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Indonesian activity in the South China Sea is increasing as the country builds its own military bases in disputed waters while ferreting out Chinese fishing vessels that intrude into their EEZ. Is this another conflict that adds to an already tense theatre? Chinese industrial overcapacity has seen protectionist actions by members of the Global South, what does this mean for Chinese ambitions as a leader of this group and its own domestic concerns? Pope Francis was in Southeast Asia, praising the diversity and social harmony in the region, what lessons can the rest of the world take from the experiences of the Southeast Asian nations in building diverse societies?
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Two articles published in prominent foreign policy magazines from well-known observers of international affairs of the Asia-Pacific. Ryan Haas in his article suggested that US planning policies on the basis of peaked China is not a good idea. Second article is a letter from Singapore to the next US president urging the US to stopped being so obsessed with being number 1.
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Japan PM Kishida steps down and opens up new leadership contest within the LDP. Is it 'plus ca change' in the case of Japanese politics? Clan politics seem to be the name of the game in two Southeast Asian countries -- Thailand and Indonesia. Thailand's new PM is the formerly exiled Thaksin Shinawatra's daughter and the Shinawatra family seem to be on the mend with other significant actors in Thailand. Indonesia's outgoing president Jokowi was supposed to be the outsider but now seems to be ensuring that his family/clan will be signficant insiders in Indonesian politics. Lastly, NZ PM Chris Luxon gave an important foreign policy speech in Sydney. So now that Luxon talks the talk, the question remains is can he also walk the walk considering the difficult economic situation NZ finds itself in today.
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The US election in November is creating lots of anxieties globally. Despite the excitement with the Kamala Harris candidacy, questions remain about what is likely to happen the day after the first Tuesday of November. What does a Harris presidency mean Asia-Pacific? What does a second Trump administration mean for international relations of Asia-Pacific?
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Theories of international relations have been constructed from experiences of continental Europe. Yet, in the Asia-Pacific it seems like a uneasy fit because of the complex geography of the region. In this episode, Dr Kelly Grieco of the Stimson Center in Washington DC explains to us her research on geography and its implications to coalition-building in the Asia-Pacific region.
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UK foreign minister David Lammy visits India very early into the new Labour government term in the hopes of resetting UK-India relations and mark by a focus on the importance of trade and economics. Trump in an appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists made a controversial comment on presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris' Black and Indian dual identities. Trump's comment shows an ignorance of identity code-switching. Lastly, global central banks seem to feel that the worse of pandemic era inflation is at an end but when to start moving interest rates downward is still more art than science.
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US President Joe Biden has dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and VP Kamala Harris is in the race. Is this the shot in the arm that the Democrats are looking for? Will the Democrats be able to retain the White House? Deadly riots in Bangladesh due to student protests on job quotas. Is there more to these riots that what meets the eye? Japan reported a 15th year of population decline. What are the implications of continued shrinking population? NZ PM Luxon has been on the job less than 12 months and already his approval ratings have dropped. Why? Paris Olympic has started and even before the Olympic flame has been lit in the opening ceremony, a spying scandal involving the Canada's women football team has dented the idea of 'fair play' that the Olympics stand for.
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Indian Prime Minister Modi visits Putin in Moscow. Is India playing both sides or is this what is called 'strategic autonomy?' Days before the Republican National Convention, there was an attempted assassination of ex-president Donald Trump who is also the Republican presidential nominee. In the RNC convention, Trump selected a young Ohio politician who seems to be a younger version of Trump. Meanwhile Democrats are trying to advise Biden to drop out of his reelection bid...which he did on Sunday...that surprised his VP Kamala Harris who he has endorsed as the Democratic nominee.
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We discuss the fallout of the Biden/Trump debate for our region, is Plan B now Plan A? Putin and Kim Jong-Un signed a mutual defense pact, what are the implications for regional security? ISEAS study that re-analysed the Southeast Asian survey and inferred that China's power is recognised but feared meanwhile NYT article suggests that US is a more humble superpower in China's neighbourhood of the Asia-Pacific.
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What is independent about NZ's independent foreign policy? Is it myth or reality? Is it tautological? Does using the term prevent true discussion of NZ's foreign policy direction? Modi's response to a congratulatory message from Taiwan's president drew the expected protest from the PRC. Are there meanings behind these overtures? Saudi and US are ending a 50-year long agreement to price Saudi oil in US dollars and Saudi's commitment to use its oil revenues to purchase US Treasury bonds. This news barely made the headlines! What are the implications?
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This episode begins with our impressions of the just concluded Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore. India's election results are in and Modi's party requires the support of other parties to form a majority. What are the implications of this surprising election outcome? North Korea has been flying trash balloons across their southern border and now a response from the South Koreans.
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India's election is seeing dangerous rhetoric of anti-Muslim and heightened Hindu nationalism as well as the spectacular claims of Modi speaking to God. In a speech at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, has Philippine president Bongbong Marcos inadvertently drew a red line in the Philippine-China skirmishes in the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea)? Did it just raise the temperature in these skirmishes? Ex-US president Trump is now a convicted felon being found guilty of all 34 counts in the 'hush money' trial in New York. This throws another 'monkey wrench' to an already worrying campaign period leading up to the November election. What are the implications to the legitimacy of American political institutions and future of American democracy as we know it? Rishi Sunak is having it tough after he called for UK general election. Is the Sunak government grasping for straws to prevent the likely wipeout?
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Excellent essay on the macroeconomic limits of US exceptionalism and what it means for the increasingly protectionist global trading regime and the resurgence of mercantilism. Is the US undermining the rules based order that it was a chief architect and proponent of in the post-WW2 period? A rain-drenched UK PM Rishi Sunak announced an earlier than expected general election date in the courtyard of 10 Downing Street. Is this an omen for a Conservative washout in the July general election?
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Lord Cameron calls UK to out-cooperate, out-compete, and out-innovate in foreign affairs. What does it mean in action? Xi rolls out the red carpet for Putin. Is this still a partnership of equals? India has been accused by Australia for operating a spy network. India acting like a great power? A small town mayor in the Philippines is suspected of being a Chinese spy...but that is not all...the story gets stranger.
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A May 2, 2024 article published in Foreign Affairs examines the problem of misunderstanding of the Asian states and how they position themselves in the context of great power competition. This fundamental misread of the Asian states is showing in the 'one size fits all' foreign policies of major powers towards Asia...particularly Southeast Asia. In an April 2024 publication of the prestigious academic journal - Democratization - the Varieties of Democracy team shares an excellent presentation of the state of world today and shows that liberal democracies are challenge.
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Norway's deputy foreign minister rebuts accusations about double-standard in foreign policy of Western countries and argues that at least in the case of Norway they have tried to be consistent in their foreign policy. Is it easier for smaller states to be consistent? Is it more difficult for major powers engaging in multiple issue dimensions to be consistent so that they appear double-standard? Do values trump interest? Or should interest dominate all international political actions? In a recent excellent episode of Freakonomics podcast program focused on a discussion with Fareed Zakaria of whether we are living in the most revolutionary period in human history. We share our individual take on the thought-provoking episode.
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Iran retaliates against Israel for bombing its Damascus consulate. Will this expand the Middle East conflict? How does it impact on the Indo-Pacific region? What does it mean for international order? What does it say about the hegemon's management of the international order? Biden administration has doubled-down on the trade policies that started with Trump. In a recent trip to China, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen blasted China for its industrial overcapacity. US is even considering banning Chinese electric vehicle imports in name of national security. On top of that, US are requiring exporters to provide a no-China input certificate for products sold to the US. Are we now in a post-globalization world? Have we entered a new era of mercantilism and beggar thy neighbor in this 21st century? What does it mean to global peace and stability?
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ISEAS of Singapore released its recent State of the Southeast Asia 2024 Survey Report that is available from their website. We chat about some of the interesting findings from this longitudinal public opinion poll. We also give an update to the big news items that we are following since the start of 2024.
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ISIS launched a terror attack in Moscow and Russia failed to heed warnings given by the US. Non-state actors are rearing its ugly head on global politics again at a time when appetite for global cooperation is low. China's economy is stagnating but the reform required to switch its economy to be domestic demand driven is hard to come by. India wanted to create a new democracy index as its rankings in global democracy index continues to drop. Lastly, Trump is now peddling a 'God Bless the USA' bible that seems to be a direct appeal to evangelical voters.
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