- Top-four position on LMSYS chatbot leaderboard
- Grok-2 Mini: efficient, ideal for speed/resource-critical scenarios
- Focus on expanding multimodal understanding
- Available to Premium/Premium+ subscribers on X at $8/month
- Secondary market valuation: $25.7B (+6.9% vs May 2024 round) -
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Subscribe to AG Dillon Pre-IPO Stock Research at agdillon.com/subscribe;
- Wednesday = secondary market valuations, revenue multiples, performance, index fact sheets
- Saturdays = pre-IPO news and insights, webinar replays
00:07 | xAI Launches Grok-2 and Grok-2 Mini on X Platform
- AI large language model platform business
- Released Grok-2 and Grok-2 Mini beta LLMs on X platform
- Enterprise API arriving later this month
- Top-four position on LMSYS chatbot leaderboard
- Grok-2 Mini: efficient, ideal for speed/resource-critical scenarios
- Focus on expanding multimodal understanding
- Available to Premium/Premium+ subscribers on X at $8/month
- Secondary market valuation: $25.7B (+6.9% vs May 2024 round)
02:11 | Klarna Expands into Banking with New Products
- Payments and consumer lending business
- Launched "Klarna balance" and "cashback" in 12 markets, including U.S. and Europe
- Klarna balance offers up to 3.58% interest in EU, no interest in U.S.
- Expansion to disrupt retail banking and increase customer loyalty
- Tied to lending products, potentially reducing default rates
- Secondary market valuation: $10.3B (+53.4% vs Jul 2022 round)
- Rumored tender offer could precede IPO
03:15 | Epic Games Targets Mobile Market with New Storefront
- Virtual reality and video game tech company
- Launching new mobile storefront, targeting 100M installs by year-end
- Aims for significant share of $188B games market, 50% from mobile
- 12% transaction fee vs. 30% from Apple/Google
- Store to open to third-party developers in December
- Secondary market valuation: $18.0B (-20.2% vs Feb 2024 round)
04:21 | Ramp’s AI-Powered Growth Drives $9.1B Valuation
- Fintech company founded in March 2019
- Valued at $9.1B (secondary), +19.6% vs Apr 2024 round
- Serving 25,000+ businesses, including Shopify and Boys and Girls Club of America
- AI used for transaction categorization, bookkeeping, expense management
- AI in sales and marketing boosts efficiency and profitability
- Rapid growth with lean operational structure
06:28 | X/Twitter Projects $2B in 2024 Ad Revenue
- Projected $2B in 2024 ad revenue, down from $2.5B in 2023 and $4.5B in 2021
- Focus on payments, video, and AI innovations
- Plans for payments system with "Payments" button in navigation
- X TV app launched on Amazon and Google platforms
- Competing directly with YouTube's massive market share
- Fidelity values X at $12.3B (-72% from Oct 2022 acquisition)
08:45 | Databricks Acquires Tabular in $2B Deal
- Analytics and AI company
- Acquired Tabular for nearly $2B, despite $1M in annual recurring revenue
- Tabular backed by $30M from Altimeter Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, Zetta Venture Partners
- Acquisition driven by competition with Snowflake
- Databricks' current valuation: $42.7B (secondary), -1.2% vs Nov 2023 round
- Snowflake's struggles compounded by a data breach affecting AT&T customers
09:49 | Hadrian Acquires Datum Source to Enhance Defense Capabilities
- Defense tech company
- Raised $220M since 2020, valued at $500M (secondary)
- Acquired Datum Source, valued at $30M, to better serve defense startups
- Acquisition brings 30 new customers, Datum's 14-person team
- Part of a broader trend of acquisitions in defense tech, with $129.3B VC invested since 2021
10:50 | Pre-IPO Stock Market Weekly Performance
- agdillon.com/subscribe to receive weekly pdf report in your inbox
11:38 | Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index Weekly Performance
- agdillon.com/subscribe to receive weekly pdf report in your inbox -
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00:22 | Groq’s $640M series D drives valuation by 143%
- Semiconductor company focused on AI inference chips
- Raised $640M in Series D, valuation up to $2.8B (primary)
- 143% increase from Feb 2024 round
- Backed by Cisco, Samsung, BlackRock
- Funds to scale tokens-as-a-service and deploy 108,000 LPUs by 2025
- Aims to challenge Nvidia in AI chip market
09:12 | Anduril’s $1.5B round pushes valuation to $14B
- Defense tech company
- Raised $1.5B, new valuation $14B
- Significant increase from $10B in Dec 2023
- Revenue doubled to $500M; 28x valuation multiple
- Funding led by Founders Fund, Sands Capital; new backers: Fidelity, Baillie Gifford
- Investment to expand "Arsenal" manufacturing platform; 5M+ sq ft for mass production of military systems
19:41 | AI use cases playing out
- JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs all announced live AI projects in the last two months
- Klarna replacing 70 employees per month with AI; headcount down from 4500 to 3700, $40m+ annual savings, more efficient and higher quality outcomes
- Businesses are adopting?!
- Agreed that usage will only increase from here? -
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WEBINAR ANNOUNCEMENT: AG Dillon will be hosting a webinar on August 14 at 1:30pm ET titled “How RIAs Can Invest into Venture Capital and Still Custody at Schwab”. Step by step details of investing into alternatives at Schwab and we’ll explore how AG Dillon venture capital funds are specifically designed to eliminate incremental RIA operational and administrative work when investing into alternatives. Register at www.agdillon.com/webinar.
Weekly pre-IPO reports…
- Valuations, revenue multiples, performance = www.agdillon.com/reports
- Market update pdf = www.agdillon.com/update
- Index fact sheet = www.agdillon.com/index
00:06 | Revolut's $45B Valuation with Employee Share Sale
- Online bank initiated $500M share sale at $45B valuation (secondary)
- Europe’s most valuable start-up
- Eligible employees (7,000 staff) can sell 20% of vested shares at $865.42/share
- Secured UK banking license; 9M UK customers, 45M globally
- 2023: £438M pre-tax profit, revenue almost doubled to £1.8B
- Valuation surged from $15B, Jan secondary market valuation, to $45B in 8 months (+200%)
01:19 | Anduril’s $1.5B Round Pushes Valuation to $14B
- Defense tech company
- Raised $1.5B, new valuation $14B
- Significant increase from $10B in Dec 2023
- Revenue doubled to $500M; 28x valuation multiple
- Funding led by Founders Fund, Sands Capital; new backers: Fidelity, Baillie Gifford
- Investment to expand "Arsenal" manufacturing platform; 5M+ sq ft for mass production of military systems
02:40 | Groq’s $640M Series D Boosts Valuation by 143%
- Semiconductor company focused on AI inference chips
- Raised $640M in Series D, valuation up to $2.8B (primary)
- 143% increase from Feb 2024 round
- Backed by Cisco, Samsung, BlackRock
- Funds to scale tokens-as-a-service and deploy 108,000 LPUs by 2025
- Aims to challenge Nvidia in AI chip market
03:18 | Google Acqui-hires Character.AI Team
- Custom AI chatbot company
- Google licensed Character.AI's technology in an acqui-hire deal
- Co-founders and some team members to join Google
- Character.AI’s valuation rose to $2.5B (secondary), up from $1B
- Company will operate independently with interim CEO Dominic Perella
- Users sent 371M messages to chatbots; introduced voice features
04:06 | Reddit Acquires Memorable AI
- Reddit’s first acquisition since IPO
- Acquired Memorable AI to enhance ad content with generative AI
- Memorable AI founded in 2021; optimizes ad effectiveness
- Reddit generates 98% of its revenue from ads ($804M in 2023)
- Terms of the deal not disclosed
04:42 | JPMorgan Rolls Out LLM Suite to 60,000 Employees
- JPMorgan Chase launched generative AI tool LLM Suite
- Tool assists with tasks like email writing, document summarization
- Rolled out to 60,000 employees; part of broader AI integration strategy
- Aims to boost productivity, avoid dependency on a single AI model provider
- Key for operations, including global payments business moving $8T daily
05:22 | Ola Electric Pops 20% on IPO
- Indian electric scooter company surged 20% on IPO
- Raised $731.6M, valuation $4.8B
- India’s largest IPO since May 2022
- Fiscal year revenue grew 90% to $603M; net loss of $191M
- Delivered 330,000 electric scooters, more than doubling sales
- Proceeds to fund capital expenditures and R&D
05:58 | Pre-IPO Stock Market Weekly Performance
- www.agdillon.com/reports for full pdf
06:29 | Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index Weekly Performance
- www.agdillon.com/index for pdf with constituent level performance by year -
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WEBINAR ANNOUNCEMENT: AG Dillon will be hosting a webinar on August 7 at 1:30pm ET titled An Introduction to the AG Dillon Top 10 Pre-IPO Stock Fund. Fund invests into the top 10 pre-IPO stock by valuation. Pre-IPO stock exposure to artificial intelligence, robotics, space economy, fintech, virtual/augmented reality in one fund. Pre-IPO Indexing delivers 450% cumulative returns over the last 20 yrs, on average*. Register at www.agdillon.com/webinar.
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Weekly pre-IPO reports…
- Valuations, revenue multiples, performance = www.agdillon.com/reports
- Market update pdf = www.agdillon.com/update
- Index fact sheet = www.agdillon.com/index
00:06 | Cerebras Targets October IPO
- AI semiconductor company
- Targeting IPO launch as soon as October
- Enlisted Barclays and Citigroup as lead banks
- Confidentially filed with the SEC
- 2021 funding round: $4B valuation (primary)
- Raised $250M in Series F
- Flagship system CS-3 for AI workloads
- Secondary market valuation: $5.4B (+26% vs Nov 2021 round)
01:01 | OpenAI Rolls Out Advanced Voice Mode
- AI large language model company
- Launching ChatGPT's Advanced Voice Mode
- Initially for ChatGPT Plus users, full rollout in fall 2024
- Features hyperrealistic audio responses, emotional recognition
- Tested by over 100 external red teamers
- Secondary market valuation: $105B (+22% vs Apr 2024 round)
01:54 | Harvey's $100M Series C Round
- AI startup for lawyers
- Raised $100M in Series C led by Google Ventures
- Total funding: $206M
- Valued at $1.5B (primary)
- Uses OpenAI's GPT-4 for legal tasks
- Annual recurring revenue and workforce tripled since December
03:08 | Canva Acquires Leonardo.ai
- Graphic design tech company
- Acquired Leonardo.ai to enhance AI tech stack
- Leonardo.ai to continue operating independently
- Canva's valuation: $28.4B (secondary)
- Over 19M registered users, 1B+ images generated
- Canva's revenue close to $2B with 180M monthly users
04:16 | Ramp's AI-Powered Financial Tools
- Business-focused fintech
- Uses AI to streamline financial processes for 25,000+ businesses
- Customers include Shopify and Boys and Girls Club of America
- AI capabilities: OCR for receipt matching, fraud detection, spend optimization
- Tripled annual recurring revenue and workforce since December
- Secondary market valuation: $8.8B (+15% vs Apr 2024 round)
05:44 | Anduril Secures Air Force Contracts
- Tech-focused defense contractor
- Developing prototypes for Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA)
- Expected production contracts by 2026
- CCA to perform strike, reconnaissance, electronic warfare missions
- Secondary market valuation: $15.5B (+11% vs May 2024 round)
06:45 | Airtable Acquires Dopt
- Productivity SaaS company
- Acquired Dopt to enhance AI capabilities
- Dopt to wind down service on August 15
- Airtable's AI group to integrate Dopt's team
- Launched Airtable Cobuilder for app creation via chat interface
- Secondary market valuation: $3.5B (-70% vs Dec 2021 round)
07:44 | Pre-IPO Stock Market Weekly Performance
- www.agdillon.com/reports for full pdf
- Pre-IPO +2.91% for week, +69.42% for last 1yr
- Up week: Snyk +80.2%, Notion +13.2%, Revolut +8.1%, Airtable 6.9%, Plaid 5.2%
- Down week: Hugging Face -16.1%, Groq -10.4%, Cohere -5.6%, Klarna -3.5%, ByteDance -2.5%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $286b, SpaceX $210b, OpenAI $105b, Stripe $70b, Databricks $44b
08:40 | Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index Weekly Performance
- www.agdillon.com/index for pdf with constituent level performance by -
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Subscribe to The Compound…
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Visit www.agdillon.com to learn more about AG Dillon Pre-IPO Stock Funds.
00:00 – Intro
00:48 – 2024 IPO Overview
06:00 – Current Pre-IPO Market Analysis
13:33 – Liquidity in the Private Pre-IPO Stock Market
13:41 – RIA Demand for Pre-IPO Stocks
14:37 – Two US Stock Markets; Public & Pre-IPO Market -
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Weekly pre-IPO reports…
- Valuations, revenue multiples, performance = www.agdillon.com/reports
- Market update pdf = www.agdillon.com/update
- Index fact sheet = www.agdillon.com/index
00:07 | Wiz walks away from $23B Google deal
- Cloud security company
- Opted for IPO over $23B Google deal
- Influenced by antitrust concerns
- Aims for $1B annual revenue; reached $350M last year
- 40% of Fortune 100 clients
- Valuation $13.1B (+9.1% vs May 2024)
- 37x revenue multiple; Google deal 65x
- Potential $20B IPO at 20x revenue
01:34 | Revolut's $45B valuation surge
- UK online bank
- Nearing $500M employee share sale
- Valuation up to $45B (previously $40B)
- Investors: Coatue Management, Tiger Global
- $429M net income in 2023, forecast $976M in 2024
- Revenue: $2.2B in 2023, projected $3.7B in 2024
- 20M customers (March 2024)
- Aiming for $9.3B revenue by 2026
- 17x revenue multiple
02:32 | Revolut secures UK banking license
- Secured UK banking license
- Can offer credit products, take deposits
- Serves 45M global customers, 9M in UK
- Previously relied on EU banking license
- "Mobilisation" phase, capped at £50K deposits for up to 12 months
03:22 | OpenAI launches SearchGPT
- AI large language model company
- Launching SearchGPT search engine
- Summarizes info, cites sources like WSJ
- Follow-up questions, linked sources
- Sidebar for more results
- Data: reputable news sources; e.g. News Corp, Axel Springer
- Valuation $103B (+20% vs Apr 2024)
04:04 | Cohere's $5.5B valuation boost
- AI large language model company
- Valued at $5.5B after $500M Series D
- Led by PSP Investments, new backers include Cisco, Fujitsu
- Doubled from $2.7B in 2022
- Annual revenue: $13M (2023) to $35M (March 2024)
- Headcount to double from 250
- Models support 10 languages
- Valuation $5.7B
05:17 | Goldman’s pre-IPO investment
- Goldman leading $540M investment in NEA's continuation vehicle
- Includes stakes in 11 companies: 38% Databricks, 10% Plaid
- Provides liquidity to NEA's partners
- Investors: Industry Ventures, Pathway Capital, Goanna Capital
- Priced at 19% discount to NEA valuations
- Highlights venture capital innovation
07:23 | Neuralink tender?
- Brain computer interface company
- Preparing stock buyback for employees, investors
- Valuation up to $8B (from $3.5B)
- Secondary market trades reflect 117% premiums
- Employees compensated in shares; trade at $50 (up from $35 in January)
- Prefers controlled tender offers
08:10 | Tesla to invest $5B in xAI?
- AI large language model business by Elon Musk
- Polled users on Tesla investing $5B in xAI
- Raised $6B, valuation $24B post-money
- X rumored to have 25% ownership
- Valuation $26.1B (+8.6% vs May 2024)
08:54 | Klarna replacing 70 employees per month with AI
- Consumer lender and payments company
- AI enhances efficiency across operations
- AI-driven customer service cut backlog from 30 days to zero
- Saved $40M; reduced 700 outsourced personnel
- AI handles 80% of marketing copywriting
- Headcount down from 4500 to 3700
- Increased cost per employee; higher salaries, more equity
- Valuation $10.7B (+60% vs Jul 2022)
11:27 | Pre-IPO Stock Market Weekly Performance
- www.agdillon.com/reports for full pdf
- Pre-IPO +0.30% for week, +63.28% for last 1yr
- Up week: xAI +8.8%, Stripe +5.7%, Anthropic +3.7%, Rippling +3.3%, Ramp +2.8%
- Down week: Groq -7.6%, Chime -7.5%, CoreWeave -4.2%, OpenAI -2.8%, Canva -1.3%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $294b, SpaceX $210b, OpenAI $103b, Stripe $70b, Databricks $44b -
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Weekly pre-IPO reports…
- Valuations, revenue multiples, performance = www.agdillon.com/reports
- Market update pdf = www.agdillon.com/update
- Index fact sheet = www.agdillon.com/index
00:07 | Stripe’s $70b valuation
- Online payments company
- Sequoia inter-fund transaction
- $27.51/share at $70b valuation, +7.7% vs its last round
- Sequoia LPs get liquidity, realized returns
- Emerging tech is staying private for longer
- Growth companies are private not public, time to allocate to pre-IPO stocks
01:41 | Revolut $40b valuation
- UK online bank
- Tiger Global to lead $40b round
- $2.2b 2023 revenue, 2x vs 2022
- $574m 2023 pretax profit vs -$33m in 2022
- 18.1x revenue multiple
- $25b secondary market valuation, +60% overnight return!
02:25 | Anthropic, Menlo launch fund
- Anthropic is AI large language model biz, Menlo is premier Silicon Valley VC firm
- $100m fund to invest into AI startups
- Menlo makes investment
- Anthropic provides AI LLM credits
- Anthropic = $22b secondary market valuation, +20% vs Jan 2024 round
03:22 | $267m for Human Interest
- 401k focused fintech
- 3 minutes to open 401k account
- 25,000 small business customers
- $100m in ARR
- 70% projected 2024 sales growth
- IPO planned within two years
04:03 | Tekion $4b valuation
- Automotive technology business
- $200m investment from Dragoneer
- Founder is former Tesla CIO, jay Vijayan
- 2025 to be 1st profitable year
- Other investors = Index Ventures, BMW i Ventures, Advent International
04:53 | Starlink approved in South Sudan
- SpaceX’s satellite internet business
- Only 36% of South Sudan citizens connected to internet
- SpaceX seeks official distributor in South Sudan
- $210b valuation based on current tender offer in process
05:44 | OpenAI GPT-4o Mini launched
- AI large language model business
- 4o Mini is 60% cheaper vs 4o proper
- 4o Mini is replacing GPT-3.5 Turbo
- Businesses like smaller models as they get job done but at lower expense
- Lower expense improves ROIs
- Watch for big earnings pop and acquisitions from businesses that implement AI
07:32 | Pre-IPO Stock Market Weekly Performance
- www.agdillon.com/reports for full pdf
- Pre-IPO +0.19% for week, +65.28% for last 1yr
- Up week: Revolut +8.0%, Chime +5.5%, Deel 4.4%, Ramp +3.4%, SpaceX 3.2%
- Down week: Cohere -11.2%, Epic Games -3.2%, Anduril -2.8%, Neuralink -2.4%, eToro -2.3%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $290b, SpaceX $205b, OpenAI $106b, Stripe $70b, Databricks $44b
08:23 | Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index Weekly Performance
- www.agdillon.com/index for pdf with constituent level performance by year
- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Rippling +107%, Revolut +68%, Anduril +51%, Klarna +46%, Epic Games +32%
- Key metric averages for all Vintage Indexes 5 years old or older…
445% cumulative return since inception
61% realized, distributed to investors
5.45 TVPI; 3.31 DPI, 2.14 RVPI
4.1 years to return the fund -
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Pre-IPO stock valuations = www.agdillon.com/reports
Pre-IPO weekly market update pdf = www.agdillon.com/update
Pre-IPO stock index fact sheet = www.agdillon.com/index
00:07 | Axiom Space, Gravitics space station deal
- Axiom Space, Gravitics develop space stations
- $125m deal to develop new space station
- Drive in-space manufacturing (new industry!)
- SpaceX rockets will deliver new space station to orbit
- Axiom Series C in Aug 2023 put the company at a $2.5b valuation
- Gravitics posted a seed round in Dec 2022 at a $100m valuation
01:41 | $50m for Athletic Brewing
- Non-alcoholic beer
- General Atlantic led
- 10th largest US craft brewery
- 19% non-alcoholic beer market share
- $90m 2023 revenue, 3m cases sold
- $800m valuation
- 40% of Americans … 49% millennials, 61% Gen Z … trying to drink less alcohol
02:25 | Neuralink second patient next week
- Brain computer interface company
- First patient, Noland Arbaugh (Jan 2024), can control a computer with just thoughts
- Goal is to mitigate chip “thread” retraction and improve thread placement
- $7.7b secondary market valuation, +122% vs its Nov 2023 round
03:22 | xAI kills Oracle deal
- AI large language model company
- Owned by Elon Musk, X owns 25%
- xAI was renting 24k Nvidia chips from Oracle
- Deal ended as xAI building 100k Nvidia chip facility in Tennessee
- $24b secondary market valuation, flat to its May 2024 round
04:03 | $270m “investment” fund from Shein
- Fast fashion company, direct to consumer
- $270m into UK/Europe to combat industry waste, support regional brands
- IPO expected on London Stock Exchange
- Headquartered in Singapore, developed market company?
- $66b valuation in its May 2023 Series G
04:53 | AGI test from OpenAI
- AI large language model business
- New test details exactly what an artificial general intelligence (AGI) is
- 5 “Levels”, OpenAI currently at Level 1
- Level 5 has AI performing organizational work, or AI has autonomous decision making
- CEO Altman believes AGI will be accomplished by 2030
- $105b secondary market valuation, +22% vs its Apr 2024 last round
05:44 | Apple, Microsoft off OpenAI board
- Microsoft is $13b investor in OpenAI
- OpenAI to power Apple Siri assistant
- US/EU regulators voices antitrust concerns
- Both companies recused themselves from board observer roles
- OpenAI plans to consistently meet with both in future, so no real change?
06:35 | 400% increase in SpaceX Starship launches
- Space payload delivery and satellite internet company (Starlink)
- Seek FAA approval to increase from 4 to 25 Starship launches
- Starship has 4x the payload capacity of the current Falcon 9 and 97% less expensive per launch ($2m vs $62m)
- $199b secondary market valuation, +10% vs its Jan 2024 round
- Note that SpaceX is currently closing a tender round at a $210b valuation
07:32 | Pre-IPO -0.23% for week, +62.79% for last 1yr
- www.agdillon.com/reports for full pdf
- Up week: Chime +13.6%, CoreWeave +8.5%, SpaceX +2.3%, Anthropic +1.8%, ByteDance +1.3%
- Down week: Groq -21.9%, Ramp -8.5%, eToro -2.0%, Notion -1.2%, Scale AI -1.0%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $289b, SpaceX $199b, OpenAI $105b, Stripe $78b, Databricks $44b
08:23 | 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index week performance
- www.agdillon.com/index for pdf with constituents level performance by year
- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Rippling +107%, Anduril +56%, Revolut +56%, Klarna +45%, Epic Games +37%
- Key metric averages for all Vintage Indexes 5 years old or older…
444% cumulative return since inception
61% realized, distributed to -
Send us a text
Pre-IPO stock valuations = www.x.com/aarongdillon (see pinned post)
Pre-IPO stock index fact sheet = www.agdillon.com/index
00:07 | Revolut revenue +95% yoy
- UK online bank
- $553m 2023 pre-tax revenue vs -$32m 2022
- $2.2b 2023 revenue, +95% vs 2022 ($1.1b)
- $638m 2023 interest income vs $106m 2022
- $638m 2023 customer loan book vs $260m 2022
- 45m customers as of Jun 2024, 12m added in 2023
- $23b secondary market valuation
- Out for a $40b primary round now, +75% vs secondary valuation
01:30 | Chime acquires Salt Labs
- US online bank
- Acquired Salt Labs, employee rewards platform
- Chime Enterprises will focus on driving deposits and payment volumes through employer relationships
- $6.6b secondary market valuation, -74% vs its Sep 2021 last round
02:32 | xAI announces new AI models
- Elon Musk AI large language model biz
- Grok 2 launching Aug 2024
- Grok 3 launching Dec 2024
- Grok 3 to be trained on 100,000 Nvidia H100 GPUs
- xAI has exclusive access to X/Twitter real-time date, a huge differentiator
- $23.8b secondary market valuation, flat from its May 2024 round
03:37 | Apple joins OpenAI board
- AI large language model biz (ChatGPT)
- ChatGPT will power Apple Siri
- Phil Schiller, head of Apple App Store, will observe at OpenAI board meetings
- $104b secondary market valuation, +21% vs its Apr 2024 round
04:20 | $300m for Thiel’s The Enhanced Games
- The Enhanced Games is Olympics + performance enhancing drugs
- Peter Thiel is an investor
- Raising $300m in debt, equity … valuation not disclosed
- 10 sports; freestyle swimming, 100m dash
- International Olympic Committee doesn’t approve (naturally)
05:12 | Klarna wins Adobe deal
- Payments and consumer credit company
- Klarna buy now pay later product offered to Adobe Commerce merchants
- 85% of merchants noted an increase in BNPL usage at online checkouts in 2023
- Other Klarna customers = Away, Uber, and Expedia
- $10.7b secondary market valuation, +60% vs its Jul 2022 round
06:13 | Kapoor new CPO at CoreWeave
- AI cloud provider
- Chetan Kapoor now chief product officer
- Kapoor was previously at Amazon Web Services
- $19.8b secondary market valuation, +4% vs its May 2024 round
07:17 | Apple, Alibaba AI models on Hugging Face
- AI developer solutions platform
- Apple adds 20 AI models, 4 data sets to Hugging Face
- Alibaba Qwen models now 3 of top 10 on Hugging Face LLM Leaderboard
- Hugging Face is the go to platform for AI developers
- $5.4b secondary market valuation, +20% vs its Aug 2023 round
08:13 | Groq wins Saudi Aramco deal
- AI chip and cloud service provider
- Huge Saudi Aramco deal win
- 70,000 AI developers registered, 19,000 AI applications running
- Groq LPUs for inference (vs Nvidia GPUs for training)
- LPUs faster responses, lower electricity use
- 42,000 LPUs in 2024, 1.5 million LPUs by Dec 2025
- $2.8b secondary market valuation, +147% vs its Feb 2024 round
- Note: Groq currently closing primary round at $2.5b
09:33 | Pre-IPO +0.29% for week, +62.29% for last 1yr
- Up week: Ramp +5.7%, Revolut +4.1%, Hugging Face +3.5%, CoreWeave +2.8%, SpaceX +2.8%
- Down week: Deel -2.7%, eToro -2.6%, Databricks -2.2%, Wiz -2.1%, Notion -1.4%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $285b, SpaceX $194b, OpenAI $104b, Stripe $79b, Databricks $44b
10:12 | 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index week performance
- www.agdillon.com/index for fact sheet pdf
- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Rippling +107%, Anduril +56%, Revolut +55%, Klarna +45%, Epic Games +37%
- Key metric averages for all Vintage Indexes 5 years old or old -
Send us a text
Pre-IPO stock valuations = www.x.com/aarongdillon (see pinned post)
Pre-IPO stock index fact sheet = www.agdillon.com/index
00:06 | MStanley OpenAI solution yields 2,800 more financial advisors
- “Debrief” acts as notetaker, summarizer, and 1st draft email composer for client meetings
- Powered by OpenAI ChatGPT-4
- Estimated 30 mins of advisor time saved per meeting
- Assume 1.5 hrs saved per day per advisor across 15,000 total MStanley advisors is equivalent to adding 2,800 new advisors to ranks
- Productivity gains to show in revenue, net income in 2025?
01:18 |OpenAI acquires Multi
- Multi allows developers to screenshare, work on code together
- OpenAI Enterprise division aims to integrate collaboration tools with OpenAI’s AI solutions
- Multi has 5 employees and raise only $13m, most of team will join OpenAI (acqui-hire)
- OpenAI Enterprise has 600,000 users, 93% of Fortune 500 companies
- OpenAI has a $105b secondary market valuation; +22% vs its last round in Apr 2024
02:30 | Parker, Schmidt invest into Stability AI
- AI image and video generation business
- Parker (ex-Facebook pres), Schmidt (ex-Google CEO), + others to invest $80m
- $100m in debt, $300m in cloud obligations negotiated away
- Prem Akkaraju (CEO) to provide a commercial strategy in 3 months
- Focus on Hollywood studios as customers
04:01 | SpaceX wins NASA/ISS contract
- International Space Station (ISS) to be decommissioned
- SpaceX won $843m contract to build the US Deorbit Vehicle to safely deorbit the ISS
- Deorbit occurs in 2030
05:04 | SpaceX tender now at $210b
- Current tender raised from $200b to $210b
- Last round was $180b ($97/share) to $210b ($112/share)
- Bloomberg reported 2024 revenue forecast to be $15b with Starlink delivering big revenue gains in the year
- At 20x revenue multiple that is $300b valuation
- $210b is a very attractive valuation, in our opinion
06:12 | Hyperplane acquired by Nubank
- Builds foundation AI models for banks re: risk, collections, and marketing
- Acqui-hire as Hyperplane just raised a $6m seed 7 months ago
- Nubank has $10.8b in ARR, serves 100m customers in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia
07:03 | Perplexity gets SoftBank investment
- AI search that competes with Google Search
- SoftBank to invest $10m to $20m at $3.0b valuation
- Part of a broader $250m round
- SoftBank to make $100b in AI investments
07:48 | Pre-IPO +0.77% for week, +63.08% for last 1yr
- Up week: Scale AI +19.1%, Stripe +3.0%, Chime +2.9%, Databricks +2.8%, Wiz +2.1%
- Down week: CoreWeave -2.8%, Anduril -2.3%, Revolut -1.8%, Notion -1.6%, SpaceX -1.5%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $285b, SpaceX $189b, OpenAI $105b, Stripe $78b, Databricks $45b
08:29 | 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index week performance
- www.agdillon.com/index for fact sheet pdf
- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Rippling +107%, Revolut +49%, Klarna +43%, Epic Games +36%, Anduril +27%
- Key metric averages for all Vintage Indexes 5 years old or older…
435% cumulative return since inception
62% realized, distributed to investors
5.35 TVPI; 3.31 DPI, 2.04 RVPI
4.1 years to return the fund -
Send us a text
00:16 - Photorealistic avatars
- Full pod at www.youtube.com/@thisweekinpreipostocks
- Tiktok avatars for advertising announced
- HeyGen round at $500m (built on top of OpenAI/ElevenLabs, $24/month subscription fee, 40,000 customers, $35m ARR in 2023)
- Dillon uses ElevenLabs to publish research video in chinese and Spanish
- Disruption in the entertainment industry by AI-generated content and avatars
18:42 - More secondary market dislocation
- Full pod at www.youtube.com/@thisweekinpreipostocks
- Revolut at $40b, secondary at $23b … 75% higher vs secondary
- UP dislocation: Scale AI closed $13.8b valuation, secondaries at $7.4b last week
- DOWN disclocation: Anduril targeting $12.5 valuation, secondaries at $13.2b and Groq targeting $3.0b valuation, secondaries at $4.4b
- Are secondaries misjudging company valuations or are companies “managing” their valuations
- Time between primary rounds is a factor to secondary market price accuracy
24:08 - Tender offers – good for companies, good for investors?
- Full pod at www.youtube.com/@thisweekinpreipostocks
- VCs need liquidity, DPI back to LPs (distribute cash back to investors)
- Employees need liquidity; options expire, life (house, wedding, kids in college, etc)
- Structured tenders (e.g. a tender every year or every 6 months) is smart; natural price for stock, no surprises/volatility once stock is public and out of blackout window
- Secondary funds are popping up all over the place … SecondaryLink highlights a new fund every week that is raising billions to buy these assets
- No IPO for Stripe? “…tenders to happen annually going forward…” -
Send us a text
Pre-IPO stock valuations = www.x.com/aarongdillon (see pinned post)
Pre-IPO stock index fact sheet = www.agdillon.com/index
Pre-IPO stock funds = www.agdillon.com/funds
00:06 | No IPOs for Stripe
- Online payments company
- Stripe co-founder, John Collison; Stripe will continue to do tenders in the future
- Two tenders in the last two years, perhaps one tender a year?
- Tender offers = no IPO on the horizon
- $76b secondary market valuation, +16% vs its last round in Feb 2024
01:03 | X as “everything app”
- X Payments being stood up now
- Approved in 28 states, aims to be live by Dec 2024
- X Payments will compete with Venmo, Cash App, Zelle
- No crypto
- Fidelity has X at a $12.5b valuation, ballpark 3x-4x revenue multiple
- Payments are foundational to be an everything app, we believe an X App Store is next
02:40 | Starlink Mini launched
- Starlink Mini is a compact version of standard satellite internet antenna
- Weighs 2lbs, 12x10x1.5 inches in size
- $599 for mini antenna, $150/month service fee
- Starlink has 6,000 satellites in orbit, 3m customers in 100 countries
- $192b secondary market valuation, +7% vs its last round in Jan 2024 … $200b tender announced expected to close late summer
03:55 | Cerebras AI chip IPO
- Hired Citigroup to lead IPO
- 2H 2024 for listing
- $4b+ IPO valuation, above last round in 2021
04:36 | SoftBank’s $100b for AI companies
- Goal is to deliver “artificial super-intelligence”, or ASI
- SoftBank owns Arm, AI chip maker
- SoftBank activity in the VC market led to the inflated valuations in 2021, could same happen now in AI ecosystem
05:17 | New Anthropic AI model
- AI large language model company
- Claude 3.5 Sonnet launching
- 2x as fast as Claude 3 Sonnet; excels in coding, text-based reasoning vs OpenAI GPT-4o
- Enterprise pricing = $3 per million tokens fed into the model, $15 per million tokens generated
- $1b 2024 revenue forecast
- $21b secondary market valuation, +18% vs its last round in Jan 2024
06:21 | HeyGen raised $60m
- AI-driven video content company
- $500m valuation
- Product = upload video of yourself, photorealistic avatar created, upload transcript, AI avatars reads as if you, translate to 40+ languages
- $24/month subscription fee
- 40,000 customers
- $35m ARR in 2023
- HeyGen builds on top of OpenAI and ElevenLabs (“last mile” AI app)
08:10 | Revolut tender at $40b!
- Morgan Stanley to bank tender offer
- $500m raise
- £1.7 billion 2023 revenue, +84% vs 2022
- $23b secondary market valuation, -31% vs its last primary round in Jul 2021
- Recent secondary market buyers stand to make a quick +75% return if $40b valuation holds
09:30 | Pre-IPO -1.07% for week, +65.20% for last 1yr
- Up week: Chime +22.3%, CoreWeave +19.3%, Wiz +13.1%, Cohere +11.3%, Scale AI +8.8%
- Down week: OpenAI -5.5%, Epic Games -4.0%, Deel -2.9%, Bytedance -2.1%, Notion -1.9%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $292b, SpaceX $191b, OpenAI $104b, Stripe $76b, Databricks $43b
10:27 | 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index week performance
- www.agdillon.com/index for fact sheet pdf
- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Rippling +106%, Revolut +52%, Epic Games +44%, Klarna +43%, Anduril +27%
- Key metric averages for all Vintage Indexes 5 years old or older…
3.31 distributed paid in capital
2.05 residual value to paid in capital
5.36 total value to paid in capital
4.1 years to return the fund -
Send us a text
Pre-IPO stock valuations = www.x.com/aarongdillon (see pinned post)
Pre-IPO stock index fact sheet = www.agdillon.com/index
00:07 | Mistral’s new $6.2b valuation
- French AI large language model company
- Raised $645m at $6.2b valuation
- General Catalyst led; Nvidia, Salesforce, IBM participated
- Capital to be used to expand globally
- Tech is compliant with new EU AI regulation
00:48 | OpenAI $3.4b ARR
- AI large language model provider, partnerships with Apple and Microsoft
- $3.4b ARR as of May 2024, $2.0b ARR in Dec 2023, $1.0b in Jun 2023
- Anthropic $100m ARR, Cohere $22m ARR
- OpenAI has a 25x revenue multiple
- $200m ARR from Microsoft partnership
- New products; search engine, video generating models
01:30 | OpenAI + Apple deal terms unveiled
- OpenAI’s ChatGPT to be integrated into iPhones, iPads, Macs
- No Apple to OpenAI payment
- Apple believes brand and product exposure to Apple’s millions of customers is more valuable
- Users will need an OpenAI subscription for some Apple interface use cases; both OpenAI and Apple will make incremental revenue
- Apple deal is not exclusive; in talks with Google Gemini and Anthropic
02:21 | OpenAI new CFO, CPO
- Sarah Friar new CFO; Nextdoor holdings CEO, Square CFO, current Walmart board member
- Kevin Weil new CPO; Instagram, Twitter, Planet Labs PBC
- Focus on driving international revenue growth and enterprise customer revenue growth
- $103.8b secondary market valuation, +21% vs its Apr 2024 round
03:15 | Brex revenue +35% in 2023
- Online banking company for businesses
- Restructured leadership; co-CEO to Franseschi sole CEO, Dubugras as chairman
- Raised over $1.5b in capital
- 30,000 business customers; DoorDash, Roblox
- 20% staff reduction in 2024
- Reduced cash burn by 50%, extends runway 4 yrs
- 2023 revenue +35%, gross profit +75%
- $3.8b secondary market valuation, -69% vs its Jan 2022 round
04:18 | Investment case for electricity?!
- PG&E, California electric utility, reports 3.5 gigawatts of incremental electricity demand from 24 new data centers
- Equal to output of 3 nuclear power plants
- New data centers coming in next 5 yrs
- Electricity demand to grow 2% to 4% annually through 2040
- Electricity stands to be an incredible investment opportunity
05:19 | Databrick’s new chart/graph tool
- Data management, analytics, and AI company
- Launching AI/BI, a new visualization tool
- Competes with Salesforce Tableau, Microsoft Power BI
- AI/BI = uses AI to create charts/graphs via typed queries
- AI/BI is free to Databricks users, vs Saleforce/Microsoft which have fees
06:12 | Databricks revenue +60% vs 2023
- $2.4b ARR forecast as of Jun 2024, +60% vs 2023
- $1.6b in 2023 full year revenue, +50% vs 2022
- 221 sales deals over $1.0m
- Net revenue retention +140%
- R&D is 33% of revenue over last 3yrs
- 80% subscription gross margin over last 3yrs
- $400m ARR from data warehouse product
- $42.8b secondary market valuation, -1% vs its Nov 2023 round
07:17 | Pre-IPO +2.56% for week, +71.53% for last 1yr
- Up week: Chime +22.3%, CoreWeave +19.3%, Wiz +13.1%, Cohere +11.3%, Scale AI +8.8%
- Down week: OpenAI -5.5%, Epic Games -4.0%, Deel -2.9%, Bytedance -2.1%, Notion -1.9%
- Top valuations: ByteDance $292b, SpaceX $191b, OpenAI $104b, Stripe $76b, Databricks $43b
07:54 | 2024 Pre-IPO Stock Vintage Index week performance
- www.agdillon.com/index for fact sheet pdf
- 2024 Vintage Index top contributors since inception: Rippling +106%, Revolut +52%, Epic Games +44%, Klarna +43%, Anduril +27%
- Key metric averages for all Vintage Indexes 5 years old or older… -
Send us a text
SHEIN to IPO at $64b, pre-IPOs future impact on public market indexes
- Online fashion retailer, manufactures cloths in China
- $64b IPO valuation
- Net income = $2b 2023, $700m 2022, $1.1b 2021 ; Revenue = $45b 2023 ; 1.4x revenue multiple, very low!
- Secondary market activity for Shein is very low, high volatility … $80m in bids, $85m in offers (per ApeVue)
- MSCI EAFE Index once public? Headquartered in Singapore, manufactures in China, customers in US/Europe (not China)
- Great example of how large pre-IPO finally going public impact indexes … Shein would be #71 in MSCI EAFE Index between Anheuser-Busch Inbev and London Stock Exchange Group
- S&P 500 is going to look very different in 10 years time; pre-IPOs going public, new companies that haven’t even started yet … technology is moving fast
Cohere new round, how many AI LLM platforms winners?
- AI large language model
- $5b valuation, +127 vs Jun 2023 round
- $35m ARR in Mar 2023, +169% vs prior year
- Strategic partnership with Oracle
- How many AI “platforms” will there be? 2 like apps; Apple and Android? OpenAI, Microsoft, Google? Apple has a competitive advantage with its access to personal data?
- AI application layer is an interesting investment opportunity but not enough companies in the market yet
- Future: proprietary data paired with AI models will drive usefulness of AI applications (Apple calls this “context”)
OpenAI wins Apple Siri deal, +14% on news
- OpenAI +14% to $110b valuation on news, last round at $86b in early Q2
- ChatGPT to power Siri
- Deal terms not disclosed
- Apple to OpenAI data privacy concerns
- Quality of use cases/applications will drive users to accept data sharing requests
- Most useful applications of AI will not even be notices by users, natural integration - Mehr anzeigen
